SINGAPORE VIEW JUL 2017 - SEP 2017 A COLLECTION OF THE FINEST PROPERTIES & DEVELOPMENTS JULY 2017 - SEPTEMBER 2017 • 1 CONTENTS INDUSTRIAL 17 38 JALAN BUROH 13 AUCTION EUHABITAT OFFICE RESIDENTIAL (LOCAL) 31 FRAGRANCE 34 ARTRA EMPIRE BUILDING 62 64 RESIDENTIAL (LEASING) RESIDENTIAL (SALES) 8 @ NAPIER GALLOP GREEN SINGAPORE VIEW • 2 WELCOME INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT & 04 38 JALAN BUROH 23 CAPITAL MARKETS RIO CASA 06 MARKET RESEARCH 10 ADVISORY SERVICES 12 AUCTION 17 INDUSTRIAL RESIDENTIAL (LOCAL) RESIDENTIAL (INTERNATIONAL) ARTRA 46 PALACE VIEW 23 INVESTMENT & CAPITAL MARKETS 31 OFFICE 32 PROPERTY ASSET MANAGEMENT 34 RESIDENTIAL LOCAL PROJECTS 46 RESIDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS 62 RESIDENTIAL LEASING 64 RESIDENTIAL SALES 66 66 RETAIL RETAIL FUSIONOPOLIS ONE JULY 2017 - SEPTEMBER 2017 • 3 WELCOME In May, Knight Frank Singapore broke the news by clinching the first en bloc deal of the year with One Tree Hill. Within the same month, we claimed the third en bloc sale of 2017, with Rio Casa, which transacted for over half a billion dollars. There has been much development in the Singapore real estate market of late. Local and international developers have been moving quickly to replenish their land banks through Government Land Sales, collective sales and land acquisitions, with more than half of such bids coming from foreign developers. The month of May also saw the highest bid price of over S$1 billion for a residential government site tender in Stirling Road. Yet, with the buzz surrounding the residential property market, residential property prices have witnessed an average drop of 3.1% quarter-on- quarter (q-o-q) in Q1 2017, with average gross rental yields across the market slipping to 3.2% in the same quarter from 3.3% in Q4 2016. Looking ahead, we anticipate prices island-wide to drop further and sales volume for the year to fall between 8,000 to 9,000 units. On the back of an improving global economic and trade outlook, the office market registered the lowest quarterly decline in a quarter for Grade A+ and A office buildings in the last five quarters, showing signs that the office market is starting to bottom out. Should the momentum continue towards the end of the year, office rents of prime grade spaces are likely to dip by 2% to 3% year-on-year (y-o-y) by Q4 2017, making the next two quarters the final window for tenants to benefit from lower rents and new available spaces. Over the last two years, technology firms and co-working centres have become major occupiers, taking advantage of lower rents to increase their foot print and taking up sizable units within Grade A+ office buildings. While the manufacturing industry is showing signs of growth of 8% in Q1 2017, industrial rents in all areas except the Bukit Merah, Alexandra and Jalan Kilang clusters experienced a 2% q-o-q drop. Business park rents however, maintained at $4.25 psf pm despite lower leasing activities in the first quarter of the year. We foresee average rents and prices for leasehold properties to fall by 5% to 8% by the last quarter this year. In the first quarter of 2017, rents of prime retail spaces across the island dipped 1.4% y-o-y, with the Marina Square, City Hall and Bugis precincts dropping a 3.7% y-o-y as landlords compete to offer attractive rental packages to draw retailers. Uncertain market sentiment, weak retail spending, rising business costs and manpower shortages are just some of the challenges faced by both landlords and retailers alike. Suburban malls are seeing a 2.1% y-o-y fall as some continue to grapple with weak patronage and finding the right retail trade mix. With the onslaught of major e-tailers set to grow their online presence in Singapore, we urge brick-and-mortar retailers to revisit their business strategy so as to engage, retain and attract consumers. Danny Yeo Chairman & Group Managing Director Knight Frank Pte Ltd SINGAPORE VIEW • 4 SINGAPORE VIEW jul 2017 - sep 2017 EDITOR Liew Lixia RESEARCH CONTENT Alice Tan MARKETING Phyllis Goh DESIGNER Regina Ang COVER IMAGE ARTRA READ MORE ON PAGE 34 JULY 2017 - SEPTEMBER 2017 • 5 MARKET RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH RETAIL SYNOPSIS OFFICE RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE RESALE PRICES, RENTS AND GROSS YIELDS OF RESIDENTIAL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY, BY MARKET SEGMENT Based on Knight Frank’s analysis of a Source: REALIS, (based on data as at 19 April 2017), URA (based on rental contract data as at 17 April 2017), basket of private residential properties, Knight Frank Research the average resale prices across all market segments fell, on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. The high-end and mass-market AVERAGE RESALE PRICES Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Y-O-Y segments both saw more pronounced (S$ PER SQ FT STRATA AREA) CHANGE decline of 3.8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q1 2017. Meanwhile, the mid- HIGH-END $2,086 $2,005 -3.8% tier segment witnessed a moderate dip of MID-TIER $1,506 $1,481 -1.7% 1.7% q-o-q, in light of gradually returning MASS-MARKET $1,019 $ 980 -3.8% interest for private homes with improving transaction volumes for 2016. Gross rental yields across all market AVERAGE RENTS segments continued to slip in Q1 2017. (S$ PER SQ FT STRATA AREA PER MONTH) Yields in the high-end market segment stood at 2.95%, while mid-tier and HIGH-END $5.20 $4.84 -7.0% mass-market yields both averaged MID-TIER $4.27 $4.07 -4.7% approximately 3.30%. MASS-MARKET $2.87 $2.67 -7.1% Approximately 11,322 private homes are slated for completion in 2017 – before the pipeline tapers, according to Q1 2017 GROSS YIELDS (%) statistics from URA. The Outside Central Region (OCR) will contribute half of this HIGH-END 2.99% 2.95% upcoming supply. MID-TIER 3.40% 3.29% MASS-MARKET 3.38% 3.30% UPCOMING PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY, BY MARKET SEGMENT (AS AT Q1 2017) Source: URA, Knight Frank Research CCR RCR OCR >2021 2020 2020 2019 2018 2017 NO.OF UNITS 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 SINGAPORE VIEW • 6 AVERAGE OFFICE RENTALS, BY KEY PRECINCTS IN Q1 2017 Q-O-Q CHANGE CBD (GRADE A+, GRADE A) RAFFLES PLACE/ MARINA BAY GRADE A+ S$9.10 - -1.0% S$9.60 OFFICE RESEARCH RAFFLES PLACE/ MARINA BAY GRADE A S$8.00 - -0.7% S$8.50 SHENTON WAY/ ROBINSON ROAD/ TANJONG PAGAR GRADE A S$7.60 - 0.5% S$8.10 MARINA CENTRE/ SUNTEC GRADE A S$7.70 OFFICE - -1.6% S$8.20 Amid a brighter global economic outlook, the office market showed signs of stabilisation with slowing rental decline and continued leasing CITY HALL GRADE A activity in the Central Business District. Average rent of Grade A+ and S$7.90 - Grade A office buildings in the Raffles Place/ Marina Bay precinct -0.6% S$8.40 decreased by 1.0% and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis respectively, reflecting the lowest quarterly decline over the last five CENTRAL AREA quarters. (OUTSIDE CBD) ORCHARD GRADE A S$7.80 This slowdown in rental decline in core CBD is attributed to increased - leasing activity, especially in the prime office segment. New take up for -0.8% S$8.30 office space firmed up in Q1 2017 with more enterprises, particularly technology firms and co-working centres, increasing their footprints OTHERS in Singapore. Furthermore, the momentum of flight-to-quality spurred FRINGE AREAS S$4.70 by the attractive single-digit prime rental level led to higher absorption -1.4% - of prime office space. S$6.80 As a key regional business-friendly hub with lower office occupancy SUBURBAN costs compared to rival Asian gateway city Hong Kong, Singapore will AREAS S$4.20 remain a favoured location for global businesses. Improving business - -0.7% sentiment is also expected to boost leasing activity for both new and S$5.20 existing office space supply in the coming quarters this year, which sets the stage for an earlier than expected office market recovery in H2 2017. Knight Frank projects office rent of prime grade spaces in the CBD to moderate by a lower 2% to 3% decline y-o-y by Q4 2017. Source: Knight Frank Research (1) Rents are based on transacted leases (2) Rents are based on a lease term If so, the next two quarters would be a final window for tenants to take of at least three years (3) Rents are expressed as values rounded to nearest 10 cent (4) Rents are estimated based on leases of a whole-floor office advantage of lower rents and the new available supply in the CBD to space on the mid-floor levels of office properties, and taking into account relocate or restructure their existing leases. rent free period and other concessions UPCOMING OFFICE SUPPLY (AS AT MARCH 2017) Source: URA, Knight Frank Research SUBURBAN FRINGE (WEST) FRINGE (EAST) SUNTEC/MARINA/CITY HALL & REST OF CENTRAL AREA ORCHARD SHENTON WAY/ROBINSON ROAD/TANJONG PAGAR MARINA BAY/RAFFLES PLACE 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 GROSS FLOOR AREA (’000 SQ FT) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 JULY 2017 - SEPTEMBER 2017 • 7 AVERAGE GROSS RENTS OF PRIME RETAIL SPACES – Q1 2017 LOCATION $ PER SQ FT Y-O-Y CHANGE PER MONTH Q-O-Q CHANGE RETAIL RESEARCH RETAIL ISLAND- S$30.80 -1.4% WIDE -0.4% ORCHARD S$35.00 -0.7% ROAD NO CHANGE RETAIL MARINA S$30.40 -3.7% Overall, average island-wide prime retail rents saw further decline in Q1 2017, CENTRE, CITY HALL, -1.8% largely due to lower rents from Marina Centre, City Hall and Bugis precincts as BUGIS landlords continue to offer attractive rental packages to draw retailers.