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Metro Manila Office Briefing 4Q 2018 Metro Manila | Office Briefing

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Metro Manila Office Briefing 4Q 2018 Metro Manila | Office Briefing KMC MAGKMC Group Savills Research Research Metro Manila Metro Manila Office Briefing 4Q 2018 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Metro Manila Office Submarkets Future Stock (2022) DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE (2019-2022) CURRENT STOCK MAP 1 785,650 sq m 380,109 sq m QUEZON CITY C5 CORRIDOR 1,216,545 sq m 458,902 sq m ORTIGAS CENTER MAKATI FRINGE 460,540 sq m GREATER ORTIGAS 1,389,483 sq m MAKATI CBD NAIA 2,121,940 sq m BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 988,755 sq m BAY AREA 400,860 sq m MCKINLEY METRO MANILA CITIES QUEZON CITY SAN JUAN CITY CITY OF MANILA MANDALUYONG CITY 638,105 sq m MAKATI CITY PASIG CITY ALABANG PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY LAS PIÑAS CITY 2 4Q 2018 Metro Manila GRAPH 1 ■ Metro Manila saw 746,900 sq m of new Grade Stock & Vacancy A office completions in 2018 – roughly the same amount recorded in 2017. Net absorption was Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Stock significantly higher last year at 701,100 sq m Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Vacancy Rate 8,000 16% compared to 615,200 sq m recorded in 2017. As such, overall vacancies were kept at just 4.8% of 7,000 14% stock and is slightly higher than the 4.5% vacancy 6,000 12% rate the previous year. 5,000 10% ■ Rents in the capital have accelerated further, 4,000 8% hitting 5.0% YoY in 4Q/2018. The tight conditions '000 sq (GLA) m 3,000 6% coupled with contract expirations have propped higher bids in Makati CBD while subsequently 2,000 4% pushing up rents in the premier district. In addition, 1,000 2% rents in BGC are still on the uptrend as the strong 0 0% outsourcing and offshoring (O&O) demand raised 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F rentals further during the quarter. Source: KMC Savills Research ■ Quezon City received more than half of new GRAPH 2 supply in 4Q/2018 which raised its vacancy rate Supply & Take-Up to a ten-year high of 16.4% as occupier demand remained sluggish. This has dragged Metro Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Supply Manila’s performance during the quarter and Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Take-Up 1,000 may pull the office market further in the coming quarters. It has been a key outlier since 2016, 800 failing to follow other submarkets such as the Bay Area and Alabang which have reversed its course since then. 600 In the coming quarters, our eyes are on Ortigas '000 sq (GLA) '000 m ■ 400 Center which is expected to see 206,000 sq m of new Grade A office stock. We anticipate that 200 occupier demand in the CBD will struggle with the influx of office supply as it will consequently 0 raise total vacancies. However, we also forecast a 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F significant acceleration in rents in Ortigas Center as new supply improves the quality of its overall Source: KMC Savills Research stock. TABLE 1 BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY Key Figures - Grade A Office 4Q 2018 Makati Ortigas BGC Alabang Quezon City Bay Area CBD Center Average net rental rate 1,104.0 972.8 691.0 671.6 747.4 826.5 (Php/sq m/month) Upper net rental rate 1,550.0 1,250.0 850.0 725.0 825.0 950.0 (Php/sq m/month) Vacancy rate (%) 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.4% 16.4% 0.6% Current stock (sq m) 1,154,911 1,722,450 601,857 489,696 693,601 704,527 Development pipeline 234,572 399,490 614,687 148,410 92,048 284,228 2019-2022 (sq m) * Makati CBD includes Premium Offices kmcmaggroup.com/research | 3 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Makati CBD GRAPH 3 GRAPH 4 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Stock Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Supply Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Take-Up 1,400 14% 120 1,200 12% 100 1,000 10% 80 800 8% 60 600 6% 40 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 400 4% 20 200 2% 0 0 0% -20 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 5 GRAPH 6 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Makati CBD Rental Growth, YoY Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Rental Index 120 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 100 140 20% 120 10% 80 100 0% 60 80 -10% sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 =3Q 100 40 60 -20% 20 40 -30% 0 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ The vacancy rate in Makati CBD remained tight at 3.0% notwithstanding the completion of NEX Tower and a slower net absorption of 19,500 sq m compared to last quarter. ■ The premier business district has had very tight conditions since 2016, and we are seeing the effects with rents accelerating in 2018. Makati CBD registered a rental growth of 5.4% YoY in 4Q/2018, bringing average rents to PHP 1,104.0 per sq m / month. ■ For 2019, we expect further contraction in vacancies given the limited supply in the district’s pipeline. As a result, rents are still expected to further escalate since contract expirations are forecasted to drive higher bids given the limited availability of office space. 4 4Q 2018 Bonifacio Global City GRAPH 7 GRAPH 8 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Stock Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Supply Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Take-Up 2,400 24% 400 2,000 20% 300 1,600 16% 1,200 12% 200 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 800 8% 100 400 4% 0 0% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 9 GRAPH 10 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Bonifacio Global City Rental Growth, YoY Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Rental Index 300 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 180 40% 160 30% 250 140 20% 200 120 10% 100 0% 150 80 -10% '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 =3Q 100 100 60 -20% 40 -30% 50 20 -40% 0 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ The additional supply of 26,000 sq m from Asian Century Centre and the slower net take-up drove the vacancy rate higher to 5.0% in 4Q/2018 from 4.5% the previous quarter. ■ Despite the slack in vacancies, rents in BGC continued to grow at a healthy pace of 5.0% YoY resulting to PHP 972.8 per sq m / month on the back of stronger demand from the O&O sector. ■ In the coming quarters, we anticipate an upswing in vacancies due to the incoming 271,000 sq m of new supply expected to be completed in 2019. We still see rents growing in the coming quarters despite the incoming supply; although the increasing vacancies in the submarket should increase the risk of rents stagnating. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 5 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Ortigas Center GRAPH 11 GRAPH 12 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Ortigas Center Grade A Office Stock Ortigas Center Grade A Office Supply Ortigas Center Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Ortigas Center Grade A Office Take-Up 1,200 24% 300 1,000 20% 250 200 800 16% 150 600 12% 100 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 400 8% 50 200 4% 0 0 0% -50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 13 GRAPH 14 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Ortigas Center Rental Growth, YoY Ortigas Center Grade A Office Rental Index 300 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 250 140 20% 120 10% 200 100 0% 150 80 -10% sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 =3Q 100 100 60 -20% 50 40 -30% 0 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Market conditions in Ortigas Center improved as we saw a substantial decrease in vacancies amid no new completions in 4Q/2018. The submarket ended the year with a vacancy rate of 2.0% after net absorption rebounded to 51,700 sq m in 2018 compared to just 2,800 sq m in 2017. ■ Despite the tightening conditions, rental growth was still modest at 3.3% YoY and raising average rents to PHP 691.0 per sq m / month. ■ We may see double-digit vacancy rates in the coming quarters due to the large inflow of new supply from The Podium West Tower in 1Q/2019. Although elevated vacancies typically pull rental growth down, improvement in the quality of the overall stock in Ortigas Center should correct the rental disparity between the established CBDs. 6 4Q 2018 Alabang GRAPH 15 GRAPH 16 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Alabang Grade A Office Stock Alabang Grade A Office Supply Alabang Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Alabang Grade A Office Take-Up 800 20% 100 80 600 15% 60 400 10% 40 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 200 5% 20 0 0% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 17 GRAPH 18 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Alabang Rental Growth, YoY Alabang Grade A Office Rental Index 100 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 140 20% 80 120 10% 60 100 0% 40 80 -10% sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 =3Q 100 60 -20% 20 40 -30% 0 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Even with an additional 26,600 sq m of GLA in 4Q/2018, Alabang sustained its momentum with a solid net take-up of 37,400 sq m.
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