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Ramsey Station Tod Market Analysis RAMSEY STATION TOD MARKET ANALYSIS Prepared for: City of Ramsey Northstar Corridor Development Authority Prepared by: McComb Group, Ltd. Vantage Point Development Advisors Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. May 2013 RAMSEY STATION TOD MARKET ANALYSIS Prepared for: City of Ramsey Northstar Corridor Development Authority Prepared by: McComb Group, Ltd. Vantage Point Development Advisors Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. May 2013 [Back of inside coversheet] “The work that provided the basis for this publication was supported by funding under an award with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The substance and findings of the work are dedicated to the public. The author and publisher are solely responsible for the accuracy of the statements and interpretations contained in this publication. Such interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government." TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Subject Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................ vii Northstar Commuter Rail ...................................................................................... vii Commuter Rail ....................................................................................................... ix Commuter Rail Transit-Oriented Development ..................................................... ix Ramsey Development Potential ...............................................................................x Residential Development ................................................................................. xi Retail Development ........................................................................................ xii Office Development ........................................................................................ xii I INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................. 1-1 Background .......................................................................................................... 1-1 Transit Oriented Development ............................................................................. 1-2 Commuter Rail vs. Light Rail .............................................................................. 1-4 Commuter Rail TOD ............................................................................................ 1-5 Application to Northstar Corridor ........................................................................ 1-6 II NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR STATIONS ........................................................ 2-1 Ramsey Commuting............................................................................................. 2-4 III REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK ......... 3-1 Employment Trends ............................................................................................. 3-1 Corridor Employment .................................................................................... 3-3 Major Industries and Drivers ......................................................................... 3-6 Major Employers ........................................................................................... 3-7 Ramsey Employment ..................................................................................... 3-8 Population and Households.................................................................................. 3-8 Population and Household Forecasts ........................................................... 3-10 IV NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR RESIDENTIAL MARKET CONDITIONS ... 4-1 Residential Market ............................................................................................... 4-1 For-Sale Market ............................................................................................. 4-3 Apartment Market .......................................................................................... 4-4 Ramsey Population and Households .................................................................... 4-5 Ramsey Residential Market ................................................................................. 4-9 For-Sale Market ............................................................................................. 4-9 Apartment Market ........................................................................................ 4-11 Ramsey Realtor Surveys .................................................................................... 4-13 Residential Growth Estimates ............................................................................ 4-14 Twin Cities Area Residential Growth Corridors ......................................... 4-15 Historic Residential Growth ........................................................................ 4-16 Ramsey Residential Growth ........................................................................ 4-17 Multi-Family Development Trends ............................................................. 4-18 Household Formation................................................................................... 4-19 i TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) Chapter Subject Page Stabilized Residential Demand .................................................................... 4-20 Ramsey Residential Demand ....................................................................... 4-21 V COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE.................................................................... 5-1 Twin Cities Area Retail Market ........................................................................... 5-1 Northstar Corridor Shopping Centers .................................................................. 5-1 Ramsey Shopping Centers ................................................................................... 5-3 Ramsey Retail Development ................................................................................ 5-3 Office Market ....................................................................................................... 5-3 Ramsey Office Space ........................................................................................... 5-5 Planned Development .......................................................................................... 5-5 Industrial Market .................................................................................................. 5-5 Ramsey Industrial Development .......................................................................... 5-6 VI RAMSEY STATION DRAW AREA DEMOGRAPHICS ............................. 6-1 Ramsey Station Draw Area .................................................................................. 6-1 Population and Households ............................................................................. 6-1 Household Income ........................................................................................... 6-2 Household Density Distribution ...................................................................... 6-3 Household Income Distribution ...................................................................... 6-4 Population Age ................................................................................................ 6-5 Demographic Characteristics .......................................................................... 6-6 Station Area Sales Potential ................................................................................. 6-6 VII RAMSEY STATION AREA DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL .................... 7-1 Ramsey Station .................................................................................................... 7-1 Commuter Service ........................................................................................... 7-2 Traffic Counts .................................................................................................. 7-3 Surrounding Land Use and Development ....................................................... 7-3 The COR at Ramsey ............................................................................................ 7-4 Civic Amenities ............................................................................................... 7-5 Commercial Projects ....................................................................................... 7-6 Medical ............................................................................................................ 7-6 Education ......................................................................................................... 7-7 Residential Projects ......................................................................................... 7-7 Development Summary ....................................................................................... 7-7 Planned Developments .................................................................................... 7-8 Land Use Plans and Policies ................................................................................ 7-8 Infrastructure Plans and Needs ............................................................................ 7-8 Development Opportunities ................................................................................. 7-9 Residential Development .............................................................................. 7-10 Retail Development ........................................................................................... 7-11 Office Development ........................................................................................... 7-11 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) Chapter
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