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Office Briefing 1Q 2019 Metro Manila | Office Briefing

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Office Briefing 1Q 2019 Metro Manila | Office Briefing KMC Research Metro Manila Office Briefing 1Q 2019 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Metro Manila Office Submarkets Future Stock (2022) DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE (2019-2022) CURRENT STOCK MAP 1 785,650 sq m 380,109 sq m QUEZON CITY C5 CORRIDOR 1,237,333 sq m 530,286 sq m ORTIGAS CENTER MAKATI FRINGE 460,540 sq m GREATER ORTIGAS 1,352,783 sq m MAKATI CBD NAIA 2,137,714 sq m BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 1,045,336 sq m BAY AREA 400,860 sq m MCKINLEY METRO MANILA CITIES QUEZON CITY SAN JUAN CITY CITY OF MANILA MANDALUYONG CITY 641,351 sq m MAKATI CITY PASIG CITY ALABANG PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY LAS PIÑAS CITY 2 1Q 2019 Metro Manila GRAPH 1 ■ With only 63,300 sq m of additional Grade Stock & Vacancy A office supply in the first quarter, the overall vacancy rate in Metro Manila sustained its steady pace at 5.1%. Meanwhile, net absorption sunk to Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Stock Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Vacancy Rate its two-year low at 42,600 sq m, dragged by the 7,000 14% poor performance in Quezon City 6,000 12% ■ The office sector should continue to exhibit 5,000 10% strength despite around 876,000 sq m of GLA 4,000 8% slated to come online this year – a historical high for Metro Manila. More than half of the new '000 sq (GLA) m 3,000 6% supply in 2019 is forecasted to come from BGC, 2,000 4% Ortigas Center and the Bay Area. 1,000 2% ■ The Philippine Online Gaming Operator (POGO) sector continues to grow after taking up another 0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 76,000 sq m of office space in the Bay Area alone in 2018 or almost half of the new supply in Source: KMC Savills Research the submarket last year. However, this is slower GRAPH 2 compared to what was observed in 2017 of Supply & Take-Up around 166,000 sq m. The sector is expected to sustain its momentum as it starts to expand its foothold into different submarkets which should Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Supply Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Take-Up 1,000 boost demand for office space in the short to medium term. Additionally, the O&O sector is still expected to occupy a huge portion of the Grade 800 A office stock in Metro Manila as current locators continue to operate and expand in the capital 600 and other emerging cities around the country. '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 400 ■ With these factors in play, overall rental rates increased by 5.1% YoY in 1Q/2019 on the back 200 of newer buildings commanding higher rents in BGC and Ortigas Center. However, the large 0 volume of new supply in the coming quarters 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F should prove challenging. Landlords of older buildings may have difficulty leasing out their Source: KMC Savills Research vacancies amidst the entry of better-quality stock. TABLE 1 BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY Key Figures - Grade A Office 1Q 2019 Makati Ortigas BGC Alabang Quezon City Bay Area CBD Center Average net rental rate 1,107.9 981.6 697.0 674.9 744.7 833.7 (Php/sq m/month) Upper net rental rate 1,600.0 1,250.0 875.0 750.0 800.0 950.0 (Php/sq m/month) Vacancy rate (%) 3.0% 5.2% 1.1% 1.3% 19.4% 0.7% Current stock (sq m) 1,191,611 1,749,047 601,857 492,942 693,601 702,648 Development pipeline 197,872 388,667 635,476 148,410 92,048 342,687 2019-2022 (sq m) * Makati CBD includes Premium Offices kmcmaggroup.com/research | 3 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Makati CBD GRAPH 3 GRAPH 4 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Stock Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Supply Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Take-Up 1,400 7% 120 1,200 6% 100 1,000 5% 80 800 4% 60 600 3% 40 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 400 2% 20 200 1% 0 0 0% -20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 5 GRAPH 6 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Makati CBD Rental Growth, YoY Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Rental Index 120 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 100 140 20% 120 10% 80 100 0% 60 80 -10% sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 =3Q 100 40 60 -20% 20 40 -30% 0 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ The Makati CBD maintained its low vacancy rate at 3.0% in 1Q/2019 even with the addition of 36,700 sq m from Ayala North Exchange Tower Two. ■ The premier business district continues to dominate in terms of average rental rate as it closed the quarter with PHP1,107.9 per sq m / month, growing at a stable pace of 4.5% YoY. ■ Although there are no expected completions in Makati CBD for the remainder of the year, tight conditions in the submarket could persist while subsequently driving rents higher in the coming quarters. 4 1Q 2019 Bonifacio Global City GRAPH 7 GRAPH 8 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Stock Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Supply Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Take-Up 2,400 8% 400 2,100 7% 1,800 6% 300 1,500 5% 1,200 4% 200 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 900 3% sq (GLA) '000 m 600 2% 100 300 1% 0 0% 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 9 GRAPH 10 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Bonifacio Global City Rental Growth, YoY Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Rental Index 300 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 180 40% 160 30% 140 20% 200 120 10% 100 0% 80 -10% '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 =3Q 100 100 60 -20% 40 -30% 20 -40% 0 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ The completion of Avida Capital House contributed 26,600 sq m to total stock, which prompted vacancies to inch up marginally to 5.2% in 1Q/2019. ■ Rents in BGC expanded by 5.5% YoY to PHP989.3 per sq m / month – due to the demand shifting to newer buildings with above-average rental rates. ■ BGC is expected to welcome 248,300 sq m of new Grade A office space in the coming quarters which may put pressure on vacancies. Nevertheless, rental rates could rise regardless of the incoming supply due to the robust occupier demand. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 5 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Ortigas Center GRAPH 11 GRAPH 12 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Ortigas Center Grade A Office Stock Ortigas Center Grade A Office Supply Ortigas Center Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Ortigas Center Grade A Office Take-Up 1,200 18% 250 1,000 15% 200 800 12% 150 600 9% 100 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 400 6% 50 200 3% 0 0 0% -50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 13 GRAPH 14 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Ortigas Center Rental Growth, YoY Ortigas Center Grade A Office Rental Index 250 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 140 20% 200 120 10% 150 100 0% 100 80 -10% sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 =3Q 100 60 -20% 50 40 -30% 0 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Sustained occupier demand from the O&O sector was observed in Ortigas Center as vacancies contracted further to 1.1% from 2.0% in 4Q/2018. ■ Consequently, the tight market conditions during the quarter pushed rents to grow by 4.5% YoY at PHP699.3 per sq m / month. ■ Ortigas Center is expected to receive an additional supply of around 636,000 sq m of office space until 2022. Accordingly, this could cause a surge in vacancies and possibly stagnate rental growth over the following quarters. 6 1Q 2019 Alabang GRAPH 15 GRAPH 16 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Alabang Grade A Office Stock Alabang Grade A Office Supply Alabang Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Alabang Grade A Office Take-Up 800 20% 100 80 600 15% 60 400 10% 40 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 200 5% 20 0 0% 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 17 GRAPH 18 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Alabang Rental Growth, YoY Alabang Grade A Office Rental Index 100 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 140 20% 80 120 10% 60 100 0% 40 80 -10% sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 =3Q 100 60 -20% 20 40 -30% 0 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Despite having no new completions in the submarket, the vacancy rate tightened further to 1.3% in 1Q/2019, compared to the 1.4% recorded in 4Q/2018.
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