FOCUS ON

FOCUS ON MOSUL

Background Sunni Arab Situated on the banks of the Tigris with a Kurdish population of approximately 1.6 million Tel-Kaif District Kurdish/Sunni Arab Mix people, Mosul is the largest city in north- Turkmen Shabak 235 ern . Founded several centuries Christian Al-Hamdaniyah District before the Common Era near the site

of the ancient city of Ninevah, Mosul’s

geographic position has placed it at the MOSUL crossroads of empires for almost three Mosul City Ninewa millennia. Mosul’s present-day diverse Mosul City ethnic composition reflects the myriad cultures—Arab, Kurdish, Persian, Turk- ish—that have influenced the city from its inception. Current estimates suggest that Sunni make up about 70% of Ninewa Mosul’s population, 25%, and a polyglot mixture of Turkmen, ,

ChristianArabs,andotherscomprising Source: PRTNinewa,responsetoSIGIRdatacall,10/19/2010. the remainder.236 Council Seats Won in Ninewa, Historically,Mosulwasoneofthepri- resulted in the Sunni-dominated parties 2005 vs. 2009 mary administrative centers in northern andtheirallieswinning22ofthe37seats Mesopotamia, serving as the capital of the on Ninewa’s council, while the Kurdish 80% Ottoman province that bore its name.237 Ninewa Brotherhood secured only 12.241 70% IntheaftermathofWorldWarI,theBrit- Mosul’sSunniArabsalsodisplayed 60% ish joined together the Ottoman province theirstrengthintheMarch2010elections 50% withprovincescenteredonBaghdadand for the Council of Representatives. Ayad 40% Basrah to form the new country of Iraq. Allawi’s largely Sunni al-Iraqiya bloc won 30% Today,MosulisthecapitalcityofNinewa 20 of Ninewa’s 34 seats, and bloc member 20% 10% province, which has an estimated popula- Mosul-based Osama al-Nujaifi won the 0% tion of 2.8 million.238 third-highestvotetotalofanycandidate Shia Sunni Kurd Other ontheprovincialballot,behindonlythe 2005 Election Results 2009 Election Results % of Province Population current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki 242 Sources: UNAMI, Elections Results, Issue No. 30, 2/2009; Elections andformerPrimeMinisterAllawi. GOI, IHEC, www.ihec.iq/, accessed 2/22/2009 (SIGIR translation); U.S. Embassy-, response to SIGIR In2005,IraqconducteditsfirstPro- Consequently, Mosul’s Sunni community data call, 4/2/2009. vincial Council elections, which were will be well represented in the broader boycotted by most Sunni Arabs. Only national political conversation in the 14%ofNinewa’seligiblevotersturned yearstocome. outtocastballotsinthoseelections.239 The Sunni boycott skewed the results inseveralethnicallymixedprovinces, Security including Ninewa, where the Kurdish Mosul’s Sunni Arab orientation and minority captured 31 of the 41 Provin- its strategic location near Iraq’s long- cial Council seats.240 Four years later, the rebellious Kurdish territories made it a results were very different. A marked natural northern bastion for the Ba’athist increase in Sunni Arab participation regime. In many respects, Mosul under Residents conduct business in downtown Mosul.

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Mosul Security Time Line, 2003−2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

April September December February · Iraq’s Mosul-based 5th Interim governor of Ninewa Mosul sustains an average · U.S. and Iraqi units begin“Operation Corps surrenders to U.S. province assassinated. of 15 attacks per day. New Hope,”raiding insurgent special forces. January strongholds in Mosul. · Kurdish November · Massive bomb ·“Operation Ninewa Resolve”begins, forces enter Mosul and · Second Battle of Falluja sends destroys apartment establishing permanent security posts in secure key government insurgents fleeing to Mosul. building in western neighborhoods cleared of insurgents. buildings. · Mosul police force collapses August Mosul, inflicting more after insurgents storm several Several car bombs than 300 casualties. January−March July police stations. Severe fighting explode in Yazidi villages · Ninewa’s provincial Multiple attacks on Uday and Qusay Hussein ensues between insurgents and west of Mosul, killing police chief killed by Mosul’s Christian killed by Coalition forces Coalition forces, backed by more than 300 and suicide bomber in community cause in their Mosul safe house. Peshmerga units. wounding over 700. Mosul. many to flee the city.

Some U.S. and ISF units Early Spring− Coalition forces dismantle several Mosul-based shift from northern 2007 Summer insurgent networks, but others take refuge in Iraq to Baghdad. 2007 Mosul after being pushed north out of Baghdad.

January March May October August Task Force Olympia Shia funeral procession Approximately 200 Widespread · Car bombing replaces the 101st in Mosul bombed, armed gunmen attack violence against outside Mosul Airborne in Ninewa killing more than 40. Ninewa province’s Mosul’s Christians. mosque kills province, reducing the main jail. May about 30. number of Coalition · ISF and Coalition units · Shia village near forces there by about half. January−February launch“Operation Lion’s Mosul bombed, April Coalition and ISF reinforcements Roar,”targeting insurgent killing more than 24. · Spate of looting incidents severely damages banks, begin to arrive in Mosul. networks in Mosul City and universities, and hospitals. Ninewa province. August · U.S. 101st Airborne Division (under then-Major March · ISF and Coalition units Governor of Ninewa General David Petraeus) enters Mosul. Chaldean Catholic Archbishop launch“Operation Mother province survives of Mosul murdered. of Two Springs”to clear out assassination insurgents in central Mosul. attempt.

Note: This time line is intended to highlight selected major events since April 2003. It is not intended to be a comprehensive account of events over the past seven years.

Sources: Institute for the Study of War, “The Fight for Mosul,” www.understandingwar.org/files/reports/Iraq%20Report%208.pdf, accessed 9/21/2010; International Crisis Group,“Iraq’s New Battlefront: The Struggle over Ninewa,” Report No. 90—9/28/2009, www.aina.org/reports/inbtson.pdf, accessed 9/24/2010; SIGIR analysis of open-source Arabic- and English-language documents.

the Ba’athists was the quintessential Mosul to infiltration by al-Qaeda in Iraq garrison town. One report estimates andotherSunniextremists.Between2004 thatMosulanditsenvironscontributed and 2007, Mosul was wracked by wide- more than 300,000 residents to the se- spread insurgent violence.247 High-profile curity apparatus of the Ba’athist state.243 attacksoccurredwithregularity,andno TwoyearsafterthetopplingofSad- one was immune—not even the second dam’sstatueinFirdosSquare,greater post-war governor of Ninewa province, Mosulwashometoanestimated1,100 who was assassinated in mid-2004.248 former Iraqi generals and more than AsinmuchofIraq,securityinNinewa 100,000 former soldiers of province has improved significantly Shopping district in Mosul City. other ranks, providing fertile recruiting since2007.AccordingtoISFstatistics, ground for the growing insurgency.244 approximately 4,000 attacks occurred in continued violence. Of the 8,000 police Following the fall of Saddam, Kurdish August 2007, 500 in August 2008, 125 in desired by provincial officials for Mosul, Peshmerga irregulars, supported by Co- August 2009, and 70 in August 2010.249 only about 700 have been hired, and alitiontroops,seizedcontroloftheMosul Butviolenceremainsadailyfactoflifein only about 350 are getting paid.251 area and remained a dominant force Mosul City, with recent incidents appear- thereuntil2008.In2005,accordingto ing to target ISF members, in contrast to oneKurdishgeneral,80%ofthesecurity the indiscriminate marketplace bomb- High Unemployment forces in Mosul—and three of the four ings of years past.250 Since 2003, many Mosul residents have brigadier generals—were Kurds.245 Many The Iraqi Police have begun to assume fallen on hard times, and the city’s Arab residents of Mosul resented Kurdish control of parts of Mosul from the Iraqi economy has struggled. In meetings policies during these years, perceiving Army;yetinconversationswithSIGIR, with SIGIR officials this quarter, the them as efforts to “Kurdicize” Mosul.246 Ninewaofficialscitedashortageoflocal Ninewa Investment Commission esti- The Arab population’s hostility opened policeasonefactorcontributingtothe mated unemployment at 30% and spoke

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Monthly Security Incidents in Ninewa, 1/2004–8/2010 thatbringpowertothecity,andanattack 600 this quarter on the Mosul Gas power Security Incidents, 500 Reported by USF-I planthaltedservicetherefortwodays.To and GOI mitigate these shortages, many residents 400 Security Incidents, Reported by MNC-I have purchased generators.253 300

200 State-owned Enterprises 100 There are 11 state-owned enterprises 0 (SOEs) based in Mosul, primarily in the 20042005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 manufacturing sector.254 Acloserlook Note: Beginning in April 2009, USF-I began supplying SIGIR with security incident totals reported by both USF-I and the GOI. at two SOEs illustrates their continued Sources: MNF-I, responses to SIGIR data calls, 10/6/2008 and 7/2/2009; CENTCOM, responses to SIGIR data call, 1/10/2009 and importance to the local economy and 2/22/2010; USF-I, responses to SIGIR data call, 3/31/2010 and 4/1/2010. theprofoundchallengesthatconfront Selected Security Incidents in the Mosul Area, 7/15/2010−9/30/2010 them as they struggle to adapt to a free- market economy. July • Northern Cement State Company. Saturday, July 17: 3 Iraqi Army soldiers wounded by two IEDs. Monday, July 19: Suicide car bomber strikes British security company convoy, killing at least 4 people. The six cement plants in Mosul have a Thursday, July 22: Imam shot and killed outside his home; IED kills 3 civilians. Saturday, July 24: 2 police officers shot dead while manning checkpoint; hand-grenade attack on marketplace total production capacity of 3.7 million wounds at least 16 civilians. Wednesday, July 28: 1 ISF soldier shot and killed in western Mosul. tons per year. They employ about 4,000 people.Butduetoalackofelectric- August Monday, August 2: IED kills 1 Iraqi Army officer south of Mosul. ity, the plants produce only about Wednesday, August 4: IED wounds 2 Iraqi police officers. 1.5million tons per year. Five of the 10 Friday, August 6: ISF soldiers defuse bombs planted under electricity transmission towers south of Mosul. Sunday, August 8: Governor of Ninewa province survives assassination attempt; 2 people killed and several productionlineshavestoppedworking wounded; hand-grenade attack on market wounds approximately 9. Monday, August 9: Two IED attacks on ISF convoys injure 8 soldiers. because of power shortages. Notwith- Thursday, August 12: 1 Iraqi Army soldier killed and 2 injured in attack on checkpoint in western Mosul. standing these problems, the Northern Sunday, August 15: IED attacks kill 2 police officers and wound 3 others. Thursday, August 19: 1 Police officer shot and killed in western Mosul; IED attack on judges’ motorcade incentral Cement State Company is one of only Mosul results in no casualties; subsequent IED attack at the same location wounds several ISF personnel. twoSOEsintheprovincecapableof Saturday, August 21: Gunmen kill 1 police officer in western Mosul. Wednesday, August 25: Car bomb in western Mosul kills several and wounds 20. paying employees out of the revenue it Friday, August 27: Iraqi police defuse IED planted near investigative judge’s house north of Mosul. generates (instead of relying on subsi- 255 September dies from the central government). Friday, September 3: IED attack injures 2 Iraqi Army soldiers in western Mosul; IED attack kills 1 police officer. • Textiles SOE. Four companies operate Wednesday, September 8: Gunmen kill 1 television journalist in eastern Mosul. Thursday, September 9: ISF frees 2 kidnapped businessmen and detains 3 of the captors. as part of this SOE, each with a differ- Wednesday, September 15: 1 Ministry of Electricity employee assassinated in southern Mosul. Monday, September 20: 1 Police officer shot and killed in central Mosul. ent specialty: textiles, sewing, gauze, Tuesday, September 21: Three IEDs detonate in western Mosul, killing and injuring more than 12 police officers. and cotton. The SOE employs about Friday, September 24: Suicide bomber shot by police outside mosque; 1 police officer reported killed. Saturday, September 25: IED detonates near police patrol, wounding 4. 5,000 individuals, and until 2008, it Monday, September 27: 3 killed and 10 injured in a series of attacks in Mosul. wasabletomeetabout50%ofpayroll Note: The security incidents cited above are intended to provide a sense of the types of violence occurring in the greater from revenue it generated through Mosul area this quarter. This is not intended to be a comprehensive list of all security incidents. sales. But according to its director, a Sources: SIGIR analysis of open-source Arabic- and English-language documents. flood of cheap imports undercut the products’ ability to compete, and the of the large segment of underemployed places province-wide demand at 1,900 enterprise now relies primarily on sub- Iraqisintheprovince.252 MW, but estimates that Ninewa only sidiesfromtheMinistryofIndustry drawsabout460MW–500MWfromthe andMineralstopayitsemployees.256 Electricity Shortages national grid. Hospitals, water plants, and Check Economic Growth the cement factories receive priority, which A Challenging Investment Ninewa province has struggled to keep has led to Mosul residents sometimes Environment pace with the rising demand for electrici- receivingaslittleas4hoursofpowerin Mosul’sstruggletotransformits ty that has swept Iraq since 2003. The pro- a 24-hour period. Moreover, insurgents economy from one dominated by the vincial Director General for Transmission continue to target the transmission towers public sector to one capable of attracting

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domestic and foreign investment capital African, and Angolan firms have all Local officials estimate that 250,000 new illustrates in microcosm many of the either invested in Mosul or are actively housing units will be needed over the problems faced by the rest of Iraq. The contemplating doing business there.258 next five years, but that only about 20,000 Ninewa Investment Commission reports are currently under construction.262 that it has approved 29 joint investment Banking projects for the province, pairing local Mosul’s banking sector remains underde- businesses with international investors. veloped. Officials from one private Iraqi Humanitarian Situation Nine projects, valued at about $50 mil- bank based in Mosul report that while Thepersistentinstabilityinand lion, are currently underway, including customer deposits doubled between 2007 around Mosul has caused many ahousingcomplex,amall,amaternity and 2009, strict guarantee requirements residents to flee their homes in search hospital,andaluxuryhotel.Asforthe andsystemicinefficiencieskeepoverall of safety. Earlier this year, the UN 20 projects that have been approved but bankingactivityrelativelylow.259 reported that more than 5,000 peo- haveyettobreakground,thecommis- AccordingtolocalIraqifinanciers, ple—including a significant number sion cites these reasons for delays:257 as of September 2010, only about 3,500 of Christian families—were displaced • Security concerns. Local officials loans, with an aggregate principal from Mosul.263 reported to SIGIR that the perception amountof$25million,wereoutstand- U.S. assistance to minority (for ex- of Mosul as a hotbed of insurgent inginNinewaprovince—orabout$8.93 ample, Arab Christian) communities in violence adversely affects their ability per resident.260 As one Mosul banker Ninewa province is currently earmarked to attract foreign companies. The remarked to SIGIR this quarter, local at about $10 million.264 PRT Ninewa multitude of ISF checkpoints that people generally just do not deposit uses these funds to support a variety of dot the city also make it difficult to theirmoneyinbanks,preferringtokeep sustainable initiatives, including local conduct daily business, often turning cashonhandtodealwiththemyriad agricultural projects and programs short trips into day-long excursions. contingencies they may encounter on intended to assist small businesses.265 • Bureaucracy. The sclerotic nature of any given day.261 However, additional high-profile U.S. thevariouspermittingandapproval assistance explicitly earmarked for processes causes lengthy delays in Housing Ninewa’s minorities could potentially moving projects from the planning Mosul’seconomicdevelopmentisalso engender resentment on the part of the phase to implementation. inhibited by a persistent housing shortage. province’s Sunni Arab and Kurdish • Uncertainlandtitle.Incomplete or missingdeedsandproperty-trans- Mosul IDP Movement, 2/2010–3/2010 Families Displaced action records often preclude parties from knowing who owns a particular Dahuk 44 parcel of land. Dahuk • Corruption. The scourge of corrup- tion damages the investment environ- 109 ment, and the Mosul commission Ninewa said it is taking steps to streamline the Tal-Usquf 52 approval process for foreign investors Batnay 48 andtoencouragetheactivitiesofthe Tel-Kaif 50 localCommissionofIntegrityoffice. 120

Notwithstanding these challenges, Mosul Bartalah 68 theProvincialReconstructionTeam Krmales 38 (PRT)inNinewareportedthatsev- 210 Ainkawa 72 eral U.S.-based companies, including IDP Origin (Mosul) General Electric, have recently sent IDP Destination delegations to Mosul to explore invest- Namrud 35 20 Familes to ment opportunities. Moreover, Span- ish, Turkish, Italian, Canadian, South Source: UN, OCHA, “Iraq: Displacement in Mosul,” Situation Report No. 3, 3/6/2010.

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population if the United States were self-sufficiency and also remains ready to USF-IsupportforPRTNinewais perceived as favoring certain religious or assist local authorities in other matters scheduledtoendinJune2011.Atthat ethnic groups at the expense of others. on an “as requested” basis.266 time, DoS will become responsible for TheAABalsosupportsongoing securing the PRT’s successor organiza- reconstruction programs and provides tion, which is expected to be opera- U.S. Presence and Programs securityescortforPRTNinewa’s60per- tionalinIraqforanotherthreetofive As of September 2010, Ninewa prov- sonnel. The PRT reported making about years.AliaisonfromDoS’sDiplomatic incefallswithintheU.S.3rdInfantry 12 trips per week (8 from its Mosul office Security Service is currently working Division’s area of operations, with and 4 from its Tellafar branch office) to with the military to plan for an effective elements of the 2nd Advise and Assist oversee project activities this quarter. transition.268 Several USAID programs Brigade (AAB) stationed in Mosul. The About$30millioninCERP-,QRF-,and will also continue work in the Mosul 2nd AAB works with local Iraqi Army USAID-funded projects are currently area to develop local communities, and police units to help them achieve ongoing in the province.267 improve governance capacity, institute modern agriculture techniques, and U.S.-funded Infrastructure Projects in Mosul, Tel-Kaif, provide microfinance lending for small- and al-Hamdaniyah Districts business initiatives. $ Millions Since2003,theUnitedStateshas U.S. Expenditures, by Project Category expended more than $600 million on % of $600.07 reconstruction projects in the Mo- ISFF Defense Forces ($126.52) 21% Electrical ($97.95) 16% sul area, the greatest expenditures ISFF Interior Forces ($78.65) 13% going to support the Iraqi Security PW & Water ($71.82) 12% Forces. As of September 30, 2010, the Security & Justice ($70.10) 12% United States had expended more than Transportation ($45.60) 8% $45milliononprojectsattheMosul Education ($25.02) 4% U.S. Expenditures, by Fund Total: $600.07 Dam—the largest reconstruction effort Peacekeeping ($23.73) 4% ESF $29.58 International Development ($19.78) 3% in Ninewa province. 3% CERP ISFF Health ($19.51) $163.56 $205.17 Private Sector Development ($10.31) 2% Buildings ($5.19) 1% SIGIR Oversight Communication ($4.16) 1% Since 2006, SIGIR has conducted on-site Oil ($1.74) 0% IRRF inspectionsof12U.S.-fundedproj- $201.77 Note: Numbers affected by rounding. ectsintheMosularea,whichincludes

Source: IRMS, Global Benchmark, 9/3/2010. the districts of Mosul, Tel-Kaif, and al-Hamdaniyah.◆ USAID Program Activities

Local Since 2003, the LGP has been working to assist the governor’s office to improve Governance financial management and oversight of capital projects, prepare budgets, Program implementcivil-servicereforms,andimprovewaterandwastewaterservices. (LGP) Other LGP activities have supported the Provincial Council in developing legislation, reviewing and inspecting provincialprojects,anddevelopingafive- year provincial development plan. Community The latest phase of this USAID program, CAP III, has completed four projects in Action Mosul,valuedcollectivelyat$335,916.Theseprojectsfundedconstructionofasports Program facilityandmulti-purposehall,aswellasexpansionofthelocalelectricalnetwork (CAP) andrehabilitationofthepotablewatersystemfortheBa’asheqasubdistrict. Provincial Economic USAIDhasfundedthreemicrofinanceinstitutionsintheMosularea.Asof Growth September30,2010,theseinstitutionshadprovidedacombinedtotalof464 Program Small-andMedium-Enterprise(SME)loans,valuedat$1,032,749. (Tijara) Inma Since 2007, the Inma agriculture program has expended approximately $3 million foractivitiestodevelopfarmingcapacityintheMosularea.USAIDprovidedfeed and seed, as well as training in greenhouse production, irrigation, and business management for local farmers. SIGIRofficialsmeetwithGOIofficialsinMosul, Source: USAID,responsetoSIGIRdatacall,10/4/2010. September 2010.

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SIGIR Oversight in Mosul Area Assessment Project Name/ Met Contract Number Funds Contractor Specs

SIGIR PA-06-034 MosulAirTrafficControlTowerandNavigationalAids Local Yes 4/2006 $10,329,474 (IRRF) SIGIR PA-06-035 Ninewa Village Roads Segment 3 Local Yes 4/2006 $1,119,476 (IRRF) SIGIR PA-06-072 Ninewa Provincial Police Headquarters Local No 10/2006 $1,000,000 (IRRF) Mosul Airport Tower SIGIR inspectors determined SIGIR PA-06-073 BabEshtarSubstation11-kVFeederCable Local Yes that this $10.3 million IRRF 10/2006 $1,220,000 (IRRF) projecttoconstructthe SIGIR PA-06-091 Bab Shams Police Station air-traffic control tower Local No 4/2007 $353,400 (IRRF) and an adjoining 2-story administration building was SIGIR PA-06-092 Gaugli-Ashur Police Station adequately designed and Local Yes 4/2007 $881,188 (IRRF) progressing consistent with contract objectives. The SIGIR PA-07-105 ReliefandReconstructionFundedWorkatMosulDam Multiple No contractor’s high-quality 10/2007 $27,100,000 (IRRF) Contractors concrete operations contrib- SIGIR PA-07-106 Right Bank Drinking Water Treatment Plant Rehabilitation uted significantly to the suc- Local Yes 10/2007 $1,714,233 (CERP) cessful outcome, and USACE quality assurance represen- SIGIR PA-07-107 Showairrej to Tak Harb Road Paving Local Yes tatives were on site every 10/2007 $1,439,175 (CERP) day managing work, which SIGIR PA-07-108 Bartilla New Road Paving took place on an active Local Yes 10/2007 $147,560 (CERP) runway.Thisprojectserved as an excellent example for SIGIR PA-07-109 Bartilla Booster Pump Station Repair Local No sustainment of U.S. projects, 10/2007 $237,000 (CERP) providing one-year warran- ties for installed equipment SIGIR PA-09-183 Hammam Al Alil Regional Training Center Local Yes 1/2010 $5,028,566 (ISFF) andoperations,spareparts, and training.

Mosul Dam Hammam Al Alil Regional Training Center Twoyearsintoaprojecttoimproveacritical SIGIR’sinspectionconcludedthatthis grouting system at the Mosul Dam, SIGIR $5 million ISFF project to construct facilities inspectors found that $27 million of the IRRF for2,400Iraqisoldiersmetdesignstan- had yet to significantly improve basic capabili- dards and was proceeding according to tiesfortheIraqiMinistryofWaterResources. contract specifications. Work included de- SIGIR’s review of 21 contracts associated with sign and construction of 15 buildings and the project uncovered indications of fraud, associated latrines, as well as installation of whichwereforwardedtoSIGIRinvestiga- (USACE photo) water,electricity,andwastesystems.SIGIR tions. As of September 30, 2010, the United States had invested more than foundsustainmentplanningadequateandnotedthatgovernment $45millionattheMosulDamunder49contracts. quality assurance personnel were performing well.

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