MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook Prepared for 2018 Annual Convention
October 16, 2018
Presented by Mike Fratantoni Marina Walsh Mortgage Bankers Association Outline
• Macroeconomic Trends • Interest Rate Expectations and the Federal Reserve
• Demographic Trends • Housing and Affordability • Credit Availability
• Industry Benchmarking • Production o Peer Group Trends o The Independent Mortgage Banker • Servicing • Technology
• Scenarios
2 Single Family Origination Volume Through the Cycle
Mortgage Originations History and Forecast 4,000 3,812 Forecast 3,500
3,027 3,000 2,854 2,773 2,726
2,500 2,243 2,306 1,995 2,044 2,051 2,000 1,845 1,760 1,740 1,698 1,679 1,683 Billions 1,656 1,636 1,509 1,630 1,500 1,379 1,436 1,261 1,139 1,000
500
- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Refi Purchase
Source: MBA Forecast 3 Purchase Volume Rising: Seasonality Increasing in Importance
Purchase Mortgage Applications Index (by week of the year, NSA)
300
250
200
150
100 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 Week of the Year
2016 2017 2018
Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey 4 MBA Forecast: Strong Job Market, Rising Rates
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GDP Growth 2.5% 3.1% 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% Inflation 2.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% Unemployment 4.4% 3.9% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% Fed Funds 1.375% 2.375% 3.125% 3.125% 3.125% 10-year Treasury 2.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 30-year Mortgage 3.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% New home sales (000s) 616 641 664 682 699 Existing home sales (000s) 5,542 5,424 5,613 5,733 5,817 Purchase originations ($B) 1,143 1,185 1,235 1,273 1,308 Refi originations ($ B) 616 451 395 410 432 Total originations ($B) 1,760 1,636 1,630 1,683 1,740 Mortgage debt outstanding ($B) 10,010 10,392 10,792 11,172 11,521
Source: MBA Forecast 5 Global Growth Strong…But Likely to Slow
Source: International Monetary Fund for 2017, PIIE for 2018-19. Annual average over annual average growth rates. 6 Growing Budget Deficit from FY 2017 to FY 2018
Period to Period Change Percent Change $5,000 25.0% $4,110 $3,981 $4,000 19.7% $3,315 $3,328 20.0% 17.4% $3,000
15.0% $2,000
Billions $1,000 10.0% $310 $371 $- 5.0% -$666 -$782 3.2% $(1,000) 0.4% $(2,000) 0.0% Receipts Outlays Deficit Net Interest Receipts Outlays Deficit Net Interest Paid on Paid on Public Debt Public Debt Actual, FY 2017 Preliminary, FY 2018
Source: Congressional Budget Office 7 Job Growth Unexpectedly Strong
Monthly Payroll Growth 400 324 300 268 270 254 265 250 210 226 192 195 208 175 174 179 182 176 200 162 170 155 175 165 134 96 88 100
Jobs 10 - 2018 monthly average to date: 208,000 jobs (43) (100)
(144)
Thousands of Thousands (200)
(300) (297)
(400) (422) (500)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 Unemployment Rate at 50 Year Low
US Unemployment Rate 12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0 Percent
4.0
2.0
0.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 Wage Growth Trending Higher
Wage Growth Year over year percent change 6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0 Percent
2.0
1.0
- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Workers Prime Age Private Industry Avg Hourly
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Bureau of Labor Statistics 10 Household Income Growing Gradually
Real Median Household Income $62,000 $61,372
$60,000
$58,000
$56,000 $54,569 $54,000
$52,000
$50,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Census Bureau 11 Inflation at Fed’s Target
Consumer Price Index Year over year percent change 6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0 Percent
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Core Headline
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 12 Monetary Policy is Still Stimulative Inflation Adjusted Fed Funds Rate 5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
- Percent (1.0)
(2.0)
(3.0)
(4.0)
(5.0)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board 13 Rates Expected to Increase
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Freddie Mac, MBA Forecast 14 Yield Curve Flattening Treasury Yield Spreads 3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00 Percent 0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10 Yr - 2 Yr spread 2 Yr - 3M spread
Source: Federal Reserve Board 15 Credit Spreads Tightening
BBB Corporate Bond - 10 Yr Treasury Spread 8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00 Percent 3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: ICE BofA ML, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis 16 Millennials Hitting Peak Housing Demand Years
5.0 4.7 4.5
4.0
3.9 3.5
3.0
2.5 Millions 2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100+ Age
Source: Census Bureau 17 First Time Homebuyers Increasing
First-Time Homebuyer Market Home sales 2.5 2.3
2.1 2.0
1.5
1.2 Millions 1.0
0.5
- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Genworth Mortgage Insurance 18 Single Family Starts Still Gathering Steam; Multifamily Steady
Housing Starts Seasonally adjusted annualized rate 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
Thousands 800 600 400 200 0
Single Family Multifamily
Source: Census Bureau, MBA Forecast 19 Builder Labor and Subcontractor Costs Continue to Increase
Average Increase in Cost Year over year percent change 8.0% 7.2% 7.0% 5.9% 6.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.0% 4.5% 3.9% 4.0% 3.3% 2.9% 3.0%
2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 CPI Labor Subcontractor
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index 20 Sluggish Home Sales As Inventory Remains Tight
Existing and New Homes For Sale Seasonally adjusted 4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000 Thousands 1,500
1,000
500
-
Jul-02 Jul-07 Jul-12 Jul-17
Apr-01 Oct-03 Apr-06 Oct-08 Apr-11 Oct-13 Apr-16
Jan-00 Jun-00 Jan-05 Jun-05 Jan-10 Jun-10 Jan-15 Jun-15
Feb-02 Mar-04 Feb-07 Mar-09 Feb-12 Mar-14 Feb-17
Nov-00 Dec-02 Nov-05 Dec-07 Nov-10 Dec-12 Nov-15 Dec-17
Sep-01 Aug-04 Sep-06 Aug-09 Sep-11 Aug-14 Sep-16
May-03 May-08 May-13 May-18 Existing New
Source: Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors 21 Share of Sales At, Above, or Below List Price in July 2018
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Sold Price = List Price Sold Price > List Price Sold Price < List Price
Source: Corelogic MLS July 2018 22 Home Price Appreciation High, But With Signs of Moderation
Quarterly percent change Year over year percent change 3.0% 10.0%
9.0% 2.5% 8.0%
7.0% 2.0% 6.0%
1.5% 5.0%
4.0% 1.0% 3.0%
2.0% 0.5% 1.0%
0.0% 0.0% US TX FL CA OH US TX FL CA OH Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency 23 Home Equity Has Risen Beyond Previous Peak
Homeowners Equity in Real Estate 16,000 15,190
14,000 13,418
12,000
10,000
8,000 Billions 6,000 6,037 4,000
2,000
-
Source: Federal Reserve Board 24 FHA and GSE Purchase Loans with CLTV > 95%
Number of loans with CLTV > 95% 100,000 100,000
Total (FHA, Fannie, Freddie)
75,000 75,000
FHA 50,000 50,000
25,000 25,000
Fannie Freddie
0 0 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 Mar-16 Oct-16 May-17 Dec-17
Source: AEI Center on Housing Markets and Finance 25 GSE Growth in Purchase Share Among > 620 FICO
Source: AEI Center on Housing Markets and Finance 26 Share of Agency Purchase Loans with DTI > 43%
Source: AEI Center on Housing Markets and Finance 27 Industry Benchmarking
28 Shape of the Mortgage Industry: IMBs Continue to Gain Volume Share
Share of Total Originations Volume (#) by Company Type
60% 54.3%
50%
40%
30% 22.0%
20% 17.4%
10% 6.3%
0% Large Depository Non-Depository Community Bank Credit Union 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: 2011-2016 HMDA 29 Challenging Times: Production Profitability Dropping in 2017 and 2018
200 Net Production Income (Basis Points)
150
100
45 50
42 Basis Points Basis 16 14 0
(50) (40) (73)
(100)
1999 2001 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2000 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 1H18 (P) 1H18 Large Banks Large Independents Mid-Size Banks Mid-Size Independents
Source: PGR: MBA and STRATMOR Peer Group Roundtables: www.mba.org/pgr 30 Among Peer Groups, Different Product & Investor Focus. Could This Be Changing?
77% Total Production Mix (% based on $)
70% 69% 65%
41% 40% 41% 37% 38% 34% 32%
24% 22% 20% 18% 19% 17% 16%
10% 8% 2% 4% 0% 0%
Purchase First-Time Homebuyer Government ARM Jumbo Originated for Portfolio
Large Banks Mid-Size Banks Large Independents Mid-Size Independents
Source: PGR (2017 data): MBA and STRATMOR Peer Group Roundtables: www.mba.org/pgr 31 Large Banks and IMBs are Heavily TPO, Relying on Volume from Others
Channel Mix (% based on Total $ Volume Originated)
Avg. Total Production Volume: $34.0B $21.2B $1.7B $2.4B 6% 10% Correspondent 4% 10% 11% 7% 47% 48%
Broker Wholesale/Mini-Corr 3%
14% 12% Consumer Direct 75% 77% 11%
37% Retail 29%
Large Banks Large Independents Mid-Size Banks Mid-Size Independents
Source: PGR (2017 data): MBA and STRATMOR Peer Group Roundtables: www.mba.org/pgr 32 Production Profitability (bps) Down Across Production Channels
Full PGR Sample, Basis Points Retail Consumer Direct 120.0 120.0
80.0 80.0
40.0 40.0 10.0 13.0 59.2 43.1 45.1 111.0 61.8 72.1 83.2 6.5 - -
(40.0) (40.0) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Broker Wholesale/Mini-Corr Correspondent 120.0 120.0
80.0 80.0
40.0 40.0 58.5 51.3 42.7 25.5 44.4 13.1 30.6 41.0 6.8 - - (8.6) (40.0) (40.0) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: PGR: MBA and STRATMOR Peer Group Roundtables: www.mba.org/pgr 33 Retail Sales Expense as % of Retail Production Revenue Expected to Be Even Higher for Full-Year 2018 Sales Expense Fulfillment Expense Production Support + Corporate Administration Expense 130%
44% 94% 94% 90% 16% 23% 16%
29% 19% 21% 24%
57% 59% 48% 54%
Large Banks Large Independents Mid-Size Banks Mid-Size Independents
Source: PGR (2017 data): MBA and STRATMOR Peer Group Roundtables: www.mba.org/pgr 34 Retail Sales and Fulfillment Productivity at Study Lows
Full PGR Sample 12.0 Loans Closed per Loan Officer (per mo) Loans Closed per Non-Producing Sales and Fulfillment FTE (per mo) 9.9 10.0 9.4 8.1 8.0 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.4 6.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.9 5.9 4.8 4.1 4.2 5.3 4.9 5.3 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.4 3.9 4.2 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.0 2.7 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18 (P)
180 149 150 Apps per Underwriter (per mo) 127 140 119 106 97 98 100 72 58 60 50 35 35 35 34 29 25 20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18 (P)
Source: PGR: MBA and STRATMOR Peer Group Roundtables: www.mba.org/pgr 35 Sales Costs May Be Getting Tougher to Justify
Median Annual Percentage Change in Loan Officer Total Compensation 2,500 40.1%
$2,044 $2,051 2,000 $1,845 24.4% $1,760 $1,679 1,500 $1,436 11.1% $1,261
1,000
-5.1% -4.3% 500
-19.6% -21.8% - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Annual Percentage Change % in LO Total Compensation MBA Industry Volume ($Bs)
Source: Residential Compensation Survey Program; McLagan, an AON Hewitt Company: www.mba.org/compensation 36 Are Purchase Loans Originated through the Consumer Direct Channel?
Channel Mix (% based on Purchase Volume in Count)
Avg. Purchase Production Volume ($): $22.1B $14.8B $1.2B $1.8B Avg. Purchase Production Volume (#): 117,928 90,835 7,033 10,131
8% 5% 7% Correspondent 5% 7%
57% 55% Broker Wholesale/Mini-Corr
87% Consumer Direct 11% 80% 13%
33% Retail 28%
Large Banks Large Independents Mid-Size Banks Mid-Size Independents
Source: PGR (2017 data): MBA and STRATMOR Peer Group Roundtables: www.mba.org/pgr 37 The Consumer Direct Channel: Two Models, Different Results
Consumer Direct Channel Profitability (basis points) 350 Servicing Portfolio Retention model 300 Total PGR Sample New Customer Acquisition model 250
200
150 BasisPoints
100
50
- 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: PGR: MBA and STRATMOR Peer Group Roundtables: www.mba.org/pgr 38 The Independent Mortgage Banker: Latest Quarterly Data through 2Q18
39 Second Quarter IMB Profits Up over First Quarter, Down Year-over-Year $900
86.5 $800
74.6 72.6 73.7 67.3 $700 60.4 55.3 $600
45.7 45.7 $500 42.1 40.5 38.2 32.1 33.2 $400 24.0 21.6 21.3 $300 8.7 10.4 9.3
$200 Avg Production Production Avg Volume ($Ms)
$100 (8.3) (7.8)
$0
Q113 Q213 Q414 Q115 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q218 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118
Net Production Income (bps) Avg. Production Volume ($M)
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report, www.mba.org/performancereport 40 IMB Net Production Profits by Most Recent Quarter Lower than Historicals
57.4
48.4 47.6
40.5 38.0 36.4
21.3 15.8 9.3
(7.8) All QTR Avg. Q3 Avg. Q317 Q4 Avg. Q417 Q1 Avg. Q118 Q2 Avg. Q218 Avg. Q317-Q218
Avg. Quarterly Production Profit (bps): 2008 - Q2 2018 Production Profit (bps) - Most Current Quarter
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report, www.mba.org/performancereport 41 326 347 Q218
377 Q118 370
Q417
Q317
Q217 42 Q117 id Revenues id
D Q416
Q316
Q216
Q116
Q415
Q315 (bps) Expense Production Fully-Loaded
Q215
Q115
Q414 www.mba.org/performancereport
Q314
Q214 (bps) Revenue Production
Q114
Q413
Q313
Q213 Production Expenses Dropped in 2Q, but So So but 2Q, in Dropped Expenses Production Q113
IMB IMB 200 250 300 350 400 Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report, Report, Performance Bankers MBA’s Mortgage Quarterly Source: IMB Production Costs Vary by Geographic Region
2Q 2018 IMB Production Costs per Loan Avg loan balance by Geographic Region (Company Headquarters) $ per Loan $350,000 $12,000 $10,000 $9,693 $350,000
$8,897 $300,000 9,693 $10,000 $7,862 $7,984 $7,877 $8,000 $300,000 $7,490 8,897 $250,000 7,862 7,984 7,877 $6,407 7,490 $8,000
$6,000 $250,000 $200,000 6,407
$6,000
$150,000 $4,000 $200,000 $4,000 $100,000
$2,000 $150,000 $2,000 $50,000
$-$- $- $100,000 Midwest South (ex. TX) Northeast TX West (ex. CA) CA Total Midwest South (ex. TX) Northeast TX West (ex. CA) CA Total $ per loan $6,407 $7,490 $7,862 $7,984 $8,897 $9,693 $7,877 Avg loan balance $197,599 $256,209 $264,344 $227,532 $256,828 $315,039 $249,771
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report, www.mba.org/performancereport 43 IMBs Retaining Less Servicing in 2018 Compared to Previous Years 40%
35% 33%
30%
25% 21% 20% 1st Mtg Volume - Servicing Retained (% based on $) 15% 15% 10%
5%
0%
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q113
Q213
Q313
Q413
Q114
Q214
Q314
Q414
Q115
Q215
Q315
Q415
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Q117
Q217
Q317
Q417
Q118 Q218
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report, www.mba.org/performancereport 44 Servicing Retention Helping Some IMBs Stay Profitable
% of IMBs with Pre-Tax Net Income > 0
100% 94% 92% 94% 92% 90% 90% 88% 86% 86% 82% 83% 77% 77% 80% 74% 74% 72% 73% 73% 70% 67% 60% 58% 56% 60% 54% 56% 50%
40% 36% 30%
20%
10%
0%
Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218
% of Cos. with Pre-Tax Net Income > 0 Excluding Svg Revenues and Expenses
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report, www.mba.org/performancereport 45 Servicing
46 Mortgage Delinquencies Down, but Natural Disasters Having Impact
Mortgage Delinquency Rates by Loan Type Seasonally adjusted, based on loan count, excludes loans in foreclosure 16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00 8.70
Percent 8.00
6.00 4.36 4.00 3.97 3.45
2.00
2006 2007 2011 2012 2016 2017 2004 2005 2008 2009 2010 2013 2014 2015 2018
All Loans Conventional Loans FHA Loans VA Loans
Source: NDS: National Delinquency Survey, www.mba.org/nds 47 Foreclosure Inventory Rate at Lowest Level Since 2006
Loans in Foreclosure and New Foreclosures Started Non- seasonally adjusted, percent
5.00 1.60
4.50 1.40 4.00 1.20 3.50 1.00 3.00
2.50 0.80
2.00 0.60 1.50 1.05 0.40 1.00 0.20 0.50 0.24
0.00 0.00
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent of Loans in Foreclosure (left axis) Foreclosure Starts Rate (right axis)
Source: NDS: National Delinquency Survey, www.mba.org/nds 48 Servicing Profitability Improving in 2018
$600
$500
$400
$300 $246 $200 $118 $ per Loan $ per $100
$0
($100)
($200)
2000 2001 2004 2005 2008 2009 2012 2013 2016 2017 1999 2002 2003 2006 2007 2010 2011 2014 2015 1H18 (P) 1H18 Net Servicing Financial Income Net Servicing Operating Income
Source: MBA’s Servicing Operations Study and Forum. www.mba.org/sosf; 1H2018: PGR 49 Technology
50 Technology Costs per Loan at All-Time Study Highs Production Technology and Corporate Technology Costs per Loan $1,600 $1,473
$1,400 $1,350
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$ per per Loan $ $526 $600 $493
$400 $470
$200 $299
$0
1999 2003 2004 2008 2009 2013 2014 2000 2001 2002 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 2012 2015 2016 2017 1H18 (P) 1H18 Large Banks Large Independents Mid-Size Banks Mid-Size Independents
Source: PGR: MBA and STRATMOR Peer Group Roundtables: www.mba.org/pgr 51 The Loan Origination Process: Top Tech Spending Increases (2017-2018 Budget) = Consumer Comes First
1. Internet Point of Sale: Consumer Use 2. Internet Point of Sale: Loan Officer Use 3. CRM System 4. Mobile Point of Sale 5. Customer Document Upload/View Capability 6. LOS 7. Robotic Processing Automation (RPA) 8. Data Aggregation - VOA 9. Regulatory Compliance 10. Product/Pricing Engine (PPE)
* Based on a total of 28 tech spending priorities in the loan origination process. Excludes other spending priorities for infrastructure, data security, network administration, servicing, etc
Source: MBA and Celent Tech Spending Survey 2018, Loan Origination Process 52 CIOs Surveyed on Mortgage Applicant Adoption Levels: If You Build It, Will They Come? % of CIOs Reporting Various Adoption Levels
E-Signature (for 1003/disclosures) 59% 14% 9% 9% 9% Customer Document Upload/View Capability 29% 29% 29% 14% Internet - Point of Sale (Consumer Use) 23% 23% 27% 18% 5%5% Data Aggregation - VOE 11% 58% 21% 5% 5% Mobile - Point of Sale 9% 14% 32% 9% 18% 18% Data Aggregation - VOI 5% 63% 11% 11% 11% E-Signature - Deed 4% 17% 48% 30%0% Digital Closing Platform0% 7% 20% 73% E-Signature - Note0% 6% 13% 81% Data Aggregation - VOA0% 28% 33% 17% 22% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mortgage Applicant Adoption Levels:
Source: MBA and Celent Tech Spending Survey 2018, Loan Origination Process 53 Forecast Scenarios
54 Total Originations Forecast Scenarios Dollar volume 2,100 2,051
2,000
1,900 1,852 1,779 1,800 1,760 1,756 1,726 1,709 1,700 1,740 1,636 1,630 1,679 1,683
Billions 1,600 1,650 1,610 1,500 1,556
1,400
1,300 1,334
1,200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Base Rate Increase Rate Decrease Adverse
Source: MBA Forecast 55 Purchase Originations Scenarios Dollar volume 1,500 1,416 1,400 1,376 1,329 1,320 1,292 1,300 1,235 1,308 1,273 1,185 1,200 1,143 1,199 1,169
Billions 1,100 1,139 1,052
1,000
903 900
800 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Base Rate Increase Rate Decrease Adverse
Source: MBA Forecast 56 Refinance Originations Scenarios Dollar volume 1,200
999 1,000
776 800 653 616 587 610 600
Billions 436 451 416 395 400 432 410 227 200 233 234 194
- 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Base Rate Increase Rate Decrease Adverse
Source: MBA Forecast 57 MBA Research Sign-Ups and Services
58 Contact Information and MBA Resources
Mike Fratantoni, Ph.D. Chief Economist & Senior Vice President | Research and Industry Technology 202-557-2935 [email protected]
Marina B Walsh Vice President, Industry Analysis | Research and Economics 202-557-2817 [email protected]
MBA Research: RIHA: www.mba.org/research www.housingamerica.org
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