ELECTION UPDATE 2004 SOUTH AFRICA

Number 8 3 May 2004

editorial election of 1999. Thus, the This outcome therefore, has election outcome of 2004 invalidated earlier projections points to the possibility that of some political actors for a The broader significance and South Africa’s democratic two-party system emerging as a meaning of an electoral process system is being institutionalised by-product of the 2004 election to any democracy is not merely and habitualised. The election itself. It does seem that the confined to the voting day and its outcome have dominant party system is alone. The actual meaning and entrenched a culture of poised to endure for the significance of an election to a predictability that is required foreseeable future. democracy is thus far broader for the legitimacy of rule in the than just voting. It is, in country. Not only that: the Khabele Matlosa essence, linked in a large election itself has helped the measure to pre-election country to decisively put contents processes including registration behind it the culture of and political campaign. It is yesteryear’s violent politics as a Editorial 1 pretty much connected to the means of resolving political National Perspectives actual voting that defines the disputes and divergent Post-election Phase: Election choice of leadership by the ideological world outlooks. It Results and Post-Election 2 Ten Years of Democracy and the electorate during election day. has instead inculcated a It is equally linked to the State of Opposition Politics in political culture of consensus South Africa 9 character or the immediate and accommodation necessary election aftermath i.e. the Provincial Roundup for a fragile democracy under Gauteng 13 acceptance of election results conditions of multi-racialism. NorthWest 15 and the extent of political KZN 18 stability that prevails. There have been other various FreeState 23 interpretations of the election Western Cape 27 This eighth issue of our and its aftermath that we may Eastern Cape 30 fortnightly bulletin, Election not be able to tease out in detail Northern Cape 33 Update, therefore grapples with in this bulletin. However, one Mpumalanga 35 Previous Issue Contents 38 the critical issues that surround of these is worth emphasising the election outcome and its here. The election has also immediate aftermath. By all confirmed some of our earlier EISA Editorial Team indications, the South African arguments in this Update that Jackie Kalley, Khabele Matlosa, election of April 2004, was an South Africa’s political system Denis Kadima important defining moment for or to be more precise, its party published with the assistance of the country’s decade of system is marked principally by OSF-SA and NORAD democratic governance. The the dominant party system. ISSN: 1811-7422 election has unequivocally This in simple terms denotes a vindicated observations and situation whereby even under a analyses that portray the condition of multipartyism, country as destined for a stable only one party the ANC (the democratic dispensation ruling party) is dominant that following the founding election opposition parties pose little, if of 1994 and the stabilising any, political challenge at all. Election update 2004 south africa number 8

NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES

POST-ELECTION relatively high (1994 - Western European levels of PHASE 86.86% and 1999 - 89.30%) participation, but still higher ELECTION RESULTS while in local government than most African and Latin AND POST-ELECTION elections they are low (1995 American states, as well as REVIEW - 48.79% and 2000 - Japan’s and the United 48.07%). States’. It is noteworthy that Dr Dirk Kotze the general assumption about Unisa For the 2004 elections, from voter apathy in Europe is not confirmed by this summary. Introduction a potential of 27.4 million eligible voters, about 20.67 Nine of the top twenty voter For a period of four days million registered, which turnout averages are between 14 and 17 April amounts to 75.4% of the European, three are Asian, 2004 the election and its total. Of these registered two are Oceanian and six are aftermath was in the balance voters 76.73% voted in the African. The conventional while the final vote counting elections, which are 57.5% wisdom that a decline in and time for objections of all the eligible voters. voter participation is proceeded. On Saturday, 17 Compared to international associated with political April the IEC declared the benchmarks, it is not a low ‘normalisation’, is not final results and announced percentage, though the supported by these statistics. the allocation of seats in the decline between 1999 and Several explanations for the national and provincial 2004 of almost thirteen lower voter turnout in 2004 legislatures. Three percentage points is can be suggested, though we phenomena dominated this worrisome. International are not really sure of the period: good management of IDEA in Stockholm exact reasons. Some would the result capturing process calculated the voter turnout argue that the Easter within three days, the IFP’s averages of the elections weekend immediately before objection to the number of held since 1945. The the election meant that many section 24A votes cast in following are a few selected people were not in their KZN and its reference to the comparative indicators registered voting districts on Electoral Court, and (number of elections per the day of the election and inconclusive negotiation state in brackets, followed by were also not aware of about a KZN provincial the average percentage voter section 24A. Rain in coalition government. participation in those Limpopo province might elections): have been another The following discussion is a broad overview of some of Country Average % voter contributing factor. Others the aspects of the post- turnout were apathetic because the Italy (14) 92.5 ANC was sure of its victory, election phase. The first New Zealand (18 86.2 topic of importance is the Netherlands (15) 84.8 and therefore many voters Sweden (17) 83.3 have had little motivation to voter turn-out. Mauritius (6) 82.8 Germany (13) 80.6 cast their vote. For others, Voter Turnout Venezuela (9 72.2 there was no viable Japan (21) 69.0 alternative for the ANC, South Africans have become Trinidad & Tobago 66.2 (11) because the spectrum of used to the idea that in the USA (26) 48.3 minority parties was too instances of national and Mali (2) 21.7 fragmented and sectoral. provincial elections voter The lower voter turnout was turnout or the percentage South Africa’s percentage is a surprise for many election voter participation is lower than a number of

2 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

Floor analysts. A Markinor opinion Floor-crossing and the Election Party crossing +/- 2004 poll conducted in February Election Results 2003 2004 concluded that 87-92 ANC 68.75 69.68 +0.93 percent of registered voters Prior to the election several DA 12.0 12.37 +0.37 opinion polls were IFP 7.75 6.97 -0.78 indicated their intention to UDM 1.0 2.28 +1.28 vote in the election. published, including those by ID 0.25 1.73 +1.53 the HSRC (November 2003), NNP 5.0 1.65 -3.35 Markinor (November 2003 ACDP 1.75 1.60 -0.15 This prediction did not come FF+ 0.80 0.89 +0.09 true. Most of those who and February 2004) and UCDP 0.78 0.75 -0.03 Mark Data (March/April PAC 0.71 0.73 -0.02 indicated that they were MF 0.25 0.35 +0.10 2004). AZAPO 0.25 0.27 +0.02 unlikely to vote, said that ‘my vote will make no These polls appear to be The most pertinent difference’. A feature of the relatively accurate in respect observation is the NNP’s election has been the of the ANC and to a lesser decline: minus 3.35% since relatively small percentage degree with the DA. In the floor-crossing a year ago. of spoilt votes: a total of 250 respect of the NNP all of The UDM was most hurt by 887 or 1.61% of all the votes them were off the mark, the floor-crossing in 2003, cast. It emerges as a while in the case of the IFP, losing 2.4% of its support. significant number of votes Markinor is unreliable, but With this election it turned considered that only six of the HSRC and Mark Data the tide around and gained the 21 parties at national more accurate. Given the 1.28% again. The level received more votes. fact that the ACDP, UDM, Independent Democrats (ID) The ACDP received 600 FF+ and ID received within is still too young for any votes less and the NNP 7 000 a narrow margin (0.9 - 2.3%) conclusions to be votes more than the spoilt their voter support, even meaningful. votes. The number of special small miscalculations in the votes are even more polls are therefore significant Another striking feature is significant - a total of 651 for them. None of the polls that all the other parties 438 or 4.17% of all the could predict them moved up or down within a votes. They were votes cast accurately. range of one percentage at diplomatic missions point, which is remarkably outside South Africa, votes If one compares the 2004 consistent. Though floor- by election officials, by the election results with the crossing is often discarded elderly, patients in hospitals, effect of the floor-crossing in opportunism of individuals immobile pregnant women, March-April 2003, it appears who are primarily concerned security officials on duty on to be the best barometer about their political careers, election day and similar (except for the NNP) of the the 2004 results suggest that categories of voters - but 2004 elections. It is they reflected the public they do not include the presented in the following opinion quite well, and that section 24A votes. The table: since April 2003 it remained highest percentage of special relatively stagnant, except votes were cast in the North for the NNP and UDM. West province, followed by Mpumalanga. The lowest The Results percentage were cast in the Western Cape, followed by The ANC’s dominance in KZN - a trend repeating the South African party politics low voter turnout in the has been extended with this provinces. election. While in 1999 it was one parliamentary seat

3 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 short of a two-thirds majority comparison to the floor- where the IFP is almost in the National Assembly, in crossing, its support absent. this election it reached a increased by 0.37%. point well above that Together with the IFP in the Speculation is rife on the symbolic level. On 15 April ‘Coalition for Change’, it significance of the ANC’s 2004 - one day after the publicly anticipated thirty two-third majority. Firstly, it election and before all the percent support (twenty enables the party to amend results were declared - the percent for itself and ten the Constitution without ANC already issued a percent for the IFP). In the support from any other party. preliminary analysis of the end their combined support Few observers, however, results. It concluded that amounts to 19.34%. For both acknowledge the fact that the working class and poor areas partners the election alliance Constitution’s basic values were showing confidence in did not broaden their support are entrenched in section 1 the ANC; that its support bases: the DA could not and can be amended only base has become more attract substantial black with a 75% majority. But diversified, including support and the IFP could secondly and more significant sectors of the not extend its support significantly, a two-thirds middle class; and that beyond KZN. The DA made majority signifies opposition parties were most of its gains from the ‘overwhelming’ support for ‘competing for a shrinking NNP’s decline in the the ANC, which will have as pool of support’. Regarding Western Cape - about sixteen a result more political and the NNP’s decline, the ANC percent went to the DA and bargaining power in its observed that ‘whether this about seven percent to the interactions with the other reflects a continuing trend of ID; mainly as a parties. decline since 1994 or lack of white/Coloured split. clarity in message is a matter The Provincial Influence of conjecture. Further A characteristic of this analysis is needed on the election was the formation of The results at provincial residue of support it retains, election alliances: level provide a deeper reflecting an acceptance of ANC/NNP, IFP/DA, insight into the voting the message of co-operation IFP/FF+, IFP/ patterns. A useful point of with the ANC’. Alliance for Democracy and departure is to focus on the Prosperity (Limpopo), voter turnout per province In respect of the UDM and PAC/Dikwankwetla (Free and to compare them with ID, the ANC is of the State), and FF+/Cape voter support per party. opinion that the UDM has Coloured Congress (Western entered a phase of decline, and Northern Cape). None of In the case of the ANC a losing support in rural these alliances have made a significant pattern emerged. Eastern Cape and in the tangible impact on the As seen in the table at the white community. For the eventual results. The NNP end of this article, the voter ANC, the significance of sacrificed much of its turnouts of all three general white support for the UDM support partly because of its elections are listed (in and ID, is that it might close association with the brackets is the ranking of represent their transition ANC; the DA gained - not each province) and next to toward the ANC. because of the IFP - but each of them is the ANC’s because of the NNP’s percentage majority in each The DA consolidated its demise; the FF+ recovered province. status as official opposition from its losses in the floor- and increased its national crossing but in the Western From this table it is possible support by 2.81%. In Cape and the Free State to conclude that Limpopo is

4 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 the province which was most In addition to the voter The DA has shown seriously affected by voter turnout per province, it is percentage increase in all the apathy. While in 1999, it had also possible to make a provinces, most significantly the highest level of voter comparison of the real in the Western Cape participation, it dropped to numbers of votes cast in (+15.20%). In the Northern the fifth place. Gauteng is 1999 and 2004. Though in Cape it experienced its another cause of concern, 2004 more voters were second strongest growth at with a gradual but consistent registered than in 1999, the +6.31%, followed by the decline: fourth in 1994, fifth lower voter turnout meant Free State with +3.14%. All in 1999 and seventh in 2004. that almost the same number of the other provinces On the other hand, the of votes were cast: 15 977 showed a growth of less than Eastern Cape demonstrated a 142 in 1999 and 15 863 554 three percent. Its lowest good recovery, moving from in 2004. growth was in KZN the fourth to the highest (+0.20%). It is also the voter turnout. Similarly, the Firstly, in respect of the province in which it lost a North West also improved ANC, it increased its real real number of votes; in all from the second last to the number of votes at national the other provinces it gained fourth place. The provinces level by 276 921. By far the also in real terms, mainly most consistent in their voter most of these gains were from the NNP’s losses. The participation are the made in the Eastern Cape DA’s main concentration Northern Cape and KZN. and KZN. In KZN it also points are the Western Cape Over the last two elections increased its percentage and Gauteng. It is the official Mpumalanga, the Free State support with 7.67% and in opposition party in all the and Western Cape also the Eastern Cape with provinces except for the remained consistent. The 5.47%. Other provinces Eastern Cape (UDM) and the most unpredictable province where it made gains in real North West (UCDP). In is Limpopo: in1994 it was number of votes are KZN it might play the role of sixth, in 1999 first and in Northern Cape, Western official opposition since the 2004 fifth. Cape, North West and IFP joined the ANC in a Mpumalanga. Though it coalition government. For the ANC, a discernible increased its percentage tendency emerged from the majority in Limpopo, Compared to 1999, the voter turnout. In 2004 a Gauteng and the Free State ACDP increased its national direct and positive (with less than one support by 0.07%, but lost correlation existed between percentage point in each 0.15% compared to the the level of ANC support in instance), it lost support in floor-crossing. In terms of the provinces and the voter real votes - most notably 153 real number of votes, its turnout per province. The 943 in the provincial election support increased in the Free Eastern Cape* and in Gauteng. State, Gauteng, Limpopo, Limpopo* were the only two Northern Cape, North West exceptions. The same Given the above conclusions, and Western Cape, but correlation appeared in 1999, Gauteng appears to be a declined in the Eastern Cape, except for the North West* potential problem for the KZN and Mpumalanga. Its (and partly also KZN). In ANC: a decline in voter stronghold is the Western 1994 no such correlation participation, a loss in real Cape. existed. This tendency in votes for the ANC, and the 1999 and 2004 is exactly the second lowest percentage The UDM lost percentage opposite of what Markinor growth for the party. support in all the provinces predicted in February 2004. in comparison to its 1999 support levels. However, if

5 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 the effects of floor-crossing city, and of one of the voting actions have served to are taken into account, it stations in Mitchell’s Plain: defend the rule of law and appears to be slightly % % the majesty of democracy’. % Party Cape Mitchell’s different. As a result of Province Therefore only the FF+’s floor-crossing it lost 2.4% Town Plain case is still pending in the ANC 45.25 45.14 24.13 national support in DA 27.11 27.13 27.4 Court. Parliament, but partly IFP 0.14 0.21 0.2 recovered from the losses UDM 1.75 2.2 0 A matter of more serious ID 7.84 8.16 20.04 concern has been the with an increase of 1.28% in NNP 10.88 9.58 18.61 support since last year. Its ACDP 3.44 4.01 5.52 question of the IFP’s main base remains the FF+ 0.62 0.82 0 participation in the national Eastern Cape, where the At least four parties have and KZN provincial ANC recovered 5.5% of its significant support in the governments. Following the losses in 1999, and the UDM province, namely the ANC, tradition of 1999, President lost 4.3% between 1999 and DA, ID and NNP. The city Mbeki invited the IFP to fill 2004. of Cape Town, where 1.05 to deputy minister posts million of the province’s (offered to Musa Zondi and The Western Cape has 1.56 million votes were cast, Vincent Ngema). In view of experienced an ever- is an accurate reflection of Buthelezi’s exclusion from changing political landscape the whole province. Only the the cabinet, the IFP’s since 1994. Both in terms of DA maintained the same National Council decided to real number of votes and spread of support in refrain from filling the two percentage support, the Mitchell’s Plain. The ID and posts until the unfinished ANC, DA, ACDP and FF+ NNP are much stronger than negotiation for a KZN consistently increased their in the rest of the province, provincial coalition support since 1999, while the while the ANC lack in government had been NNP and UDM experienced support there. completed. As a result of the a decline. All the parties IFP’s stance, President experienced either a IFP/ANC Bargaining over Mbeki, on 7 May appointed consistent increase or decline the Post-election two other deputies: Ntopile in support since 1994: a Kganyago (UDM) for Public persistent increase for the Immediately after the Works and Gert Oosthuizen ANC, DA and ACDP; a election, the IFP referred its (ANC) for Sport and persistent decline for the objection regarding the Recreation. It means that the NNP, IFP, UDM and PAC. IEC’s procedural handling of new national government The FF+ appears to have its complaints to the consists of the ANC, Azapo, entered into a decline but Electoral Court in NNP and UDM. then turned it around in Bloemfontein. On the eve of President Mbeki’s In KZN, the election results 2004.The province appears produced the following seat to be well supported. It inauguration they withdrew the case ‘in the spirit of allocation: ANC 38, IFP 30, hosted the highest number of DA 7, ACDP 2, MF 2 and parties in the election and nation-building’. Its leader, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, UDM 1. A government voter support is distributed needs 41 seats for a majority. amongst a number of parties, justified it as follows: ‘It is my earnest hope that our A coalition government was though the province captured therefore unavoidable. After the lowest voter turnout. As announcement will have the positive effect of ensuring protracted negotiation during an illustration of the which the ANC diversity, the following table that future elections will proceed without similar contemplated also the option is presented of the province of forming a government as a whole, of Cape Town problems and acts of intimidation. We hope our with the UDM, MF and the

6 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

ACDP, it reached an parties in the election Issue- and interest-based agreement with the IFP that campaign, the following parties, such as the the latter will have three of emerges: Employment Movement of the ten MECs and the South Africa, KISS, position of Deputy Speaker The ANC used mainly two Economic Freedom in the provincial legislature. posters (‘Create jobs’ and Movement, Pro-Death Instead of the tradition of ‘Fight poverty’), which Penalty Party, Green Party, nominating their own appealed directly to the African Muslim Party or representatives in the Markinor’s number one the Christian parties (ACDP, provincial government, the issue. The DA used several UCDP and Christian IFP agreed that the new more posters, concentrating Democratic Party) did not ANC premier, S’bu Ndebele, on ‘South Africa deserves perform well in the election. would make the final better’ and ‘Unite the announcement himself. opposition’, ‘Convict corrupt Alternatively, voting politicians’ and ‘150 000 according to party identities Meaning of the Mandate policemen’. They highlight a might serve to better explain combination of corruption the results. The demise of the The final question in respect and crime as issues, and the NNP and the slight growth of the election concerns the political role of the DA as of the DA is not mainly due considerations guiding the opposition. The UDM also a particular stance on the voters in their choice of a emphasised a number of issues, but because the party or, alternatively, how social issues, mainly the majority of white voters do should the ANC’s mandate deterioration in the socio- not support close be understood? economic conditions of the cooperation with the ANC - poor, and corruption (‘Arrest instead, they prefer the DA’s The first possibility is that arms deal crooks’). The NNP strong stance on opposition. the voters were influenced did not address any social Patricia de Lille’s ID by the parties’ stance or issues. Its main concern was presents a party identity of policy proposals on focused on the re-election of criticism of bad governance particular issues. Markinor its leader Marthinus van but cooperation with conducted an opinion poll in Schalkwyk as Western Cape Government when it merits - 2004 on the most important premier and on convincing more or less the same applies issues or problems facing the the electorate (mainly to the UDM. Voters country. Their results minorities) of its cooperation therefore made a choice concluded that ninety with the ANC: ‘It’s your between support for percent of the respondents country too’, ‘You deserve a Government, for allies of considered unemployment fair share’, ‘NNP - Your key Government, for cooperation and job creation to be the to government’ and ‘’Let us and criticism, or for most important issue, be your voice’. Both the primarily critical opposition followed in a distant second ACDP and FF+ emphasised parties. Much later in future place by crime (64%), then ‘hope’ in the future. The the primary criterion of HIV/AIDS (48%), health message from the parties is choice will change to issue issues other than HIV/AIDS accordingly mixed. The or interest considerations. (22%), corruption and public ANC, UDM and DA sector dishonesty (21%), concentrated on issues; the education (16%) and DA and NNP highlighted landlessness (9%). their functional identities as parties. Should one compare it with the posters used by the

7 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

ANC Support Compared with Provincial Voter Turnout PROVINCE 2004 1999 1994

% voter ANC support voter turnout ANC voter ANC turnout support turnout support NATIONAL 76.73% 89.30% 86.86%

Eastern Cape 79.31(1) 5* 90.54(4) 5 90.50(2) 2

Mpumalanga 78.30(2) 2 90.57(3) 2 85.40(5) 4

Free State 77.76(3) 3 90.99(2) 3 84.50(8) 5

North West 75.55(4) 4 87.31(8) 4* 91.20(1) 3

Limpopo 74.80(5) 1* 91.55(1) 1 84.70(6) 1

Northern Cape 74.70(6) 6 88.87(6) 7 84.70(6) 7

Gauteng 74.23(7) 7 90.15(5) 6 87.20(4) 6

KZN 72.84(8) 8 87.45(7) 9 82.40(9) 9

Western Cape 71.27(9) 9 86.70(9) 8 89.40(3) 8

8 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

TEN YEARS OF party, still draws on some general. The ANC increased DEMOCRACY AND surviving Eastern Cape its majority and confirmed bantustan networks to keep it its legitimacy, and THE STATE OF alive. opposition parties were OPPOSITION facing challenges of growth, POLITICS IN The benefits of multi- credibility and legitimacy. A SOUTH AFRICA partyism were demonstrated part of the sharp decline in in the 2004 election period voter turnout could be Susan Booysen that was alive with ascribed to abstention University of Port Elizabeth contestation. Existing parties prevailing over a vote for the such as the DA conducted opposition. The advent of multi-party well-planned and democracy in South Africa strategically designed In a consistent trend over the also brought the campaigns. New budding three democratic elections, contradictory experience of contestant, the ID, threatened the total percentage space opposition parties struggling to upset some of the main occupied by opposition to assert, build and players. In its swansong, the political parties declined consolidate themselves. NNP found its calling to be further. In 1994, this total After three elections and a the ‘voice’ of minority voters opposition party space was decade of democracy, the -- within the ANC. Flash 37 percent, with the biggest opposition party results in parties, those that appear opposition party, the then the 2004 election revealed once-off or periodically in NP, on 20 percent. The trends of modest growth for the time of elections, dotted opposition space declined to the DA, significant decline the landscape and again 34 percent in 1999, this time for the IFP, and a band of disappeared, without with more fragmentation and parties in the cluttered near- representation and minus the DP, on 10 percent, death zone of around and deposits. emerging as the biggest below 2 percent support. opposition party. The trend This group included the new The ID was the only one continued. In 2004, the ID, which gained a tenuous amongst the five micro- opposition space comprised foothold. parties formed in the wake of a total of 30 percent. The DA the parliamentary floor- had consolidated its main In many respects, the 2004 crossings of 2003 that opposition party status, results signalled and end to survived into the second growing to 12 percent. All of the pre-democratic era. The decade of democracy. Both the other opposition parties collapse of the NNP and the the Peace and Justice had either shrunk, or grown conversion of the DP into the Congress and National by decimal points. DA meant that the white Action rallied, but missed party players of the pre- the one-seat parliamentary In manifesting its modest democratic era had virtually target. Western Cape voters levels of growth, the DA disappeared by 2004. The eliminated the New Labour (still the DP in 1999) had IFP, on a systematic Party. signalled its potential in the downward path, is the last of period of 2004 to 2014 to the bantustan parties still on When the dust of forge a two-party position the landscape. However, the campaigning and voting within the dominant party Northwest’s UCDP with its settled, however, some system. One of the DA’s Mangope association keeps sobering realisations lay in main achievements was that, some of the bantustan ghosts wait for South Africa’s compared with the DP’s alive. The UDM, although opposition political parties - 1999 base, it had grown by definitively a post-1994 and for opposition politics in 2.8 percent. This level of

9 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 growth was only rivalled by notched up 1,2 million votes their performances. These the ANC’s 3.3 percent. The (41,0%), thus down by 8,4%. parties included the Freedom DA/DP from 1994 to 2004 That time around, it had a Front+ and Azapo. The ID had also consistently grown mere 74 000 votes more than was lauded for its 1.7 percent in each of the nine provinces, the ANC in the province. national level performance. an achievement that the other The plunge continued in Yet it failed to match the parties could not rival. 2004 as IFP provincial first-time performance of 3.4 support declined by a further percent of the UDM in 1999. In continuation and 5%, pushing the IFP into By 2004, however, the UDM exacerbation of the trends second place after the ANC. had slipped back to 2.3 from 1994 to 1999, the NNP By now, it was trailing the percent, giving rise to and the IFP in varying ANC by close to 300,000 suggestions that it might be degrees were the opposition votes. On the national level, time for reconciliation with party casualties of the 2004 the IFP in 2004 had the ANC. election. The NNP approximately half the precipitously declined into a number of votes that it had A crucial aspect of state of virtual extinction. mustered a decade earlier. opposition party support in The once apartheid monolith 2004 was whether these and then disciple of The collapse of the NNP parties had succeeded in transformation plummeted meant that the ranks of the transcending the limits of from its 1994 status of home micro-opposition parties their traditional racial-class to one-fifth of the South were swelled. The NNP support bases. Some parties African voters, to became one of the many lost or gained support in representing a group of 1.7 below-2 percent opposition cross-class trends. Both the percent -- predominantly parties. These parties UDM and the IFP lost white, urban and under 40. function in a near-death significant chunks of their The NNP had thus lost 93.5 zone. Most of the time, they white support, thereby percent of its 1994 national are too small to handle the becoming more exclusively level support. In some combined burden of black-African. They also lost provinces, such as Gauteng, constituency work, black support, which went to its decline was even more organisational building, the ANC. The ID’s support ominous -- 97.4 percent. electoral contestation and came overwhelmingly from Much of the NNP’s decline parliamentary representation working- and some middle- was due to the mass effectively. class coloured voters, as well defection or abstention of as white voters trading the Western Cape working-class The NNP’s 2004 downfall DA for the ID. coloured voters. The naturally precipitated a chain defectors (in this order) reaction of further identity The reason for both the ID voted for the DA, ID and and leadership crises. From and the DA falling short of ANC. the Northern Cape came their pre-election support calls for the replacement of expectations was precisely Although far from extinct, leader Marthinus van that they failed to penetrate the IFP’s unrelenting slide in Schalkwyk; from the Free the black-African working- its KwaZulu-Natal heartland State there were calls for the class voting bloc. Evidence signalled the elimination of dissolution of the party. In suggests that the small gains the IFP as a major opposition contrast, several of the other that the DA made amongst party. In 1994, it was micro-opposition parties black voters were at the cost credited with 1,8 million merely sustained their earlier of the IFP and the UDM. votes - 50,5% of votes cast levels of voter support, and The black-African DA gains in KwaZulu-Natal. In 1999 it were relatively satisfied with were largely concentrated in

10 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 the rural areas of provinces deliver the province to the of the foreseeable future. of Mpumalanga, KwaZulu- ANC and gain yet another Although its gains were Natal and the Eastern Cape, stay of execution. KwaZulu- modest, and off a 1994 base and in all likelihood came Natal was the only other that was fundamentally from voters who had never province where the altered through its alliance been ANC supporters. opposition parties could with the NNP, the party was perform the role of the only one amongst the The opposition parties had kingmaker -- the Minority host of opposition hopefuls limited and minority-group Front and the UDM ensured that could claim consistent wide only gains. They the ANC of its provincial and across-the-board gains. extended their racial bases, majority. but only amongst the In the aftermath of the 2004 minority groups. The ANC In KwaZulu-Natal, the IFP- election, however, the debate registered fairly significant DA Coalition for Change will resume on who will be gains. It is estimated that the started coming unstuck in the the ‘opposition of the percentage of registered weeks preceding the election future’. Given the nature of white voters siding with the when rapprochement shortcomings and ANC increased quite between the ANC and IFP disappointments in South substantially. However, it suggested that the coalition African politics, the most was still largely white and might not be cast in stone. It discontented people in coloured voters, or enclaves became ineffectual when the society logically should be and legacies of former two parties jointly in the poorest. The DA worked bantustan politics, that KwaZulu-Natal could only on this logic in its 2004 provided the opposition muster 45 percent of the campaign, targeting poor parties with their 2004 vote. communities in urban and support. (See Table 1 below) rural areas both through Other opposition party voter segmentation and Opposition parties in South alliances and cooperative message. The campaign Africa build their strength in agreements, such as the illustrated that the voters the three sites of elections FF+’s agreement with the who had least gained from (and growth in voter IFP, the FF+ with the Cape ANC governance are not the support), alliances with ‘like- People’s Congress, the DA’s voters who were available minded’ parties, and floor- with the Green Party of for opposition recruitment, crossings (through the latter South Africa, and the PAC’s or, perhaps in particular, for two potentially leap-frogging with the Dikwankwetla an opposition party such as into expanded Party, had a negligible the DA. The ANC centre representational strength). In impact on the outcome of the thus held and this sealed the the run-up to Election 2004, election. 2004 fate of the opposition the opposition parties hoped parties. through a range of alliances These experiences of South either to gain provincial Africa’s opposition parties The right-of-centre power, or to hold the balance hold warnings of uphill opposition party space of power in some of the battles in the continuing remains a congested provinces. These ambitions struggle to become the ideological territory. The were largely frustrated. The definitive and credible near-extinct status of the NNP clung to 11 percent opposition party of opposition parties to the left support in the Western Cape democratic South Africa. By of the ANC still leaves the (compared with its fractional all 2004 indications, the DA ANC free to claim 1.7 percent national support), is set to further entrench ideological space where it thereby ensuring that it could itself as the opposition party rarely treads. A crucial

11 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 question for opposition party originating in civil society nature spreads its wings, the politics in the 2004 to 2009 organisations, social question will be whether it interregnum therefore is movements, perhaps linking will have the strength and whether the DA will up with a small new left momentum to catch up with consolidate its main opposition party, and and surpass the DA in opposition party status, or ultimately with segments of whichever manifestation it whether there might be the organised labour. When, might have concretised itself tangible genesis of a left eventually and probably not at that time. opposition party. The in the next five years, an possible trajectory could be: opposition party of this

Table 1: Trends of Growth and Decline in Ten Years of Opposition Party Politics in South Africa

Change 1994 to 1999 in Change 1999 to 2004 in RESULT 1994 RESULT 1999 RESULT 2004 level of voter support level of voter support PARTY Growth / decline in Growth / decline in % TOTAL number of voters: % TOTAL number of voters: % TOTAL 1994-1999 1999-2004 ANC 62.6 12.2m 13.1% down 1.6m down 66.4 10.6m 2.8% up 0.3m up 69.7 10.9m

DP/DA 1.7 0.3m 400% up 1.2m up 9.6 1.5m 27% up 0.4m up 12.4 1.9m IFP 10.5 2.1m 33.3% down 0.7m down 8.6 1.4m 21% down 0.3m down 7.0 1.1m

UDM - - - - 3.4 0.6m 33% down 0.2m down 2.3 0.4m ID ------1.7 0.3m NP/NNP 20.4 4.0m 73 % down 2.9m down 6.9 1.1m 73 % down 0.8m down 1.7 0.3m

ACDP 0.5 0.1m 100% up 0.1m up 1.4 0.2m 50% up 0.1m up 1.6 0.3m FF/ FF+ 2.2 0.4m 75% down 0.3m down 0.8 0.1m Same Same 0.9 0.1m UCDP - - - - 0.8 0.1m Same Same 0.8 0.1m PAC 1.3 0.2m 50% down 0.1m down 0.7 0.1m Same Same 0.7 0.1m

12 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

PROVINCIAL ROUNDUP

GAUTENG democratic governance was after an abrupt postponement increasingly being from the original date set for The Election institutionalised and a living 18 May. Botswana will testimony to this process of follow in October, and the and its institutionalisation and others namely Namibia Aftermath habituation of democratic (November) and culture and practice. Mozambique (December) Khabele Matlosa will follow in that order. Electoral Institute of Yet, the election was also Southern Africa extremely important for the The Provincial Election SADC region as a whole. and its Outcome The Significance of the There is no controversy Election around South Africa’s Having outlined in a fairly hegemony in the region and sketchy fashion, the political The South African election therefore, it’s overbearing significance of the just ended that took place between 12 influence. For this and other South African election both and 14 April 2004 was a related reasons, almost all of for the country and the political development of the SADC states look to SADC region, this article monumental proportion, both South Africa to learn from aims to review the election for the country and the their experience in process, results and highlight Southern African region. For democracy and development. its immediate aftermath in South Africa itself, the Thus, all eyes were on South the Gauteng Province. election was meant to Africans as they cast their solidify and institutionalise ballot and the region held its Gauteng Province is the its embryonic democracy. breath awaiting to see second biggest province in Thus, the election was an whether or not the region’s South Africa in terms of important political event hegemony could population size. Of the linked, as it was, to the institutionalise its democratic country’s population of country’s celebration of a governance. Others were about 45 million, Gauteng’s decade of democracy. It was rightly concerned about the population stands at 8.8 fitting, therefore, that the spectre of violence in some million (20% of the total) celebrations reached their parts of the country second only to that of apex on 27 April coinciding especially Kwazulu-Natal Kwazulu Natal at 9.4 million with the inauguration of which, if not well-managed, (21% of the total). It is thus President Thabo Mbeki. No could have torpedoed the no surprise therefore, that wonder, therefore, that when country’s celebrated political political party contest Mbeki was inaugurated on transition of 1994. Of all the centered mainly on this two that day, deep down he felt a SADC countries, the keenest provinces combined with deep sense of observers of the South fierce contest in the Western accomplishment for his African election were Cape. A total of about 4.7 party, the ANC, that had just Malawi, Botswana, Namibia million eligible voters won the election so and Mozambique for the registered to vote in the overwhelmingly. Mbeki as a obvious reason that these Province of which 2.4 statesman, however, also felt countries are themselves million were female voters an enormous degree of holding their own electionsin and 2.3 million male. The achievement pertaining to 2004. Malawi held its population of registered the extent to which up to that election on 20 May 2004 voters in the province point, the South African

13 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 amounted to about 22 control of the province, (42%) are women. Besides, percent of the total registered while the DA became the both the Speaker and Deputy voters and the highest in the official opposition in the Speaker are women. whole country followed by legislature. A trend that is Kwazulu-Natal at 18 percent. manifest in the election Prospects Of this registered population, outcome in the province, about 3.5 million voters cast which in some sense also As in other Provinces, the their ballot between 12 and reflects the national trend, is ANC victory in the Gauteng 14 April 2004. This the political decline of both gives the ruling party a amounted to about 74 the NNP and the IFP. While golden opportunity to percent of registered voters. the former did not manage to implement its programme By all indications, this was a secure a single seat in the aimed at building a social pretty impressive voter province, the latter secured contract for the creation of turnout amidst earlier only one single seat. Another jobs and eradication of scepticism linked to interesting development is poverty and related social ills projected levels of voter the emergence of the ID on for a better life for South apathy especially among the the political scene and the Africans. In light of the young voters. Only a paltry new kid on the block election outcome in the 44 000 votes were spoilt managed to secure a single province, the ANC will have suggesting a successful voter seat in the legislature. to tread gingerly and with education and information caution. It will have to bring programme by the IEC and Following the election, opposition parties into its other election stakeholders in Mbhazima Shilowa was implementation strategies the Province. reappointed the Premier for even if they remain the main Gauteng, and in his critics of government policy. All in all, eighteen (18) inaugural speech, Shilowa Thus politics of political parties contested echoed the ANC’s national accommodation rather than elections in the Province and strategy and commitment to politics of confrontation of these eight (8) were able “meet the challenges of would serve the ruling party to secure parliamentary unemployment and poverty, and the province well in this seats. The table below homelessness and provision regard. indicates that the ruling of water and sanitation , HIV African National Congress and AIDS and other Besides managing political (ANC) won a landslide diseases, nation building diversity in the legislature, victory that had already been community safety, the Provincial government predicted by various opinion improving public education, will also have to implement surveys prior to the election. and eradication of all forms its social contract in close of discrimination” . Shilowa cooperation and partnership Party Votes % Seats is serving his last term in with a wide array of non- Votes UDM 33 644 0.99 1 office and is the only governmental stakeholders. VF-Plus 45 648 1.34 1 Premier who retained his Obviously the key ACDP 55 991 1.64 1 post, while the other eight stakeholders in these ANC 2 331 68.40 51 (8) Provincial Premiers are processes would include the 121 DA 708 20.78 15 all new appointees. As with ANC’s allies, namely the 081 the national legislature, one Congress for South African ID 51 921 1.52 1 other fascinating aspect of Trade Unions (COSATU) IFP 85 500 2.51 2 PAC 29 076 0.85 1 the new Gauteng Legislature and the South African is the extent to which gender Communist Party (SACP). Thus, it came to pass that the balance has been advanced. The alliance will have to be ANC would retain political Of the total of 73 MPs, 31 nurtured and consolidated

14 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 further through policies that Further more, the provincial formations. This will be strike a balance addressing government will have to be imperative in order to interests and fears of these responsive to the interests translate the social contract stakeholders. and fears of the civil society into a living and live organisations in their various experience for the people. northwest

NORTH WEST West province but stricter organisational capacity THINGS STAYING THE registration requirements throughout the country. On SAME, JUST MORE SO after that election reduced voting day this capacity was the total number of eligible strongly manifest by the Michael O’Donovan voters. In both 1999 and extent to which the ANC Independent Political 2004 about 1.3 million votes was able to provide public Consultant were cast in the province. transport for voters - even for the highly dispersed rural Compounding the rational population of the North West Although rational behaviouralists' enigma was province. The election day behaviouralists have made a that turnout among dynamics emphasised that no substantial contribution to registered voters was higher other political party is able to our collective understanding in those provinces where come anywhere close to the of political behaviour they voting made less difference ANC in terms of have difficulty in coming to i.e. where the ruling party organisational capacity and terms with a key question was most assured of victory. the ability to mobilise voters. regarding voting. Why do Conversely, in the areas in people bother to vote at all? which the opposition parties In 1994 the ANC captured The chances of any had a greater presence the 1.3 million of the 1.6 million individual affecting the turnout among registered votes cast on the national list outcome of an election in a voters tended to be lower. (83%) in the North West significant way, is so remote This trend can only be partly province. They were that a “rational” person is explained by the opposition followed by the new official basically wasting their time parties preoccupation with opposition, the NP with 160 by voting. This “futility” of competing with each other 479 votes and the DP with 5 voting is exacerbated in rather than against the ANC. 826 votes. In 1999 the those elections (like those in The turnout rates do however political landscape changed the North West province) reflect the ANC's unrivalled with the party that formerly where the outcome of the ability to mobilise those ruled the Bophuthatswana election can be taken for sympathetic to it. bantustan, the UCDP, re- granted. entering the competition. In Parties such as the DA and that year the ANC won 1 030 Since 1994 all the elections NNP the ANC , in the run up 901 of the 1 305 441 votes in that province have been so to the election, tended to cast (78.9%). It was followed dominated by the ANC that eschew the mass media in by the UCDP who, with 124 there was no doubt that the favour of personal contact 874 votes (9.6%) displaced incumbent party would win between supporters and the NNP as the official an overwhelming majority of potential voters. The ANC opposition. That election the votes cast. Despite this, called on cadres to mobilise aptly portrayed the decline of voters turned out in numbers support in their the NNP. The DP emerged equal to that of the 1999 neighbourhoods. Its ability to as the third largest party election. In 1994, 1.6 million do this so effectively reflects 42 593 votes (3.3%) votes were cast in the North on its immense

15 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 followed by the NNP with about the party, the decline the interim a declining rate only 29 931 votes (2.3%). of the NNP was unfortunate of participation is evident. In the North West province in that it had been, despite its Extrapolation of the 2001 (as in other provinces) one of political heritage, the most census to reflect the 2004 the more dramatic features of racially diverse political voting age population the 2004 election was the party. Its decline indicates indicates that only 57 percent implosion of the NNP. that voters are possibly of voting age citizens voted. Following the dissolution of becoming increasingly When compared to the its alliance with the racially polarised along earlier elections, the drop in Democratic Party, the NNP political party lines and voting rate suggests that a reorientated its objectives in perhaps by the level of degree of disengagement is, the run up to the 2004 participation in elections. as expected, taking place. election. It now sought an This indicates that the ANC, alliance with the ANC and The big losers in the election despite winning 81 percent presented itself to opposition were in those parties most of all votes, was elected by a supporters as their key to heavily associated with the minority of the eligible representation in apartheid state. The NNP electorate. Although this government. This alliance losses were paralleled does compares favourably between the NNP and the somewhat by those of the with turnout in established ANC was to bring the NNP former bantustan rulers - the democracies, the declining into government while UCDP. Mangope's party lost participation rate may yet assuring the ANC it would 30% of the support it had in become a cause for concern. govern all nine provinces. 1999 and received only In the established Unfortunately the approximately 86 000 votes. democracies the electorate is realignment of the NNP Minor gains in the number of called upon to vote for alienated the bulk of its votes were made by the representatives far more remaining supporters who, if UDM, PAC, the ACDP and frequently than in South they voted at all, defected to the Independent Democrats. Africa. For example, in other parties. NNP voters However none of these Ireland, voters elect local, deserted the party for parties gathered enough county and national alternatives from the left (the support to win seats on the representatives as well as ANC) to the right (FF+) of provincial legislature. The delegates to the European the political spectrum. In the final seating in the provincial Parliament. Elsewhere voters North West Province, the 5 Parliament was have to elect candidates for 687 votes secured by the consequently: ANC 27 of the governor, senate, parliament NNP was less than one fifth 33 available seats, UCDP 3, etc. All told there have only of their 1999 total (or one DA 2, FF+ 1. been five opportunities in thirtieth of their 1994 total). which all adult South Despite the very low profiles In the North West province, Africans have been given the of the ACDP, UDM and ID a total of 1 353 963 people opportunity to vote and voter in the province the came out voted i.e. 77 percent of the 1 fatigue should be less of a of the election with fewer 749 529 registered voters. factor here. Turnout should votes (in order) than the This represents a one thus be commensurately ANC, UCDP, DA, FF+, percentage point gain over higher. ACDP, UDM, PAC, and the the total number of votes ID. Most humbling was that cast in the 1999 election. The overall reduction in there were five times as However, given that the turnout will inevitably vary many spoilt votes than there population of the province between groups. Identifying were votes for the NNP. had increased by which groups are Whatever one’s opinion approximately 10 percent in disengaging will speak

16 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 volumes as to the health of than their “defection” to the indicate that the second the democracy. Although ANC, their abstention may person on the list, Pitso Tolo figures are not yet available be explained by their having is also no longer available from the IEC, observers do no chance of making an for appointment. Molewa has indicate that youth impact on the political consequently had difficulty participation was, not landscape. However this line in appointing her cabinet and unexpectedly, very low. It is of thinking does not explain she will be the last of the also not yet clear to what why ANC voters, assured of nine premiers to extent the IEC has managed their parties dominance, announcement a cabinet. The to reverse the under- turned out in increasing extent of the difficulty (and representation of the rural numbers – leaving analysts the depth of competition poor. Earlier studies had with the rational behaviour within the ANC) is indicated indicated that the rural poor dilemma. Unfortunately, if by agreement on a coalition voted at significantly lower the established trend still government in KwaZulu- rates than the rest of the underpins voter behaviour, Natal being reached before population. The IEC had the next national election in the North West province subsequently sought to 2009 may herald an even could settle on its address this imbalance greater ANC majority. appointments. through the redistribution of resources to those areas. The ANC's clean sweep of the provinces enhanced President Mbeki's latitude in The opposition parties have appointing premiers. This he been most prejudiced by the used to, inter alia, increase declining participation rates. the representation of women Between 1999 and 2004 the in high political office. His ANC increased it number of choice for premier in the votes by five percent. The North West was the woman total number of votes cast for highest on the ANC's opposition parties declined provincial list of candidates by 13 percent in the same – Agriculture MEC Edith period. Among the Molewa. While her opposition parties the minor appointment seems to have gains made by the DA, struck a cord with those UDM, PAC and the ACDP concerned with the were insufficient to offset the representation of women, it losses experienced by the went down less well with her NNP and UCDP. All-in-all fellow MECs. Reports the election was marked by indicate that at least five of the increasing adeptness of her former colleagues are no the IEC in running elections, longer available for declining conflict and provincial office. While increasing disappointment some of the redirection was for those looking for a strong anticipated that of Darkey opposition in national and Africa was not. Africa had provincial parliaments. been considered one of the more popular candidates for If the results point to the position and he headed declining turnout among the ANC's provincial list of opposition supporters rather candidates. Reports also

17 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

Kwazulu-natal

KZN Election where ANC members had other options it was Aftermath demonstrated outside the considering such as home of Lionel Mtshali negotiations with minority “The Sulkers and the burning coffins which parties, negotiations with the Gloaters” represented the IFP and the ANC for a shared

attacking of an IFP government or simply Shauna Mottiar councillor in Wembezi occupying the opposition Independent Political 1 Township. The IFP claim benches. Two days before Analyst that over 50 complaints had the Electoral Court was to

been raised with the IEC but hear the IFP’s complaints The post election period in that the IEC had overlooked however, the party withdrew KwaZulu-Natal has been them. This included 42 its legal challenge claiming eventful. With the African provincial and 4 national that all it had wanted to National Congress’s complaints including prove was that the IEC had (ANC’s) victory in the intimidation, assault, failed to act on the province, its first step was to 4 malicious damage to complaints before it. This appoint S’bu Ndebele and property and voters being fuelled comment that the IFP not Jacob Zuma as provincial prevented from casting their was not serious about Premier. The Inkatha ballots. The IFP also claimed allegations of election Freedom Party (IFP) began that the ANC bussed voters irregularities in the province its new term as official in from other provinces to but was merely opposition in the province by 2 skew the results. strengthening its position at lodging a challenge to the the negotiating table. election results with the The ANC was unconcerned Electoral Court. The by the IFP’s claims. ANC Indeed the IFP in the light of Electoral Court has spokesman Mtholephi its loss of KwaZulu-Natal to jurisdiction to hear Mthinkhulu said that his the ANC as well as its complaints about any party was not surprised by deteriorated relationship with contravention of the the IFP’s decision to contest the ANC of late, has much to Electoral Code of Conduct the election as it had negotiate at both a national provided that the objection indicated before the election and provincial level if it has been raised with the that it would dispute the wants to remain a player on Independent Electoral results if it lost to the ANC the South African political Commission (IEC). The 3 in KwaZulu-Natal. Analysts field. At national level, the IFP’s complaints centre on have suggested that the IFP’s announcement of Thabo the fact that the IEC had legal challenge is a desperate Mbeki’s new cabinet declared the elections free attempt by the party to retain confirmed that Mangosuthu and fair without control of the province or is Buthelezi would no longer investigating alleged election being used as a bargaining hold a cabinet position. irregularities. These included chip to strengthen the IFP’s Furthermore, no IFP the IFP’s claim that some hand and extract concessions members were deployed as 300 000 voters had cast their from the ANC. The IFP ministers but two IFP ballots in voting districts argued that the court members were appointed as where they were not challenge was separate from deputy ministers. Musa registered on the voters roll. Zondi was named Deputy The IFP also complained Minister of Public Works about the levels of political 1 Mercury April 19 2004 intolerance citing incidents 2 Mercury April 21 2004 3 Daily News April 20 2004 4 Mercury April 28 2004

18 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 and Vincent Ngema Deputy withdrawal probably comes claimed that they were Minister of Sport and as a result of pressure from Ndebele’s personal choice Recreation. This amounts to IFP hardliners such as Lionel and that the IFP had not been the scaling down of IFP Mtshali, Blessed Gwala, consulted as to which representation from the 1999 Prince Zulu, Albert candidates it would like to cabinet where there were 3 Mncwango and Velaphi put forward or which IFP ministers and 2 IFP Ndlovu. Zondi and Ngema portfolios it would like to deputies. More damaging is are known to be moderates hold. The IFP complained the fact that Buthelezi, once within the party. Reports that once again provincial Minister of Home Affairs, is from a senior ANC official candidates were announced now confined to the are that Mbeki has been while the ANC and IFP were opposition benches while angered by the withdrawal of still in negotiation. Ndebele two of his junior colleagues Zondi and Ngema. The reacted to the resignations by are deputy ministers. official said “nobody is saying that “people have Analysts claim that the ANC allowed to bargain for voted and they now expect is sending a clear message cabinet positions. Even ANC delivery. We cannot be that the age of the coalition officials don’t do that. The involved in endless government is over and that IFP can serve in the cabinet negotiations. The IFP must the ANC is no longer under only at the invitation of the make up its mind- it either any obligation to make President. The sense we are wants to be part of the appointments in response to getting from the President is government or like the DA the threat of conflict or that the IFP is no longer an part of the opposition.”8 violence. Some analysts issue he is going to move on argue in favour of the IFP’s without them.” Mbeki With or without IFP support, new place on opposition confirmed this by stating at Ndebele has mapped out his benches pointing out that the swearing in ceremony priority areas for the coalitions in cabinet dilute that he would replace Zondi province. Of utmost opposition voices. 5 This and Ngema with “those who importance to his cabinet notwithstanding, party are willing to take the oath will be social upliftment of policies are often better and willing to work.”6 the poor and vulnerable served when the party in which will be combated with question has some measure The IFP’s consideration of job creation, poverty of political power. whether to be part of an eradication and economic ANC led government or part rejuvenation. HIV AIDS, In this case of coalition of the opposition continues safety and security, between the ANC and IFP, at provincial level. eradicating corruption and the IFP is clearly unhappy KwaZulu-Natal’s new creating a credible social with the measure of power it premier Ndebele appointed 2 service system also feature can expect to enjoy with 2 IFP members to his on the ANC-led provincial deputy minister portfolios. provincial cabinet. Inkosi agenda. For this reason Zondi and Nyanga Mgubane for Social Ngema declined the Welfare and Population appointments claiming that Development and Rev they wanted to wait for the Celani Mtetwa for Public outcome of the coalition Works.7 Both Ngubane and government discussions Mtetwa however resigned between the ANC and the their positions as the IFP IFP in KwaZulu-Natal. Their

6 Sunday Times May 2 2004 5 Witness April 29 2004 7 Sunday Tribune April 25 2004 8 Mercury April 26 2004

19 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

The end of the best election yet in KZN, it related registration KZN as we know was the IFP’s worst. Election irregularities take on a 2004 was the only poll sharper significance. it: the rise of which did not return the IFP the ANC in 2004 as the largest party in KZN, The ANC registration drives

confirming a downward and campaigning in Durban Dr Laurence Piper, trend in party support which is one half of its success University of KwaZulu- sees it at 55% of its 1994 story. The other is its Natal, Pietermaritzburg level. This noted, the IFP’s provincial wide winning of campus losses in 2004, while support from the IFP. This

substantial, are not as was particularly notable in There are two main aspects dramatic as the ANC’s gains. the southern areas of the to the election 2004 results Thus while the party lost province such as Harding, in KZN. The first concerns 8.42% in provincial support Umzumbe, Izongolweni, the rise of the ANC, the between 1994 and 1999, it Underberg, Creighton, Port demise of the IFP, and the lost 5.08% between 2004 Shepstone, in the north in the relationship between the two. and 1999. I suspect the cities of Richards Bay and The second concerns the reason for this is that while Newcastle, and the northern moderate failure of the DA most of the IFP losses were coastal areas of Mtubatuba and the consolidation of the to the ANC, not all of the and Emanqasi. MF and ACDP. I will ANC gains come from the examine each set of IFP. Let me explore this in outcomes in turn (see table at more detail. In comparison, ANC gains in end of article). the major cities were not as A close look at the 2004 significant, and were lowest The ANC & IFP election results reveals a in the historic IFP correspondence between strongholds of Nkandla, The ANC was the only party ANC gains and IFP losses in Nongoma, Unlundi and to significantly improve its most places. The notable Msinga. Notably though, standing in KZN in election exception here is Durban there were still gains. 2004. Not only did the party where the IFP actually win the most votes on the improved its support slightly All this points to the provincial ballot (47%), but from 1999 (5 703) but the significance of firstly access it was the only party of any ANC improved its support for the ANC to rural areas, size which won more votes by a dramatic 79 974 votes. and secondly, campaigning. in 2004 (120 000) than in This latter figure amounts to Hence there is a rough 1999. This is a remarkable 65% of the ANC’s gains in correlation between the feat given than the 2004 poll 2004 over 1999! growth of ANC support and was 15% lower than in 1999. the length of time the party The reason for the ANC’s has had access to rural areas Indeed, had the polls been improvement in Durban is of KZN. In 1994, the ANC the same then the ANC directly linked to its vigorous had some support down would have won 600 000 registration campaign which south, in 1999 it more votes on the provincial saw the city up its registered consolidated this and in 2004 ballot than in 1999! In voters by over 140 000 from is now the largest party south percentage terms in 2004 the the 2000 local government of the Tukela river. The IFP ANC improved on 1999 by elections. Indeed Durban conversely is strongest in the 7.6%, outstripping its 7.15% accounted for over 44% of north, in rough proportion to improvement from 1994 to new voters. In this context, distance from Ulundi, the 1999. If this was the ANC IFP complaints about ANC party heartland.

20 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

The DA, MF and ACDP Change had lost support Where tactical voting was from many voters who did different in 2004 was with For the smaller parties in not want Ulundi to remain the MF. First, over 70% of KZN, election 2004 brought the capital, the likely MF voters supported the slightly disappointing outcome were the Coalition party on both ballots in 2004, results. The DA did much to win the election. However whereas in 1999 only 50% worse than it hoped and this claim overlooks two did. This reflects a greater expected. Thus, on the facts. First, the IFP secured allegiance to the party at provincial ballot the party 45 556 more votes on the national level, perhaps secured 8.35%, just 0.2% provincial ballot than the reflecting Rajbansi’s greater more in 2004 than the DP in national one, revealing that national role. Second, a 1999, and 3.09% less than many voters supported it in significant proportion of MF the DP & NNP combined in KZN and another party provincial voters, I would 1999. Indeed, the DA fared nationally. (Further the ANC guesstimate about 20%, worse on the provincial received 23 200 fewer votes endorsed the ANC on the ballot in KZN than on any in KZN than national!). national ballot, reflecting other provincial ballots. Second, the DA was an even alliance politics in KZN. greater loser on the There are two reasons that provincial ballot in 1999 (46 These results reflect a immediately suggest 959, and 66 989 when consolidation of Rajbansi’s themselves. First, was the including the NNP) than in support base, and I think lower turnout by opposition 2004, suggesting that fewer similar conclusions can be voters, more especially in people voted tactically in drawn about the ACDP in historically-Indian areas. 2004. All this means that the KZN following solid returns. When added to low capital issue could not have Where the MF maintained its registration levels and the in- been significant – at least at two seats in the KZN group focused politics of a province wide level. legislature the ACDP gained Rajbansi, this suggests a a second. Notably these are community which feels When unpacked at municipal both parties with very politically marginal to the level, these results suggest specific constituencies with mainstream. Mostly that roughly 30 000 people both distinct identities and, however, it reflects tactical voted for the IFP in KZN perhaps more importantly, voting in KZN which cost and the DA nationally, and institutional bases. For the the DA on the provincial 10 000 voted for the IFP in MF we are talking about ballot. KZN and ANC nationally. local social, economic and These figures are almost political networks in Thus on the national ballot exactly the same as the 1999 Chatsworth, for the ACDP, the party secured 10% while ones, suggesting the we are talking about on the provincial ballot it Coalition made little or no churches. secured 8.35%, some 47 559 difference to overall strategic fewer votes, the equivalent voting. The one exception to Indeed, in many ways the of 2 seats in the provincial this was in Pietermaritzburg IFP fits this same profile, legislature. Some9 have and surrounding especially since losing power suggested this was due to the municipalities where the in KZN. It is a party rooted capital issue, meaning that ANC did better at the in a constituency with a the DA-IFP Coalition for expense of the DA. specific identity and However, the number of vote institutional basis. Now that involved was a few the IFP is out of government, 9 See Xolisa Vapi, ‘Ulundi Issue thousand. it seems that opposition Cost IFP Dearly’, Sunday Times, parties in KZN can survive 18 April 2004.

21 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 as ‘bonding’ movements the election. Under the its future rages. To my mind, rooted in particular influence of those either choice is a losing constituencies, but not as disaffected with the ANC, scenario if the party still ‘bridging’ movements which the party looked to launch a harbours hopes of winning look to catch all. The ANC legal challenge to the result KZN or ever becoming a has this latter politics on the grounds of alleged force on the national stage. covered. irregularities, only to As argued in Election withdraw the case under the Update 1 the IFP is losing Acceptance of the Result influence of those looking to core supporters to the ANC rapprochement with the while failing to attract new The result of election 2004 ANC and a role in KZN and voters from other opposition threw the IFP into significant national government. parties. In many ways it is crisis, a situation from which However, rapprochement now a classic South African it is still trying to disentangle with the ANC was also opposition party, able to itself. At root the problem, stymied by objections to oppose the powerful and all- which has the party divided leaders taking cabinet inclusive ANC only through in two, is whether to look to positions nationally and a ‘binding’ politics linked to the future in some kind of provincially. a community with a distinct relationship with the ANC, social and institutional or in opposition politics, At the time of going to press identity. How long the IFP perhaps in some kind of the party had both dropped will be able to maintain a relationship with the DA. its formal objections to the grip on this community is a These uncertainties help election and withdrawn from moot point. explain the parties somewhat participation in national inconsistent behaviour after government as debate over

Party Votes Percentage Seats 1994 1999 2004 1994 1999 2004 1994 1999 2004 ACDP 24 690 53 745 48892 0.49 0.67 1.78 1 1 2 ANC 1 181 118 1 167 094 1 287 823 32.23 39.38 46.98 26 32 38 DP/DA 78910 241 779 228 857 2.15 8.16 8.35 2 7 7 IFP 1 844 070 1 241 522 1 009 267 50.32 41.9 36.82 41 34 30 MF 48 951 86 770 71 540 1.34 2.93 2.61 1 2 2 NNP 410 710 97 077 14 218 11.21 3.28 0.52 9 3 0 PAC 26 601 7 654 5 118 0.73 0.26 0.19 1 0 0 UDM - 34 586 20 546 - 1.17 0.75 - 1 1 Total seats 81 80 80 Total valid votes 3 664 324 2 963 358 2 741 265 Spoilt ballots 39 369 46 141 41 300 Total ballots 3 703 693 3 009 499 2 782 565 Registered voters 4 585 091 3 443 978 3 763 406 Percentage poll 80.78 87.38 72.84 Quota for a seat 44 687 36 585 34 782

22 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 free state

WHAT IT IS ALL 2004) updated on 23 April surroundings). As far as ABOUT? 2004 the final tally for votes opposition parties were LOOKING AT THE for the Free State read as concerned, the results AFTERMATH OF THE follows: showed that the PAC had its Results Party % biggest support in the ELECTION IN THE (Votes) FREE STATE IN TERMS ACDP 13 119 1.3 Eastern Free State, with the OF ELECTION ANC 827 338 81.78 DA and the ID receiving AZAPO 3 571 0.35 RESULTS, DA 85 714 8.47 support from voters in the ACCEPTANCE OF THE DPSA 9 806 .97 Metsimaholo and Kopanong ELECTION AND PARTY ID 5 289 0.52 areas. The DA also showed REPRESENTATION IFP 3 563 0.35 NA 1 224 0.12 considerable support in the NNP 8 295 0.82 municipalities of Mattjabeng Angelique Harsant and PAC 11 969 1.18 UCDP 7 825 0.77 (Welkom) and Ngwathe Willem Ellis UDM 8 947 0.88 (Parys). The ACDP and the University of the Free State VF+ 24 946 2.47 Total valid votes FF+ shared their highest 1 011 606 100 brought out support in the municipal Introduction Total number of 15 795 areas of Mangaung, spoilt votes Percentage poll 77.76 Letsemeng (Koffiefontein After a long and drawn out Total votes cast 1 027 401 and surroundings) and Total number of run-up to the 2004 general 49 526 special votes Tokologo (Boshoff and election, it is finally over. surroundings). IEC officials are getting a As predicted, the ANC full night’s sleep again, and garnered the lion’s share of Coetzee11 reported that the politicians can rest their support in the province with results showed that the ANC throats from overwork on the more than 80% of the votes had lost approximately 6% campaign trail. New MP’s cast. According to of its support in the province and MPL’s have been Pretorius,10 this was the case (54 000 votes) and that the elected and there have been in 17 of the 20 Free State DA had gained 47% (28 000 celebrations in many municipalities, except for votes) on its previous quarters, with seats gained Kopanong (Trompsburg and showing, with the FF+ also on national and provincial surroundings), Mangaung gaining about 8% support legislatures. In other (Bloemfontein and (2000 votes). quarters, ex-MP’s and surroundings and MPL’s are facing the Metsimaholo (Sasolburg and Commentators had various prospect of job-hunting as surroundings). The results of opinions regarding the result their parties stumbled at the the election also showed that of the elections. Zingel and polls. This picture is playing 12 the ANC’s biggest support Pienaar were of the opinion out all over the country and came from the towns in the that the DA will show not least in the Free State, Eastern Free State district marginal growth in coming where things are already municipality (Thabo years as the economic heating up with by-elections Mafutsanyana) and middle class grows and and the unexpected choice of municipalities in the North smaller parties fall by the premier for the province. Western Free State such as wayside – the good record of

Nala (Bothaville and DA councillors on local Election Results surroundings) and government level also Tswelopele (Hoopstad and In terms of the last available figures from the IEC (IEC, 11 2004, 2 10 2004a: 7 12 in Pretorius, 2004b: 7

23 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 counted in their favour. They reasons the decision has not 1980’s. This mother of three further stated that many been welcomed in all sectors was sworn in as Premier of people still voted for the and some of the ANC the Free State on the 26 ANC based on historical braches are threatening to April 2004 by Judge identity and that the ANC’s boycott the 2005 municipal President J.P. Malherbe in support will grow if it can elections mainly because the the Fourth Raadsaal of the show real delivery in the ANC’s number one Free State Provincial next five years. Support for candidate Ace Magashule Legislature. At her inaugural the ID was largely based on was sidelined. Mr Magashule ceremony, the former MEC the personal appeal of its has urged all sectors to of Social Development, leader, Patricia de Lille, support the Presidents Premier Marshoff, said that while the demise of the NNP decision and the Premier. she has personally was largely due to its The opposition parties in the experienced the suffering of incoherent political Free State have pledged their the people of the Free State movements of the last five support to the Premier but due to poverty. She has years. Its move into the fold have urged her not to let the dedicated herself to of the ANC had not been North-South factions improving the lives of the well communicated to its interfere with development poor and has identified the rank and file members. The and poverty alleviation in the Free State districts of Thabo ACDP showed however, that province. 14 Mofutsanyana (Eastern Free it was possible to unite State) and Xhariep (Southern voters across the colour line Francis Beatrice Henney was Free State) as developmental to build considerable support born on the 17 September stumbling blocks in the fight for itself in the province.13 1957 in Bloemfontein. As a against poverty. The key child Beatrice Marshoff issues which will receive The New Political attended the Dr. Blok School attention, as mentioned in Leadership in Heidedal, a Bloemfontein her inaugural speech, suburb inhabited mainly by includes AIDS, poverty and President Thabo Mbeki sent coloured residents, and later crime15 shockwaves through the Free worked as at the Pelenomi State Province with his hospital in the same suburb. There have been a number of announcement of Beatrice Mr Izak Coetzee, principal changes made to the Marshoff as premier. There of Dr Blok High School in leadership of the province are many speculations Heidedal, stated that the after the 2004 elections. surrounding the reasons for Heidedal community was There have been shifts in the the President’s decision to proud of the former nurse, opposition parties’ appoint Marshoff which the MEC of Social representation. The New include the alleviation of Development and now National Party (NNP) has poverty, the neutralising of Premier. She matriculated lost both seats in the factions in the Free State from this school in 1975 legislature, the Democratic ANC, ensuring equity among with a first rate exemption. Alliance (DA) gained a seat, ANC premiers and/or a The Henney family is well the Freedom Front Plus message to the coloured known in the Free State and (FF+) retained the seat and community. She was her nephew, Clarence the African Christian originally placed 37th on the Henney, was the first Democratic Party (ACDP) is ANC candidates list and later coloured member of the the new kid on the block moved to 22nd place on the executive committee in the list. Whatever the President’s 15 Coetzee, 2004: 2; Pretorius, 2004:1; Preotrius, 2004:4; and 14 Pretorius, 2004: p2 and Coetzee, Mokoale, 2004:1 13 Ibid 2004:p 2.

24 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 managing to get one seat in ANC members of the postponed because some of the legislature. Provincial Legislature the members apparently The changes in the seats of include the following: could not be reached and the legislature are as follows: Judge President Malherbe ANC new members: was not available on Friday % of No. of ANC old members to swear in the MEC’s which No. of Votes Party Votes Seats reinstated: include: 2004 1999 2004 1999 2004 1999 Ace Magashule Ace Magashule (Agriculture) ANC 827338 881 381 81.78 80.79 25 25 Beatrice Marshoff Joel Mafareka (Sports, Arts, DP 85714 58 163 8.47 5,33 3 2 FF 24946 22 996 2.47 2,11 1 1 Gertrude Mothupi Culture, Science and Technology) NNP 8295 56 740 0.82 5,2 0 2 Sakhiwe Belot Tate Makgoe (Safety and Security) ACDP 13119 9827 1.3 0.90 1 0 Suzan Mnumzana Sakhiwe Belot (Health) (IEC, 2004) Annah Buthelezi Ouma Tsopo (Education) Charlotte Lobe Benny Kotsane (Local The legislature consists of Joel Mafareka Government and Housing) the following members: Peter Khoarai Seiso Mohai (Public Works, Roads Tate Makgoe and Transport) DA: Benny Molakoane Playfair Morula (Finances) Andries Botha Casca Mokitlane Dr. Benny Malakoane (Tourism, Peter Frewen Peter Maloka Economic and Environmental Basil Alexander Mxolisi Dukwana Affairs) German Ramathebane Pat Dlungwana (Social Adv. Pieter Geldenhuys, Tony Marais Development) former DA-leader and Tjheta Mofokeng member of the provincial Benny Kotsoane Two key portfolios were Mrs Thoko Mofokeng legislature has retired and Mr Seiso Mohai given to women. Ouma Darryl Worth, who has Mr Playfair Morul Tsopo (Education) has occupied the other seat in the Mantoa Thoabala served in the Free State legislature since 1999, will Hnas Nketu Legislature since 1994. Her now serve as a member of Zanele Dlungwana previously held portfolios the National Council of include local government It is out of this list that a Provinces. The Free State’s and housing, welfare, arts premier, a speaker, a deputy two DA members to the and culture and health. Pat speaker and ten Members of National Assembly are Dlungwana (Social the Executive Committee Sandra Botha and Roy Development), a librarian must be chosen. Mr Mxolisi Jankielsohn. from Qwaqwa has been a Dukwana was unanimously member of the Free State re-elected as speaker of the FF+: Legislature since 1999. Free State Legislature and The FF+ retained its only Tsopo, Kotsane and Belot Gertude Mothupi replaces seat in the legislature and Mr are the only remaining Mr Innus Aukamp (NNP) as Abrie Oosthuizen was MEC’s of the previous term Deputy Speaker. The reinstated as FF+-leader and (Pretorius, 2004: p1). legislature also consists of member of the provincial two disabled members, i.e. legislature. ANC members of the Zanele Dlungwana and National Assembly: Thoko Mofokeng. The ACDP: Neo Masithela premier announced her team The ACDP is a newly Butana Khmpela of MEC’s on the 3 May 2004 John Modisenyana elected opposition party to after much speculation over Abram Salamuddi the legislature. Mr Casper the delay of this Godfrey Mosala Nordier is the leader of the Abram Radebe announcement. On Friday, party and now also fills the Aaron Mnguni 30 May 2004, the one seat in the legislature. Sefora Ntombela announcement was Pauline Khunai

25 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

Maureen Madumise Pretoruis, L. 2004. Heidedal trots Ruth Magau op nuwe premier. Volksblad. 24 Magdeline Sotyu April: p4 Pretorius, L. 2004. Beter lewe wag Members of the NCOP: op armes. Volksblad. 27 April, p.1. Tutu Ralane Pretorius, L. 2004. Marshoff se Tsietsi Setona span vol nuwe gesigte. Volksblad. Neels van Rooyen 4 May: p1. Sisi Mabe Mokoale, C. 2004. Former nurse takes on Free State tomorrow. With many asking “who has Daily Sun. 23 April: p1. been selected from the North and who from the South” indicates that the North- South faction differences have not been totally resolved. The people of the Free State, however, do respect the President’s decision and premier Marshoff has the support of the people in the Free State in the fight for development and poverty alleviation in the province.

References

Coetzee, G. 2004. ANC-stemme 6% minder as in 1999. Volksblad. 20 April, p. 2. Coetzee, G. 2004. Sy is oorgehaal vir taak sê premier. Volksblad. 27 April, p. 2. Coetzee, G. and Pretorius, L. 2004. Marshoff se aanstelling lei tot wye bespiegeling. Volksblad. 23 April: p2. Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). 2004. National & Provincial Elections 2004. http://www.elections.org.za/Electi ons2004_Static.asp?radResult=50 &selProvince=2 Pretorius, L. 2004a. Party se steun in VS meer as 80%. Volksblad. 17 April, p.7. Pretorius, L. 2004b. ‘ANC sal bly groei as geen ander party bykom”: Toets is of hy sy beloftes kan nakom , sê kenner. Volksblad. 17 April, p.7. Pretorius, L. 2004. DA, ACDP reageer oor VS- premier.Volksblad. 23 April: p2

26 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

Western cape

THE 2004 bring in sufficient votes? The African National ELECTION Question marks surrounded Congress was once again RESULTS the Premiership as Rasool, victorious in the Western What changes in the Skwatsha and Van Cape. Although the increase Western Cape? Schalkwyk had their eye on in support was not that huge, the prize position. All these 45%, compared to 42% in Dr. Cheryl Hendricks questions have been 1999, this was sufficient for Centre for Conflict Resolution answered. The focus of this it to govern in alliance with article is to assess the more the NNP. All the pre-election On April 14 2004, South micro trends in party support polls had indicated that the Africa held its national and and the implications of the NNP was on the decline. provincial elections. The results for future politics in This election showed how people spoke loud and clear the Western Cape. dramatic the decline has that they wanted the ANC to been, from 28% in 1999 to rule in all the provinces. Table 1:Provincial Election 11% in 2004, and this in the Thabo Mbeki was sworn in Results: Western Cape heartland of its support base. as President on Freedom Registered Population: Conservative and previously Day, the Premiers and 2220283 staunch NP areas all shifted National and Provincial Party Results % their vote to the DA. The DA Ministers have taken up their United Christian 3575 0.23 Dem. Party more than doubled its portfolios, and the work of Inkatha Freedom 2222 0.14 support from 11% to 27%. the government for the next Party Freedom Front Plus 9705 0.62 The ID, too, for a party five years is already in United Democratic 27489 1.75 formed less than a year ago, motion. As politicians return Movement African National 709052 45.25 surprised everyone, to the routine business of Congress obtaining 8% of the votes. their profession, political Pan African 6524 0.42 Congress pundits continue with post- Azanian People’s 1455 0.09 If one breaks down the votes mortem exercises on the Organisation by municipality and voting African Christian 53934 3.44 elections. During the Dem. Party districts, some interesting elections, all eyes were on New National Party 170469 10.88 trends emerge. The ANC the Western Cape. There was African Muslim 11019 0.7 Party support in the Cape little doubt that the ANC Green Party of SA 3317 0.21 Metropole remains largely would get the majority of Cape Peoples 1960 0.13 Congress confined to African support, as it did in the Democratic Alliance 424832 27.11 townships or to districts in previous election. It was the Moderate 953 0.06 Independent Party which demographics have margin of that majority that Nationale Aksie 2248 0.14 changed such that there is was the subject of Universal Party 735 0.05 now a majority of Africans Peace and Dev. 789 0.05 speculation and crucial. For, Party in the voting district. in 1999, despite receiving Independent 122867 7.84 Contrary to popular belief, in Democrats the majority of support, the Peace and Justice 3278 0.21 Coloured townships like ANC did not gain control of Congress Mannenberg and Mitchells the provincial legislature as New Labour Party 10526 0.67 Total Valid Votes 1566949 100 Plain, its support actually the DP and NNP formed an Spoilt Votes 15554 decreased. The ANC’s alliance. Would it be able to Percentage Poll 71.27 strongest support is in the Total Votes Cast 158250 secure an absolute majority 3 rural/peri-urban areas of the this time? Would the NNP, No. of special votes 26967 Western Cape, for example, Source: Independent Electoral Commission with whom it formed an web site www.elections.org.za date in Robertson, Cederburg, alliance for this election, accessed 4/17/2004. Riversdale and Plettenberg

27 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

Bay where it secured more Stellenbosch, George and far more potential than Leon than 50% of the votes. These Worcester municipalities and for she has liberation are predominantly Coloured in areas like Brakenfell, credentials and can therefore areas where poverty is rife. Mitchells Plain, and Athlone appeal across the racial The explanation for this, I it secured more votes than divide. It is doubtful that the believe to be twofold: first, the NNP. It was only in the DA will be able to make the perceived threats in the Paarl municipality that the inroads into African areas metropole of having to NNP received more support and this it would have to do unfairly compete with than the DA, 20% compared if it hopes to be able to Africans are largely not to 18%. The NNP’s secure the province. applicable in these areas constituency thought it However, if the ID fails to where the forms of untrustworthy and consolidate and expand its employment are unskilled contemptuous. It made a u- support base, the DA will and seasonal; second, is the turn on its long held policy attract the vote that was distinction, which has yet to of “keep the ANC out,” and given to the ID in this receive serious attention, it hardly bothered to seek election and can therefore between the material and approval for this change in increase its numbers but not emotional well-being policy from its constituency. sufficient to rule, at least not ushered in by ten years of The NNP appears to have in the next decade. Support democracy. New labour laws reached the end of its for the DA was largely and an emphasis on human political career. It has been acquired on the belief that rights have conferred dignity thrown a life-line by the South Africa needs a strong and respect to workers in ANC, but this will not last opposition. The one-party rural areas – where the long. Many of its candidates state spectre looms large in severity of apartheid was will jump ship in the next the imagination of minority more acutely felt. This, local elections or floor groups and has been played coupled with the little crossing session. up by the DA. Tony Leon, material gain, in the form of unlike Marthinus Van access to RDP housing, Two questions become Schalkwyk, is seen as having water and electricity, has had relevant here: has the DA the necessary persona to an effect on the population reached its ceiling and how present a vociferous and we are seeing a should we read the huge oppositional challenge to the corresponding shift in voting increase in support for the ANC. patterns. On the whole, DA? Vincent Maphai increase in ANC support in asserted (SABC 2, There is a debate in South the Western Cape can be 15/4/2004) that the DA has Africa as to whether voting attributed to the lessening of reached its ceiling. I think it patterns are interests or fears that accompanied the is a statement that needs to identity based. These are not transition, changed be qualified for a lot depends mutually exclusive demographics and to on the future performance of categories. In the Western effective “meet the people” the ID. De Lille and Leon Cape Africans and “peoples contract” are competing for the same predominantly vote for the campaigning. constituencies. If the ID is ANC and it is both an not wracked by the same interest and an identity based The DA has made definite kind of fissures as befell the vote. Africans have a long inroads into both Coloured UDM, they will eclipse the history of association with and White Afrikaner DA. Already we can see that this party and it is the only constituencies that were in white and middle class party that speaks to their previously dominated by the Coloured areas the ID has needs and simultaneously NNP. For example, in the made an impact. De Lille has has the potential to deliver

28 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 on those promises. rivalry between the Coloureds and Whites voted Africanist faction headed by en bloc for the NNP in the Mcebesi Skwatsha and the past, with the DA non-racialism faction headed maintaining the white liberal by Rasool, that was vote. These votes are now highlighted by the media in being spread between the the run up to the submission ANC, DA and the ID. In the of party lists, has largely case of Coloureds, there is a been silenced. Skwatsha has clear class divide and a rural- been given the portfolio of urban split in voting patterns. public works and Lynne What is also clear is that they Browne that of finance. do not vote for parties These are key positions for representing Coloureds per delivery focused on creating se, for example, the Cape employment through the Peoples Congress or the New public works programme in Labour Party. Nor does the Western Cape. Ebrahim religion determine voting Rasool has indicated that patterns for parties focusing under his premiership, the on this issue, for example, factionalism in the Western African Christian Cape and the identity based Democratic Party or African issues will be resolved. In his Muslim Party, did not draw words “Coloureds will be significant support either. allowed to just be” and should no longer feel like the The election results “sausage in the boerewors produced the following Cape roll.” Hopefully, we will see Provincial Parliament: an end to the racialisation that has defined this province Party 1999 Floor 2004 crossing and its politics. ANC 18 22 19 ACDP 1 2 2 DA 5 7 12 ID 3 NNP 17 10 5 UDM 1 1 1

From this we can note that the ANC’s hold on the province is a tenuous one. It therefore has to ensure that its alliance with the NNP remains intact and that it delivers during the next five years. Van Schalkwyk was well rewarded for sacrificing his party when he received a Deputy Ministerial position at National Cabinet and, at the provincial level, two NNP candidates were included in the cabinet. The

29 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

Eastern cape

Election polled 7.34 percent of the UDM in 1999, when it lost Results vote and has 5 seats, 10 percent. Outcome, Trends and followed by the PAC at one Future Prospects percent and one seat. Against the background of a lower national turnout (from Dr Thabisi Hoeane The rest of the parties 89 in 1994 percent to 76 in Rhodes University performed as follows: 2004) and the high figure of ACDP (0.78), seven million eligible voters ID (0.78) that did not register, the Introduction NNP (0.63), party falls far short of its FF Plus (0.26), 1994 support levels. Taken This article discusses the FP (0.2), with its attainment of the results in the Eastern Cape Azapo (0.17), two-thirds majority focusing on the outcome and Sopa (0.15), nationally, the significance developments. It does so UCDP (0.12) of the ANC performance in through an interpretation and NA (0.07). the province is notable for its analysis of the performance declined support. This is in of political parties that In terms of turnout, the direct contrast to the often- contested the provincial Eastern Cape had the highest overstated fears by election. First, it reviews the turnout at 79.31 percent, opposition parties of the results. It then engages the three percent over the ANCs dominance. performance of political national average of 76.73 parties, starting with the percent. The spoiled ballots Significantly, analysis of majority party the ANC, in the province were 28 360 provincial electoral figures before changing focus to the translating into 1.25 percent, indicate that the difference official party the UDM and lower than the national between the number of ends by discussing the minor average of 1.6 percent. voters who voted for the parties. party in 1994 and 2004 is As in most areas of the 687 603, a 30 percent decline Review of Results country, the election result in real terms, just four was accepted by all parties percent lower than the 34 per Thirteen political parties as having been free and fair. cent loss in 1999. contested the provincial poll. Very few and minor As predicted by pollsters, objections were raised by However, the party still analysts and the media, the political parties over the maintains high levels of ANC won the provincial process. support provincially. The contest, registering 79.27 implications for the party at percent of the vote, ten The ANC the national level where it percent above the national The ANC continued its has achieved a two-thirds average of 69.68 percent, dominance of electoral majority for the first time, is having 51 seats in the politics in the Eastern Cape, thus not a new development provincial legislature. The although at 79.27 percent, in the province. The party UDM maintained its official the party has not managed to has had more than a two- opposition status, registering reach the 84.35 it won in thirds majority provincially 9.23 percent of the vote and 1994. However, the party did since 1994. 6 seats. The other parties make some strides in terms represented in the provincial of recouping some of the Therefore, in terms of legislature are the DA, which support it had lost to the national implications for the

30 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 party that it will come under the floor crossing legislation Transkei stronghold of increased pressure to deliver in 2003 that nearly Umtata, where it lost power on its electoral promises in annihilated the party. In to the ANC. Much of the the next five years due to its 2004, it won 9.23 percent, electoral contest between increased majority, this does although it fell short of the these two parties was fought not appear to be a glaring 14 percent it won in 1999. largely in that area, with the imperative in the Eastern Even then, considering the ANC still being dominant in Cape. serious loss of MPs other parts of the province. nationally in 2003, the party Its success in the provincial has indicated some resilience In terms of implications for ballot can largely be ascribed managing to retain its status the future, there does not to its delivery credentials as the official opposition. appear to be much that the since 1994 especially UDM can do to increase its between 1999 and 2004. This seriously puts into influence on provincial Contrary to popular images question the tacit view policy in the next five years, of non-delivery by the ANC, pervasive in South African given that it has declined in in poor provinces such as the opposition politics that the strength from 1999. Eastern Cape, the ANC dominance is expansionary budget of the unchallengeable and thus The Other Parties government, especially in the parties just have to position The DA occupies position past three years has clearly themselves as strong three in the provincial benefited voters. opposition. legislature. However, in

The UDM’s decline has been longitudinal terms - in direct In addition, the national ascribed to the party’s reflection of national trends - government’s decisive inability to develop distinct the party has been steadily intervention to deal with and clear policies to that of increasing its support, issues that were hampering the ANC, especially in terms although marginally: in 1994 delivery such as corruption of economic policy. The two it only managed 2 percent of played a large part in parties differ in terms of the vote, increasing this to convincing the electorate, as detail in implementation of 6.29 in 1999 and 7.34 in well as the planned change economic policy – not the 2004.Thus, considering its in policy towards HIV AIDS fundamentals. stature at the national level in terms of rolling out (12.37), percent the DA’s services with regard to the The popularity of the party power in the province is pandemic. in 1999 was due to its strong negligible and is challenge to the ANC on overshadowed by the The UDM emotive issues around contests between the ANC A notable feature about governance and corruption. and UDM. Eastern Cape politics is that However, the ANCs major it is the only province where focus on these issues in Conversely, the PAC in the ANCs dominance since between 1999 and 2004, reflection of its national 1994, has come under undercut the UDM’s main status has shown a steady challenge. The UDM, in its election platform. Similarly, decline in the Eastern Cape. first electoral contest in the the UDM’s reliance on these In 1994 it gained 2 percent 1999 election, managed to issues, especially HIV AIDs of the poll, decreased to 1.14 cut down the ANCs were watered down by the in 1999 and managed one dominance by around ten ANCs policy changes. percent in 2004. percent. However, the UDMs support declined in The party’s serious decline Thus, the party’s difficulty in the interim, largely due to was registered in the former maintaining its national

31 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 status as a major former declined to 3.2 and in 2004 it liberation movement is had but all disappeared from reflected in the province. provincial politics registering This is particularly so given 0.78 percent of the poll and that this is one of its having no representation in strongholds. Since 1994, the the provincial legislature. party has only managed to have consistent There is very little to representation provincially in mention about the remaining the Eastern Cape. Much of parties six parties as they all the blame for its poor share less than one percent showing is internal of the poll. leadership battles, with the provincial branch noted for Conclusion its opposition to the current leadership - a factor The results generally reflect underlined by the what is happening on the observation that in the national level. The ANCs election period its leader Dr dominance continues. Pheko, did not make an Although the party was appearance in the province. shaken somewhat in 1999, it has managed to regain some The ACDP has shown its of its lost power. resilience as one of the successful post 1994 parties. The UDM has maintained its In 1994 it managed 0.51, in official opposition status at a 1999, 0.96 and in 2004 0.78 reduced majority, whilst the percent. DA is steadily increasing its support. The other parties are The surprise party in the minor players and are just 2004 election has been surviving whilst the NNP has hailed as the newly formed been seriously decimated. ID headed by Patricia De Lille. However, in the The interesting feature of Eastern Cape the party has provincial politics will be to not made any impact with its see how the ANC performs 0.78 percent showing, failing considering its increased to have any representation in mandate and whether the provincial legislature. opposition parties will be able to survive. This is The NNP’s slow death especially so with regard to nationally is emphasised in the latter given that there are its performance in the significant numbers of voters Eastern Cape since 1994. In that did not register for the the first election it registered election but can still be 9.83 percent, becoming the drawn into the process in official opposition to the 2009. ANC. In 1999, it was displaced by the UDM and defeated by the DP when it

32 Election update 2004 south africa number 8

Northern cape

The Review of Political parties represented has a two-thirds majority. the 2004 in the Northern Cape The NNP’s hope that there provincial legislature in the might be a need of a National and past three national and coalition government in the Provincial provincial elections are Northern Cape were not Elections indicated in the table above. completely misplaced The Case of the because in the 1994 election Northern Cape The opposition in the the combined support of the province is becoming more opposition was almost equal Kenny Hlela and more fragmented to the ANC support. In fact, Centre for Policy Studies compared to the first the number of seats the ANC democratic election of 1994, had in the legislature was The Northern Cape has when there was a strong equal to that of the recently joined the club of NNP (which was then known opposition parties. The NNP two-thirds majority as the National Party), which had 12, FF+ 2, and the DA provinces, when the ANC had managed to get 40,48 had one seat. managed to win 68,83 percent of the provincial vote percent of the provincial and 12 seats in the This scenario had led to the vote. The ANC support in legislature. It seems there speculation that should there the province has been was then a hope amongst its be a province out of the steadily growing since the supporters that it could get seven controlled by the ANC first democratic election in its hands onto power and where it could be unsettled, 1994. Other than the ANC, when they realised that this it had to be in the Northern these are the other political was not the case, it started to Cape. The NNP was the parties that managed to get lose support. The biggest main threat to the ANC’s into the provincial beneficiaries of the NNP support base, shed votes in legislature: DA, NNP, ID, weaknesses in 1999, was the the 1999 election and the UCDP, and the VF+. There ANC. But in this years ANC won 64,32 percent of are only six political parties election a number of political the votes; gaining almost 15 that managed to get into the parties made inroads into its percent of the votes, while provincial legislature out of support base, with the DA the NNP lost more than 15 12 political parties that and the ID becoming the percent. The relatively good contested the elections in the major beneficiaries. performance of the ANC in province. While only four the past decade has seen the parties managed to get into The DA has also taken over opposition parties losing the legislature in the 1994 from the NNP as the official hope of unseating the ANC. and 1999 national and opposition in the province. Even the steadily growing provincial elections. The NNP had appeared DA conceded that its main resigned to forming a concern in the province was coalition government with to be the main opposition, a Votes Seats Party the ANC in the province but position they were able to 1994 1999 2004 1994 1999 2004 the good performance by the obtain. ACDP - - 5 995 1 incumbent meant that the ANC 200 839 210 837 219 365 15 20 21 ANC would hardly need the The provincial legislature DA 7 567 15 632 35 297 1 1 3 NNP to rule the province. also welcomed a new player ID - - 22 485 - 2 The Northern Cape has since in the form of the NNP 163 452 79 214 23 970 12 8 2 VF+ 24 117 5 446 4 948 2 1 1 joined the club of those Independent Democrats. provinces where the ANC This party had come about as

33 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 a result of the introduction of that the ANC had done its influenced to some extent by the floor-crossing legislation homework and deserved the the availability of resources and Patricia de Lille its votes it received. and most political parties leader defected from the might prefer to consolidate PAC to form this party. This The polls had predicted that their position before they can province was one of the few the FF+ would lose its only embark on any ambitious where this party received seat in the province, but it campaign. These factors significant support. It gained managed to retain almost the however, might lead to two seats in the legislature same number of votes it political parties failing to surpassing two established received in 1999, revealing notice fraud when it takes parties in the form of the that its core supporters have place outside their traditional ACDP and the Freedom not decided to abandon it. support areas. Front, which each obtained The increase of political one seat. Her former political parties in the legislature Post Election Review party did not get even a gives the indication that the President Thabo Mbeki had single seat in this province, Northern Cape vote is very no problem appointing as was the case in the fluid. Most political parties Dipuo Peters as the new previous elections. One appear to have been satisfied Premier of the Northern striking thing about these with the results and what Cape. This was after John political parties is that they had achieved and even Block; the former MEC for improved fortunes in the the NNP defied the opinion Transport, Roads and Public province appear to have been poll predictions that it was Works had resigned from his achieved at the expense of likely to get less than two position and all official the NNP. The NNP has seen percent of the provincial positions within the ANC its representation in the votes. It is still the third after allegations of provincial legislature largest party in the province corruption, to which he later reduced from twelve seats in with 7, 52 percent of the admitted. There were 1994 to two seats in this votes. elements within the ANC year’s elections. that believed that John Block The fact that the electoral had been unfairly treated but Acceptance of the Results process is relatively this does not seem to have transparent in South Africa impacted on the fortunes of None of the political parties makes it difficult for those the ANC in the election, as it that contested the Northern parties that do not win to consolidated its position. It Cape raised any objections to challenge results but it also should be remembered that the election results. There make it difficult for the Dipuo Peters is from the were complaints that were ruling party to manipulate it. Kimberly region, which is lodged with the IEC in the The other factor that the strongest, and the largest province, but these were not minimises possible dispute is ANC region in the province, serious. The IEC believes that most of our political while John Block comes that the Party Liaison parties send party agents in from Upington, the second Committees played huge role their strongholds and do not strongest ANC region. After in this respect, as all disputes normally bother to go to the demise of John Block it were dealt with by these those areas where they are was no surprise when Dipuo structures. Even the NNP, historically weaker. This was Peters was appointed as the that has seen its fortunes also evident during the provincial premier, as she dwindle, has not attributed campaign process, where was widely tipped and has a its misfortune to electoral most parties put lamppost support from the ANC Youth fraud. There seemed to be a posters in their traditional League and other party consensus in the province strongholds. This might be structures in the province.

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It appears that the opposition allegiances. This was also References parties were overwhelmed proved in the current Business Day, 13/04/2004 by the ANC’s performance elections but most parties The IEC Election Results, in the province in terms of seem not prepared to spend a http://www.elections.org.za/Electi service delivery.The lot of resources in a province ons2004_Static.asp?radResult=50 opposition appeared resigned where votes are few and this &selProvince=6 to occupying the opposition appears to have worked to SABC News, http://www.sabcnews.com/features benches in the provincial the ANC’s favour. It appears /elections_2004/provnorthcape.ht legislature. This is despite to have consolidated its ml the fact that the Northern support. Cape voters appear to be prepared to change their

Mpumalanga

MPUMALANGA: power in the provincial As the table above shows, OVERALL ELECTION government. only three of the twelve RESULTS political parties that Parties represented in the contested the election legislature performed well enough to Thabo Rapoo gain seats and therefore Centre for Policy Studies Party Results % Seat s ANC 959 436 86.3 27 representation in the 30- DA 77 119 6.94 2 member provincial A total of twelve political FF+ 13 732 1.24 1 CDP 12 065 1.09 0 legislature. parties contested the UDM 11 161 1.0 0 Mpumalanga provincial IFP 10 643 0.96 0 All the political parties elections this year. With a PAC 7 668 0.69 0 NNP 5 122 0.46 0 generally accepted the registered population of ID 3 406 0.31 0 election results. However, 1442 472 and a 78.30% voter AZAPO 2 113 0.19 0 UCDP 1 878 0.17 0 six political parties in the turn out, this was a fairly SOPA 1 424 0.13 0 province lodged complaints good response and an with the Electoral Court enthusiastic participation in The opposition component against some IEC officials in the electoral process by the of the current provincial the Msukaligwa voters in Mpumalanga. The legislature has also shrunk Municipality, in Ermelo. The election results show that the and at the same appears to DA, IFP, PAC, ACDP and ANC gained 86.3% of the have consolidated around the SOPA had claimed that the votes cast – a 1.47% increase DA. The party also increased Electoral Code was violated on the 84.83% that the party its electoral support by when several presiding obtained in the 1999 246%, from 4.48% in 1999 officers allegedly allowed elections. Also, the 2004 (when it was still called DP) some voters to cast their election results show that the to 6.94% in 2004. This votes twice as well as by ANC has consolidated its performance gained the party allowing people to vote position by increasing its one extra seat and it outside their districts without membership of the currently holds two seats in completing the required provincial legislature from the legislature. forms. It is not clear though 26 to 27. In other words, the whether or not these party currently holds a 90% The NNP and the UDM lost complaints have been share of the provincial each of their sole seats in the formally dealt with by the legislature membership, legislature. The FF+ retained Electoral Court. Nonetheless, which strengthens its grip on its sole seat in the legislature. the complaints do not appear

35 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 to amount to full-scale the provision of basic predominantly white evidence that warrants services such as water, opposition parties in the questioning the legitimacy sanitation and basic health province, while the ANC and fairness of the overall care services extended to benefited from the loss of poll in the province. them. Many voters in the support by the UDM – province see the ANC, as an another predominantly black Possible Implications For incumbent, as capable of African political party. This Politics, Governance And meeting their expectations. is the result of a clear racial Conduct In The alignment and polarisation Legislature On the other hand, the among voters in the increase in the electoral province. The Mpumalanga election support for the DA could be results confirmed most of the interpreted in more than one The implications of this predictions that analysts way. Firstly, it could suggest apparent racial voting pattern made – that the ANC would that the DA’s confrontational among the voters in the be returned to power in the stance in raising the issues of province, and the seeming province, that the NNP corruption and the poor racial polarisation in the would collapse and that the quality of governance in the provincial legislature’s DA would become the province received membership, for politics in biggest opposition party in endorsement from a general and for opposition the province. However, the significant section of the versus ruling party tactics results seem to send mixed electorate in the province. In inside the legislature are messages. On the one hand, other words, by raising these worth exploring briefly. In the slight increase in the issues, the party may have terms of implications for ANC’s support could tapped into a well of politics in general, the suggest that the issue of concerns about the issue of appearance of racial administrative corruption governance in the province, alignment between political and the generally poor that the ANC would be well representation and quality of governance and advised to take into account. composition of party political leadership in the Secondly, the DA’s slight membership inside the province were not major increase in its support base Mpumalanga legislature concerns for many voters could merely be a could inject a racial hue to and therefore did not damage consolidation of the racial the politics of governance in the party’s electoral polarisation that appears to the province. This might prospects to the extent hoped have crystallised in obstruct healthy political by opposition parties. Some Mpumalanga over the last interaction between the of the political parties, such few years. For instance, the ruling party and the as the DA, had attempted to composition of the current opposition in the province, raise corruption and poor Mpumalanga provincial with an added danger that political leadership in the legislature shows that it will the legislature’s overseeing province as election issues have a predominantly white function over the against the ANC. This may opposition component made government might be also suggest that uppermost up of the DA and the reduced in its significance. in the voters’ list of priorities Freedom Front Plus, while were bread and butter issues the ruling party (ANC) is a In terms of implications for rather than the quality of predominantly black African opposition versus ruling governance. Many voters in political party. It appears that party tactics inside the this predominantly rural the DA has picked up the legislature, significant province with high levels of collapsing support of the changes are set to follow. In poverty are concerned to see NNP – one of the the previous term of the

36 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 legislature, the racial element against the ANC in the Of course the ANC has of political conduct in the legislature, remained a lone, another tactical option. It legislature was muted to a even if very vocal role could give the chair of this large extent in that the player, inside the provincial committee to the sole opposition component was legislature. This, however, member of the Freedom not entirely made up of did not necessarily reduce its Front Plus. The Freedom predominantly white effectiveness as an Front Plus has traditionally political parties. For opposition party. not been as aggressive in its instance, one of the stance towards the ANC as opposition parties (UDM) in This time around, the failure the DA has been over the the legislature was a black of the NNP and UDM to years. Giving this position to political party. In addition, gain seats in the provincial it may serve to drive a wedge the ANC had given the legislature guarantees that between the two UDM the chairmanship of the DA will assume the predominantly white the all-important Standing mantle of official opposition opposition parties, thus Committee on Public in the legislature. With its buying a certain level of Accounts (SCOPA). This representation increased to sympathy from the FF+ in committee is traditionally two members, it is expected the legislature. This move chaired by a senior member that that DA will adopt its may serve to neutralise the of the opposition but the traditional vocal and expected increased potency move served to ensure that aggressive stance in its of opposition versus ruling UDM was, to some extent, tactics against the ANC. party confrontations and less confrontational in its Also, it is virtually certain therefore the racial politics interaction with the ruling that the DA will not be given of the legislature However, party than was the DA. the chairmanship of the this may turn the Standing Also, in spite of its image as Standing Committee on Committee on Public one of the predominantly Public Accounts. There are Accounts into a potent tool white political parties in the no strict regulations because in the previous province, the NNP was in an governing the political committees, Joe Nkunah of alliance with the ANC not affiliations of committee the UDM, was seen as more only at national level, but chairs. Therefore, there is a conciliatory to the ruling also at provincial level. This possibility that the ANC- party than the member of the worked out in favour of the dominated legislature will Freedom Front Plus. ANC in that three out of the decide to keep the position to four opposition parties in the itself rather than give it to a References: provincial legislature ganged member of one of the two Pretoria News, 23/04/2003 up to outvote the DA as the opposition parties in the Independent Online, 22/04/2004 official opposition party current legislature. If this News24.com, 11/05/2004 based on its largest share of turns out to be the case, then SABC News Online, 26/04/2004 voter support after the 1999 this is guaranteed to lead to SABC News Online, 22/04/2004 election, and installed the higher levels of tension and SABC News Online, 22/04/2004 SABC News Online, 20/04/2004 ANC’s alliance partner adversarial relations between SABC News Online, 03/05/2003 (NNP) as the official the ruling party and the opposition in the province. opposition component of the Other information obtained from: The results of all these legislature. It is not clear The African National Congress tactical moves ensured that what the effects of this (ANC) The Independent Electoral the DA, which has would be on the much more Commission (IEC) traditionally adopted a very pronounced racial element of aggressive and the membership of the confrontational stance current legislature.

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PREVIOUS ISSUES The Launch of the Parties’ Posters … 15 CONTENTS Manifesto and Election KZN Campaigns 9 Voting with their Feet: 17 No. I, 2 February 2004 Configuration of Party Political Transparency in Party Funding Contest in the Forthcoming & the Use of the Media 20 Editorial 1 Election 12 Free State The Context: 2 Provincial Roundup Media as an Empowering National Perspectives Gauteng Tool 22 Voter Registration 8 Youth Participation in the 2004 Media Flourishes But Will South African Broadcasting General Elections: A Bash with a Everybody Be Heard? 24 Corporation Difference 17 Western Cape Breaks the Rules and ICASA North West Media, Use of State Resources Turns a Blind Eye 10 Same Old, Same Old? 19 and Party Financing 28 Gauteng KZN Eastern Cape Election Management: The Bread and Circuses: Early Media & Political Party Preparedness of the IEC 12 Electioneering in KZN 21 Campaign 30 Snooze, You Lose: Voter Campaigning in KwaZulu- Northern Cape Education in Gauteng 14 Natal 23 It is Better Late than Never in the North West Province Free State Northern Cape 33 Apathy to be the Big Winner in Party Candidates: Nominations Mpumalanga the North West Province 16 and Campaign Processes 28 Mpumalanga on the Eve of KwaZulu-Natal Better Late than Never: Formal Election A Growing Commitment to Submission of Cndidate’s Lists Campaigning 36 Democracy in KwaZulu- in the Previous Issue Contents 40 Natal 18 Free State 30 The End of KwaZulu-Natal as Western Cape No. 4, 19 March 2004 We Know It? Western Cape: A Vote for Election Preparations in the Tradition, Personalities or Editorial 1 Context of a Possible ANC Issues 33 National Perspectives Victory 20 Eastern Cape Political Violence & Free State Preliminary Campaign Trends Intimidation 2 Electoral Perspectives on Free and Likely Election Managing conflict: preparing for State Province 24 Outcomes36 the 2004 elections 6 Operation Registration: An Mpumalanga Election and Conflict 9 Assessment of Voter Registration Mpumulanga Province: Political Violence and in the Free State 26 Electioneering Headstart Intimidation, and the Role of the Western Cape for the Ruling Party 39 Security Forces 12 Looking Back and Stepping Chronology 43 Provincial Roundup Forward in the Western Previous Issue Contents 44 Gauteng Cape 28 Registration of voters Eastern Cape No. 3, 1 March 2004 in Gauteng 19 Eastern Cape: Reflections, North West Province Projections on the Eastern Editorial 1 The Landless have their Say 20 Cape 32 National Perspectives KZN Mpumalanga Parties not People: 2 Politics by Other Means 22 The Election Arena: Public Funding of Political Focus on Political Violence 24 Mpumalanga Province in the Parties 4 Free State Spotlight More Analysis of the Political Violence & Manifestos 7 Intimidation, the Role of the No. 2, 16 February 2004 Provincial Roundups Security Forces 27 Gauteng Election 2004: Free, Fair and Editorial Student Electoral Participation: without Intimdiation? 30 National Perspectives A Wits Survey 10 Western Cape Nomination Processes of Parties Levelling the Playing Fields: The Political Violence and on Candidates Lists 2 Electoral Code of Conduct for Intimidation in the Western A Case Study: The African Party Campaigns 13 Cape, Where? 34 National Congress NorthWest Eastern Cape Nomination Process 7 Locals and Lists,

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Political Violence & Northern Cape Election Campaigning and Intimidation: An Asssessment of Its All Systems Go in the Conflict Management – The Risks 36 Northern Cape 37 Northern Cape Northern Cape Mpumalanga 29 No Complacency in the Northern Mpumalanga’s Electoral Mpumalanga Cape: 40 Preparedness 40 Election Campaining and Mpumalanga Previous Issue Contents 43 Conflict Management in Mpumalnga Province: Chronology 3 44 Mpumalanga 32 Uneasiness behind the Calm 43 Previous Issue Contents Chronology No. 2 47 No 6, 12 April 2004 35 Previous Issue Contents 48 Chronology 4 Editorial 1 36 No. 5, 30 March 2004 National Perspectives Campaign 2004 2 No. 7, 26 April 2004 Editorial 1 Debates and Viewponts National Perspectives Management of Election-Related Editorial 1 The IEC’s State of Conflict: A Case Study of South National Perspectives Preparedness 2 Africa 5 Election Phase 2004 2 The Unwilling Voters and the Provincial Roundup The 2004 Election and Democratic 2004 Elections in Gauteng Governance in South Africa 7 South Africa 7 Political Violence and Interim Statement by the EISA Debates and Viewpoints Intimidation: Role of Security Election Observation Mission 12 Ten Years of Democracy and the Forces in Gauteng 9 Provincial Roundup Dominant Party System in South North West Gauteng Africa 8 Winning the Attention of the Gauteng goes to the Polls 16 Provincial Roundup Media 11 NorthWest Gauteng Limpopo Review of the Voting Process in The Preparedness of the IEC for Limpopo Gears up for the the North West 18 the 2004 General Elections 13 Limpopo Election 15 KwaZulu-Natal Fair Play in Limpopo 19 NorthWest Province Waiting for the Bargaining: the KZN North West, Ready Oddness of Party Campaigning Still Waters run Deep 21 or Not? 20 in KZN 15 IFP Loses KZN 23 KZN Campaigning in KwaZulu- Free State Election Readiness in KZN Natal 18 Elections at Last! 26 A competent and Wise Head Free State Election Phase – 2004 29 Atop an Average Count Down: Election Western Cape Body 21 Campaigning and Conflict Conducting Credible Elections 32 Free State Management 20 Northern Cape Election Readiness – 100% 26 Western Cape Election Material and Counting 34 So Far, So Good: IEC Looks On the Campaign Trail in the Eastern Cape Ready for Elections in the Free Western Cape 23 Electoral Process in the Eastern State 29 Eastern Cape Cape 36 Western Cape Party Campaigns: The Non- Mpumalanga The IEC Prepares 32 Contest Election in the Eastern The Election Phase in Mpumalanga 39 Eastern Cape Cape 26 Previous Issue Contents 42 Preparedness in the Eastern Northern Cape

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The Electoral Institute of Southern Africa (EISA) 2nd Floor The Atrium 41 Stanley Ave Auckland Park · PO Box 740 Auckland Park 2006 Tel 27-11-4825495 Fax 27-11-4826163 Email [email protected] URL http://www.eisa.org.za The opinions expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of EISA

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