ELECTION UPDATE 2004 SOUTH AFRICA Number 8 3 May 2004 editorial election of 1999. Thus, the This outcome therefore, has election outcome of 2004 invalidated earlier projections points to the possibility that of some political actors for a The broader significance and South Africa’s democratic two-party system emerging as a meaning of an electoral process system is being institutionalised by-product of the 2004 election to any democracy is not merely and habitualised. The election itself. It does seem that the confined to the voting day and its outcome have dominant party system is alone. The actual meaning and entrenched a culture of poised to endure for the significance of an election to a predictability that is required foreseeable future. democracy is thus far broader for the legitimacy of rule in the than just voting. It is, in country. Not only that: the Khabele Matlosa essence, linked in a large election itself has helped the measure to pre-election country to decisively put contents processes including registration behind it the culture of and political campaign. It is yesteryear’s violent politics as a Editorial 1 pretty much connected to the means of resolving political National Perspectives actual voting that defines the disputes and divergent Post-election Phase: Election choice of leadership by the ideological world outlooks. It Results and Post-Election 2 Ten Years of Democracy and the electorate during election day. has instead inculcated a It is equally linked to the State of Opposition Politics in political culture of consensus South Africa 9 character or the immediate and accommodation necessary election aftermath i.e. the Provincial Roundup for a fragile democracy under Gauteng 13 acceptance of election results conditions of multi-racialism. NorthWest 15 and the extent of political KZN 18 stability that prevails. There have been other various FreeState 23 interpretations of the election Western Cape 27 This eighth issue of our and its aftermath that we may Eastern Cape 30 fortnightly bulletin, Election not be able to tease out in detail Northern Cape 33 Update, therefore grapples with in this bulletin. However, one Mpumalanga 35 Previous Issue Contents 38 the critical issues that surround of these is worth emphasising the election outcome and its here. The election has also immediate aftermath. By all confirmed some of our earlier EISA Editorial Team indications, the South African arguments in this Update that Jackie Kalley, Khabele Matlosa, election of April 2004, was an South Africa’s political system Denis Kadima important defining moment for or to be more precise, its party published with the assistance of the country’s decade of system is marked principally by OSF-SA and NORAD democratic governance. The the dominant party system. ISSN: 1811-7422 election has unequivocally This in simple terms denotes a vindicated observations and situation whereby even under a analyses that portray the condition of multipartyism, country as destined for a stable only one party the ANC (the democratic dispensation ruling party) is dominant that following the founding election opposition parties pose little, if of 1994 and the stabilising any, political challenge at all. Election update 2004 south africa number 8 NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES POST-ELECTION relatively high (1994 - Western European levels of PHASE 86.86% and 1999 - 89.30%) participation, but still higher ELECTION RESULTS while in local government than most African and Latin AND POST-ELECTION elections they are low (1995 American states, as well as REVIEW - 48.79% and 2000 - Japan’s and the United 48.07%). States’. It is noteworthy that Dr Dirk Kotze the general assumption about Unisa For the 2004 elections, from voter apathy in Europe is not confirmed by this summary. Introduction a potential of 27.4 million eligible voters, about 20.67 Nine of the top twenty voter For a period of four days million registered, which turnout averages are between 14 and 17 April amounts to 75.4% of the European, three are Asian, 2004 the election and its total. Of these registered two are Oceanian and six are aftermath was in the balance voters 76.73% voted in the African. The conventional while the final vote counting elections, which are 57.5% wisdom that a decline in and time for objections of all the eligible voters. voter participation is proceeded. On Saturday, 17 Compared to international associated with political April the IEC declared the benchmarks, it is not a low ‘normalisation’, is not final results and announced percentage, though the supported by these statistics. the allocation of seats in the decline between 1999 and Several explanations for the national and provincial 2004 of almost thirteen lower voter turnout in 2004 legislatures. Three percentage points is can be suggested, though we phenomena dominated this worrisome. International are not really sure of the period: good management of IDEA in Stockholm exact reasons. Some would the result capturing process calculated the voter turnout argue that the Easter within three days, the IFP’s averages of the elections weekend immediately before objection to the number of held since 1945. The the election meant that many section 24A votes cast in following are a few selected people were not in their KZN and its reference to the comparative indicators registered voting districts on Electoral Court, and (number of elections per the day of the election and inconclusive negotiation state in brackets, followed by were also not aware of about a KZN provincial the average percentage voter section 24A. Rain in coalition government. participation in those Limpopo province might elections): The following discussion is a have been another broad overview of some of Country Average % voter contributing factor. Others the aspects of the post- turnout were apathetic because the Italy (14) 92.5 ANC was sure of its victory, election phase. The first New Zealand (18 86.2 topic of importance is the Netherlands (15) 84.8 and therefore many voters Sweden (17) 83.3 have had little motivation to voter turn-out. Mauritius (6) 82.8 Germany (13) 80.6 cast their vote. For others, Voter Turnout Venezuela (9 72.2 there was no viable Japan (21) 69.0 alternative for the ANC, South Africans have become Trinidad & Tobago 66.2 (11) because the spectrum of used to the idea that in the USA (26) 48.3 minority parties was too instances of national and Mali (2) 21.7 fragmented and sectoral. provincial elections voter The lower voter turnout was turnout or the percentage South Africa’s percentage is a surprise for many election voter participation is lower than a number of 2 Election update 2004 south africa number 8 Floor analysts. A Markinor opinion Floor-crossing and the Election Party crossing +/- 2004 poll conducted in February Election Results 2003 2004 concluded that 87-92 ANC 68.75 69.68 +0.93 percent of registered voters Prior to the election several DA 12.0 12.37 +0.37 opinion polls were IFP 7.75 6.97 -0.78 indicated their intention to UDM 1.0 2.28 +1.28 vote in the election. published, including those by ID 0.25 1.73 +1.53 the HSRC (November 2003), NNP 5.0 1.65 -3.35 Markinor (November 2003 ACDP 1.75 1.60 -0.15 This prediction did not come FF+ 0.80 0.89 +0.09 true. Most of those who and February 2004) and UCDP 0.78 0.75 -0.03 Mark Data (March/April PAC 0.71 0.73 -0.02 indicated that they were MF 0.25 0.35 +0.10 2004). AZAPO 0.25 0.27 +0.02 unlikely to vote, said that ‘my vote will make no These polls appear to be The most pertinent difference’. A feature of the relatively accurate in respect observation is the NNP’s election has been the of the ANC and to a lesser decline: minus 3.35% since relatively small percentage degree with the DA. In the floor-crossing a year ago. of spoilt votes: a total of 250 respect of the NNP all of The UDM was most hurt by 887 or 1.61% of all the votes them were off the mark, the floor-crossing in 2003, cast. It emerges as a while in the case of the IFP, losing 2.4% of its support. significant number of votes Markinor is unreliable, but With this election it turned considered that only six of the HSRC and Mark Data the tide around and gained the 21 parties at national more accurate. Given the 1.28% again. The level received more votes. fact that the ACDP, UDM, Independent Democrats (ID) The ACDP received 600 FF+ and ID received within is still too young for any votes less and the NNP 7 000 a narrow margin (0.9 - 2.3%) conclusions to be votes more than the spoilt their voter support, even meaningful. votes. The number of special small miscalculations in the votes are even more polls are therefore significant Another striking feature is significant - a total of 651 for them. None of the polls that all the other parties 438 or 4.17% of all the could predict them moved up or down within a votes. They were votes cast accurately. range of one percentage at diplomatic missions point, which is remarkably outside South Africa, votes If one compares the 2004 consistent. Though floor- by election officials, by the election results with the crossing is often discarded elderly, patients in hospitals, effect of the floor-crossing in opportunism of individuals immobile pregnant women, March-April 2003, it appears who are primarily concerned security officials on duty on to be the best barometer about their political careers, election day and similar (except for the NNP) of the the 2004 results suggest that categories of voters - but 2004 elections.