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October2010 Quarterly Report to Congress

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October2010 Quarterly Report to Congress FOCUS ON MOSUL FOCUS ON MOSUL Background Sunni Arab Situated on the banks of the Tigris with a Kurdish population of approximately 1.6 million Tel-Kaif District Kurdish/Sunni Arab Mix people, Mosul is the largest city in north- Turkmen Shabak 235 ern Iraq. Founded several centuries Christian Al-Hamdaniyah District before the Common Era near the site of the ancient city of Ninevah, Mosul’s Mosul District geographic position has placed it at the MOSUL crossroads of empires for almost three Mosul City Ninewa millennia. Mosul’s present-day diverse Mosul City ethnic composition reflects the myriad cultures—Arab, Kurdish, Persian, Turk- ish—that have influenced the city from its inception. Current estimates suggest that Sunni Arabs make up about 70% of Ninewa Mosul’s population, Kurds 25%, and a polyglot mixture of Turkmen, Yazidis, ChristianArabs,andotherscomprising Source: PRTNinewa,responsetoSIGIRdatacall,10/19/2010. the remainder.236 Council Seats Won in Ninewa, Historically,Mosulwasoneofthepri- resulted in the Sunni-dominated parties 2005 vs. 2009 mary administrative centers in northern andtheirallieswinning22ofthe37seats Mesopotamia, serving as the capital of the on Ninewa’s council, while the Kurdish 80% Ottoman province that bore its name.237 Ninewa Brotherhood secured only 12.241 70% IntheaftermathofWorldWarI,theBrit- Mosul’sSunniArabsalsodisplayed 60% ish joined together the Ottoman province theirstrengthintheMarch2010elections 50% withprovincescenteredonBaghdadand for the Council of Representatives. Ayad 40% Basrah to form the new country of Iraq. Allawi’s largely Sunni al-Iraqiya bloc won 30% Today,MosulisthecapitalcityofNinewa 20 of Ninewa’s 34 seats, and bloc member 20% 10% province, which has an estimated popula- Mosul-based Osama al-Nujaifi won the 0% tion of 2.8 million.238 third-highestvotetotalofanycandidate Shia Sunni Kurd Other ontheprovincialballot,behindonlythe 2005 Election Results 2009 Election Results % of Province Population current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki 242 Sources: UNAMI, Elections Results, Issue No. 30, 2/2009; Elections andformerPrimeMinisterAllawi. GOI, IHEC, www.ihec.iq/arabic, accessed 2/22/2009 (SIGIR translation); U.S. Embassy-Baghdad, response to SIGIR In2005,IraqconducteditsfirstPro- Consequently, Mosul’s Sunni community data call, 4/2/2009. vincial Council elections, which were will be well represented in the broader boycotted by most Sunni Arabs. Only national political conversation in the 14%ofNinewa’seligiblevotersturned yearstocome. outtocastballotsinthoseelections.239 The Sunni boycott skewed the results inseveralethnicallymixedprovinces, Security including Ninewa, where the Kurdish Mosul’s Sunni Arab orientation and minority captured 31 of the 41 Provin- its strategic location near Iraq’s long- cial Council seats.240 Four years later, the rebellious Kurdish territories made it a results were very different. A marked natural northern bastion for the Ba’athist increase in Sunni Arab participation regime. In many respects, Mosul under Residents conduct business in downtown Mosul. OCTOBER 30, 2010 I REPORT TO CONGRESS I 59 Oct10_forTOC.indb 59 10/25/2010 10:58:36 AM FOCUS ON MOSUL Mosul Security Time Line, 2003−2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 April September December February · Iraq’s Mosul-based 5th Interim governor of Ninewa Mosul sustains an average · U.S. and Iraqi units begin“Operation Corps surrenders to U.S. province assassinated. of 15 attacks per day. New Hope,”raiding insurgent special forces. January strongholds in Mosul. · Kurdish Peshmerga November · Massive bomb ·“Operation Ninewa Resolve”begins, forces enter Mosul and · Second Battle of Falluja sends destroys apartment establishing permanent security posts in secure key government insurgents fleeing to Mosul. building in western neighborhoods cleared of insurgents. buildings. · Mosul police force collapses August Mosul, inflicting more after insurgents storm several Several car bombs than 300 casualties. January−March July police stations. Severe fighting explode in Yazidi villages · Ninewa’s provincial Multiple attacks on Uday and Qusay Hussein ensues between insurgents and west of Mosul, killing police chief killed by Mosul’s Christian killed by Coalition forces Coalition forces, backed by more than 300 and suicide bomber in community cause in their Mosul safe house. Peshmerga units. wounding over 700. Mosul. many to flee the city. Some U.S. and ISF units Early Spring− Coalition forces dismantle several Mosul-based shift from northern 2007 Summer insurgent networks, but others take refuge in Iraq to Baghdad. 2007 Mosul after being pushed north out of Baghdad. January March May October August Task Force Olympia Shia funeral procession Approximately 200 Widespread · Car bombing replaces the 101st in Mosul bombed, armed gunmen attack violence against outside Mosul Airborne in Ninewa killing more than 40. Ninewa province’s Mosul’s Christians. mosque kills province, reducing the main jail. May about 30. number of Coalition · ISF and Coalition units · Shia village near forces there by about half. January−February launch“Operation Lion’s Mosul bombed, April Coalition and ISF reinforcements Roar,”targeting insurgent killing more than 24. · Spate of looting incidents severely damages banks, begin to arrive in Mosul. networks in Mosul City and universities, and hospitals. Ninewa province. August · U.S. 101st Airborne Division (under then-Major March · ISF and Coalition units Governor of Ninewa General David Petraeus) enters Mosul. Chaldean Catholic Archbishop launch“Operation Mother province survives of Mosul murdered. of Two Springs”to clear out assassination insurgents in central Mosul. attempt. Note: This time line is intended to highlight selected major events since April 2003. It is not intended to be a comprehensive account of events over the past seven years. Sources: Institute for the Study of War, “The Fight for Mosul,” www.understandingwar.org/files/reports/Iraq%20Report%208.pdf, accessed 9/21/2010; International Crisis Group,“Iraq’s New Battlefront: The Struggle over Ninewa,” Middle East Report No. 90—9/28/2009, www.aina.org/reports/inbtson.pdf, accessed 9/24/2010; SIGIR analysis of open-source Arabic- and English-language documents. the Ba’athists was the quintessential Mosul to infiltration by al-Qaeda in Iraq garrison town. One report estimates andotherSunniextremists.Between2004 thatMosulanditsenvironscontributed and 2007, Mosul was wracked by wide- more than 300,000 residents to the se- spread insurgent violence.247 High-profile curity apparatus of the Ba’athist state.243 attacksoccurredwithregularity,andno TwoyearsafterthetopplingofSad- one was immune—not even the second dam’sstatueinFirdosSquare,greater post-war governor of Ninewa province, Mosulwashometoanestimated1,100 who was assassinated in mid-2004.248 former Iraqi generals and more than AsinmuchofIraq,securityinNinewa 100,000 former Iraqi Army soldiers of province has improved significantly Shopping district in Mosul City. other ranks, providing fertile recruiting since2007.AccordingtoISFstatistics, ground for the growing insurgency.244 approximately 4,000 attacks occurred in continued violence. Of the 8,000 police Following the fall of Saddam, Kurdish August 2007, 500 in August 2008, 125 in desired by provincial officials for Mosul, Peshmerga irregulars, supported by Co- August 2009, and 70 in August 2010.249 only about 700 have been hired, and alitiontroops,seizedcontroloftheMosul Butviolenceremainsadailyfactoflifein only about 350 are getting paid.251 area and remained a dominant force Mosul City, with recent incidents appear- thereuntil2008.In2005,accordingto ing to target ISF members, in contrast to oneKurdishgeneral,80%ofthesecurity the indiscriminate marketplace bomb- High Unemployment forces in Mosul—and three of the four ings of years past.250 Since 2003, many Mosul residents have brigadier generals—were Kurds.245 Many The Iraqi Police have begun to assume fallen on hard times, and the city’s Arab residents of Mosul resented Kurdish control of parts of Mosul from the Iraqi economy has struggled. In meetings policies during these years, perceiving Army;yetinconversationswithSIGIR, with SIGIR officials this quarter, the them as efforts to “Kurdicize” Mosul.246 Ninewaofficialscitedashortageoflocal Ninewa Investment Commission esti- The Arab population’s hostility opened policeasonefactorcontributingtothe mated unemployment at 30% and spoke 60 I SPECIAL INSPECTOR GENERAL FOR IRAQ RECONSTRUCTION Oct10_forTOC.indb 60 10/25/2010 10:58:39 AM FOCUS ON MOSUL Monthly Security Incidents in Ninewa, 1/2004–8/2010 thatbringpowertothecity,andanattack 600 this quarter on the Mosul Gas power Security Incidents, 500 Reported by USF-I planthaltedservicetherefortwodays.To and GOI mitigate these shortages, many residents 400 Security Incidents, Reported by MNC-I have purchased generators.253 300 200 State-owned Enterprises 100 There are 11 state-owned enterprises 0 (SOEs) based in Mosul, primarily in the 20042005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 manufacturing sector.254 Acloserlook Note: Beginning in April 2009, USF-I began supplying SIGIR with security incident totals reported by both USF-I and the GOI. at two SOEs illustrates their continued Sources: MNF-I, responses to SIGIR data calls, 10/6/2008 and 7/2/2009; CENTCOM, responses to SIGIR data call, 1/10/2009 and importance to the local economy and 2/22/2010; USF-I, responses to SIGIR data call, 3/31/2010 and 4/1/2010. theprofoundchallengesthatconfront Selected Security Incidents in the Mosul Area,
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