711.3 09945 URB:V copy 3 .State Government of Victoria .-- ~~~ ~ . DeRartment of P. lanning and Urban Growtti ~~ :~~- ~ .~ 1990 ~~ : ~iiillliii!l ! M0024461 j ~----.--
Urban Development Options for Victoria
PLANNING AND EPA liBRARY
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711.3 Urban development · 109945 options for 'URB :V V:J,ctoriQ. : a ,1 copy 3 d1scuss1on paper
I I
State Government of Victoria Department of Planning and Urban Growth 1990 I. . Foreword
In August 1988 the Government released its publication Seventy per cent of the state's population lives in the Victoria - Trading on Achievement. This document metropolitan area and many people are concerned about focused on competitive strengths as the basis for the continued outward growth of Melbourne. The continued economic growth and diversification. It central issue raised by this paper is whether we should identified the future development of towns and cities in allow that pattern of growth to continue or whether we . Victoria as important for the accommodation of future should pursue an alternative. In either case, we need to population growth and economic development. Three know what the implications are for our economy, broad options were suggested: environment and society. If we want to change this • a range of new innovatively planned centres pattern, we need to discuss how we do it and what steps incorporated into the existing urban area of must be taken to achieve a different result. metropolitan Melbourne This paper is being widely distributed-to interested • development of one or more urban centres close to groups and individuals in January 19~1. The Melbourne D~partment of Planning and Urban Growth is organising • planned expansion of selected regionat centres at seminars from February through to. April in regional some distance from Melbourne. centres and in Melbourne. Regional organisations are asked tO participate in these seminars and to organise · To explore the background to these and other possible their own processes of consultation among members. options an interdepartmental committee was established. Professional, industrial, academic and other groups with It included representatives from the Department of an interest in the urban development of the state are also Planning and Urban Growth, the Department of Industry asked to participate. and Economic Planning, the Department of the Treasury, the Ministry of Transport, the Department of Labour, the Please forward any written comments you have to the Office of Water Resources and the Board of Works. Director, Urban Development Division, Department of Planning and Urban Growth, Box 2240T, GPO A series of working papers, covering topics ranging from Melbourne 3001. Comments following the first round of housing to transport was prepared for the committee. consultation should reach the department by the end of These papers are listed in the appendixes to this May 1991. discussion paper. A further paper was prepared by Dr David Wilmoth, RMIT. This report is a synthesis of these papers arid dis cussions that have been held with regional organisations over the last year. It is based on the report prepared by Dr Wilmoth, with the four spatial concepts defined and described by the Department of Planning and Urban Growth's Urban Development Division. It is intended to • encourage discussion about the future urban ANDREW McCUTCHEON development of Victoria, so that the aspirations of our MINISTER FOR PLANNING community can be met over the years to come. AND URBAN GROWTH Contents
Page
1. Introduction 7 2. Trends
2.1 The population· .9 2.2 The economy 16 2.3 The environment 18
3. Issues
3.1 Economic development 22 3.2 Employment 23 3.3 Housing 23 3.4 Infrastructure 24 3.5 Environment 25 3.6 Accessibility 26 3.7 Social development 27 3.8 Summary 27
4. Options
4.1 Compact Melbourne 30 4.2 Twin cities 33 4.3 New towns 36 4.4 Regional centres 38
5. ·Implementation
5.1 Compact Melbourne· 41 5.2 Twin cities 42 ·5.3 New towns 42 5.4 Regional centres .43 5.5 Which option? 44 Page
Appendixes
1. Development opportunities in regional centres 45 2. References 61 3. Published working papers 62 4. Steering committee 63
Figures
Figure 1. Victoria, population projections 1986-2031 9 . Figure 2; Victoria, components of population growth, 1991-2031 10 Figure 3. Victoria, population and household growth rates, 1986-2031 10 Figure 4. Victoria, age structure of the population, 1986 and 2031 11 Figure 5. Victoria, population in urban centres, 1989 12 Figure 6. Victoria, population changes in regionial centres, 1986-2031 12 Figure 7. Melbourne's growth areas 1990 13 Figure 8. Victoria, population change by municipality, 1976-89 14 Figure 9. Victoria, projected population change by municipality, excluding Melbourne, 1989-2031 14 Figure 10. Victoria, distrib.ution of household incomes, 1986 15 Figure 11. Victoria, dominant land uses and major resources 16 Figure 12. Victoria, employment forecast by industry 1990 and 2031 17 Figure 13. Melbourne, ozone and atmospheric lead, 1982-1990 19 Figure 14. Victoria, surface water salinity, to 1985 ·.20 · Figure 15. Victoria, historical changes in wetland area, by wetland type, to 1989 21. ·Figure 16. Victoria, predicted conseq~ences of global warming 21 Figure 17. Melbourne, dwelling commencements 1981-2011 24 Figure 18. Infrastructure costs of metropolitan growth corridors and provincial centres 25 Figure 19. Victoria, motor vehicle travel per head, 1971-1988 26 Figure 20. Development options for Greater Melbourne and Victoria 29 Figure 21. Concept 1: Compact Melbourne 30 Figure 22. Concept 2: Twin cities 33 Figure 23. Concept 3: N~w towns 36 Figure 24. Concept 4: Regional centres 38
Figure 25. Urban growth concepts, projected population increase 198672031 (table) 40 1. Introduction
This paper is about the future of urban development in immigration, but if we take it as a basis for Victoria. In particular it puts forward ideas about the discussion, it is likely that more than 800,000 future growth of Melbourne and the links between that additional people would be living in Melbourne. We growth and the likely social, economic and may have differing opinions about how much growth environmental features of the twenty-first century. · is desirable and where it should occur, but we still need a strategy for settling more people in Victoria, The history of Victoria has given us a single dominant even if we want to slow down population growth as urban centre, metropolitan Melbourne, now home to 70 much as possible. Another strong factor influencing per cent of the state's-population. The Government has future urban development is the size of households accepted the projections for Melbourne's continued and the rate at which they seek housing. As an growth for the next 10-15 years and has planned major example, for every increase of 100,000 people we growth areas to accommodate that growth over the would need accommodation for more than 35,600 medium term .. But the pattern that is emerging, households if the state average household size is 2.8 reflecting a balance between strong market forces and persons. But if that average declined to two, we significant environmental and financial constraints, would need 50,000 new homes, an increase of 14,400 means that new urban areas will be further and further for exactly the same population. The trend towards from the 'centre of Melbourne and the established areas smaller households seems likely to continue, so even of job opportunities and our principal institutions. if overall population growth is slower we will still Having taken decisions for the medium term, we now need an increasing number of houses. . have the chance to look further ahead and to formulate a • Economic development is a statewide, metropolitan statewide settlement strategy for up to 40 years ahead. and regional concern. Economic success is vital to The year 2031 is not an end point but it does represent a our standard of living and an even stronger imperative reasonable timespan for which we can make long-term now that the overall economic outlook is difficult. plans. A long-term view is needed because, even with Will we be able to move the Victorian economy to rapid growth, only a fraction of our towns and cities are concentrate more on information services, education,, built or re-built each year. The rate of physical change is advanced technology, and high value-added services slow and major shifts in established patterns of urban with greater export potential? Can our manufacturing development neeg long lead times. sector improve its export performance or should we Development of the state is an important issue for us all. concentrate our efforts on other export strengths in We are at a vital stage in Victoria's economic, social and agriculture, minerals and energy? If we decide environmental development. We need to look ahead and vigorously to pursue advanced technologies, could discuss the future. What pattern of urban development that be done in a way that is at once competitive and i. will occur if we continue with current trends and also promotes employment growth in provincial policies? Do we like the result? What opportunities centres? . Or is it dependent, for success, on would it offer for work, living and recreation? If we do · concentrating those activities in the metropolitan not like this prospect, how can we change it? Are area? Is continued metropolitan growth with all its significant changes achievable? How can the costs of infrastructure investment and cross community respond to these questions and make a metropolitan travel times compatible with securing a ·difference? competitive economic future? The future pattern of urban and regional development depends in part on These sorts of questions have made urban policy issues a the answers to such questions. We have an matter of state and l)ational significance. and the opportunity to discuss the types of jobs and government of Victoria has been leading efforts to seek businesses we would like to have across the state and adequate resources for urban services and infrastructure. in our local areas. But the issues are not just about the bricks and mortar of our towns and cities. Urban settlements also reflect and Since the patterns of urban development affect influence our economic activities, our broad social economic activities, and vice versa, the future relationships and th~ way we respond to our physical· " economy is an urban planning issue. environment. We must therefore consider these factors, • Social justice requires that all people in the too, if we are to arrive at a workable, sustainable and metropolitan area, the provincial cities and rural areas achievable pattern of settlement in Victoria. have access to more of the types of opportunities necessary for well-being, such as higher education, The main issues for discussion include the following. affordable housing, employment opportunities, • Population growth is the driving force behind the recreation and community services. As the structure need for a settlement strategy. We will need to of the economy changes, issues of real income accommodate about 1.5 million more people in distribution arise that are linked to patterns of urban Victoria by the census year 2031. This figure may development. Without local jobs, for example, the vary depending on the mix of natural increase and opportunities for local wealth creation would be
7 ------
diminished. If the current pattern of urban grants. rather than tied funding. There is also an development continues, housing will be less important equity issue involved. One section of the affordable for a larger proportion of households, and community should not have to bear an unfair burden housing could eat up a growing share of household of costs generated by other sections of the community expenditure. Fortunately, Victoria is a relatively and there is a case for differential service charges to compact state, and some of these issues can be reflect the real costs of urban development in different considered by linking regional and metropolitan areas. Urban expansion requires large financial opportunities. For example, cheaper housing in a investment and it may be more cost-effective to divert · regional centre could offset the costs and some growth away from the metropolitan area. inconvenience of rapid commuting to a metropolitan There are other issues, too, that need to be discussed. job, and could add to the job creation potential in the regional centre by increasing consumer expenditure. Developing productive workplaces and a creative culture, housing the homeless, taking opportunities for If Melbourne continue4 to grow most of its new jobs and economic activity in the south and east, would it technological development, addressing the particular be fair for people in the north and west having to urban service needs of women, migrants and Aboriginal . people, preserving areas. we like and want to keep, and commute across the metropolitan area to secure employment? While there are limits to the role of . assuring community safety and security are some of the planning in directing a mixed market economy, if a issues that could be brought out in discussion of this paper. · shared vision of what should be done can be developed, much can be achieved. The next section of the paper looks at current and likely • Sustainable development and environment ·future trends, with the aim of showing what scope there is for changing them. The implications of these trends protection have come strongly to the fore in recent · years. They create opportunities to explore new for urban development are then raised, particularly the forms of urban development and to ·find new ways of issue of whether we should take the trends as given or using present urban areas through a combination of seek to change them. To make the discussion more appropriate and advanced teChnologies. They require specific, a further section suggests some alternative a more rigourous assessment of the pace and pattern options for the development of the Victorian urban of metropolitan growth in particular. They suggest system. Possible means of implementing an urban that in any new urban strategy the issue of urban strategy are reviewed. density will be a primary one, especially if we are to With plans for the medium-term growth of Melbourne reduce the 'land take' from the natural environment now in place, it is a good time to have a wide debate for urban purposes. The question of whether the about the future pattern of urban development in national and state greenhouse gas emission targets Victoria: Of course, urban development will not stop will create development opportunities for Victorian while discussion is under way, and government, private energy, products and services, or whether it will result . sector and community decisions will continue to be in a reduction of economic activity_in such areas as made. Major urban policies are currently under the Latrobe region, is very much an issue for the discussion between the state and Commonwealth future patterns of urban development government. From the ideas that ensue from this • Transport and land use are inseparable components · community debate, the Victorian Government intends to of urban development and must be planned together. take the necessary decisions to implement an economic, The costs of public transport are enormous and cannot fair, and sustainable pattern of urban development in the be sustained with low densities of development. , state. Improving people's access to jobs, shops, recreation and services will require more efficient and intensive use of existing networks. Developing new transport infrastructure will need strong justification and clear economic and social benefits. Transport is also vital for freight distribution. Getting efficient transport networks is not only an important economic issue, it plays a significant part in structuring our urban areas. Transport will also have a pivotal role in the future relationship between Melbourne and regional cen~res. • Funding constraints affect government, business and the community. We must make sure that patterns of urban development and provision of urban services are cost-effective. That means getting the best value for the infrastructure and service dollar. If, for example, we fail to get the best possible value from investment in sewers and drains, we will be wasting public money that could otherwise be invested in open space, hospitals and schools. This issue will become inore important as the Commonwealth and state governments move towards general funding
8 2. Trends
shown at the bottom of the range, as internal l12f11 The population outmigration and metropolitan overseas immigration are correlated. Components of the state's most likely The population growth of Victoria, like any other area, is population growth are shown in Figure 2. based on natural increase and migration. Natural increase can be expected to continue as in present trends - Population growth will bring demand for goods and with low fertility and increasing life expectancy. Rates services, particularly land and housing. Population of migration will determine the range of population growth understates the scale.of these latter demands, so growth options for the next 30 years. · it is more useful to look at growth in the number and type of households.. Because the proportion of small and The loss of population to other states would be more single households is increasing and expected to continue than compensated for by Victoria's share of the national (with occupancy rates in Victoria expected to decline migration intake. A range of forecasts to the year 2031 from an average of 3.12 persons per dwelling in 1986 to is show·ri in Figure 1, based mainly on differing 2.64 persons in 2031),.the number of households will assumptions about fertility (decline stopped at 1.8 or 1.6 increase more rapidly than population, as shown in children per woman), overseas migration (national net Figure 3. While in the short and medium term, growth rising to 142,600 a year or declining to 80,000 a · _economic conditions prevent this underlying demand year) and interstate migration. This range of population - from becoming effective demand - that is, many new growth is very wide. Nevertheless, assuming Victoria's households cannot afford their own housing and younger share of immigration remains constant, it will most adults stay at home - over the long term the rate of likely be necessary to accommodate at least 5.9 million household formation is a good indicator of housing in Victoria by 2031, an addition of 1.5 million people. It demand and hence one of the key determinants of urban is difficult to envisage lower population growth than that land and services demand.
Figure 1.. Victoria, population projections 1986-2031
% Growth since 1986
70
60
50
40 ------~------· --- 30 ------~---- 20 .... ----- ... -- ... ----- ... ------.... ---- 10 __ ... ------...... --
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 YEAR
TYPE *--*-* POPULAT/N GROWTH +---+ HOUSEHOLD GROWTH ~
Source: Department of the Treasury, 1990
9 Figure 2. Victoria, components of population growth, 1991-2031
Annual Population Additions
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
l!ll NATURAL INCREASE ~ NET MIGRATION Source: Department of the Treasury, 1990
Figure 3. Victoria, population and household growth rates, 1986-2031
Population in OOOs 6500 -- --
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
YEAR PROJ ---- A --- B ----· c ------· D --v
Source: A.B.S. & Department of the Treuury, 1990
10 The proportion of aged people in the population has been Warmambool and Mildura. The Latrobe Valley is likely increasing - for example doubling in the 65+ years group to grow only at a slow rate, and other regions without between 1971 and 1986- and this can reHably be provincial centres, especially in the west, hardly at all. expected to continue. Figure 4 shows how the number The proportion of people born overseas may be even of older people will at least treble over the next 40 years, higher than it is today, and they will be from a wider, assuming the mid-range population growth trends shown and more Asian, range of cultural backgrounds. Victoria above. The future aged will be largely those who has one of the world's most diverse societies, especially already live in Victoria. in Melbourne, where more than 130 different The distribution of population growth in Victoria will nationalities are represented and more than a third of the depend on future economic development, environmental population has been born overseas. Suburbs and country constraints and government policies. Melbourne towns will also be more ethnically diverse. The dominates the state (see Figure 5) but within its existing Aboriginal population will most likely continue to boundaries it will grow more slowly than the rest of urbanise, and Aboriginal culture will have a wider Victoria, accounting for only 46.2 per cent of the likely influence on environmental planning. The role of total state growth to the year 2031 (see Figure 6). If its women in the future of Victorian settlements will most share were to rise to 65 per cent of projected growth, this likely be more important than today. There will be an would bring the metropolitan population to 4.11 million increasing proportion of women in the population and rather than 3.78 million. As shown in Figure 7, which probably in the workforce and women's different roles shows present planning policies, Melbourne's growth will have a stronger influence on urban policy in such will continue at the fringe and develop in other areas. areas as neighbourhood design, transport systems, By sector, on present growth and capacity trends, the workforce distribution and service availability. eastern sector will take little growth, the southern and northern sectors will accelerate in the short term, and the In education, the recent dramatic increases in school western sector will grow in the long term. On present retention rates and participation in higher education in policies, urban land in the southern sector- e.g., Victoria can be expected to continue as economic Mornington Peninsula - would also run out in the longer restructuring, a tighter job market, multi-skilling and term. Beyond Melbourne and its outskirts, as shown in technological change place a premium on educational Figure 9, the largest population increases will be in attainment and career flexibility. Victoria's leadership in Geelong - virtually a part of the metropolitan region educational development will continue to improve both anyway- Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga, educational access and the export of education.
Figure 4. Victoria, age structure of the population, 1986 and 2031
Source: Department of the Treasury, t 990
FEJLALE - 1991 NUMBER OF PEOPLE 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15- 19 10-14 5-9 0- 4
210000 140000 70000 0 0 70000 140000 210000
11 Figure 5. Victoria, population in urban centres, 1989
URBAN CENTRES
>25,000 Population ~
10,000-25,000 Population •
5,000 - 9,999 Population e
> 2,500,000 Population · ...... ·
Stawell•
;'•B•cckus :·..(~~~~~::::·. ·.;·1 Hamilton • rJA~~ars ' STATISTICAL ~ . ~~- J'\OIVISION .i LATROB~ VALLEY ("1..,, ~ S~E GEELON ) ; Warragul "'Ia., ... c~c · • • "'.-..../ MORWEL .. rt!li TRARALG ·. Ocean • / ~ urch/11 Grove A SCALE
~0 0 ~0 100 ~ l!llO~(IIHS SOURCE 1986 CENSUS DATA
Figure 6. Victoria, population changes in regional centres, 1986-2031
Rank - size distribution 1986, 2011, 2031
10 100 1000 10000 Population (OOOs)' -1986 2011 2031
Source: ABS and Department of the Treasurv. 1QQO
12 . Figure 7. Melbourne's growth areas 1990
~ Priority Growth Areas 0 Inner Areas District Centre Longer Term Growth Option -f-- 0 Regional District Centre C::O Melbourne Airport • Outer Strategic District Centre [::=J Established Urban Areas • Major Activily Centres- Growth Areas Metropolilan Ring Road * Central Melbourne 0 5 10 15 20 25km ~
Future housing trends for different types of urban dwelling price disparity between inner and outer suburbs settlement need more thorough forecasting, and the has increased over the last ten years from 1.1: 1 to 2: 1. industry is prone to major fluctuations, but some current The trend towards fewer households being able to trends are likely to continue. Total Victorian households purchase their own houses is likely to continue without are projected to increase from 1.343 million in 1976 to major housing and urban policy changes. A risk is that 1.921 million in 2011, an annual increase of 1.4 per cent. the number of people unable to afford any housing at all We will need to build about 487,00 new private will continue to increase, particularly in Melbourne, and dwellings over the next 20 years in Victoria, 286,000 of that the incidence of homelessness, which has risen them in Melbourne. According to ABS the level of substantially over recent years, could worsen. dwelling commencements in Melbourne beyond the next 15 years will be constrained by foreseeable land supply, The distribution of access to housing is only one falling from 113,000 commencements over the five indicator of a trend towards widening disparities of years ending 1991 to 72,800 over the five years ending wealth in the community, both among areas and among 2011. This will put pressure on housing in inner groups (see Figure 10 for one indication of income Melbourne, and on urban centres elsewhere, by an disparities). As the economy becomes more amount depending on how much more land in internationally exposed and restructured towards Melbourne can be released without major policy changes services, and even as it grows overall, it is quite possible to cater for long-term growth. Housing could become that wealth will become more unevenly distributed, generally less affordable, as measured by threshold unless the problem is vigorously addressed by economic incomes needed to buy a medium-priced house. The and social policies.
13 Figure 8. Victoria, population change by municipality, 1976-89
I Population Gain I Population Loss Source: Cataloeue nos. 3202.2 k 3203.2, A.B.S
Figure 9. Victoria, projected population change by municipality, excluding Melbourne, 1989-2031
I Population Gain I Population Loss Source: Catalol'le No. 3203.2, ! .B.S. k The Department of The Treasury, 1990
14
L ------
Figure 10. Victoria, distribution of household incomes, 1986 %Low Income Households* (1986)
Melbourne Statistical Division
KEY c:::::J < 2 3 . 8" -~ 2 3 . 8 1-3 0 . 6 6 1: SB8SB8 3 0 . 6 7-3 7 1: . - • 3 7 . 0 1 -52 . 1 " · • A more precise definition is that this map shows the percentage of households in 1986 within the lowest quartile of Victorian household incomes for each statistical local area in Victoria. The data has been arranged into four· equal groups
% High Income Households * ( 1986)
Melbourne Statistical Division
KEY c:::::J <13.22% . ~ 13.23-17.6" ~ 17.61-24:.: - 24.01-46.35" • A more precise definition is that this map shows the percentage of households in . 1-986 within the highest quartile of Victorian household incomes for each statistical local area in Victoria. · The data has been arranged into four equal groups
Source: 1986 Population Census, A.B.S. I. 15 Business cycles do not provide a sound basis for 40-year The economy economic forecasting, and it is more useful in a discussion paper such as this to look at the fundamentals of the Victorian economy and the economic develop ment options ahead. A strong and diverse economy has Victoria's economy accounts for more than 27 per cent given Victoria the pattern of urban settlement we have of national production and 26.5 per cent of Australia's enjoyed over recent decades, from the quiet productive employment, compared with 25.5 per cent of population. lands of East Gippsland to the concentrated excitement Since Victoria's share of national population has of downtown Melbourne. Figure 11 shows the diversity declined, so has its share of national output. Victoria has of resources and land use in Victoria. led Australia over the past decade with growth in real per capita production and real disposable income, and Recent trends have been much less favourable: demand • over the past few years has also led Australia with real constraints have hit Victorian private investment harder private business investment (at 8 per cent growth per than elsewhere, as manufacturing and primary industries year, twice the national average) and with exports of bear the brunt of a rapid economic downturn, and as manufactures. This dynamism has been in part due to economic confidence falters. As the economy weakens careful economic planning and in part due to recovery, over the short term, the pace of private urban until recently, in manufacturing and other industries construction is dampened by lower demand and the pace where Victoria is strong. This economic development of public infrastructure by a shortage of capital finance. has underlain an active urban development industry, The need to reduce Victoria's debt would further limit both private (commercial and residential construction, funds for new urban infrastructure were it not for current land development, etc) and public sector (housing, land efforts to identify further sources of funds for development, infrastructure, etc). infrastructure finance.
Figure 11. Victoria, dominant land uses and major resources
~}}}) ! Public Land ~ Beef ~ Dairy Q Sheep •&v Fruit ~~ Vegetables
~~·f Grain ·
••• Brown Coal
6!;. Gold
16 Long-term trends in the industry structure of Growth of the workforce will continue to be strong, employment show a large but relative decline in the depending mainly on the volume of immigration. manufacturing sector, a growing services sector, and Between 1991 and 2021, the workforce is forecast to declining employment in the agricultural and mining grow by about 1.285 million people. Though recent sectors (see Figure 12) though traditional industry workforce growth has been widely distributed, new jobs categories are becoming less useful for describing the have been concentrated in Melbourne and particularly in new economy. Despite high productivity in the latter the south-eastern sector. Future workforce growth two industries, the forecast pattern of output shows a presents an enormous challenge for the equitable and similar trend. Victoria's reliance on commodities efficient location of new jobs. exports has been mitigated by growing manufacturing exports but no reliable long-term forecasts of this trend can be shown.
Figure 12. Victoria, employment forecast by industry 1990 and 2031
Employment by Industry - Victoria 1989/90
Transport, Construction and Communication 14%
Wholesale and Retail Trade 20% Agriculture and Mining 5%
Entertainment and Public Utilities 7%
Finance 11% Public Administration and Community Services 23%
Source: Department of the Treasury Employment Projections by Industry: March 1990
Employment by Industry - Victoria 2030/31
Transport, Construction and Communication 13% Wholesale and Retail Trade 21%
Agriculture and Mining 2%
Finance 16% Entertainment and Public Utilities 8%
Public Administration and Community Services 28%
Source: Department of the Treasury Employment Projections by Industry: March 1990
17 The need for new water supply; sewerage and drairiage The environment works and services will vary according to the extent that Environmental trends are difficult to forecast because of demand for water is managed. By 2031 water use in the complexity of environmental systems, as controversy Melbourne is projected to increase by 110 to 120 per over global warming has illustrated. Against cent over current levels; 10 to 15 per cent of that unfavourable long-stan!ling past trends, many recent increase can be harvested with further development of indicators of environmental quality show improvements, tributary resources. The remainder would have to be though newly recognised environmental issues such as found by surface based harvesting beyond the current hazardous land uses, toxic wastes and degraded urban Board of Works area. land present major challenges for urban environmental If present trends continue, Melbourne would have a improvement If present trends continue, overall urban · 75 per cent increase in sewage flows over the next environmental quality will be maintained and improved 40 years. Capacities to treat sewage at the main only with substantial infrastructure spending and strict facilities at Werribee and Carrum will need to be environmental standards for urban development and augmented to cope with demand. Construction of the redevelopment. Current data does not give a · western trunk sewer is nearly complete, and work will comprehensive picture of environmental status, but some begin on the north-western trunk sewer in 1991. Savings indicators are available which show the need for in sewerage works would, however, occur with higher continued vigilance in environmental care. For example, density development, optimising the use of existing the incidence of breaches of air quality standards has sewers and lessening the need for new works. been declining but, as shown in Figure 13, Melbourne's peak ozone and atmospheric lead levels are not yet at The expected cost of providing water, sewerage and acceptable standards. For water quality, some statewide drainage works and services to new development around and metropolitan indicators of surface salinity and MelbOurne is expected to rise in real terms by 50 per wetland areas ar~ shown in Figures 14 and 15 · cent by 2031. The costs of future hydraulic works vary respectively. Baseline data and better forecasts are from one provincial city to another. needed for statewide urban planning as environmental Simple trends and forecasts cannot paint a full picture of constraints and opportunities take centre stage in public what life in Victoria will be like up to year 2031 and policy. beyond, what' our towns and cities will be like, what will The major issue of environmental concern is the be happening in the larger world and what will be widespread prediction of global warming which could Victoria's economic, social, environmental and cultural result in a range of temperature increases from 1 to 3 place in it. Nevertheless, they provide some background degrees centigrade between 2031 and 2100, with sea to thinking about these issues which are further level rises from 20 to 65cm. Possible regional effects of considered in the next section. global warming are shown in Figure 16 and their implications for state and national policies have been spelt out in various reports. Melbourne's future environmental conditions w.ill depend crucially on its size and growth, and on policies for water and air quality, land conservation, transportation, open space, and suburban expansion. Existing policies protect its environmentally sensitive areas. Conservation and landscape interest zones such as the Upper Yarra Valley, the Dandenong Ranges and the Moinington Peninsula limit outward growth. · While residential growth policies have been developed to protect areas with the highest conservation value, the continued expansion of the metropolis will place pressures on non-urban areas. Recreation demands in areas such as the Dandenong Ranges and the Mornington Peninsula have necessitated extensive environmental management measures. Without controls and restrictions on access to these sensitive environments, land degradation, erosion and destruction of natural habitats would have been extensive. A larger metropolitan population will require new measures to retain areas with conservation significance. Being surrounded in part by hills, Melbourne faces a significant problem with air pollution. A larger, more· congested city would result in higher levels of atmospheric pollution at a time when environmental consciousness had risen significantly.
18 Figure 13. Melbourne, ozone and atmospheric lead, 1982-1990
ATMOSPHERIC LEAD I MAXIMUM 3-MONTHLY MOVING MEANS
3,00
2,00 1149,- _!.~!------' 130 1 29 m 1,00 ' 0 75 I • 0 76 '..... __ .:...__ 0165 -~ ,_ -~--~---~-~-~- 0162 " 0.61 0 I 57 0 I 53 0,00 ...L____,_ __.-----.----.-----.----.----.---,----J 1982183 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90
JULY - JUNE ALPHINGTON -- KEELE STREET __ . SEPP OBJECTIVE ____ _
PEAK 1-HOUR 03 LEVELS MELBOURNE REGION ppm 0,39 ..,..------....:..,-______,
0,25 0,23 0121 0120 0120 0,20 0,20
0115 0,10
0105
0100 ..L_---,---=------,-----,------,.------,------.----.------,,----1 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90
JULY - JUNE OZONE LEVEL - DETRIMENTAL LEVEL ____ _ ACCEPTABLE LEVEL __
19 !! cc c::... CD.... ~ < n 14 *Excellent -0... tcGood .~· en ®Moderate c:: ::l. A Poor m n CD e Degraded m:: -CD... en m 5' ::. tv ~ 0 -0.... co (X) ~ CJ1
1 Upper Murray 21 East Gippsland 31 Werribee 2 Kiewa 22 Snowy . 32 Moorabool 3 Ovens 23 Tambo 33 Barwon 4 Broken 24 Mitchell 34 Corangamite 5 Goulburn 25 Thomson 35 Otway 6 Campaspe 26 Latrobe 36 Hopkins 0 100 7 Loddon 21 South Gippsland 37 Portland w.q,w! Ia.! """'· Ia.! I 8 Avoca 28 Bunyip 38 Glenelg 14 Mallee 29 Yarra Kilometres 15 Wimmera 30 Maribyrnong Source: Rural Water Commission, data to 1985 Figure 15. Metropolitan Melbourne, historical changes in wetland area, by wetland type, to 1989 5 PERMANENT 100% FRE~E:ATER PLANNiNG AND EPA LU3AARY
80 60
4t 6 3 1 20 2 SEMI· 20 FRESHWATER PERMANENT PERMANENT MEADOW SALINE SALINE 0 •2.405 ha •2.180 ha -20
-40 -60 -63'1. -80 -90.373 ha SOURCE : CORRICK/ ARI DATA. 1989
Figure 16. Victoria, predicted consequences of global warming
LOWER MURRAY --_ttigher flows downstream of Mildura ···-/--~-----. -,,,,__ "',---- Mlldura --, .. , \ \ \ '' 'I 'I MALLEE/WIMMERA l Increased wind erosion] I
\ I ' \ \ I ' I I I I I I I I ,' :I ,,· I I \ Shepparton • ,' I I I· I GENERAL EFFECTS. I I : , I , • Lower winter/spring rainfall I , over most of State I •sendlgo • , , I i • Increased tire hazard : GOULBURN IRRIGATION I _,.-~-- ...., / I Decrease in rciintall : ,,..,... ;'/ ," .'- \, Decrease in streamtlows •':... ---"" .,."' 1 I , ,...... - ..... , ,,' SNOWFIELDS ..,..,' I ,, __ ,....-""" ', .,'' Snowline ris~,...... · FAR·EAST GIPPSLAND '- .... f •Ballarat -:.:' _..,., r Possible increase in rainfall ------I I 'I
Sea·level rise, associated flooding,erosion
Source: Adapted from Pe~man, G.l.(ed): Greenhouse· Planning lor.Ciimate Change
21 3. Issues
. The implications of these trends for future urban competition. Over a 40-year outlook, the economic development in Victoria need discussion because there opportunities for Victoria are wider still, but the time are major risks in current directions and because there taken to develop globally competitive products and are opportunities which, if taken soon, can lead to much services, perhaps with new land uses, new infrastructure better towns and cities. These issues include future · and new organisations, should not be underestimated. · urban economies, patterns of employment, housing, The ways in which economic trends would affect environmental quality, transportation and accessibility, regional development are not always clear in advance. infrastructure provision and finance, social justice, There is a reasonable indication that Melbourne's community development and urban planning. economy will dominate the state more than it has; that Victoria's and Melbourne's manufacturing sector will continue to lose employment even if it stays strong in productive terms; that rural production, mining and Economic development. energy development will remain central to exports but become a smaller share of employment; that most small The future structure of Victoria's economy is a key issue. settlements and rural areas will continue to lose As we shape our economy and encourage new industries . population despite the growth of some coastal retirement and economic development, we also influence the areas and, possibly, the growth of settlements linked to pattern of our towns and settlements. For example, fast train services. Real employment growth will occur strong development of advanced manufacturing could in highly paid producer services and poorly-paid favour Melbourne's growth, .while strong recovery of personal services, whose workers will be located, resources exports would favour such areas as the Latrobe respectively, in high-amenity areas of the state and in Valley and Portland. As we decide our economic future, areas where housing is cheapest and household capacity or even if we leave it to market decisions, we cannot to pay for services is lowest. With economic avoid the issues of which areas to develop, which areas restructuring along present trends there is also a real risk to conserve and protect, and which areas to keep flexible of a growing pool of unemployed or semi-employed for the future. Manufacturing accounts for about 20 per people who may not be able to afford to live in decent cent of the state's employment and gross product, with comfort anywhere. ·· Melbourne accounting for around 72.5 per cent of the state's manufacturing labour force and over 90 per cent How much scope do we have to effect change to of its manufacturing output. Currently strong Victoria's economic structure in a predominantly market manufacturing industries include basic metals, food economy that is fast intemationalising? The very products, metal products, photo products, electric cable difficult outlook for the Australian and Victorian and pulp and paper. Promising opportunities (those with economy undoubtedly limits the scope of options in the high export-import ratios and high value-added per medium term. But many of the economic success stories employee) are wool processing, machinery, chemicals of this century have come from concerted long-term and rubber, electronics and software, aerospace, efforts at economic development, and new economic automobiles, professional and scientific equipment and strategies need to look well into the next century. One glass products. In primary industries, horticulture and direction of economic change could be further other high value-adding export industries are strong concentration on Australia's current export strengths, opportunities, with a reorientation of traditional grain especially primary products, minerals and processed dairy and fruit products towards Asian markets. fuels. Around these strengths could be developed a stronger services sector. Victoria has a strong primary As the economy shifts even more towards services, the base on which to develop such a strategy. This strategy composition of this sector is vital to Victoria's well would encourage a dispersed productive economy with being. The most readily developed services are those clusters of service industries, including some growth of related to existing industry strengths, such as services to Melbourne. However, the outlook for profitable energy, agriculture and horticulture, transport and commodity trade is not strong, and this strategy would communications. Finance, consulting and corporate most likely not result in high employment growth. services are strong but under competitive threats from other states and overseaS. Services to manufacturing, An alternative emphasis could be the further such as design, engineering and research and development of more advanced· manufacturing beyond development are a particular Victorian strength, backed processed food and simple manufactures, based on up by the state's very strong education and technology Victoria's technological and educational strengths. industries which are underdeveloped export Employment multipliers would be strong. Such a opportunities in their own right. In tum, health, cultural, strategy could favour Melbourne's growth. However, sporting, artistic and recreation services are also strong, this may not show strong results for some years. There and could be central to Melbourne positioning itself are many options for the development of services over nationally and internationally against strengthening the next 30 years, including education, financial
22 --- -~------
services, research and development, health care, Australia over the past decade, it will be a challenge to transportation, communications, environmental ensure employment access and income justice to people management and information technology. It is argued wherever they live, and to prevent the gaps between the by some that Australia and Victoria should concentrate 'information-rich' and 'information-poor' from widening. on the fast-growing internationally tradable services Certainly ail urban strategy for Victoria should sector, rather than manufacturing. But manufacturing encourage information-intensive industries as well as the and services are becoming less and less distinguishable, means of making access to information resources and to abandon manufacturing would be to abandon one broader than it is now. The role of Victoria's technology of the strongest means of generating employment precincts, new types of intelligent buildings, growth. Cities with advanced telematic infrastructure decentralised office parks and concentration of services and knowledge-based industries are poised to take in regional centres all need further consideration. advantage of the next stages of economic growth. Employment within Melbourne is very unevenly However, competing cities like Singapore are placing distributed as compared with the workforce, and this economic development above any other objectives, unevenness appears to be increasing. If a period of whereas there may be social, cultural or political 'jobless growth' were to characterise the economy, or one constraints to Victoria or Melbourne being able to in which most new jobs were low-paid, casual, part-time position itself quickly as an international leader in or intermittent, the present corridor pattern of urban services exports. expansion would retard access to jobs, particularly in the Another economic direction could be via a new west and north. Cross-town job searching, particularly 'greenprint' for the economy, especially if tied to a to the east and south-east where job growth is likely to strategy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions above the continue, requires car ownership and long trips, and current 20 per cent targets. Energy conservation in especially disadvantages women, who will continue to urban areas, industry protection and other restraints on be a high and probably rising proportion of the the globalisation of the economy, and an emphasis on workforce. The extent to which urban form can be used local and regional self-reliance would characterise such a as a means to achieve fairer access to employment is an strategy. Economic development and environmental issue for discussion. The needs of many groups now quality can be mutually supportive, but a no-growth excluded from full participation in urban labour markets economy, if it were possible at all, may not be able to - Aboriginal people and non-English speakers for afford many of the costs of environmental protection and example - may be better addressed by policies targeted improvement towards groups or towards mainstream services rather · than to geographic areas. The ability of public policy to influence the overall economic structure of the state or any region within it, Employment growth outside Melbourne has been weak including metropolitan Melbourne, is limited. and may not improve in relative terms without Nevertheless urban policy can make a major difference significant changes. This raises the issue of whether to the efficiency of the economy- for example through households should be encouraged to move to Melbourne good infrastructure and low congestion. The future or to those provincial cities where jobs are growing, or structure of the economy, in turn, will have a major whether such choices should be left to the hidden hand effect on the pattern of urban development in Victoria. of the market and household preferences. This is well illustrated by the location of employment.
Housing Employ.ment The implications qf present patterns of urban Victoria's workforce will grow from 2.086 million development are serious for future housing affordability. people in 1991 to 2.385 million in 2001, and by a further By 2011 Victoria will need to house about 577,000 more 0.8 million by 2021. Growing imbalances between the households over 1986 levels, with a majority but workforce and accessible jobs will make it hard for diminishing share of this demand in Melbourne. The people to participate in the economy, with accessible current pattern of low-density suburban expansion is jobs in rural areas and new suburban areas particularly heavily subsidised through public services and scarce. Social justice requires that jobs be more fairly infrastructure that is not recouped. If the full costs of distributed in urban areas, but as job growth is largely urban development were passed on. to new house buyers, market driven, access to jobs may have to be improved the resulting incentives for urban consolidation and for by better transport from residential areas to existing job people to leave Melbourne and live somewhere else areas, rather than by policy attempts to relocate jobs to might be seen as a 'self-correcting' way of changing the where people live. Though changes to transportation pattern of urban development, but serious inequities - and communication technology make establishments across areas and across generations - would need to be more footloose, the effect is often to concentrate addressed in any such strategy. As Melbourne grows activities in office districts and other areas for ease of into more expensive areas to service, as the cost of face-to-face contact. In other words, 'telecommuting' capital remains high, and as public finance is likely to m·ay not be the solution to a fairer distribution of jobs to stay tight for a decade or more, it is necessary to rethink people. Indeed, as the nature of macroeconomic change the form and density of much of Victoria's housing. has widened the income distribution of people in Indeed, without major changes of policy, likely
23 restrictions on the supply of land after 2003 indicate a housing demand, it would be unwise to allow cyclical requirement to reallocate commencements to other economic conditions to relax planning for future land regions (see Figure 17). Nevertheless, much more could supplies. Land with capacity for urban development be built within established urban areas. There are areas does not necessarily come onto the market even if outside present corridors that could be more cost rezoned urban. The quantity of potential urban land that effectively developed than within the corridors should be kept at different stages of the land particularly the distant parts of them - and the potential development pipeline to maintain a balance between for dual occupancy, multi-unit housing in suburbs, more market capacity and cost-effectiveness is an important effective residential development provisions and higher issue. In other words, how much idle urban land can we density suburban housing has hardly been tapped. The afford to have? · widening misfit between the current housing stock and the future pattern of household size is a major issue to be addressed in any discussion of future urban form. The high cost of encouraging housing growth in non Infrastructure metropolitan areas is examined below, but there are many housing development opportunities outside The full costs of infrastructure are not faced by users of Melbourne that could be taken if access to employment urban land, with the result that Australian cities, could be assured. including Melbourne, have been wasteful of it. This pattern of underpayment helps explain why Australia In many senses, public housing can be a leader in develops such low-density suburbs. Methods of co changes to urban form; given waiting lists for both ordinating the provision of different services and metropolitan and country locations and Victoria's good infrastructure to different areas in Melbourne have been record with mixed housing developments and well developed through the Metropolitan Services Co managed public housing estates. However, with a 40- ordination System and the Urban Development Program, year outlook it is essential to ensure that public housing but the cost-effectiveness of urban infrastructure is likely location, variety and house-type reflect likely future · to be a major issue over the coming years, with a focus needs - of smaller households and the aged, for example on pricing policies for particular services, the efficient - as well as possible lifestyle preferences. The pattern of management of infrastructure and the encouragement of future public housing, and access to it, will also be urban development in areas with under-utilised influenced by the financial system and by the nature of infrastructure. Commonwealth/state housing agreements. -- The implications of present trends for the costs of future The pattern of future urban land availability, especially urban infrastructure provision are serious, and in and near Melbourne, depends very much on the fundamental changes could be considered, including: conversion of raw land stocks and the future planning and urban development process. The government has • different standards for roads and other expensive developed medium-term corridor plans to secure land aspects of residential.development provisions; · supply in Melbourne but with the build-up of underlying • private sector provision of services outside public provider monopolies, including rights to develop integrated infrastructure for large new urban developments; Figure 17. Melbourne, dwelling • the wider use of new or unconventional technologies; commencements 1981-2011 • more widespread use of developer contributions; • capital charges for infrastructure differentiated by 27.000 area, and recurrent charges geared closely to patterns 26.000 of use; 25.000 • innovative joint public/private financing methods. 24.000 23.000 Current demand constraints, the tight outlook for public finance, and consequential strains on services and Cl) 22.000 Cl z: . 2l000 infrastructure provision could cloud the 40-year outlook, :::; ~ w 20.000 though the issue of whether this is passing pessimism or ~ 0 19.000 the shape of worse to come needs examination .. It is LL 0 against the costs of infrastructure that issues of the 18.~00 z:0 . development of provincial city alternatives to Melbourne 17.000 need to be considered. Figure 18 summarises the finding 16.000 of a recent study of the relative costs of urban 15.000 infrastructure among provincial cities in Victoria, 14.000 ·comparing them with the costs of the major Melbourne 13.000 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 corridors. Assuming growth "in all cases stayed within foreseeable major infrastructure cost thresholds - e.g., SOURCE: PROJECTIONS OF DWELLING COIIIIENCEIIENTS, HOUSEHOLDS AND POPULATIONS FOR STATISTICAL LOCAL AREAS IN IIETROPOLITAN IIELBOURNE; those occasioned by the need for new sewage treatment DEIIOGRAPHIC INFORIIATION PAPERS 1989-90 No.A plants or reservoirs - the study showed the patterns of DEPARTJIENT OF THE TREASURY. JUNE 1990. relative costs per person of further development in
24 ------. ------
Melbourne corridors as compared with the provincial of very high urban environmental quality are expensive. centres. Given the arbitrary assumptions on which such Can a high environmental quality be attained by new or a comparison needs to be made - e.g., that people living alternative means - e.g., urban forests and gardens, strict in growth areas pay all the costs of new transport links to social controls over waste generation - and what does Melbourne's established area - and the size of the cost this mean for urban form and the pattern of land differential relative to the high total costs of urban settlement? development, the findings are not conclusive. Any The environmental case for greatly reduced population decision to develop provincial city alternatives to growth bears examination, especially as applied to the Melbourne would need to be based on very close Melbourne metropolitan region, but it must be discussed examination of infrastructure costs. with realism. A zero-growth option would have to be effected through the virtual elimination of overseas immigration, which in tum would have to be sought in concert with other states through the Commonwealth. Environment As overseas migration slows down, internal outmigration slows down too. One cannot look at very low growth Environmental issues are widely discussed, but not often issues without considering the economic, social and in terms of urban form and planning policy. The trends humanitarian effects. While the conventional measures above indicate major environmental choices to be made. of economic well-being such as domestic production Is it better, say, to continue to foul the metropolitan may contradict other indicators of the quality of life, in region and retain the environmental quality of other many respects they are mutually reinforcing. In the regions, or better to spread development more widely to global competition among metropolitan areas for enabl~ more people to have contact with open space and economic growth, good urban environments are country areas and to avoid the environmental costs of a economic assets, and, as indicated, economic growth can very large city? Some might see this as a false contrast, provide the basis for financing environmental believing it necessary from now on for urban improvements. development to be environmentally sustainable wherever If we are to take global warming seriously and reduce it occurs - e.g., through universal tertiary sewage greenhouse gases by 20 per cent by the year 2005 treatment, widespread recycling, locally-available public (Australians are very large per capita producers of transport and an enforced or induced pattern of houses and establishments that ensures short trips between greenhouse gases and Victoria accounts for 28 per cent of Australia's fossil fuel use) then there are major issues activities. But conventional methods for the attainment
Figure 18. Infrastructure costs of metropolitan growth corridors and provincial centres
20,000
18,000
,-... 16,000 ~.,_... c: 14,000 0 .....(/.) Q) 12,000 0...... Q) 10,000 .....0.. (/.) u0 8,000 6,000
4,000
2,000
0 Plenty South-East Melton Merri Werribee Bendigo Geelong Ballarat Wodonga Latrobe Shepparton
• Road Network Hydraulic ij@ Energy fHmmPublic Transport [ill] Miscellaneous
Source: The future development of the Victorian Urban Growth System and the provision of Infrastructure; a paper presented to metropolis 90: 17 October 1.990
25 ------~------~------
for how we use our existing settlements and how we conventional waste disposal sites have given rise to a develop new ones, particularly for patterns of energy new generation of neighbourhood protection groups. use, transportation and energy-efficient urban form and Strategies for turning environmental problem areas into buildings. And if major climatic and sea-level changes technological or economic opportunities are ideas that did occur at the higher end of the currently anticipated will take more investigation. range, some areas would be affected by inundation, Both the Victorian and Commonwealth governments increased frequency of flooding and storms, relatively have adopted interim planning targets for the reduction rapid ecosystem changes.and altered patterns of land use. of emission of greenhouse gases. The future growth of The environmental dimensions of different densities of Victoria's population, its distribution and future patterns· urban development would become an important issue if of housing, employment and recreation have critical urban densities and a tighter urban form were to become bearing on the consumption of energy and other much stronger aims of urban policy. While the low resources and therefore on the levels of greenhouse gas density and loose form of pr~sent-day urban expansion emissions. There is a n~d to examine options for the take an enormous environmental toll through land pattern of settlement in terms of their levels of consumption, flood runoff, loss of wildlife habitat, long contribution to greenhouse emissions, particularly in car trips and consequential air pollution, it must also be terms of variations in transport. density and self acknowledged that the suburban backyard has containment policies. historically had a central place in Australian culture and ·recreation. Poorly-designed higher urban densities can Victoria's good record with parks, recreation areas, open also bring noise, environmental hazards and low space and leisure activities will need care and resources amenity. What are the tolerable limits of higher urban to maintain within likely budgets and with equitable densities and how can they be acceptably designed? access. Different styles of recreation and conservation for the new century are difficult to anticipate, and it is A new set of environmental issues will most likely therefore difficult to assess alternative urban options become even more important hazardous .land uses, against this criterion. But the value of heritage assets toxic substances, contaminated land, electromagnetic including those in country towns and rural areas, will and radiation pollution, and the relationship between become more important to local identity and tourism, health and the urban environment The huge costs of and urban design and the arts can be expected to grow in cleaning up polluted urban sites may be beyond the · importance if growth for its own sake becomes a less community's capacity or willingness to pay. Waste dominant value and if design and recreation generally management and the location of facilities such as toxic assume a larger place in Australian life. How new social incinerators, Sewage treatment plants and even values, or the affirmation of traditional values, are embodied in the future urban environment are issues for discussion. Figure 19. VIctoria, motor vehicle travel per head, 1971-1988
Km (thousands) Acc.essibility 12 The largest items of urban infrastructure are 11 tran.sportation and communication, and the link between land use and transportation is probably the single most 10 important determinant of urban form. Therefore the shortage of capital for public transport. rising car ownership and longer average length of journeys are all signs of major problems ahead. The ability of urban systems to adjust to unequal job and service distribution depends crucially on the capacity of transport systems to enable people to travel. Rising road use is an indicator of this adjustment (see Figure 19). Of course, transport services are not synonymous with access to urban opportunities, and much will need to be done to reduce the barriers of language, physical obstacles and information availability. But the crucial detenpinants of whether Melbourne should continue to grow the way it is, or whether future growth should be ·decentralised to provincial cities or other locations, and of whether rural settlements can cater for urban levels of service availability, rest on the relative costs and availability of transport.
o~~----~----~----~----r-----~ What internai form do we want for our cities, and how 71 76 79 82 85 88 different would this be from th~ past? How can YEAR transport be more financially self-supporting while SOtJ!CE: MOTOR VEHCtE USAGE SIIWEYS - ASS 26 providing essential services? Though urban models Social development cannot tell us all the answers, different land use patterns cause dramatic differences in transport operating costs, Patterns of population distribution and household with the result that urban residential densities and the· composition are easier to forecast than other social and concentration of services and employment in centres are cultural trends, and with a horizon of 40 years one can vital to the long-term fmancial viability of public only touch on some possibilities. From its progressive transport Energy issues are once again to the fore in ageing, Victoria can expect a society directed more to transport planning, but there are concerns that we are not the satisfaction of the needs of older, smaller and more learning fast enough. Further work needs to be done on female households, with the proportion of younger the transport efficiencies of different-sized settlements. households a consequence of the size of the migration The transport and land use implications of alternative program. urban forms need more discussion, for example the What levels of population growth,. and hence of relative efficiencies of corridors in Melbourne, with immigration, should be sought, noting the low level of cross-town and longer journeys, energy wastage and air influence of the state's instruments to affect population pollution relative to other more compact forms. Private growth? Some of the urban issues in the current residential and industrial development have immigration debate warrant further consideration. The predominantly occurred in the southern and eastern . issue of whether there is an optimum statewide suburbs of Melbourne, as well as most suburban population is related to concepts of resource and · commercial development. Meanwhile in the last 20 environmental capacity, usually coming down to water years major public works investment in transport has availability. Alternatively the rate of growth rather than taken place in the western half of the metropolitan area total size of population is seen by some as the more such as the Westgate Bridge, the Underground Loop and important issue for its effect on the manageability - or Tullamarine Airport. The trend towards the further otherwise - of urban development. industrial and commercial expansion of the south-eastern suburbs creates a problem for transport, particularly for Planning for social development in new Australian those firms with interstate and international markets. suburbs has not been successful despite technical improvements in human service co-ordination and wide Melbourne's gateways are mainly to the north and west recognition of the social problems of new urban of the city, such as the Tullamarine and Essendon development. The implications of the trends discussed airports {and perhaps Avalon in the future), the port of above are that urban form itself is not a primary factor of Melbourne, and the interstate road and rail links to social well-being, but that contiguous expansion, initial Adelaide, Perth, Sydney and Brisbane. The lack of an community development services, user-friendly public easily 'extendible' road capacity between east and west transport, nearby jobs, local social planning mechanisms would restrict the efficient movement of goods and linked to resource allocation and the ability to gain services within the metropolitan area and between the facilities from developers through joint planning and prosperous, south-eastern commercial sector and its developer contributions are all important considerations. interstate and international markets. Our suburbs are becoming more varied, but established Major transport projects, for example the proposed very areas are changing too, often faster than service fast train, faster trains and good roads to Bendigo or providers can keep up with, resulting in mismatches Ballarat, could help create successful Satellite cities with between people and services. their own employment base eventually arising from the pattern of interaction with, and decentralisation from metropolitan Melbourne. Alternatively, an attempt to tum provincial cities into large satellite cities could just create elongated and scattered corridors, given the · Summary possibility of intermediate land development between metropolis and satellites. Current trends and likely future developments have a major affect on the directions and nature of the urban Innqvative transport systems which incorporate planning system. In particular, discussion about current significant fuel savings might affect urban form. trends and future projections can miss the important Telecommunications technology is not the answer to the issue of what we wish to have expressed in our towns . problems of urban form: transport substitution may and cities, and in any plans for their development and result, but telecommunications will also boost transport, conservation. For example, it is possible to draw home workplaces will compete with concentrations of scenarios for the productive city, the fair city, the access points, full information utili~es will be expensive sustainable city, the accessible city, and so on, with such and initially less than universally available. values reinforcing or contradicting one another. The Nevertheless there is a competitive necessity for guiding principles for the development of urban Melbourne and perhaps other centres to lead through settlements in the future are a very important issue. planning for high information-intensive areas, with True, urban settlements change slowly, arid as much teleports and broadband area networks. Wide access to through the market as by any plan, but without a debate information resources makes good economic sense as on the values, goals and objectives of urban development well as being socially just, and this access may or may in Victoria, the choice of development options would be not be strongly conditioned by urban form. arbitrary. ·
27 One planning issue is· the extent to which we wish to change the direction of trends already under way. At one extreme, a highly interventionist urban strategy could radically change the process and mould the pattern of urban development to meet social and environmental objectives. At the other extreme, a liberal free-market approach through deregulation could place these matters outside public policy, where urban change would be the accumulated result of individual hm~sehold and corporate dec~ions. In summary, the implications of likely trends are for economic growth and immigration to continue to drive Melbourne's growth, and for new jobs in particular to be concentrated in Melbourne's east. and south-east and not in many urban areas where the workforce is likely to grow, let alone in rural areas. Despite current economic conditions, population growth will keep the pressure of underlying housing demand on public and private housing and on residential land supply. But the capacity to provide the conventional form of suburban housing will be greatly reduced, particularly in Melbourne, by the very high cost of infrastructure, increasing inefficiencies in its provision along corridors, and hidden subsidies that have encouraged low densities and waste of land. Urban consolidation will remain a key issue over the coming decades. Rising environmental standards·, the need to address global warming issues and a widespread desire for more sustainable forms of urban development also lead to the issue of whether the containment of Melbourne and the promotion of nearby provincial cities or smaller-scale growth at other places would be a better alternative to the continuous outward growth of Melbourne. The feasibility of such a strategy rests particularly on· whether inter-urban transport provision is more cost effective, and environmentally better than continued incremental improvements to transport within and between Melbourne's corridors. Access to services and information is of course more than a transportation issue, and in the development of new telematic infrastructure it will be essential to keep access open and to include more remote settlements in the information society. Social justice demands a fresh look at the pattern of urban development in Victoria, not only the availability of human services appropriate to the needs of local communities, but, fundamentally, more equal access to employment and sources of wealth, against current trends towards less equality. The issue of what constitutes an equitable urban form, and even whether that is a sensible question, is still not resolved and could be further discussed. It is also becoming clear that the needs and perspectives of women in our cities should lead to a reconsideration of urban design and transport priorities. To decide on the best overall pattern of urban development in Victoria, and to improve local planning, it is important for us to examine what values are most important such as productivity, social justice, sustainability, health and safety, creativity, access and iriternationalisation. The next chapter gives more specific pictures of future possibilities and some urban development scenarios.
28 4. Options
Previous sections have described key trends in the The quality of outcome, whichever concept is adopted, growth of Victorian urban centres and issues that would will depend mainly on: arise if present trends were to continue. The question • the enhancement of the natural features; now is to what extent trends should be enhanced or • the excellence of the infrastructure and modified. This chapter identifies four main develop communication systems; ment alternatives for Melbourne and surrounding • the visual and functional quality of the urban regions. environment. The concepts cannot be seen as exclusive options, as In the following pages, four options for Victoria's urban there might be many more if all possible combinations system are outlined (see Figure 20): of principles and opportunities were considered. The 1. Compact Melbourne concepts nevertheless represent the most characteristic 2. Twin cities extremes of possible development alternatives. As they 3. Newtowns all start from a common physical base and a common set 4. Regional centres of social and economic conditions, they should be They are all based on the 5.95 million forecast considered as a group of alternatives with different population of Victoria by the year 2031, which means emphases of change rather than radical departures from that approximately 1.8 million additional people have to the present. be accommodated in the state between 1986 and 2031.
Figure 20. Development options for Greater Melbourne and Victoria
Compact Melbourne Twin cities Corridor growth, containment, Emphasis on South-Eastern Growth Area consolidation
2
3 4
New towns Regionai centres New cities, Emphasis on established centres, corridor growth limited some consolidation
29 This concept is based on containing metropolitan Melbourne in established suburbs and designated priority growth areas. Higher densities in new developments and intensification of uses in redevelopment areas would provide for the better use of services and infrastructure. Effective infrastructure systems and public amenities would create new, exciting, and cost-effective opportunities for residents and businesses in the metropolitan area. Regional centres would develop in a more compact way and with improved linkages to central Melbourne. Higher average densities would provide scope for different housing types and lot sizes, and ensure a higher regard for environmental assets. Urban sprawl in the outer areas of Melbourne would be curtailed (see Figure 21).
Metropolitan density demand among residents and is often considered the main asset of Melbourne's lifestyle. Melbourne is among the ten world cities with the lowest urban density, with only 18 persons per hectare. This is To achieve a greater compactness in Melbourne's future caused not only by low density development and sprawl urban form, therefore, an increase in density would have at its fringe, but by relatively low density in the middle to be well balanced and introduced gradually, so that by and inner suburbs. This makes Melbourne inefficient in: the year 2031 the total metropolitan density could be • accessibility to employment concentrations; increased by at least 25 to 30 per cent. • construction and use of public utilities and roads; To minimise adverse effects, the containment policy has • fuel consumption. to capitalize on all opportunities in the growth corridors, Low density is also one of the main reasons for the established residential suburbs, and commercial and continuous encroachment into environmentally sensitive industrial areas of metropolitan Melbourne, as well as in areas. However, low density housing is currently in high the major regional centres.
Figure 21. Concept 1: Compact Melbourne
CBD
HIGH LEVEL OF CONSOLIDATION GROWTH AREA
30 Containment policies Population Containment policies have existed in Melbourne and · The established suburbs of contained Melbourne would other Australian capital cities for some time. They accommodate an additional 300,000 people. This would gained momentum in the late 1970s in response to the be achieved through new developments in the inner city energy crisis and higher interest rates, which raised the -particularly Southbank, the Docklands and Jolimont. cost of housing and public infrastructure. In Melbourne, Consolidation, dual occupancy policies, and the Board of Works laid down urban consolidation· redevelopment in the middle and even outer suburbs objectives in 1981 and the present Government's would also contribute to achieving a more compact Metropolitan Policy, Shaping Melbourne's Future, re- · metropolis. These measures would take into account the affirmed this approach in 1987. · sensitivity of existing residential.areas. To date the main policy initiatives have been new dual The main part of the additional future metropolitan occupancy. provisions, and a strengthened district centres population of about 820,000 would be located in the policy, which encourages the clustering of commercial, urban growth corridors which will be planned in a community and entertainment activities in suburban compact way close to established urban areas. They centres. · would provide the opportunity for all types of housing . rieeds and densities, but with an overall average density Some policies - such as continued financial assis~ce to about 30 per cent higher than in other fringe public transport and the location of stat~wide development areas. Urban sprawl in the metropolitan entertainment and cultural a~ctions in central outer areas would be strongly discouraged. Melbourne - in effect support urban consolidation. · Other policies, like protecting new fringe dwellers from The regional centres would experience substantial the full cost of infrastructure, rqn against urban development. The bigger centres of Geelong, Bendigo consolidation. and Ballarat would grow to a major threshold capacity. Wodonga, Shepparton and the Latrobe Valley towns Social changes combined with economic factors clearly would develop moderately. The total population require a change in the concept of housing and · accommodated by the regional centres would amount io employment location and infrastructure. There are thus about 400,000. at least four good reasons Lo support containment policies. The balance of 280,000 people would live in the remaining urban centres and in the rural areas of Households - Households consisting of two adults and Victoria. dependent children now ·account for less than 40 per cent of all households. This proportion will decline further in time. In their place there will be more mature couples, Employment sharing adults, and more widowed people - some of Compact Melbourne requires that employment whom may be only too willing to live in suitably concentrations are well defined and located close to new designed and located medium-density housing. population and transport corridors, Stronger emphasis Changing suburbs - The short-term economic outlook is would be given to new employment in the outer suburbs, such that new fringe development may be too expensive but specifically in the north and the west ·to either for government to continue subsidising or for the counterbalance the current drive to the south-east which consumer to bear a larger share of the cost. The disadvantages the other metropolitan areas. The conditions that created Melbourne's suburbia - easy emphasis on district centres would still be high. Central access to employment, cheap housing, low interest rates Melbourne, over-invested in recent years, would receive and cheap petrol - have all but disappeared. Alternatives qualified support in areas of major redevelopment may now be viable. · opportunities, like the Docklands and tourist-associated developments. Employment- The number of jobs in the suburbs has Support would be given to employment generation in substantially increased in recent years. New regional centres. This, however, would require a employment is concentrating in the south-eastern stronger reliance on local assets, the creation of new and suburbs and in some northern and south-western better use of existing education opportunities, and the locations. Still, central Melbourne remains by far the establishment of more effective links with metropolitan largest employment centre in the state with more than Melbourne. 600,000 jobs within 15km from the central city (CBD). However, if the trend of jobs creation in the suburbs accelerates, in about 40 years time the pattern of key Transport and communication activities would develop from one centre to many. One of the main benefits of compact Melbourne would Public transport - The existing public transport system be more efficient use of transport opportunities, until would continue to provide reaSonable metropolitan-wide now not fully utilised as the urban structure is not dense access. The radial network would be able to enough. The extension of rail systems in the Plenty accommodate more jobs and housing along established Valley Growth Area, electritlcation of the Cranbourne lines and encourage new concentrations along proposed railway line and an additional connection to Werribee transport routes in the developing suburbs. · are proposed. Through a public-transport-oriented
31 design of new development areas, the new investments would be cost-effective, provide for energy efficiency and improve access to employment and public facilities. The transport linkages between Melbourne and the major regional centres would be improved mainly throt.Jgh more reliable and faster public transport. The Very Fast Train, if built, would be an important transport system, facilitating the integration of same northern provincial cities with Melbourne. To improve links between Melbourne and the major regional centres, new communication techniques would also be used.
Physical infrastructure An urban form based on containment principles and greater intensity of use is considered by service agencies to be the most energy-efficient and cost-effective. The development pattern combining containment and future outward growth directed to growth corridors has · been in place in Melbourne for twenty years. The state planning authorities and service agencies have geared their forward planning to accommodate it Plans have been drawn and· provisions made to cater for this growth pattern. Therefore, infrastructure costs are generally cheaper compared to other forms of development.
Public amenities Higher concentration of uses provides a good opportunity for most efficient utilisation and convenient access to cultural facilities; education and health centres. They would be concentrated in major activity centres in· Melbourne and provincial cities close to major public transport networlcs. Dispersed development, established against the major objectives of the concept of compactness, would only be served at lower standards.
Open space Compact development provides, on one hand, the opportunity for a well-structured policy of environment protection and, on the other, good access to recreation areas and open space. Metropolitan green wedges would be protected and the areas not required for urban purposes would be back-zoned to non-urban purposes. In each growth area a major metropolitan park would be created to satisfy most regional recreation needs. A similar principle as in the metropolitan growth areas would apply to the major regional centres. A careful assessment would be made to protect natural assets and good agricultural land from urban encroachment.
32 This concept is based on the notion of creating a second major metropolitan focus, in the south-east, (for instance at Dandenong), or the north-west with good access to Melbourne Airport at Tullamarine. Dandenong is used in this section as an example. The development of new concentrations of employment and cultural, administrative and technical facilities in the Dandenong area would provide better access to amenities for the rapidly growing population, and a new focus for businesses and public institutions in the south-east. The balance of metropolitan Melbourne would develop according to current trends. The central city (CBD) would develop according to its well-defined opportunities, but it would be relieved from excessive pressures imposed on it by its present monocentric structure. A separate transport system, well integrated with the existing metropolitan rail-system, might be built to service the new centre. The regional centres would grow according to their current trends with the exception of the Latrobe Valley which might accelerate its growth because of its favourable position, close to the new Dandenong centre (see Figure 22).
Consequences of development trends Sub-metropolitan centres have developed elsewhere in the world. In London, Croydon, 20km to the south of The eastern and southern metropolitan suburbs have the city centre, became a large office centre in the 1960s developed in the past faster than the rest of Melbourne. and 1970s. This reflects the attractive natural environment and more In Australia, the rise of Parramatta as a subsidiary office favourable geological conditions east of Melbourne. centre to the city of Sydney was the result of a deliberate The clear rectangular grid pattern in that part of policy to take jobs out closer to the expanding pop Melbourne, established in the second half of the ulation of Sydney's western suburbs. The relocation of nineteenth century, also contributed to the faster Commonwealth and state government departments has development of that area in comparison to other suburbs fostered the growth of Parramatta as a new office centre. of Melbourne. Now, however, this growth extends more Historically, Melbourne's physical expansion has been than 30km from central Melbourne without any major lopsided to the east, but its crescent shaped urban form centre purposefully built for the existing and expected around the bay has retained some centrality, as compared population of more than 1 million people east of Monash with Sydney. Unlike Sydney, Melbourne has an office University. The central city no longer has the relevance policy that significantly favours the central city. it once had to many metropolitan dwellers - who can Transport improvements, such as the underground loop work, shop, eat and be entertained without relying on the and radial freeways, have sought to retain the central centre. city's accessibility for its metropolitan clientele.
Figure 22. Concept 2: Twin cities
PLENTY
~ MELTON
DANDENONG
0 CBD NEW CENTRE FOR THE SOUTH-EAST e EAST AND SOUTH-EAST ~ SOME CONSOLIDATION ~ ~ GROWTH AREAS
33 There are several reasons to support the concept of a Low-density and rural-residential areas would be new centre in the south-east allowed mainly in the northern and western outer areas of Melbourne and to a lesser degree in the east. Population - In population terins the geographical centre of Melbourne is 12km to the south-east of the central The regional centres would grow in a similar way to the city. Population trends suggest that the role of the south compact concept with the exception of the Latrobe east would become stronger in time. The large expected Valley towns. These towns might experience stronger growth of the population of Knox over the next 10 years, development because of their proximity to the new the even larger growth in the South-Eastern Growth major metropolitan centre. Geelong, on the other hand, Area (Berwick-Pakenham and Cranbourne) and the might have less favourable development opportunities ~lower but continued growth of population in the and would accommodate less population. In total, the Mornington Peninsula would all fmd Dandenong a regional centres would accommodate about 380,000 convenient focus. additional people. Employment - The second greatest concentration of employment in Victoria is in the south-east with a rapid expansion of jobs accounting for about three-quarters of Employment total metropolitan job growth. The centre of gravity of The distribution of employment would follow the that concentration is located somewhere between existing trend with concentration of new jobs in the east Oakleigh and Dandenong, and within 15km of and south-east of Melbourne. This would be Dandenong there are currently more than 220,000 jobs. economically attractive in the short and medium-term but might later demand strong infrastructure investments. Tertiary education/employment- The l~ation of to ameliorate future congestion experienced in the inner Monash University, the second biggest university in suburbs. This, however, could be counterbalanced by Melbourne, together with the Technology Precinct and better access to jobs for the existing population of the the Monash Medical Centre provides a new focus for east and south. tertiary education and research thus creating a firm base for employment.generation and for the supply of highly In this concept the north and west of Melbourne might skilled professionals; be disadvantaged. There should, however, be enough support for new job generation in those areas based on Dandenong's strengths - Dandenong has already shown the western ring road (under construction), some existing signs of developing as an alternative to some CBD specialised industries, and the international airport. functions. The Australian Taxation Office is located in the CBD and at Dandenong. Other institutions, such as The regional centres located in the north and west of the Family Court and the Education and Immigration Victoria would be further distanced from major new Departments, have Dandenong offices to serve their employment concentrations and, therefore, would have many clients, who see the central city as remote. So, for to rely more strongly on their own resources. some functions, Dandenong has already become more than a regional centre - it has the early makings of a major sub-metropolitan centre. Transport and communication Twin cities also builds on aspects of the compact In the short term the twin cities concept could be based concept by introducing higher densities and more on the existing transport system which has always had a compact development. However, because of the tendency to extend in a south-easterly direction. favourable position of the south-east, other parts of However, the accelerated growth of the south-east might metropolitan Melbourne might require a less stringent soon require major improvements and new investments application of consolidation policies. This might result to serve the extensive development there. Major in lower densities in outer areas west and north of problems might occur in those municipalities which Melbourne. surround Dandenong where development pressures would be strong. There are sufficient land reservations for road construction but a complete lack of a structured Population public transport network, except for the railway lines Consolidation and other containment policies would which are all oriented towards the central city. There provide for about 200,000 additional people in · are, however, no defined public transport routes which established metropolitan suburbs. Some strong could link the railway lines in a south to north direction. consolidation might apply to the new centre, Dimdenong, The new development areas in the South-Eastern Growth and the surrounding municipalities of Springvale, Knox, Area would go beyond present projections to house an Oakleigh, Glen Waverley, and Berwick. additional 400,000 people, and would also require a new and efficient public transport network to counteract high The priority growth areas in the north and the west car dependency. would only grow to their lower capacity as the emphasis would be on the South-Eastern Growth Area, which The provincial cities might be disadvantaged in transport would accommodate about 50 per cent of the total investment The Latrobe Valley towns could, however, 800,000 additional population capacity available in the benefit from the accelerated growth to the east. metropolitan growth areas.
34 ------~------~~~
Physical infrastructure As mentioned, the deveiopment pattern for metropolitan Melbourne has been lopsided. This is particularly evident in preferred employment locations, population distribution and travel patterns. From an infrastructural viewpoint, there are certain advantages associated with this pattern, namely: • forward planning by service agencies has proceeded according to. this development trend; • the twin city is ideally situated regarding its proximity · to the largest water sources in Victoria; • sewage collection and treatment would not be a problem as far as Pakenham, but strategies would be required for areas east of the township; • power supply should be readily available, as it is closest to Melbourne's power source - the Latrobe Valley. Drainage in the Westernport catchment would be costly. Furthermore, high sewerage costs would be incurred if · suitable treatment systems have to be connect with the south eastern purification plant. . ·
Public amenities· The development of anew centre in the most populated region of metropolitan Melbo~e would create new· opportunities for the location of major community facilities for education, health and leisure. The facilities would create a new focus for social integration in the outer suburbs and could relieve central Melbourne from congestion and over-investment. Dandenong, second · orily to central Melbourne, would also exercise an additional role in supporting the other district centres in the east and south.
Open space The twin cities concept could create a potential threat to the environmentally sensitive parts of south-eastern Melbourne because of large scale developments, which might require encroachment into areaS considered until now for non-urban purposes only. This may lead to the re-examination of the corridor-wedge framework in the region. :Special measures would be. required to minimise .the impact on the environment and provide sufficient · recreation areas for the future urban population.
35 This concept is based on three new towns, each of about 100,000 to 300,000 people, on the edge of metropolitan Melbourne. Together with Geelong, they would form a ring of urban centres about 60-90km from the central city. In such a concept, the continuous outward growth of Melbourne would be stopped at its already defined urban boundaries. New centres, well related to the metropolis, would have a high level of self-containment, both for work and living, with special regard to environmental issues and lifestyle attitudes. Unconstrained design opportunities would allow for a comprehensively planned new urban environment New infrastructure systems would be required but their costs could be offset by innovative development arrangements and joint public and private initiatives. Regional centres would grow according to their medium capacity but would also relate to the new centres in relation to new employment opportunities (see Figure 23).
The new town concept they could be located in attractive but less environmentally sensitive areas. The new town concept has been widely applied around the world, particularly in the 1950s and 1960s in Europe A new town concept could be adopted for Melbourne's and in the 1980s in Asia, to: future growth because of the: • counteract the unconstrained expansion of • need to define clearly the outer boundaries of the metropolitan areas; metropolis which, if not curtailed, could extend • provide a better living environment; endlessly; • minimise the pressure on existing congested urban • existence of several attractive but less centres. environmentally sensitive sites well suited for the location of major self-contained towns well connected New towns have not fulfilled all expectations, as growth with the metropolis; of overcrowded metropolises has continued unabated. They have created, however, opportunities for the • opportunities for innovative design concepts which, if provision of new infrastructure and transport systems unconstrained by existing circumstances, could lead and a better alternative for environment protection, as to new urban concepts and lifestyles.
Figure 23. Concept 3: New towns
MERRI
0 CBD SOUTH -EASTERN ~ GROWTH AREA
® NEW TOWNS
36 Some sites are particularly suitable for the development activity centres of Greater Melbourne. The northern new of new centres, in the north, the west, and the eastern town could be on the VFf route. The road networl< end of the south-east would also be extended, but public transport would be favoured in medium and longer distance travel to the Each new urban centre would have a high degree of self metropolis. The new cities would develop innovative, containment with plenty of local employment internal transport systems using the most recent opportunities. Planned with traditional new town tech.nological inventions. The internal systems would principles, they would be based on a high quality, public, connect to the existing metropolitan railway network internal transport system - possibly a combination of which would remain the main transport system. light-rail and buses or other innovative systems. Advanced communication systems would.provide for Urban densities could be planned along urban easy and direct connections to all required locations, thus consolidation principles to reduce land development minimising the notion of remoteness so often criticised costs and enhance the viability of public transport in new town developments. · systems. Open land or green belts would separate the new urban Physical infrastructure centres from the established suburbs of Melbourne to provide both breathing space and the opportunity for The new town concept does raise some interesting each centre to develop a separate identity. Each of the questions regarding the provision of physical potential new. centres would be located on a major infrastructure. At the macro level, the model is based on highway and railway and would thus have excellent a decentralised development pattern for Melbourne. access to central Melbourne. This leads to high infrastructure cost and inefficient use of infrastructure facilities. However, at the level of the The proposed concept" would extend the metropolitan town, the unconstrained planning of the sites might area which could be defined as 'Greater Melbourne'. allow the development of new processes which recycle most of the products used in urban activities leading to a Population very efficient use-of its infrastructure systems. In this concept most future population growth, about 1,250,000 people, would live in Greater Melbourne. Public amenities Each of the three new towns would accommodate about The new town concept provides an ample opportunity 150,000-200,000 people (growing eventually to about for a well-structured network of community facilities. 300,000). The remaining growth would occur in the This would require, particularly in the initial phase of existing corridor development areas. Established urban development, special financial assistance until the new areas would only experience limited development. The population and businesses were able to support the new regional centres would develop slightly below their facilities. medium capacity, accommodating in total about 350,000 additional people. In the rest of Victoria only 200,000. Public amenities in regional centres would not be additional people would be accommodated as dispersed compromised and their inhabitants would be provided development in the outer areas of Melbourne would be with new opportunities due to the creation of new limited. activity centres, inuch closer to their residences than the central city of Melbourne. Employment Open space Self-containment is the key to the success of the new town concept. This would require the transfer of some New towns have always provided extensive open spaces businesses and activities to the new towns which might and recreation facilities. The proposed cities {because of · otherwise have been located in the established suburbs their location) provide a variety of opportunities for or growth corridors . That, however, should not green spaces. They would easily relate to the minimise job generation opportunities in regional surrounding natural environment. Through compact centres. Good communication would also provide for development of the new cities and advanced efficient links to employment concentrations in the infrastructure systems the impact on environmentally established urban areas and particularly the central city. sensitive areas could be minimised. Diversity of employment would be essential to allow for easy adjustment to market trends and provide a variety of choices for the residents of the new urban centres and their catchments.
Transpor~ .and communication The transport network would be based on the existing rail system but would be extensively modernised and upgraded to provide for fast connections with the major
37 This concept is based on diverting a substantial proportion of future population growth to the six major regional centres - Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga and the Latrobe Valley towns. Of all four options it is the most far-reaching proposal for spatial change in Victoria. In this concept Melbourne's growth would be curtailed over the next 40 years and new development would be based on already well-established urban centres. Melbourne would retain its main role in the new urban system but its overwhelming dominance would decline in favour of a more equal distribution of activities and residential opportunities. The increasing congestion and concentration of pollutants in Melbourne would diminish. The new centres would grow to a size which would not only provide plenty of new employment but also amenities which now are missing in some of the regional centres, specifically university education, medical care and large-scale cultural facilities. New communication and transport systems would facilitate the establishment of a multi-nuclear system of activities in Victoria. Centra,lised functions, now concentrated in metropolitan Melbourne, should gradually reduce in importance with the increased role of regional centres, but stay at a level adequate for Melbourne's national and international role (see Figure 24).
A time for change The six regional centres have many assets. Foremost are both a capacity to cope with more urban growth and a Although development in Victoria has been traditionally willingness or desire for it to happen. centred on Melbourne, there is now a case for reviewing the extent of Melbourne's primacy. Is it, for instance, in The key issue for the development of the regional the overall economic interest of Victoria for so much centres, as with new centres on the metropolitan fringe, development to be concentrated in such a small would be their ability to generate new activities and proportion of the state? Without major infrastructure employment and capitalise on available infrastructure investment, is it likely that Melbourne would become capacities. congested, and that this would be a deterrent to investment and to the overall economic performance of Should major improvements to Melbourne's the state? metropolitan transport system fail to materialise - either owing to declining real levels of investment in roads or The estimated lower capacity of Melbourne's growth to community opposition to new roads - more firms may areas is about 700,000 people. Allowing for about be attracted to the relatively congestion-free 150,000 additional people in the rest of Melbourne and, environment that regional centres can offer. Those say, 200,000-400,000 for the rest of Victoria, the centres which appear to have the most potential are those additional population which would live in the regional with the best access to the metropolitan market, the ports centres could be at least 700,000-800,000 people. and the airport, in that order.
Figure 24. Concept 4: Regional centres
SHEPPARTON ~
BENDIGO ~
BALLARAT ~ METROPOLITAN
MOE ~~ RARALGON
MORWELL
CONSOLIDATED MELBOURNE
METROPOLITAN GROWTH AREAS
REGIONAL CENTRES
38 There are equity grounds for promoting the development The rest of Victoria would also grow quite substantially of the Victorian regional centres. In the 1980s the · as the remaining country towns and the outer areas of the brittleness of much country employment (with its strong six regional centres would experience new development reliance on appropriate climatic conditions and opportunities. This could provide for about 300,000 international commodity markets) was apparent Income additional people. disparities between metropolitan and non-metropolitan Victoria also increased. High-income, high-growth industries are now almost exclusively located in Employment metropolitan Melbourne. The size of the new centres would provide a better On the other hand, the six provincial towns no longer opportunity for businesses as the population would suffer the extent of cultural and intellectual isolation provide a larger labour force, most probably more skilled · they once did. Living in these towns has now become a · as education facilities might now be built in a more real alternative for many city dwellers. In terms of efficient way. New employment would thus be created living choice and economic diversity, it would appear in the service sector, now underdeveloped, and in some desirable for Vic.toria to have a greater range of city non-existent activities (e.g. university education). A sizes than it presently has. bigger variety of jobs could minimise the internal migration to Melbourne and other major Australian Until now, regional centres have been treated as part of urban centres. Melbourne's hinterland; they have never been a real alternative to Melbourne since the early years of Melbourne would still retain its role as an international settlement. Circumstances have now changed in all centre of activities and the major hub on the south coast aspects, be it in the economy,lifestyle, social of Australia. Nevertheless, an internal adjustment would requirements or technology, but the basic development be required to. enable a structured shift of activities to objectives for Victoria are still dominated by Melbourne. the regional centres. This perception and the resistance to change have prevented the regional centres from growing to their natural capacities and to a size which could provide the Transport and communication basis for self-generated activities and high-order social The regional centres concept requires an innovative amenities. Once this perception is overcome, new approach to transport. For many decades private vehicle opportunities, not only for those centres but also for their transport has been the main link between the regional regions would be created. This could then relieve centres as the public transport system is generally metropolitan Melbourne from the unmanageable · inefficient. The new role of those centres would require circumstances which are already experienced by many a complete reassessment of the rail system with regard to metropolises. personal and freight movements. New telecommunica tion systems should also facilitate the fast contact between different urban centres, irrespective of their Population distance and location. The proposed VFf .could stimulate the northern regional centres. The established suburbs of Melbourne would accommo date only an additional 150,000 people, as the emphasis The transport system in metropolitan Melbourne would on high densities and consolidation would be applied develop as in the compact concept However, the only in areas of very favourable conditions for transport requirements in the growth areas and existing redevelopment and containment. Some areas now ear suburbs would not be as. great as in the other concepts marked for development could be used for public · because Melbourne would have less growth than amenities and open space. suggested by current trends~ The growth corridors of Melbourne would be planned to accommodate only about 650,000 additional people, as Physical infrastructure they would only be developed to their lower capacity. They would still comply with consolidation policies but To accommodate about 200,000-300,000 people in some regional centres would require extensive augmentation would leave substantial amounts of land, now envisaged of infrastructure systems to a standard equivalent to as potential urban, in agricultural use. Low density and metropolitan Melbourne. Water supply may pose a rural residential would be minimised and the sprawl of problem for some centres, and sewage treatment and urban development in the outer areas of Melbourne disposal could also prove to be .costly. Infrastructure would be curtailed. facilities servicing a centre in country Victoria would be The regional centres would become large cities which of a local and regional scale. could much beuer meet the requirements of their communities and businesses. Geelong's population could reach about 350,000 and both Bendigo and Public amenities Ballarat could contain about 250,000 people each. The This concept would provide opportunity for the Latrobe Valley towns could form an integrated system establishment of cost-effective amenities at a standard which would accommodate about 200,000 people by the now unavailable in the regional centres. This relates i·,. year2031. particularly to tertiary education, cultural facilities, and
39 hospitals but also to other community facilities which Open space could offer a much wider service to their population. The concept allows for a well-planned development of Those amenities could also serve the larger catchment of the open space system on a statewide basis. In the regional centres much better, thus elevating living metropolitan Melbourne the existing open space standards in the more remote areas of rural Victoria. framework could be significantly improved as the Amenities in metropolitan Melbourne would retain their pressure of urban development would be lessened. The standards of service and their international significance. bigger the size of the regional centres, the better the opportunities for the implementation of full-scale parks and recreation facilities would be.
,··.~- .. ' .' . ·\~ ~ \ . . . . '
. .
Figure 25 shows the possible distribution of population in Melbourne and regional growth areas for each of the concepts outlined in this section. A comparison of totals shows how different options could affect Victoria's development
Figure 25: Urban Growth Concepts: Estimated population increases 1986-2031
1 2 3 4 Compact Twin New Regional Melbourne cities towns centres
Melbourne Growth Areas Werribee 160,000 100,000 150,000 130,000 South-Eastern 300,000 420,000 420,000 250,000 Plenty & Merri 280,000 200,000 400,000 200,000 Melton 60,000 60,000 50,000 50,000 Bacchus Marsh 20,000 20,000 150,000 20,000
Sub-total 820,000 800,000 1,170,000 650,000 Rest of Melbourne 300,000 200,000 80,000 150,000
Total Melbourne 1,120,000 1,000,000 1,250,000 800,000
Country Regions Growth Areas Ballarat 70,000 60,000 60,000 125,000 Bendigo 70,000 60,000 60,000 125,000 Wodonga 50,000 40,000 50,000 100,000 Shepparton 20,000 20,000 20,000 50,000 Geelong 140,000 120,000 120,000 200,000 Latrobe Valley 40,000 80,000 40,000 100,000
Sub-total 400,000 380,000 350,000 700,000 * Rest of Victoria- Non-Urban 280,000 420,000 200,000 300,000
Total Country Victoria 680,000 800,000 550,000 1,000,000
Total Victoria 1,800,000 1,800,000 1,800,000 1,800,000
* Including areas on the outskirts of the Metropolitan Statistical District (MSD) such as Kilmore, Gisbome, Buln Buln, and Warragul.
40 5. Implementation
Any discussion about implementing strategic plans has overseas experience, the most noted recent example to acknowledge two fundamentals. First, about two being the redevelopment of the London Docklands. The thirds of Victoria's 1990 built environment will still be transformation from obsolescence to one of the largest here in forty years time. commercial redevelopments in the world has often been lauded as an example of the triumph of free .market Second, the pattern of urban development is the end economics. However, the area has received heavy result of many decisions by ·businesses and households, public subsidy through the non~imposition of levies, which will only move to a new area when it is taxes and rates. The absence of critical public advantageous for them to do so. In our mixed economy, infrastructure has caused congestion and much government cannot 'allocate' population or employment, development was speculative and remains unoccupied but it can influence the distribution of opportunities long after completion. through a range of measures. Second, all new residential areas, particularly those in Traditionally, planning has relied largely on regulation ·the priority growth areas, would provide for a minimum . and control as the means of guiding development. In the density of 15 dwelling units or about 40 persons per future, planning will need to apply a range of fmancial hectare. This could be achieved through the definition and strategic planning and management instruments to deal successfully with the issues raised by an of specific planning and design requirements in strategic increasingly dynamic urban society. Each option will and statutory documents. require a different Q'lix and emphasis of these measures Third, there are opportunities resulting from new to guide future urban development. planning regulations. Dual occupancy has been generally accepted and now involves about 15 per cent of all dwelling approvals in Melbourne. The foreshadowed statutory introduction ·of the Residential Development Provisions may at last provide the means • Compact Melbourne to overcome the delays and impediments associated with medium density housing. To accommodate about 300,000 extra people in the established suburbs of Melbourne, reyond the estimated Other measures (yet untried in Melbourne) include the 800,000 additional capacity of the growth areas, major requirement that commercial developments over a new policy initiatives would be necessary. certain size (say 4,000 m2 of floorspace) or value (say over $10m) include a residential component. Bonus Urban consolidation attempts to capitalise on existing systems may apply in certain circumstances. infrastructure, thereby reducing the demand for and public costs of new urban development. A concentrated Past practices suggest that urban consolidation would settlement facilitates the viability of public transport and only become feasible if there were complementary in doing so can give individual mobility to some - regulatory measures to ensure that the existing residents particularly the disabled, the young, the old - who in of the established suburbs were not given (de-facto) lower densities would be left isolated. Compact, public rights to object to the houses of the newcomers. transport-oriented cities are also more adaptable to the range of uncertain energy and greenhouse futures Finally, there are infrastructure pricing ~d other urban mentioned in sections 2 and 3. management measures. Pricing policies that maintain or even lower real public transport costs would encourage Opportunities to realise the urban consolidation potential residential consolidation as well as being consistent with of Melbourne fall into four groups. environmental goals to reduce exhaust emissions. First come major redevelopment opportunities within the built-up area- Southbank, Lynch's Bridge, Jolimont, If development charges were at least to vary in line with Docklands, Como, Albion, Bayside, Willsmere and the real cost of servicing an area, more cost-effective perhaps, in the longer term, Essendon Airport. development would result The price of land and housing at the fringe would rise substantially, resulting There are also many smaller sites in the older residential in a search for development sites closer in. Full suburbs which could be redeveloped for mixed uses, recoupment of the infrastructure costs from fringe. such as Vickers Ruwolt in.Richmond or the public car development, would increase the cost of new housing. parks off Chapel Street in Prahran. These sites could accommodate an extra 150,000 people. Revised rating policies that move more towards site value rating, enhanced Urban Land Authority activity in It has been suggested that redevelopment of large areas established suburbs, and tax incentives for depreciation such as the Docklands may be best controlled by on medium-density, as compared with low-density development corporations using various forms of development are all measures which are now worthy of incentives to stimulate private investment. Melbourne consideration. Urban consolidation policies require can learn much from the successes and failures of perseverance as the built environment changes slowly.
4~ . A third measure could be the establishment of a special Twin cities development authority for planning and managing the Dandenong is the gateway to the South-Eastern Growth development of the centre. A key to its success would be to reflect, in its composition, the variety of interests Area which, over the next fifteen years, will have a . that are vested in the centre, that is, property and population larger than Canberra's. Already there are a commercial development interests, established owners million people living within half an hour's drive from the and traders, local coun~ils and regional organisations in centre. Dandenong has important infrastructure assets the centre's catchment, and state government agencies which can be built on a railway that can serve the South involved in land-use planning, transport, and community Eastern Growth Area and iink it with the central city, development. good internal roads and provision for road widenings that serve an even greater area, and proximity to water and sewerage systems. The growth of population and economic activities in the New towns southern and eastern suburbs would lead to an increase in that region's income. There would seem, therefore, to The proposal for new towns near the metropolitan fringe be the capacity for Dandenong to grow without reducing has many attractive features. A well-planned, integrated the prosperity of the central city. development could achieve, with time, infrastructure economies of scale. Greenfield sites offer the chance of · However, the development of Dandenong as an creative urban development with a housing mix in line alternative major metropolitan centre to Melbourne's . with the diversified needs of the population. Canberra central city has some disadvantages. Its accessibility to provides some excellent examples of how traffic and much of Melbourne is hampered by its poorer access i:o . pedestrian movement can be segregated, how other states and international transport links. community facilities and shopping may be planned to · Dandenong's growth would create greater pressure for serve different sized catchments but still complement new links across the metropolis, through expensive and each other. environmentally sensitive areas. While a major new airport in the south-east would serve Dandenong, such a Infrastructure economies, however, may take· time to be proposal might be difficult to justify given Tullamarine's realised. Initial outgoings would be high and would current capacity and plans for its expansion, and the exceed income by considerable margins. Unlike new comparatively e3$y option of development at Avalon. fringe suburbs, new towns could not feed off established physical and social infrastructure in nearby suburbs until But the real attraction - which might outweigh all the they reached levels where their own services and disadvantages - is to bring many of the benefits of inner facilities would be justified. city living to the outer suburbs. The dwelling price disparity between inner and outer suburbs has increased New towns inevitably face an identity crisis in their early over the last ten years from 1.1:1 to 2:1. Lower income years - sometimes called 'new town blues'. New towns households are now unable to afford most inner would have to prove attractive for a range of income suburban housing and are more or less forced to live groups; the development of new towns as a low income well away. from.all the attractions of the inner suburbs. alternative to suburbia would create more problems than they would solve. The professional desire for · At present Dandenong's situation is similar to that of any comprehensive planning would need to be tempered by of the other 16 metropolitan district centres. Its unique the contrary need for variety and choice that comes from development potential is not recognised by any enhanced disparate sources of development powers. status. A first step in realising this option would be the There are many models of new town development in designation of Dandenong as a second metropolitan Australia and overseas. The experiences of the South centre with greater incentives than those already offered Australian Housing Trust in the development of in district centres. Public sectOr employment relocation Elizabeth, of the National Capital Development could be a powerful incentive to private investment. Commission in Canberra and even of the Albury The second step would be the preparation of a Wodonga Development Corporation provide lessons for develop~ent plan for the .centre and environs through a the whole range of planning and management issues. partnership of state and local government and business The best examples from overseas are from the British and residents' interest groups. Important lessons are to new towns, and the 'metropolises of equilibrium' in be learned in this regard from the experience of France (lie-de-France, Paris). Canberra, Parramatta, and similar centres overseas. An The development corporations are usually given a range integrally planned centre would create opportunities for of powers - from land purchase and assembly to public transport improvements, the provision of efficient financial incentives for firms and migrants - to infrastructure, public housing, and an enhanced tax and encourage the development of the town. In particular, rate base. The range of commercial and cultural the linking of employment in local fmns with access to facilities that could be attracted to such a centre would subsidised housing (either through low-interest benefit those metropolitan residents who are most distant mortgages or money grants) has been useful in securing from the facilities and services available in central high levels of self-containment of the new towns. Melbourne.
42 Regional centres In terms of service sector employment, the current surplus of office floorspace in Melbourne's central city The crucial factors in the development of the Victorian may temporarily forestall the level of decentralisation regional centres are ~eir ability to attract new activities that has occurred in other countries. In the meantime and to capitalise on available infrastructure capacities. there are many ways through which the regional centres There are two strategic opportunities and one existing could market their long-term assets. program that can provide the basis for their Conventional planning practices overseas have shown development The opportunities are broadly related to that regional growth can be achieved by providing better the production and consumption roles of the centres. support for firms already established in regional centres, attracting footloose industries from other areas using a · range of economic incentives, creating favourable ·Opportunities for growth of pro~uction conditions for new investment and decentralising public Many organisations throughout the world are exploiting sector jobs from the metropolis. improvements in telecommunications to separate vertically different functions and decentralise routine activities to lower cost locations. The location of the Opportunities for the growth of Australian Securities Office in Traralgon is probably the consumption · first example of this trend in Victoria, to be followed by the move of the head office of the Department of · A less conventional planning approach is to consider the · Agriculture and Rural Affairs. future of regional centres as 'nodes of consumption', complementing regional production. This approach As for manufacturing, the opportunities for employment recognises that Melbourne will remain the centre for growth in the regional centres vary from industry to most high order production and service functions in industry. There is potential for development in the Victoria, and that the dominance of the metropolitan following industries. market will continue. If the consumption of goods and • In the aluminium industry, there is scope for the services in regional centres is however enhanced, it expansion of existing smelters at Geelong and for the would have multiplier effects on regional income and establishment of downstream activities such as employment. casting houses. .· The· approach relies on regional centres and their • In the mining industry, transport costs are high value surrounds proving an attractive and realistic alternative added; activity is hence best located close to the to metropolitan living. The contrast between Melbourne mineral resources. Some regional centres, and country Victoria is in some respects narrowing. The· particularly Ballarat with its School of Mines, have an isolation of country living is being broken down by excellent skills base. better transport links and improved media services. The • In the telecommunications industry, regional centres technology now exists to change significantly the could prove an attractive location for production. The relationship between the metropolis and the regional success of IBM at Wangaratta proves that regional centres. centres have two important assets: greenfield sites and Many people have already made the move out of a stable and reliable workforce. On the software side Melbourne, usually for lifestyle reasons. This is of the computer industry, there are opportunities for reflected in the high rates of growth in regional centres, companies dealing with rural industries. small towns and rural areas within 150km of Melbourne. • In the car industry, regional centres are well placed to What is now needed is to combine health with wealth. exploit advantages and develop the manufacture of Subject to environmental limits, policies that further some components. The car industry is currently well narrow the gap of service delivery between city and bush represented in Geelong. and improved transport and communication links • The processing of wool and hide components is often between regional centres and Melbourne would benefit best located in regional centres, building on the the economy of the regional centres. traditional bases of the clothing and footwear This approach does not seek to see regional centres in~ustries, particularly in Ballarat and Bendigo. develop as totally separate, self-contained economies. • Although seasonal labour requirements and a greater Rather it would maximise linkages with Melbourne and, reliance on technology favour Melbourne, there are in essence, expand the metropolitan market to a much some parts of the food processing industry thilt are wider area: Commuting to Melbourne would not matter advantaged by non-metropolitan production. The best as long as a substantial proportion of the local income examples are firms that process one product grown in was spent in the region, generated further employment · a particular region or firms dealing with inputs that and enhanced regional services. are highly perishable. The policies to boost regional centres as nodes of There are strong reasons why many firms would consumption would be based on building on continue to favour a metropolitan location. But the opportunities for high quality Jiving. These might increasing size and congestion of Melbourne allied with include: further moves towards just-in-time manufacturing • · upgrading of railways and roads, to encourage long processes could, in the future, favour the less congested distance but fast commuting into Melbourne. This regional centres.
43 ~------
would include upgrading of tracks and the · introduction of 'sprinter' trains capable of using the [lsTSJ Which option? central city's underground loop. The implications of The four options above are not exclusive: many other the proposed VFf will remain unknown pending options are possible, as are combinations ofthe four decisions on rou~ and stopping points. options. Further options could be a more stringent • developing planning policies to encourage expansion 'greenprint' for ecologically sustainable urban of towns along rail links between Melbourne and development, a 'free market' alternative in which urban regional centres, subject to infrastructure and development is very substantially deregulated, and an environmental limits. option that seeks to promote as much growth as possible • broadening education opportunities in regional in Melbourne, compact or not. centres by directing funding of growth in full-time The public is invited to comment on the trends projected, tertiary education. .. the issues discussed and the options described. Other • preferentially treating regional centres with Arts options will undoubtedly emerge in the discussion, Council funding. possibilities that are interestiilg and relevant to Victoria's urban future. These, too, must be fully considered before any preferred strategy can be developed. The Regional Centres Program The Government's $40 million Regional Centres Prograin, announced in October 1990, is oriented to achieve many of the objectives above. In particular, it: • demonstrates that regional centres offer economic advantages, particularly opportunities for expansion. (a successful example of this approach has been the relocation of Eureka Tiles from Sydney to Ballarat); • has produced regional investment profiles for . distribution interstate and overseas; • has extended the funding for strategically important regional fmns tO the tourist industry in recognition of that sector's increasing strength; • has further extended assistance for the development of regional infrastructure; ·• has improved the flow of information by extending VIS TEL's operations to Country Victoria (a pilot scheme will be established at Ballarat to ascertain the level of assistance to ftrms in the re·gion); • is examining the feasibility of relocating some public sector jobs from metropolitan Melbourne. In particular, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is currently looking at the option of moving to a regional centre. The governinent will monitor the degree of success of this and other moves that have already occurred, such as the Australian Securities data processing facility in the Latrobe Valley, and the. Taxation Office in Geelong. · An expansion of this program, along some of the lines mentioned above, will strengthen the development prospects of the regional centres. It would also be important to ensure that the regional boards or committees in Ballarat, Bendigo and Shepparton are given enhanced status similar to the Geelong and the Latrobe Valley Commissions.
44 Appendix 1: Development opportunities in regional centres
This brief profile of the main development opportunities The commentary has been arranged as a profile on each in the six regional centres has largely been prepared by of the regional centres. The profile describes:. each of the regional authorities responsible for planning_ (i) locational attributes, and development The Department of Planning and Urban Growth has ·had an advisory and editorial role, (ii) recent population growth trends, mainly to ensure consistency. The regional authorities (iii) transport and communication linkages, are: (iv) the present structure of the regional economy, • The Geelong Regional Commission, (v) regional economic growth prospects and potential • The Ballarat Regional Board, and, • The Loddon-Campaspe Regional Planning Authority, (vi) future urban development plans. • The Greater Shepparton Planning Advisory Each of the regional centres has a unique set of features Committee, and prospects. Common to all, however, are lifestyle • The Albury-Wodonga Development Corporation, and attributes and a great potential to positively contribute • The Latrobe Regional Commission. both to Victoria's long-term urban development, and to the economic prosperity of the state and its inhabitants. The participation and support of these organisations is gratefully acknowledged.
•,
45 Geeto·ng Location Geelong is 75km south-west of Melbourne; it is the second largest city in Victoria and the eleventh largest in Australia.· The Geelong Region comprises nine · municipalities: the Cities of Geelong, Geelong West, Newtown and South Barwon, the Rurill City of Bellarine, the Borough of Queenscliffe and the Shires of Corio, Barrabool and Bannockburn. The region has an area of 2,482 sq.km and includes Port Phillip Bay and Bass Strait coastlines, the whole of the Bellarine Peninsula and park areas of the Otways, You Yangs and Brisbane Ranges.
BY·PASS ROAD
INLET
46
------· ---- Facts about Geelong Economy Municipalities In Region: Geelong is closely linked socially and economically to Cities of Geelong, Geelong West, Newtown & South Melbourne. Over one third of migrants to the Geelong Barwon, Rural City of Bellarine, Borough of Queenscliffe, region are from metropolitan Melbourne. The short Shires of Corio, Barrabool & Bannockburn distance to Melbourne means that social and family. Population of region (1989): 193,420 networks can be more easily maintained, thus making Average annual population growth rate relocation easier. About 8.4 per cent of Geelong's of region (1986-1989): 1.36% resident workforce commutes daily to Melbourne. Median dwelling price (1989): $95,400 Twenty five trains a day travel to Melbourne, more than Labour Force of region (1986): 75,952 twice the number of any other regional centre. o/o Manufacturing (1986): 25.0% Geelong has a strong manufacturing base with o/o Unemployment (1986): 8.3% approximately 25 per cent of the total workforce · Main Industries: employed in industry. The main industries are oil Textiles, carpets & clothing, oil refining, cars, cement, refming, the car industry, aerospace, textiles, aluminium aluminium smelting, aerospace smelting, carpets and clothing. Major local employers Main Employers: include Ford, Shell, Alcoa, Godfrey Hirst, B.H.P., Ford, Shell, B.H.P., Godfrey Hirst, Alcoa, Australia Pilkington and Australia Cement. Cement in the last decade the economy of the Geelong region Distance to Melbourne: 75kms has experienced considerable changes. They include Distance to other regional centres: (Ballarat) 86kms growth in the tertiary sector, and restructuring and Trains per day to Melbourne: 25 productivity growth in the manufacturing sector. Tertiary education Institutions: Key competitive strengths of the Geelong regional Deakin University, Gordon Technical College, economy have been identified as follows. Regional organisations: Geelong Regional Commission 1. The availability of specialised agriculture, mineral and marine resources which are linked to the industrial base and to other regional strengths. Wool, Population grains and potatoes are the main rural products. Substantial downstream processing of wool products In 1989 the population of the region was 193,420. This as well as research and training programs are carried has been growing since 1986 at an average annual rate of out locally. The main grain varieties produced in 1.36 per cent. The urban area of Geelong has a Western Victoria can be stored and distributed by the population of more than 125,000. During the 1981-86 Grain Elevators Board at their North Geelong intercensal period, Geelong's growth has mainly been in tenninal and wharf. Aquaculture is a growing the southern suburbs; Otherwise half ofthe region's industry with mussel farms establishing around growth is occurring in coastal townships. The Portarlington. population of the Geelong Region is projected to rise to 226,000 by 2001. Towns along the Bass Strait coastline 2. The availability of a sheltered port, with specialised are becoming increasingly popular for retirement These bulk handling facilities and supportive infrastructure, towns are in one of the few areas in Victoria that have is an important asset of the region. The Port of both an attractive coastline and proximity to the services Geelong Authority operates general cargo handling of a major urban centre. The long-tenn ageing of the facilities as well as providing specialist piers for state's population should significantly contribute to the grain, petroleum products, explosives and aluminium. continuing growth of these towns. 3. The existence of a well-linked industrial base. The ten leading manufacturing establishments employ about 10,500 people which represents over half of the Transport and communications · total manufacturing workforce of the region. Geelong is linked to Melbourne by a dual track railway 4. Geelong's proximity to the major commercial centres and by the dual carnage Princes Highway. Upgrading of and markets of Victoria and the substantial the Princes Highway to a six lane divided highway ha5 transportation infrastructure available gives it a major been recommended in the VicRoads 2000 Study. advantage over more distant regional centres. Geelong's port, comprehensive retail and service activities and a significant manufacturing base make it 5. The Geelong Region has many attractive tourist and the focus for much of the state's Western District recreation features, particularly the surf beaches of Geelong is also linked to Ballarat and Warrnambool by Bass Strait, the Otways, You Yangs and Brisbane single track railway line. Considerable rail freight Ranges. Torquay, Anglesea, Ocean Grove, movements occur into and out of Geelong to the west Queenscliff and Bellarine Peninsula towns on Port and to Adelaide. A regional airport with business jet Phillip Bay are very popular destinations for services to Sydney and other regional centres is planned. Melbourne day trippers as well as venues for annual Geelong's proximity to the Avalon Airfield could holidays. A spin-off of one of the region's tourist become. a major asset should Avalon develop as a major assets has been the development of Torquay as a focal airport . point for surf-goods manufacturers with world renowned names such as Rip Curl, Quick Silver and
47 Piping Hot But generally the region's tourist development has been undercapitalised. Its further development carries real potential for economic growth. 6. Research and development activities are strong in the . Geelong Region. C.S.I.R.O's. textile research facility and the Australian Animal Health Laboratories, both institutions of national significance. constitute the catalyst core. The Geelong Technology Centre Inc. provides a register of R & D capabilities in the region. The region is also well served by Deakin University ---·· and the Gordon Technical College. -----
Future land development The Geelong Regional Development Strategy. published by the Geelong Regional Commission in 1988. identifies several areas to accommodate short- and long-term future urban growth. The major growth area is to the south of the Geelong urban area. around Grovedale and Mount Duneed. where 1800 hectares are being reserved for future urban uses. This area could be extended should growth require additional lands. Other smaller growth areas are adjacent to three designated coastal towns: west of Torquay. north of Ocean Grove and west of Drysdale.
48 Ballarat ... "''""''"on Ballarat is llOkm to the west of Melbourne and 86km north-west of Geelong. The historic gold mining centre and surrounding region encompasses seven municipalities: the City of Ballaarat, the Borough of Sebastapol and the Shires .of Ballarat, Bungaree.• Buninyong, Grenville and Creswick. Ballarat is the regional centre of the Central Highlands Region and its regional influence spreads west to include the Wimmera and parts of the South-western Region of Victoria
~To MELBOURNE ) 111 km To GEE LONG
LEGEND
£:z::l EXISTING URBAN AREAS IZZZl URBAN EXPANSION AREAS/OPTIONS
49
------~------~------~---- Facts about Ballarat Economy Municipalities In region: In 1986 the domiflant industries in the Ballarat Region City of Ballaarat, Borough of Sebastapol, Shires of were community services (24 per cent), wholesale and Ballarat, Buninyong, Bungaree, Creswick & Grenville retail trade (19 per cent) and manufacturing {17 per Population of region: 91,940 cent). As technology has improved, the proportion of Average annual population growth rate the workforce engaged in manufacturing has decreased of region (1986-1989): 0.95% while there has been a rise in service sector employment Median dweUing price (1989): $76,f.300 The strongest annual growth rates between 1976 and Labour force of region (1986): 35,544 1986 were recorded in public administration, fmance % Manufacturing (1986): 17.3% property and business services, communications and community services (in that order). % Unemployment: (1986): 9.2% Main Industries: Agriculture remains the main source of regional income, Food processing, textiles and shoes, tourism generating nearly $82.5 million in 1988-89. Wool, Main employers: prime lamb, beef cattle and dairy caule are the mainstays McCain Australia, Paddle Shoes, Mars Confectionery of of the region's traditional broadacre agriculture. Cereals, Australia, Ballarat Base Hospital, Ballarat University especially oats and barley, are also important The major College food processing activity that occurs in the region is Distance to Melbourne: 111kms potato processing. Distance to other regional centres: (Geelong) 86kms The decline in manufacturing activity since the mid Trains per day to Me.lbourne: 11 · 1970s has been a statewide phenomenon, but Ballarat's Tertiary education Institutions: industrial decline has been at a slower rate. A Ballarat School of Mines and Industry, Ballarat turnaround occurred between 1984-85 and 1987-88 University College, Aquinas College when 813 manufacturing jobs, or 26.6 per cent, were Regional organisations: added. Within the manufacturing sector the two Ballarat Regional Board for Planning and industries of 'Food Beverages and Tobacco' and Development_ Inc. Transport Equipment' are dominant with 24 per cent and 20 per cent respectively of total regional employment. Main employers include McCain Australia and Mars Population ConfeCtionery. Although one of the region's smaller industries, 'Transport and Storage' is of strategic The population of the region in 1989 has been estimated importance and grew at three times the state average as 91,940, making Ballarat the third largest centre in between 1981 and 1986. Victoria after Melbourne and Geelong. Since 1986 the population has grown by more than 2,500, at an average In the last twenty years the major growth industry in increase of 0.96 per cent per year. The region's Ballarat has been tourism. It is estimated to inject more population is projected to grow to more than 111,000 by than $100 million annually into the regional economy. 2001. One of the principal attractions is the Botanical Gardens which attract more than one and a half million visitors A further 55,000 people live in the remainder of the each year. The Begonia Festival has 150,000 annual Central Highlands, outside the Ballarat Region. During visitors. Sovereign Hill attracted 485,000 paying the 1980s this population has been increasing at the rate customers in the last financial year. Hotels, motels and of 2.4 per cent per year. Much of this growth has been caravan parks all have high occupancy rates. occurring in smaller townships such as Bacchus Marsh, Balian and Daylesford, all within commuting distance of The Ballarat Region is currently experiencing high Melbourne. levels of unemployment - about four times the levels of metropolitan Melbourne. ConsultantS' reports prepared for the Ballarat Regional Board advise of the need to expand and diversify the economy, not only to address Transport and communications unemployment problems but. to meet the employment needs of the region's growing population. Ballarat is on the Western Highway, the main road link between Melbourne and Adelaide. Apart from Geelong, Ballarat is well endowed with tertiary education Ballarat has better road links to Melbourne than the other opportunities. Tertiary education institutions. are the regional centres. Its proximity to. Melbourne is aided. by Ballarat University College, Ballarat campus of the the freeway standard road, over half the way to Institute of Catholic Education, the Ballarat School of Melbourne, and a divided four lane highway, for the Mines and Industries and a field station for Melbourne remainder of the journey. The rail link to Melbourne, University's Forestry Department. Collectively, these however, is not so good; it is mostly a single track with institutions constitute a significant component of little spare capacity and restrictive gradients. The line to Ballarat's social infrastructure, traditionally catering for Geelong is single track and carries considerable freight the education and training needs of the Ballarat Region traffic heading to the port. and the wider areas of rural western Victoria. Funds are
50 attracted in the form of residential and liVing allowances for students. This education network has potential as a resource for R & D activities.
Future land development The preferred residential development alternative of the Ballarat Regional Strategy proposes that, over the next twenty years, population growth would occu,r as follows: • 26,000 through extensions to the Ballarat urban area and. 2,000 to Creswick; • 2,600-3,900 in rural residential allotments; •. 1,300 in periphei'al iownships and extensions. The Strategy also contains three options for urban growth beyond the twenty years. These options are at Delacombe, south-west of Sebastapol and in the Miner's Rest area These allow for further growth of 17,000- 22,000 people. The two extremes to the Ballarat urban area will be Miner's Rest to the north and Buninyong to the south, with contiguous urban development promoted wherever possible.
51 . ~Bendigo· Location Bendigo is situated 150km north-west of Melbourne. The Bendigo Region includes the municipalities of Bendigo, Eaglehawk, Huntly, Marong and Strathfieldsaye. It is centrally located in Victoria, roughly 120km from both Shepparton and Ballarat.
MELBOURNE VIA NORTHERN HWY 160 km
LEGEND : ::::: EXISTING URBAN ......
URBAN EXPANSION AREAS ( recommended by Bendigo 2020 consultcnts ) NEW URBAN AR'EAS ( r•commtnded by MELBOURNE 1SO B1ndlgo 2020 consultants) · N.B. PLAN DOES NOT SHOW _PROPOSEO RURAL RESIDENTIAL AREAS
52 Facts about Bendigo Economy·
Municipalities In region: Bendigo has a diverse economy and a long-established City of Bendigo, Rural City of Marong, Borough of Eaglehawk, Shires of Huntly, Strathfieldsaye manufacturing base. The government ordnance factory is one of the main employers and with some contracts · Population of region (1989): 76,020 continuing into the next century, some stability will be Average annual population growth provided to cushion the city from short-term economic rate of region (1986-1989): 1.66% shocks. A boost to entrepreneurial activity, sales and Median dwelling price (1989): $84,400 development work is expected to occur associated with Labour force of region (1986): 29,530 the AMECON's frigates construction. o/o Manufacturing (1986): 15.1% o/o Unemployment (1986): 9.1 o/o Bendigo is particularly associated with the textile, Main Industries: clothing and footwear industries with firms like Footwear, clothing & textiles, defence & weapons, Sportscraft and Stafford Ellinson well established. New agricultural Ssrvices & tourism · technology has reduced labour intensity but there is Main employers: scope for expansion, especially in leather and sheepskin Australian Defence Industries, BTR Nylex, V Line, products. Of the sixty five million sheepskins that leave Stafford Ellinson, Sportscraft, Australian Consolidated the city only two million have any value added to them. Hosiery Distance to Melbourne: 150kms The rich agricultural base of the Loddon-Campaspe Distance to other reglona·l centres: (Ballarat) 120kms Region accounts for about two-thirds of total Trains per day to Melbourne: 6 employment in Bendigo after· allowing for inter-industry Tertiary education Institutions: linkage and consumption effects. Bendigo's weekly live Latrobe University College of Northern Victoria sheep sales are the biggest in Australia. The downturn in Regional organisations: the rural sector- particularly banned wheat exports to · Loddon-Campaspe Regional Planning Authority, Bendigo Iraq and low wool prices - could therefore impact badly Regional Development Board on the <;ity. But by international standards.the region's agricultural base is already technologically advanced and competitive. This has stemmed from both a well Population developed industry extension service and public sector technology transfer. Nevertheless there remains scope to Bendigo is the second fastest growing regional ~entre in expand local dry land salinity and animal husbandry . Victoria. The 1989 population of the region was 70,920. .research programs. In the food industry there is scope In the last three years its population grew by an average of 1.6 per cent. The population has grown by 11,000 for adding value both through new product development since 1981. This growth rate is expected to continue with and productivity improvements. the population projected to increase by a further 14,000 people by 2001. Bendigo's economic diversity is also derived from its role as a regional service and major tourist centre. The Population growth has been fuelled by migration from servicing role of Bendigo in the region is clearly surrounding country areas both within the Loddon demonstrated by the 82 per cent of all employment Campaspe Region and beyond. Regionalisation within attributable to the tertiary or service sector, whereas the the public and private sectors has increased - and seems ·statewide figure is 76 per cent. These activities include likely to continue to increase - employment community services (24 per cent of Bendigo's employed opportunities. As with other regional centres Bendigo residents), retailing and wholesaling (20 per cent) and . offers considerably lower house prices than metropolitan public administration (7 per cent). Melbourne. In 1989 the median dwelling price of houses in the Bendigo Region was $84,400 compared The Bendigo College of Advanced Education has now with a metropolitan median of $132,500. become the Bendigo campus of the Latrobe University College of Northern Victoria. It is the major provider in Transport and communications Country Victoria of higher education, delivered through an extended campus operation. Courses are available A dual track railway links with Melbourne in just over through regional TAFE colleges in Wangaratta, · two hours travel time. The Calder Highway is the main Shepparton and Mildura. The number of overseas road link although an alternative route using the Mcivor students studying at Bendigo is projected to increase to and Hume Highways via Kilmore is only slightly longer. two hundred within three years and this is considered to Further duplication of sections of the Calder Highway is be an important 'export activity' for Bendigo. in progress and planned. Bendigo is the major regional centre for the Loddon-Campaspe Region which extends Bendigo has the only state Government designated High to the Murray Valley in the north and to the Divide to Technology Precinctin country Victoria, the five others · the south and which has a population of about 175,000. all being in metropolitan Melbourne. The precinct is For instance, people shopping in Bendigo come from as adjacent to the campus of the Latrobe University College far afield as Swan Hill, Echuca, Castlemaine and of Northern Victoria. Kyneton.
53 Future land development The Bendigo 2020 Study is currently under preparation for the Bendigo Region, comprising the five municipalities. Broad goais for economic and community development have been set. A land use strategy for a population of 130,000 in the year 2020 is being finalised. This land-use strategy has six main components: (1) ongoing urban consolidation in the existing Bendigo and Eaglehawk urban areas for an additional 20,000 people, (2) development of Marong to provide for about 8,500 people, (3) development of Strathfieldsaye for an additional 8,500 people, · (4) expansion of the Epsom township to accommodate 5,000 people, (5) expansion of the Huntly township by 5,000 additio~ people, (6) controlled urban development in some smaller · settlements for a total additional population of about 6,000 people.
54 Shepparton Location Shepparton is centrally located in the Goulburn Region, 180km north of Melbourne, 120km from Bendigo and 170km from Albury-Wodonga. The Shepparton Region .referred to in ·this report consists of the City of Shepparton and the Shires of Rodney and Shepparton . . The region is bisected by the Goulburn River.
l '.• F . ~~.-. ' ....-_,\\' . ~·:
MOOROOPNA
LEGEND .W$dl FUTURE RESIDENTIAL AREAS J:::;:;:}::;:q EXISTING URBAN AREAS
jjjjjjjjjjjjjl.FUTURE INDUSTRIAL AREAS ·
55 Facts about Shepparton In April, 1986 Shepparton coined the catch phrase 'Solar · Municipalities In region: City', acknowledging the fact that it enjoys the highest City of Shepparton, Shires of Rodney & Shepparton levels of sunlight in Victoria. Population of region: 50,880 Shepparton City Council is developing an industry Average annual population growth assistance scheme to attract more industry to the area, rate of region (1986-1989): 1.02% reflecting the perceived competitive advantages of the Median dwelling price (1989): $89,700 region. Specific target industries are solar industries, Labour force of region {1986): 21,573 including product manufacturers and solar research bodies, food processing manufacturers and food o/o Manufacturing (1986): 13.4% technology research institutions. o/o Unemployment (1986): · 11.2% Main Industries: The Shepparton Region provides a variety of industrial Fruit & vegetable processing, dairying, fruit growing, land to suit small, medium or large industry. Local livestock & cereal production developers are prepared to assemble land and building Main employers: packages to suit individual needs, either lease or Campbell's Soups, S.P.C., Ardmona, Bonlac, Rosella purchase. Land values are about 30-40 per cent lower Lipton, Tatura Milk . than in Melbourne's industrial areas. Distance to Melbourne: 181kms The Goulburn Irrigation System provides the backbone Distance to other regional centres: (Bendigo) 122kms "for intensive agriculture in Northern Victoria, dominated Trains per day to Melbourne: 2 by dairy, livestock and fruit production. These Tertiary education institutions: important rural industries give Shepparton a strong Goulburn Valley Community College (TAFE) agricultural focus, reflected by the wide range of rural service industries located in the Shepparton Region. Regional organisations: Greater Shepparton Planning Advisory Committee, Fifty per cent of the region's employment is in the Shepparton-Kyabram-Rodney Development Corp. Inc. wholesale and retail trade, community services and · finance, property and business services. The region has Population a wide range of health, recreation, education and other facilities. The Shepparton shopping centre, with more The population of the Shepparton Region in 1989 was than 400 retail outlets, is a truly regional centre drawing 50,900. The average annual growth rate since 1986 has trade from throughout the Goulburn Region, an been 1.02 per cent. This steady growth is projected to estimated catchment of over 100,000 people. The continue so that the population would rise to 62,200 in annual retail turnover is in excess of $300 million. 2001 and 68,500 in 2011, increases of 11,400 and 17,600 respectively. Although the Goulburn Region is not one of Victoria's most popular tourist areas, there is scope for its Median house prices in the Shepparton Region in 1989 development. There are twenty four motels in were $89,700 or about 35 per cent below the Shepparton and Mooroopna, catering for business and metropolitan average. tourist demand. Shepparton's central location within northern, Victoria attracts considerable business and Transport and communications conference trade, and for similar reasons, tourists are increasingly using Shepparton as a convenient base from Shepparton is located at the crossroads of the Goulburn which to explore the district. The motels also benefit Valley and Midland Highways; it is one of the focal from interstate traffic including snow traffic travelling points of trucking in Australia. The Midland Highway is from South Australia to the Victorian Alps. The region's used as one of the main trucking routes between Sydney share of the tourism is increasing faster than the state and Adelaide, and the Goulburn Valley Highway as one average. of the main routes between Melbourne and Brisbane. Shepparton is connected to Melbourne by a single track Future land development · railway to Mangalore and thence to Melbourne on the main Sydney to Melbourne line. Two trains per day The Greater Shepparton Area Strategy Plan was make the return trip to Melbourne. published in July 1990. It identifies areas suitable for urban growth over the next fifteen years, with a capacity for an additional 17,000 people or about 6,000 - 7,000 Economy dwellings. The capacity of the urban services infrastructure means that there is little constraint on the Of the workforce of approximately 22,000 people, 14.2 development of these areas. per cent are employed in the local manufacturing industries. There are 112 manufacturing establishments The strategy recommends development in four broad in the Shepparton and Mooroopna district employing corridors, including the western corridor comprising the 3,177 persons, earning $82.4 million in wages and adjacent township of Mooroopna. The proportional salaries. At the last census of manufacturing turnover distribution allocates 17 per cent to the north of was $557.8 million. Much of the manufacturing activity Shepparton, 40 per cent to the south-east, 18.6 per cent is associated with food processing. Major local south of the Broken River and 24.4 per cent to the west employers are Campbells Soups, SPC, Ardmona and at Mooroopna. All of these are contiguous with the Bonlac. existing Shepparton and Mooroopna communities.
56 .. -·-· ·-~------
• Albury-Wodonga
Location The Albury-W odonga region is akin to the statistical Albury-Wodonga is situated just over 300km north-~st district used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, of Melbourne and 170km from Shepparton, the nearest generally an area of 40km radius from the twin cities. regional centre in Victoria. The joint cities are the only This area covers the City of Albury and pprt of the Shire survivor of the growth centre program initiated by the of Hume in New South Wales, the Rural City of · Federal Government in 1973. The cities are located Wodonga, the Shires ofBeechworth and Chiltem and astride the Murray River and the Victoria-New South parts of the Shires of Yackandandah and Tallangatta in Wales state border. · Victoria.
To MELBOURNE 302 km
m EXISTING URBAN (~;{;:<,~:!FUTURE EXPANSION t ;jFLOODPLAIN /SLOPE CONSTRAINT
' 57 Facts about Albury-Wodonga Economy Municipalities In region: Albury-Wodonga's rapid population growth can largely City of Albury, Rural City of Wodonga, Shires of be attributed to its success in employment generation Beechworth & Chiltern and parts of the Shires of over the last twenty years. Since 1971, the size of the Yackandandah, Tallangatta and Hume urban workforce has risen from 14,750 to 34,500, less Population of region (total): 86,830 than 5,000 of which occurred in the public sector, the Average annual population growth balance of nearly 20,000 being in the private sector. rate of region (1986-89): 2.2% Since 1976, when the first of Albury-Wodonga's annual Median dwelling price (1989): $96,500 employment censuses began, the average annual increase has been 4.6 per cent compared with a national average Labour force of region (1989): 34,500 of 2.3 per cent Manufacturing has grown against the % Manufacturing (1986): 15.9% national trend- there has been an increase of 3.8 per cent %Unemployment (1986): 6.5% each year compared with a national decline of 0.7 per Main Industries: defence, retailing, food processing, cent. engineering, textiles, public administration In 1989, manufacturing accounted for 21.3 per cent of all Main employers: jobs, ahead of retailing (17 per cent) and community Australian Army, Coles-Myer Group, B.T.R. Engineering, services (15.9 per cent). About 40 per cent of Uncle Ben's of Australia, Macquarie Worsteds, Australian manufacturing is by overseas-owned firms. Albury Tax Office Wodonga is the focus of important rural activities with a Distance to Melbourne: 302kms wide range of agricultural, pastoral and timber Distance to other regional centres: industries. Food processing has become well established (Shepparton) 167kms (pet foods, abattoirs, breakfast cereals and grain millers). Trains per day to Melbourne: .5 Albury-Wodonga has become a significant tourist Tertiary education Institutions: destination. The number of visitors has increased by Albury College of TAFE, Wodonga College of TAFE, over 60 per cent in the last three years. Tourists account Wodonga campus of Latrobe University, the Murray for an estimated 20 per cent of all retail expenditure and campus of Charles Sturt University in doing so are responsible for the direct and indirect Regional organisations: employment of about 3,000 people. Albury-Wodonga Development Corporation Albury-Wodonga's labour force is forecast to grow to 46,000 in the next twenty years. The manufacturing Population sector is expected to maintain its share of employment. This can be attributed to the buoyancy of the region's In 1989 the population of the Albury-Wodonga Region main firms, which have demonstrated an ability to was 89,830, an increase of nearly 5,600 on the 1986 expand to meet local and overseas market demand. population. The population on the Victorian side o( the border rose from 36,370 in 1986 to 39,750 in 1989, an Community services, especially tertiary education, are average annual increase of 3.1 per cent; this is the fastest expected to inake a major contribution to regional rate of growth of any of the regional centres in Victoria. growth. Tourism is likely to grow at twice the anticipated rate for total employment As the region Albury-Wodonga is one of the largest inland centres in grows and its economy diversifies, demand for business Australia, only exceeded by Canberra, Toowoomba and services also seems likely to grow at a faster rate than · Ballarat It is the eighteenth largest city in Australia. average. The population of Albury-Wodonga is projected to By the end of the century, the Albury-Wodonga increase to 106,700 by 2001. Department of the Development Corporation predicts that the number of Treasury projections for the Victorian part of the region employed women would almost equal the number of show the population growing to 51,500 in 2001 and employed men resulting from women contributing 70 61,700 in 2011. . per cent of total job growth over the next ten years. In 1989, median dwelling prices on the Victorian side of the border were $96,500 - higher than any of the other Future urban development Victorian regional centres. House prices, however, are The urban areas of Albury and Wodonga are still an average 28 per cent lower than those in metropolitan Melbourne. · increasingly being built up within the constraints of ·topography and the Murray River flood plain and the large land holdings of the army in and around Wodonga. Transport and communications The major growth areas in the future will be at Albury-Wodonga is located on Australia's main transport Baranduda (south-east of Wodonga) and at Thurgoona · and communications corridor. It has excellent road, rail, (north-east of Albury), together with some substantial air and optic fibre links with Melbourne, Canberra and developments to the west and south of Wodonga, in west Sydney. Customs and quarantine, a container depot and Albury and along the western edge of Lavington. In export certification services assist in the import and addition, further expansion of the townships of export of goods and services. If the VFr is built, it Beech worth, Chiltern, Bamawartha, Tallangatta and would link the urban centre with Melbourne in less than Yackandandah can be expected as Albury-Wodonga 1.5 hours, and Sydney in about 2 hours. continues its steady growth.
58 The Latrobe Valley Transport and communications Location The Latrobe Valley has excellent links to Melbourne... The main road is the Princes Highway which is The Latrobe Valley is located 130-160km east of duplicated almost the entire length of the trip. Unlike Melbourne. The region considered for the purposes of other regional centres, the Latrobe Valley has good this study has four municipalities: the Cities of access to the prosperous south-eastern suburbs of Traralgon, Morwell and Moe and the Shire of Traralgon. Melbourne. The railway to Melbourne is double track These four municipalities form the 'heartland' of the and electrified, although electric trains only run out of wider Latrobe Region, comprising ten municipalities. Melbourne as far as Warragul. Regional economic, social, environmental and land-use planning functions of this wider area are administered by Sea Cat, Tasmania's new wave-piercing catamaran, the Latrobe Regional Commission. commenced operation in December, 1990. It will operate between Georgetown (Tasmania) and Port Welshpool which is only thirty minutes drive from the Facts about the Latrobe Valley Latrobe Valley. The vessel can carry 350 passengers Municipalities In region: and 84 cars and will cross Bass Strait in four and a half Cities of Moe, Morwall, and Traralgon and the Shira of hours. Traralgon Population of region: 71,020 · Average annual population growth Economy rate of region (1986-1989): 0.36% Median dwelling price (1989): $61,700 The Latrobe Valley is dominated by two principal Labour force of region .(1986): 30,768 employers: the State Electricity Commission of Victoria (SECV) and Australian Paper Manufacturers (APM). %Manufacturing (1986): 10.9% Other comparatively large employers are the Australian .. :~ %Unemployment (1986): •' 8.2% Securities Commission and Rocklea Spinning Mills. . .· Main industries: Twenty-five per cent of the resident workforce of over Paper manufacturing & electricity generation 30,000 are employed in the Electricity, Gas and Water Main employers: industries compared with only 2.2 per cent statewide. State Electricity Commission of Victoria, Australian Paper Others commute into the Latrobe Valley from Manufacturers, Australian Securities Commission, surrounding municipalities: In the wider Latrobe Region Rocklaa Spinning Mills (consisting of ten municipalities and a total resident .>.: Distance to Melbourne: 150kms workforce of47,500), the SECV employed more than Distance to other regional centres: -, 10,000 people in 1988 and indirectly supported more Trains per day to Melbourne: 7 than 8,000 other jobs. Tertiary education Institutions: Monash University College, Gippsland As the Latrobe Regional Commission's Strategy Plan, Regional organisations:. Steps Ahead has stated, the dominance of the principal Latrobe Regional Commission sectOr has produced a unique range of workforce and demographic characteristics: • a young male-dominated labour force with limited Population employment opportunities for females; The Latrobe Valley is different to the other regional . • a relatively high percentage of technical and trade centres insofar as the Valley is a network of towns rather skills; than a region with a single main urban centre: The • a corresponding under-representation of professional estimated resident population of this region was 71,020 and managerial positions; in 1989 and grew from 1986 at the slow rate of 0.36 per • a regular net inflow of single males and males with cent per year. This is a slower rate of growth than any of young families leading to a high proportion of the the other regional centres. The four main towns in the population in the 25-40 age group; and Latrobe Valley are Traralgon (1986 population 19,223), • net inflows of population in the 15-19 and 45 years Moe (1986 population 18,376), Morwell (1986. and over age groups. population 16,387) and Churchill (1986 population 5,526). On recent trends the population of this region is Historically, the Latrobe Valley's economic well-being projected to rise to just over 79,000 in 2001. Whether has been closely tied to fluctuations in the activity of its this actually happens depends on the state of the regional principal sector, the SECV exploitation of the brown and state economy. coal resources. Ten years ago expansion of the coal The Latrobe Valley has the lowest median dwelling exploitation led to a regional economic boom, prices for separate houses ($61,700 in 1989) than any of accompanied by local price inflation and some housing the regional centres, $15,000 lower than the next lowest shortages. The current economic downturn of the (Ballarat, $76,800) and less than half the metropolitan principal sector has dampened economic opportunities average ($132,500). · and growth throughout the Valley.
59 Economic prospects have been affected by three recent • The success of attracting the Australian Securities events. First the SECV has reduced its workforce by Commission with a workforce of 340 mainly involved about 2,000 jobs leaving a total of 8,500 jobs. A further _in data processing, shows thepotential for attracting 10 per cent workforce reduction is currently being the more routine operations out of the more expensive implemented. Secondly, APM have shed 20 per cent or offices in Melbourne and Sydney. 250 jobs. Thirdly, the state government released its • There are small but significant developments in Greenhouse Strategy which proposes energy horticulture~ tourism and specialist manufacturing conservation and a reduced rate of usage of brown coal industries. for electricity generation. While the effects of greenhouse policies will be medium to long-term for • The linking of Gippsland Institute of Education to Monash University may allow the Institute's . Victoria as a whole, their.impact in the Latrobe Valley will be immediate and dramatic. experience in distance education to be expanded. Creative planning and management will be necessary to avoid or minimise stresses. The well-being of the Future land development Latrobe Valley largely depends on the region's abilitY to develop new employment opportunities in non ·With low rates of economic, and consequently traditional areas. The region's assets provide several population growth forecast, the tike up of new · · opportunities. residential land is expected to be slow. Supplies of residential land around the four main Latrobe Valley· • The Coal Corporation of Victoria is hoping to attract a towns are considered to be adequate for up to twenty major coal liquefaction plant which, if built. could years at anticipated rates of growth. Speculation ·ameliorate the impact of job losses resulting from a regarding the development of the corridor between slowing down in coal-based electricity generation. Morwell and Traralgon resulted from expectations in the • The Latrobe Valley has a rising pool of skilled early 1980s of high regional growth. In view of the new unemployed. Furthermore the region has a history of economic outlook, the corridor will not be needed for low labour force turnovers. · urban use within the foreseeable future.
THE LATROBE VALLEY
~ MELBOURNE 130KM .LEGEND
EXISTINQ URBAN
URBAN EXPANSION AREAS/OPTIONS . Loy Yang Power Station
MAJOR INDUSTRIAL AREAS
· ._. Monuh Unlverllty College Qlppeland
I
60 Appendix 2: References
Australia. Indicative Planning Council for the Housing Victoria, Department of Planning and Urban Growth, Industry, 1990. Residential Land Report. AGPS, 1990A. The Urban Development Program for Canberra Metropolitan Melbourne 1990-1994. DPUG, Melbourne. Eccles, D., O'Connor, K., and Wilmoth, D., 1989. Melbourne's future growth: issues and concerns. Victoria, Department of Planning and Urban Growth, MAV, UDIA apd HIA, Melbourne. 1990B. A better place to live. Urban development options for Victoria. Manuscript, DPUG, Melbourne. Henshall Hansen and Associates, 1988. Study of Small Towns in Victoria, MPE and DARA, Melbourrie, Victoria, Department of Planning and Urban Growth, 1990C. Physical planning aspects of Victoria's future Maunsell and Partners et al, 1990. Relative urban development. Working Paper 7, Urban infrastructure costs of urban and provincial Centres: A Regional Development Program for development for Victoria's long-term growth. Victoria DPUG, Melbourne. Volume 1. Working Paper, Maunsell and Partners, Melbourne. Victoria, Department of the Treasury, 1990. Projection · of Dwelling Commencements, Households and O'Connor, K., Hawes, M., and Rapson, V., 1990. Population for Statistical Local Areas in Metropolitan Manufacturing and Melbourne's development 1975 to Melbourne. Treasury, Melbourne. . · 1987: a national and local perspective. Working Paper 30, Department of Geography and Victoria, Environment Protection Authority, 1990. Environmental Science,· Monash University. Annual Report19lj9-90, VGPO, Melbourne. Pappas, Carter, Evans and Koop, 1990A. The Global Victoria, Ministry for Planning and Environment, 1989. Challenge. Australian Manufacturing in the 1990s. The Greenhouse Challenge- The Victorian Australian Manufacturing Council, Melbourne. Government's Response. MPE, Melbourne. Pappas, Carter, Evans and Koop, 1990B. Priority Victoria, Ministry for Planning and Environment, 1989, Sectors for Economic Development in Victoria's Victorian Regional Development -A Recent Manufacturing IndUstry. Department of Industry, Perspective, Working Paper No.1, Urban Centres: A Melbourne. Regional Development Program for Victoria, MPE. Pittock, A.B., and Hennessy, K.J., 1989. Regional Victoria, Ministry for Planning and Environment, 1989, Impact of the Greenhouse Effect on Victoria. CSIRO, Regional Centres Study, Working Paper No. 2, Urban Melbourne. Centres: A Regional Dvelopment Program for Victoria, MPE. Sams, D., 1990. The future development of the Victorian urban system and the development of infrastructure Victoria, 1987. People and Opportunities- Victoria's 1988 to 2031. Paper presented to Metropolis '90, Social Justice Strategy. VGPO, Melbourne. Third World Congress of the World Association of the Major Metropolises, Melbourne, October. Victoria, 1987. Shaping Melbourne's Future. VGPO, Melbourne. South Australia. Planning Review, 1990. 2020 Vision. Issues for Adelaide, DEP, Adelaide Victoria, 1988. Victoria. Trading on Achievement. VGPO, Melbourne. . Victoria, 1990. Budget Strategy and Review 1990-91. Budget Paper No.2; VGPO, Melbourne. Wilmoth D, 1990, Urban Development Options for Victoria. Unpublished. DPUG, Melbourne Victoria, Commissioner for the Environment, 1988. State of the Environment Report -Inland Aquatic Z3rsky, L., 1990. Sustainable Development- Challenges Environment. VGPO, Melbourne. for Australia. Commission for the Future, Melbourne.
61 Appendix 3: Published working papers
1. Victorian Regional Development- A Recent ·Perspective, by Kevin O'Connor, September 1989. 2. Regional Centres Study, by Henshall Hansen Associates, September 1989. 3. The Irrunediate Future- towards the Year 2000, by the Strategy Planning Division, Ministry for Planning and .Environment, January 1990. 4. Housing Melburniansfor the Next Twenty Years: Problems, Prospects and Possibilities, by Terry Burke and David Hayward, June 1990. 5. (Forthcoming on population projections) 6. {Forthcoming on employment projections) 7. Physical Planning Aspects of Victoria's Future Urban Development, by Strategic Planning Division, Department of Planning and Urban Growth, November 1990. 8. Catchments of Provincial Centres in Victoria, by . Strategic Planning Division, Department of Planning and Urban Growth, November 1990. 9. (Forthcoming on water supply, sewerage and .drainage services) 10. (Forthcoming on Victoria's spatial economy) 11. (Forthcoming on transport), available upon request Other: Statistical Data and Analysi$. by the Ministry of Planning and Environment and the Department of Management and Budget, October 1989.
62 Appendix 4: Steering committee (as at September 1990)
• Ms Susan Allen • Dr Krystian Seibert Project Manager Manager Regional Policy Strategic Planning Branch Business Policy and Planning Division Department of Planning and Urban Growth Department of Industry and Economic Planning • Mr Russell Smith • Mr Geoff Browne Manager Project Director Development Co-ordination Branch Business Policy and Planning Division Systems Planning Division Department of Industry and Economic Planning Melbourne and Metropolitan Board of Works • Mr Murray Cullinan • Mr Victor Sposito, Chairman Director Director . Strategic Planning Division Strategic Planning Division Ministry of Transport Department of Planning and Urban Growth • Ms Beatrice Derody • Dr Paul Tai Senior Economist . Senior Engineer Labour Market Research and Policy Branch Department of Conservation and Environment Department of Labour • Dr Lynne Williams • MrTonyFry Manager Manager Labour Market Research and Policy Branch Strategic Transport Planning Department of Labour Vic Roads • Mr Malcolm Jack Deputy Manager Strategic Planning Branch Department of Planning and Urban Growth .. • Mr Paul Jerome Director Regional Planning Division Department of Planning and Urban Growth • Mr Glenn Maguire Acting Assistant Director - Industry Economic and Financial Evaluation Division · Department of the Premier and Cabinet • Dr Kevin O'Connor Senior Lecturer Department of Geography and Environmental Service Monash University • Mr Jeremy Reynolds Policy Analyst Strategic Planning Division Department of Planning and Urban Growth • Mr Bernie Ryner Policy Adviser Development Policy Department of the Premier and Cabinet • Dr Dennis Sams Acting Assistant Director-General Policy and Statistics Division Departm.ent of the Treasury
63