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KMC MM Office Briefing 1Q2020

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KMC Research Metro Manila Office Briefing 1Q 2020 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Metro Manila Office Submarkets Future Stock (2023) DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE (2020-2023) CURRENT STOCK MAP 1 843,546 sq m 416,392 sq m QUEZON CITY C5 CORRIDOR 1,217,214 sq m 576,733 sq m ORTIGAS CENTER MAKATI FRINGE 460,540 sq m GREATER ORTIGAS 1,408,830 sq m MAKATI CBD NAIA 2,214,714 sq m BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 1,169,972 sq m BAY AREA 439,947 sq m MCKINLEY METRO MANILA CITIES QUEZON CITY SAN JUAN CITY CITY OF MANILA MANDALUYONG CITY 647,387 sq m MAKATI CITY PASIG CITY ALABANG PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY LAS PIÑAS CITY 2 1Q 2020 Metro Manila GRAPH 1 ■ The upheaval brought by COVID-19 across Stock & Vacancy the globe continues to test the strength of the real estate sector in the Philippines. Since the implementation of the Enhanced Community Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Stock Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Vacancy Rate 8,000 12% Quarantine (ECQ), the immediate market consequences have been nothing but short of dramatic. While the long-term effects remain 6,000 9% uncertain, the industry is beginning to embrace the new status quo. The O&O sector may still come on top while cost-savings will become key 4,000 6% business priorities in the coming quarters. '000 sq m (GLA) Overall vacancy managed to sustain its stable 2,000 3% ■ rate at 5.5% in 1Q/2020 – mostly thanks to a muted new supply of only 36,500 sq m during 0 0% the quarter. We expect construction delays 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F to push completion dates of several buildings Source: KMC Savills Research onto the latter half of the year. With the ongoing suppression of the pandemic, we do not foresee GRAPH 2 them being fast tracked. Supply & Take-Up ■ Prior to the recent disruption, average rents Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Supply improved by 3.6% YoY to PHP 1,022.8 per sq m Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Take-Up 1,000 / month due to the continued tight conditions in Makati CBD and BGC. Surprisingly, Quezon City 800 has gained footing as the submarket progressed to attract more occupiers. 600 ■ We expect office demand to hit a slump in the '000 sq m (GLA) 400 coming quarters as companies accommodate a workforce that chooses to work from home. However, the magnitude will depend on how long 200 current circumstances will pan out. With leasing activity forecasted to slow down and present 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F an increase to overall vacancies, downward pressure on rental growth for the remainder of the Source: KMC Savills Research year may occur. TABLE 1 BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY Key Figures - Grade A Office Makati Ortigas Quezon 1Q 2020 Unit BGC Alabang Bay Area CBD Center City PHP/sq m 1,149.0 1,036.8 696.5 697.0 758.0 872.3 Average net rental rate USD/sq ft 2.09 1.89 1.27 1.26 1.38 1.58 PHP/sq m 1,600.0 1,400.0 900.0 725.0 825.0 950.0 Upper net rental rate USD/sq ft 2.92 2.55 1.64 1.32 1.50 1.73 Vacancy rate % 1.7% 3.0% 14.2% 4.5% 11.9% 3.7% Current Stock sq m 1,191,611 1,829,458 759,357 551,299 739,051 872,157 Development Pipeline sq m 217,219 385,256 457,857 96,089 104,495 297,815 2020-2023 * Makati CBD includes Premium Offices kmcmaggroup.com/research | 3 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Makati CBD GRAPH 3 GRAPH 4 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Stock Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Supply Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Take-Up 1,400 7% 120 1,200 6% 100 1,000 5% 80 800 4% 60 600 3% '000 sq m (GLA) 40 '000 sq m (GLA) 400 2% 20 200 1% 0 0 0% -20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 5 GRAPH 6 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Makati CBD Rental Growth, YoY Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Rental Index Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 120 160 30% 100 140 20% 120 10% 80 100 0% 60 '000 sq (GLA) m 3Q 2007 = 100 3Q 2007 80 -10% 40 60 -20% 20 40 -30% 0 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Makati CBD experienced another contraction in vacancies, down to 1.7% coming from 2.1% in 4Q/2019. This is attributable to the absence of new supply in the premier financial district during the quarter. ■ As such, average rents grew 3.7% YoY to PHP 1,149.0 per sq m / month. However, given the current condition, rental growth could stagnate in the coming quarters. ■ As organizations reevaluate workforce needs considering the evolving situation, we expect demand for office to be sluggish. Be that as it may, Makati CBD may be able to ride out the storm. The vacancy rate is expected to remain in low to mid-single digits by yearend. 4 1Q 2020 Bonifacio Global City GRAPH 7 GRAPH 8 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Stock Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Supply Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Take-Up 2,400 6% 400 2,000 5% 300 1,600 4% 1,200 3% 200 '000 sq m (GLA) '000 sq m (GLA) 800 2% 100 400 1% 0 0% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 9 GRAPH 10 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Bonifacio Global City Rental Growth, YoY Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Rental Index 300 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 180 40% 160 30% 140 20% 200 120 10% 100 0% '000 sq (GLA) m 3Q 2007 3Q = 100 80 -10% 100 60 -20% 40 -30% 20 -40% 0 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Due to several projects being delayed, BGC did not see any new completions during the quarter. As a result, vacancy rate shed another 30bps from the previous quarter of 3.3% to 3.0% in 1Q/2020. ■ Rental rates outperformed the rest of the submarkets as it registered a 4.8% YoY growth to PHP 1,036.8 per sq m / month during the quarter. For the coming quarters, growth is expected to plateau resulting from the impacts of COVID-19. ■ Although the pandemic is bringing massive threats across all types of businesses, unexpected opportunities might come about for flexible office solutions as part of companies’ business continuity plans (BCP). While this could stimulate leasing activity, it may not be enough to offset the adverse impact on the office market. Conditions will still be tight, but we do not discount a jump in the near term. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 5 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Ortigas Center GRAPH 11 GRAPH 12 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Ortigas Center Grade A Office Stock Ortigas Center Grade A Office Supply Ortigas Center Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Ortigas Center Grade A Office Take-Up 1,400 28% 350 1,200 24% 300 250 1,000 20% 200 800 16% 150 '000 sq m (GLA) '000 sq (GLA) m 600 12% 100 400 8% 50 200 4% 0 0 0% -50 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 13 GRAPH 14 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Ortigas Center Rental Growth, YoY Ortigas Center Grade A Office Rental Index Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 400 160 30% 140 20% 300 120 10% 100 0% 200 3Q 2007 = 100 3Q 2007 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 80 -10% 100 60 -20% 40 -30% 0 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Conditions in Ortigas Center continue to look depressed. Despite no new completions during the quarter, net absorption slipped to the negative territory which brought the vacancy rate to inch up to 14.2%. ■ The lack of PEZA-accredited buildings and the inflexibility of new building landlords posed a great challenge for net absorption in the submarket. As a consequence, average rents declined by 0.4% YoY to PHP 696.5 per sq m / month. ■ The major disruption brought by the pandemic is expected to alter market fundamentals in favor of tenants. Landlords are likely to be more aggressive in attracting and retaining tenants as office demand is expected to slacken. We do not foresee improvements in rental growth in the near term as vacancies continue to hover at double digits. 6 1Q 2020 Alabang GRAPH 15 GRAPH 16 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Alabang Grade A Office Stock Alabang Grade A Office Supply Alabang Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Alabang Grade A Office Take-Up 800 20% 100 80 600 15% 60 400 10% 40 '000 sq (GLA) m '000 sq m (GLA) 20 200 5% 0 0 0% -20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 17 GRAPH 18 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Alabang Rental Growth, YoY Alabang Grade A Office Rental Index 80 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 140 20% 60 120 10% 100 0% 40 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 3Q = 100 80 -10% 20 60 -20% 40 -30% 0 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ After nine consecutive quarters of vacancy rates settling at low single digits, Alabang CBD succumbed to negative net absorption.
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    ECC Issued FY 2014 ECC Reference Report Date Application Decision Name Proponent Document Status Series Code Type Received Date Date Alabang Town Center BPO 1 Alabang 1 ECC-NCR-1401-0001 ECC IEEC 1/6/2014 1/6/2014 1/16/2014 Approved Alabang Town Center, Brgy. Ayala, Commercial Corp. Alabang,, Muntinlupa, Metro Manila IBP Tower Ortigas and 2 ECC-NCR-1401-0003 Company Limited ECC IEEC 1/6/2014 1/6/2014 2/6/2014 Approved Julia Vargas Ave., Ortigas Center,, Partnershipp Pasig City, Metro Manila T-Park Project Fort Bonifacio 3 ECC-NCR-1401-0005 Development ECC IEEC 1/6/2014 1/6/2014 1/28/2014 Approved B18,L4, 26th, BGC,, Taguig, Metro Corporation Manila Vertis North Towers 4 ECC-NCR-1401-0006 Ayala Land, Inc. ECC IEEC 1/6/2014 1/6/2014 1/16/2014 Approved Vertis North Triangle, Brgy. Bagong Pag-asa,, Quezon City, Metro Manila Fortune Hill Project 5 ECC-NCR-1401-0008 Filinvest Land, Inc. ECC IEEC 1/6/2014 1/6/2014 1/20/2014 Approved 173 P. Gomez St.,, San Juan, Metro Manila Studio A Residential Condominium 6 ECC-NCR-1401-0009 Filinvest Land, Inc. ECC IEER 1/6/2014 1/6/2014 1/20/2014 Approved 99 Xavierville Ave., cor. E. Abada St., Loyola Heights,, Quezon City, Metro Manila Plastic Recycling Project 7 ECC-NCR-1401-0011 Sanplas Industries ECC IEEC 1/6/2014 1/6/2014 2/7/2014 Approved 6390 Tatalon St., Ugong,, Valenzuela, Metro Manila Shipbuilding and Repair Yard 8 ECC-NCR-1401-0013 Sas Shipyard, Inc.