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711.3 09945 URB:V copy 3 .State Government of Victoria .-- ~~~ ~ . DeRartment of P. lanning and Urban Growtti ~~ :~~- ~ .~ 1990 ~~ : ~iiillliii!l ! M0024461 j ~----.-- Urban Development Options for Victoria PLANNING AND EPA liBRARY ,.........-----~- - - ------ 711.3 Urban development · 109945 options for 'URB :V V:J,ctoriQ. : a ,1 copy 3 d1scuss1on paper I I State Government of Victoria Department of Planning and Urban Growth 1990 I. Foreword In August 1988 the Government released its publication Seventy per cent of the state's population lives in the Victoria - Trading on Achievement. This document metropolitan area and many people are concerned about focused on competitive strengths as the basis for the continued outward growth of Melbourne. The continued economic growth and diversification. It central issue raised by this paper is whether we should identified the future development of towns and cities in allow that pattern of growth to continue or whether we . Victoria as important for the accommodation of future should pursue an alternative. In either case, we need to population growth and economic development. Three know what the implications are for our economy, broad options were suggested: environment and society. If we want to change this • a range of new innovatively planned centres pattern, we need to discuss how we do it and what steps incorporated into the existing urban area of must be taken to achieve a different result. metropolitan Melbourne This paper is being widely distributed-to interested • development of one or more urban centres close to groups and individuals in January 19~1. The Melbourne D~partment of Planning and Urban Growth is organising • planned expansion of selected regionat centres at seminars from February through to. April in regional some distance from Melbourne. centres and in Melbourne. Regional organisations are asked tO participate in these seminars and to organise · To explore the background to these and other possible their own processes of consultation among members. options an interdepartmental committee was established. Professional, industrial, academic and other groups with It included representatives from the Department of an interest in the urban development of the state are also Planning and Urban Growth, the Department of Industry asked to participate. and Economic Planning, the Department of the Treasury, the Ministry of Transport, the Department of Labour, the Please forward any written comments you have to the Office of Water Resources and the Board of Works. Director, Urban Development Division, Department of Planning and Urban Growth, Box 2240T, GPO A series of working papers, covering topics ranging from Melbourne 3001. Comments following the first round of housing to transport was prepared for the committee. consultation should reach the department by the end of These papers are listed in the appendixes to this May 1991. discussion paper. A further paper was prepared by Dr David Wilmoth, RMIT. This report is a synthesis of these papers arid dis cussions that have been held with regional organisations over the last year. It is based on the report prepared by Dr Wilmoth, with the four spatial concepts defined and described by the Department of Planning and Urban Growth's Urban Development Division. It is intended to • encourage discussion about the future urban ANDREW McCUTCHEON development of Victoria, so that the aspirations of our MINISTER FOR PLANNING community can be met over the years to come. AND URBAN GROWTH Contents Page 1. Introduction 7 2. Trends 2.1 The population· .9 2.2 The economy 16 2.3 The environment 18 3. Issues 3.1 Economic development 22 3.2 Employment 23 3.3 Housing 23 3.4 Infrastructure 24 3.5 Environment 25 3.6 Accessibility 26 3.7 Social development 27 3.8 Summary 27 4. Options 4.1 Compact Melbourne 30 4.2 Twin cities 33 4.3 New towns 36 4.4 Regional centres 38 5. ·Implementation 5.1 Compact Melbourne· 41 5.2 Twin cities 42 ·5.3 New towns 42 5.4 Regional centres .43 5.5 Which option? 44 Page Appendixes 1. Development opportunities in regional centres 45 2. References 61 3. Published working papers 62 4. Steering committee 63 Figures Figure 1. Victoria, population projections 1986-2031 9 . Figure 2; Victoria, components of population growth, 1991-2031 10 Figure 3. Victoria, population and household growth rates, 1986-2031 10 Figure 4. Victoria, age structure of the population, 1986 and 2031 11 Figure 5. Victoria, population in urban centres, 1989 12 Figure 6. Victoria, population changes in regionial centres, 1986-2031 12 Figure 7. Melbourne's growth areas 1990 13 Figure 8. Victoria, population change by municipality, 1976-89 14 Figure 9. Victoria, projected population change by municipality, excluding Melbourne, 1989-2031 14 Figure 10. Victoria, distrib.ution of household incomes, 1986 15 Figure 11. Victoria, dominant land uses and major resources 16 Figure 12. Victoria, employment forecast by industry 1990 and 2031 17 Figure 13. Melbourne, ozone and atmospheric lead, 1982-1990 19 Figure 14. Victoria, surface water salinity, to 1985 ·.20 · Figure 15. Victoria, historical changes in wetland area, by wetland type, to 1989 21. ·Figure 16. Victoria, predicted conseq~ences of global warming 21 Figure 17. Melbourne, dwelling commencements 1981-2011 24 Figure 18. Infrastructure costs of metropolitan growth corridors and provincial centres 25 Figure 19. Victoria, motor vehicle travel per head, 1971-1988 26 Figure 20. Development options for Greater Melbourne and Victoria 29 Figure 21. Concept 1: Compact Melbourne 30 Figure 22. Concept 2: Twin cities 33 Figure 23. Concept 3: N~w towns 36 Figure 24. Concept 4: Regional centres 38 Figure 25. Urban growth concepts, projected population increase 198672031 (table) 40 1. Introduction This paper is about the future of urban development in immigration, but if we take it as a basis for Victoria. In particular it puts forward ideas about the discussion, it is likely that more than 800,000 future growth of Melbourne and the links between that additional people would be living in Melbourne. We growth and the likely social, economic and may have differing opinions about how much growth environmental features of the twenty-first century. · is desirable and where it should occur, but we still need a strategy for settling more people in Victoria, The history of Victoria has given us a single dominant even if we want to slow down population growth as urban centre, metropolitan Melbourne, now home to 70 much as possible. Another strong factor influencing per cent of the state's-population. The Government has future urban development is the size of households accepted the projections for Melbourne's continued and the rate at which they seek housing. As an growth for the next 10-15 years and has planned major example, for every increase of 100,000 people we growth areas to accommodate that growth over the would need accommodation for more than 35,600 medium term .. But the pattern that is emerging, households if the state average household size is 2.8 reflecting a balance between strong market forces and persons. But if that average declined to two, we significant environmental and financial constraints, would need 50,000 new homes, an increase of 14,400 means that new urban areas will be further and further for exactly the same population. The trend towards from the 'centre of Melbourne and the established areas smaller households seems likely to continue, so even of job opportunities and our principal institutions. if overall population growth is slower we will still Having taken decisions for the medium term, we now need an increasing number of houses. have the chance to look further ahead and to formulate a • Economic development is a statewide, metropolitan statewide settlement strategy for up to 40 years ahead. and regional concern. Economic success is vital to The year 2031 is not an end point but it does represent a our standard of living and an even stronger imperative reasonable timespan for which we can make long-term now that the overall economic outlook is difficult. plans. A long-term view is needed because, even with Will we be able to move the Victorian economy to rapid growth, only a fraction of our towns and cities are concentrate more on information services, education,, built or re-built each year. The rate of physical change is advanced technology, and high value-added services slow and major shifts in established patterns of urban with greater export potential? Can our manufacturing development neeg long lead times. sector improve its export performance or should we Development of the state is an important issue for us all. concentrate our efforts on other export strengths in We are at a vital stage in Victoria's economic, social and agriculture, minerals and energy? If we decide environmental development. We need to look ahead and vigorously to pursue advanced technologies, could discuss the future. What pattern of urban development that be done in a way that is at once competitive and i. will occur if we continue with current trends and also promotes employment growth in provincial policies? Do we like the result? What opportunities centres? . Or is it dependent, for success, on would it offer for work, living and recreation? If we do · concentrating those activities in the metropolitan not like this prospect, how can we change it? Are area? Is continued metropolitan growth with all its significant changes achievable? How can the costs of infrastructure investment and cross community respond to these questions and make a metropolitan travel times compatible with securing a ·difference? competitive economic future? The future pattern of urban and regional development depends in part on These sorts of questions have made urban policy issues a the answers to such questions.