The New Ice Curtain: Russia's Strategic Reach to the Arctic
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AUGUST 2015 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Lanham, MD 20706 301- 459- 3366 | www.rowman.com The New Ice Curtain Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic A Report of the CSIS Europe Program ISBN 978-1-4422-5882-2 AUTHORS 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Heather A. Conley Washington,Ë|xHSLEOCy258822z DC 20036v*:+:!:+:! Caroline Rohloff 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org Cover photo: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Glacier_Cruise_East_Greenland_(5563144918).jpg Blank The New Ice Curtain Rus sia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic AUTHORS Heather A. Conley Caroline Rohloff A Report of the CSIS Eu rope Program August 2015 Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 594-62463_ch00_3P.indd 1 8/26/15 8:08 PM hn hk io il sy SY eh ek About CSIS hn hk io il sy SY eh ek For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked hn hk io il sy SY eh ek to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are hn hk io il sy SY eh ek providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart hn hk io il sy SY eh ek a course toward a better world. hn hk io il sy SY eh ek CSIS is a nonprofit or ga ni za tion headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and hn hk io il sy SY eh ek develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. hn hk io il sy SY eh ek Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn has chaired the CSIS Board of Trustees since 1999. Former deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre became the Center’s president and chief executive officer in 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2015 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-4422-5882-2 (pb); 978-1-4422-5883-9 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20 706 202-887-0200 | www . csis . org 301 - 459 - 3366 | www . rowman . com 594-62463_ch00_3P.indd 2 8/26/15 8:08 PM Contents Ac know ledg ments v Executive Summary vii 1. The Evolution of Rus sian Arctic Policy Since President Putin’s Return to the Kremlin 1 Economic Impact of Sanctions and Global Energy Prices 2 Recentralization of Rus sian Arctic Policy 7 Changes to Rus sia’s Security Posture in the Arctic 9 “Everyone Is Afraid of Our Vastness” 14 2. Rus sia’s Energy and Economic Future Points Northward 23 Rus sia’s Global Energy Strategy and Its Economic and Geopo liti cal Limits 23 Building the Rus sian Arctic on Thawing Ground 36 Rus sia’s Arctic Mineral Resources 53 Rus sia’s Fisheries: Eco nom ically Viable or a Depleted Resource? 59 Demographic Challenges of a Changing Society 64 3. Securing Rus sia’s Arctic Frontier 69 Protecting Rus sia’s Arctic Border 70 Modernizing the Northern Fleet and Rus sia’s Strategic Deterrence 75 Protecting the Northern Sea Route 83 Demonstrating Arctic Capabilities 87 4. The Effects of Climate Change and Environmental Concerns 89 Permafrost Thaw and Coastal Erosion 89 Ocean Acidification 93 Biodiversity Changes and Potential Loss 94 Rus sia’s Environmental Protection Strategies 100 Impact of Rus sia’s NGO Law 100 5. Shared Interests: U.S.- Russian Bilateral Arctic Cooperation 102 Areas of Cooperation: The Bilateral Presidential Commission 103 Regional Fisheries Organizations 105 | III 594-62463_ch00_3P.indd 3 8/26/15 8:08 PM hn hk io il sy SY eh ek Scientific and Environmental Cooperation 107 Maritime Safety and Stewardship Cooperation 109 hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek 6. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 112 hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek About the Authors 116 hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek iv | Heather A. Conley AND Caroline Rohloff 594-62463_ch00_3P.indd 4 8/26/15 8:08 PM Ac know ledg ments his research effort was designed to search for new ways to strengthen U.S.-Russian T bilateral cooperation in the Arctic during the U.S. chairmanship of the Arctic Council (2015–2017), as well as to explain to U.S. and international audiences why the Rus sian Arctic is so vital to Rus sia’s future. The early months of our research were very promising, beginning with a major Arctic conference in Moscow in December 2013 hosted by the Rus sian International Affairs Council, where se nior Rus sian and U.S. officials gave serious pre sen ta tions about enhancing Arctic engagement, and afterwards sat together and planned a promising cooperative roadmap. Events in Ukraine in February 2014 changed the geopo liti cal landscape. Our research project went from promoting new collaborative thinking to identifying ways to preserve and protect Arctic cooperation as EU and U.S. sanctions were imposed after Rus sia annexed Crimea in March 2014 and U.S.- Russia military relations suspended by the United States. Although already under way, significant changes to Rus sia’s Arctic policy occurred in 2014 and continue to this day, which necessitated our research to take yet another turn in order to understand the factors that contributed to the policy change that went from describing Rus sia’s Arctic as “a territory of dialogue” to “challenges and threats to our national secu- rity.” The report’s policy recommendations suggest ways to bring the Arctic back to a region that ensures transparency and begins to rebuild confidence between Arctic and non- Arctic states alike. Writing such a detailed report is an enormous undertaking and the product of literally hundreds of hours of research and writing. This herculean task would not have been possible without the tireless dedication and stalwart efforts of CSIS research associate Caroline Rohloff. Caroline worked closely with very talented CSIS research interns Anna Olevsky, Tomi Stahlberg, and Katrina Negrouk, as well as former CSIS research associate Terence Toland. It takes a village to produce such an extensive report and gratefully, the CSIS Eu rope Program has an extremely talented village. The authors wish to profusely thank George Washington University research professor Marlène Laruelle who served as a project con sul tant to this report. Marlène contributed numerous critical insights and provided detail and richness to our research from her visits to Norilsk, Murmansk, and other Rus sian Arctic cities during the research period. The authors would like to thank Dr. Andy Kuchins, director of the CSIS Rus sia and Eurasia Program, for his enthusiastic participation in this project and willingness to contribute his | V 594-62463_ch00_3P.indd 5 8/26/15 8:08 PM hn hk io il sy SY eh ek moderating skills throughout a series of discussions that supported our research. The CSIS hn hk io il sy SY eh ek Eu rope Program would also like to thank Pavel Baev of the Peace Research Institute Oslo hn hk io il sy SY eh ek for his ongoing Arctic research, participation in numerous CSIS Arctic conferences, and review of the report’s security chapter. And finally, the authors would like to thank the hn hk io il sy SY eh ek MacArthur Foundation and project manager Igor Zevelev for making this research and hn hk io il sy SY eh ek report possible. hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek The authors hope this report illuminates Rus sian policy toward the Arctic now and into hn hk io il sy SY eh ek the future. vi | Heather A. Conley AND Caroline Rohloff 594-62463_ch00_3P.indd 6 8/26/15 8:08 PM Executive Summary What Does the Future Hold for the Rus sian Arctic? This research effort was designed to better understand the growing economic, po liti cal, and security importance of the Arctic to the Rus sian Federation and its leadership, as well as to determine what the Rus sian Arctic would tell us about the future development of Rus sia itself. The Rus sian Arctic is a much understudied and underappreciated region that encompasses nearly the entire northern coast of Eurasia and 50 percent of the total Arctic coastline, includes Rus sia’s strategic nuclear fleet, and accounts for about 20 percent of Rus sia’s GDP and 22 percent of its exports.1 Rus sia is an Arctic superpower and it perceives its Arctic region, or Far North, as a key development driver of the country in the twenty- first century. Rus sia’s interests in the Arctic have been largely driven by the promise of lucrative hydrocarbon resources beneath the Arctic Ocean, a perception promoted by Rus sia’s state- owned energy giants, as well as by the development of a new Arctic shipping route.2 This report traces the evolution of Rus sian Arctic policy beginning from the 2007–2008 period to today and offers a detailed examination of critical aspects of Rus sia’s Arctic policies, particularly economic development and security issues, that animate the Kremlin.