TARGETED KILLINGS IN NORTHERN IRELAND AN ANALYSIS OF THEIR EFFECTIVENESS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICIES By Rory Finegan BA MA MSc MA This thesis is submitted to Dublin City University as the fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Supervisors: Dr. Maura Conway & Dr. John Doyle Centre for International Studies School of Law & Government Dublin City University January 2014 STUDENT DECLARATION I hereby certify that this material, which I now submit for assessment on the programme of study leading to the award of PhD is entirely my own work, that I have exercised reasonable care to ensure the work is original, and does not to the best of my knowledge breach any law or copyright, and has not been taken from the work of others save and to the extent that such work has been cited and acknowledged within the text of my work. Signed____________________(Rory Finegan) ID No.: 57116580 Date 21 January 2014 i In Memoriam To All Those Who Died in What History Now Calls The ‘Troubles.’ Human beings suffer, They torture one another, They get hurt and get hard. No poem or play or song Can fully right a wrong Inflicted and endured. The innocent in gaols Beat on their bars together. A hunger-strikers father Stands in the graveyard dumb The police widow in veils Faints at the funeral home. History says, don’t hope In this side of the grave. But then, once in a lifetime The longed for tidal wave Of justice can rise up, And hope and history rhyme. So hope for a great sea-change On the far side of revenge. Believe that further shore Is reachable from here. Believe in miracles And cures and healing wells. Seamus Heaney1939-2013 Selected Quotes 1995 Nobel Laureate for Literature ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to warmly thank my two supervisors, Dr. John Doyle, Director, Institute for International Conflict Resolution and Reconstruction and Executive Dean, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences and Dr. Maura Conway, Senior Lecturer, School of Law and Government, both of Dublin City University for their guidance, support and encouragement throughout my thesis experience. Firstly, Dr. John Doyle, who challenged, persisted and encouraged at every opportunity. His experience, enthusiasm and energy provided a direction and focus for which I am very grateful. A special thank you to my second supervisor Dr. Maura Conway. Her relaxed and calming influence instilled great confidence and belief in my project. She encouraged the work throughout, reassured when doubt arose and instilled great belief in the journey that I was undertaking. She valiantly mounted rescue operations on several occasions when I was lost in earth orbit. Thanks also to Professor John Horgan of University of Massachusetts Loweel, who suggested the genesis of what became this thesis, also Professor Ray Murphy of NUIG for the key to a sealed door at a critical juncture. Many thanks to Margaret Devlin of the Military College, Command and Staff School for unstinting and patient help in formatting the work. Deep appreciation also to my stalwart friends and compatriots Dr. Owen Foley (Capt. Retd) GMIT and Dr. Conor Galvin (Capt. RDF) UCD who on the marathon that is a PhD were always there when I hit the metaphorical ‘wall’ with both encouragement and suggestions. I am particularly indebted to the interviewees who willingly participated in this research project, whom I found to be both thought provoking and interesting individuals, who challenged my preconceived concepts. The common factor they shared was the great courtesy they extended towards me. Ní neart go cur le chéile. Finally, and most importantly, I wish to dedicate this vignette of research to my wife Helen and also my children Cormac and Ellen and their loving ‘nana’ Angela. “But this dedication is for others to read: These are private words addressed to you in public.” (T.S. Elliot, A Dedication, 1930) iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Student Declaration i In Memoriam ii Acknowledgements iii Table of Contents iv List of Figures xiii List of Tables xvi Abstract xvii INTRODUCTION 1 The Repression Rebellion Puzzle 1 Aim 2 Counterterrorism Policy and Strategy 3 Gauging Success 3 Why is this question important? 3 Why research Northern Ireland ? 4 Structure of the Thesis 6 How is TK generally studied? 6 The Social Movement Theory (SMT) Literature: The Repression / Protest Nexus 7 Chapter Outline 8 CHAPTER I – SETTING THE SCENE 11 Introduction 11 Defining TKs 11 Definitions of TK 12 Legality of TKs 14 Morality of Targeting Terrorists 14 Historical Usage of the Policy 16 Evolution TKs Operational Use; South Africa (1) 16 iv Page Evolution of TKs Operational use; Spain-Eta and the GAL (2) 18 Evolution of TKs Operational Use; Use of TKs since 9/11 by the US (3) 20 Afpak~The Great Game Revisited 21 Playstation War 22 The Collateral Damage Debate 23 Zero Dark Thirty 24 Signature Strikes 25 Evolution and History of Israeli TKs in the Palestinian Occupied Territories 27 Wrath of God 27 Cost Benefit Analysis 29 Israel’s Long Term Security 30 The Institutionalist versus Rational Choice Theory Debate 30 Social, Cultural, Psychological Influences 32 Public Morale and Perceptions 33 CHAPTER II–TOWARDS A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 35 Introduction 35 The Repression-Rebellion Puzzle 35 Cumulative Research Programme 36 The Israeli Policy of TK within a Repression-Rebellion Framework 36 TKs produce a Deterrent Effect 37 Pre-emption as an Adjunct of Deterrence 38 TKs cause a Backlash thereby increasing violence 40 Terror Stock 41 TKs produce a Disruption effect and diminishes violence over time 42 TKs over time have a Diminishing Capacity 45 The Relevance and Suitability of Hafez and Hatfield’s Model as a 46 Conceptual Framework to Study Northern Ireland B’Tselem study 48 Lacunae in the Work of Hafez and Hatfield 49 Motivation and Intention 50 Debate about past approaches 53 v Page Long Term Versus Short Term Oppressive Effect 55 Defenders and Critics of Targeting;– Comparing Deterrence and Backlash 56 Models Recruiting Sergeant 57 Observations from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict 58 Overview 59 CHAPTER III – THE ROAD MAP 60 Introduction 60 60 The Importance of Northern Ireland The Setting 62 Interpretative Research 62 Research Strategy and Design 63 The Concept of Lens: Research Framework 64 Hafez and Hatfield (2006): The Affordances of the Model 65 Representation 68 Deriving a Logic Model from Hafez and Hatfield (2006) 70 Interview and Voice 70 Respondents 73 Reflexivity as Defence against Bias, Subjectivity and ‘Positionality’ 75 Epistemology 76 ‘Positionality’ 78 Data Collection/Field Work 80 Coding and Analysis 83 Ethics 85 Limitation of this Study 85 vi Page Chapter Summary 86 CHAPTER IV – NORTHERN IRELAND IN CONTEXT 87 Historical Background 87 The Rise of the Phoenix 89 1969: The Troubles Erupt 90 Targeting Terrorists 93 Did a TK Policy Exist? 93 The Rise of the Paramilitaries and the State Response 96 The Troubles 97 Dynamics of Violence 99 Play for a Tie 100 PIRA Reorganisation – ‘One Big Push’ to ‘Long War’ 100 PIRAs Strategic Adaptability – The ASUs 101 ASU Weaknesses 102 Republican Heartlands 103 Saor Uladh-Tyrone 104 Bandit Country – South Armagh 105 Evolution of British Counterinsurgency (COIN) Structures 107 War within a War: The Intelligence Battle 108 The Right Capabilities for Analysis: The TCGs 108 Strategic Momentum versus the Brick Wall 110 The Red Hand – Loyalist Counter Violence 111 The Governments Response 112 Terrorism and Counter Terrorism in Northern Ireland: The Dirty War 113 vii Page Evolution and Genesis of Targeted Killings Policy 114 SAS: The Cutting Edge 115 Tyrone: The Perfect Killing Ground 116 Targeted Killings (TKs) by Location 1976-1992 117 Rationale for Cluster Selection 120 Targeted Killings by Identified Cluster 122 The Ascendancy of the SAS 122 CHAPTER V – POLICE SUPREMACY AND THE STALKER AFFAIR 126 CLUSTER I Introduction 126 Northern Ireland in 1982 126 Evolution of TKs in 1982 128 Resurgent PIRA 129 The Active Counter-Insurgency Phase 130 The Shoot-to-Kill Controversy 133 Incident I: Advent of Shoot-to-Kill 135 Ulsterisation 136 The Tullyglass East Shooting 137 Police Supremacy 138 Special Branch 139 Incident II: INLA TK 140 Analysis of Cluster I Using Hafez and Hatfield’s Framework 141 Deterrence 142 viii Page Backlash 146 Fallout from the ‘Stalker Affair’ 148 Action/Reprisal Dynamic 149 Disruption 150 Diminishing Capacity 152 Hearts and Minds 154 Conclusion 155 Ripple Effects 156 CHAPTER VI – CONTAINMENT: EAST TYRONE AND GIBRALTAR 158 CLUSTER II Introduction 158 Northern Ireland 1987-1988 158 East Tyrone PIRA 161 Tyrone ASU Constellations 163 Tyrone’s Geography 163 PIRA Doctrine and Tactics in East Tyrone 165 Incident I: Loughall, PIRA A Team 166 Tyrone PIRA Leadership 168 New PIRA Strategy 168 Ambush at Loughall 171 Incidents II: Gibraltar 173 PIRA GHQ Cell 175 Shoot-to-Kill Debate Reignited 177 Death on the Rock 178 ix Page Incident III; Drumnakilly, Fateful Ruse 180 Intelligence Insight 182 Analysis of Cluster II Using Hafex and Hatfield’s Framework 183 Deterrence 184 Backlash 190 Delayed Backlash 193 Disruption 195 Effect on Tyrone ASUs 197 Diminishing Capacity 199 Substitution and Displacement 201 Covert Surveillance 203 Fishers of Men: The FRU and Informer Recruitment 204 Belfast and Derry Nullified 205 Conclusion 207 Stalemate 209 CHAPTER VII – STALEMATE AND ENDGAME; COAGH AND CLONOE 212 CLUSTER III Introduction 212 Incident I: Death in Hanover Square 213 Operational Use of Intelligence 216 Tit for Tat Killings 217 Incident II: Fin-de-siecle 218