The Cook Political Report’s 2014 Election Road Map
Presented by: David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor Valve Manufacturers Association of America September 20, 2014 Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrict Best (or Worst) Ad of the Cycle?
JD Winteregg, OH-08: “It could be a matter of blood flow” 2014: The “Disruptive” Election? Next Year’s New Congressman?
Next Year’s 87 Year Old Congressman?
Edwards Once Said: “I give blood so they can make Viagra” Political Winner of the Summer? Gov. Rick Perry I: How Did We Get Here?
The Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel Indicator
← Austin, TX
Lebanon, TN →
In 2008, Obama won 80% of counties with a Whole Foods, just 36% of counties with a Cracker Barrel The Great Organic/Nostalgic Sort Election Winner Whole Foods Cracker Barrel Counties Counties Election Culture Year Gap
1992 Clinton (D) 60% 40% 20%
1996 Clinton (D) 66% 41% 25%
2000 Bush (R) 41% 73% 32%
2004 Bush (R) 38% 79% 41%
2008 Obama (D) 80% 36% 44% Election 2012? Even More Polarized
Whole Foods Cracker Barrel Election Winner Counties Counties Election Culture Year Gap
2012 Obama (D) 77% 29% 48%
Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel gap was widest ever
Romney’s rarely lived more than 4.5 mi. from Whole Foods 1) Culture & Lifestyle Trump Policy
Courtesy: Patrick Ruffini Higher Education May Be the “Great Equalizer,” But It’s Now Also the Great Polarizer
The Diploma Belt: In 1988, Michael Dukakis won 42 of the top 100 most educated counties and 37 of the bottom 100 least educated counties in America. In 2012, Barack Obama won 74 of the top 100 most educated counties and 18 of the bottom 100 least educated counties in America. 2) Self-Sorting in the Electorate
New Pew Study: Conservatives Want Bigger Houses, Liberals Desire “Walkability”
3) Gerrymandering: It’s Easier than Ever for Politicians to Choose their Voters
Minority Rule: In 2012, Pennsylvania’s Democratic candidates for House won 83,468 more votes than Republicans, but won just 5 of 18 seats (28%)!
Goal Posts Moved: Nationally, Democrats would need to win 6.8% (!) more votes than House Republicans to win the barest possible House majority.
The Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat, 1998-2014
4) The Indie Surge, 1988-Present (Gallup)
Congressional Approval Near Record Lows: Who Are Those 15% Anyway?
As It Turns Out…
5) Voters’ Attachment to Their Own Members of Congress Weakening
Actual 2012 Results – by County
Just 3 counties (Broward, FL; Cuyahoga, OH, Philadelphia, PA) reelected Obama
Obama won 62% of all Electoral College votes, but just 48% of all Congressional districts (209 of 435) and just 22% of all counties (690 out of 3,114) The Old “Default” Used to Be… GOP White House & Dem Congress
Republicans Democrats - Controlled the White House - Controlled the House for for 28 of 40 years between 28 of the 40 years between 1968 & 2008 1968 & 2008 Today’s Divided Government: A Reversal, Thanks to Geography
Democrats: Natural advantage in statewide races (President & maybe Senate)
Republicans: Coalition is tailor-made to win the majority of House districts
Democrats Republicans - Are Urban, More Minority, Younger - Are Rural, Whiter, Older
- Sufficient to Win Statewide Elections - Sufficient to Win Most Districts
- Turn Out ↑ in Presidential Elections - Turn Out ↑ in Midterm Elections 113th Congress, in Perspective: Historically Few Enacted Laws II: Where Are We Going?
Republican Brand at Record Unpopularity: GOP Favorability Polling 10% Below Democrats But, Guess What? It May Not Matter
2014 is quickly shaping up to be a Republican wave, with substantial GOP gains possible in both the House & Senate 1) Obama’s Approval Ratings Fit “Sixth Year Itch” Historical Pattern Presidential “Chickens Coming Home to Roost”
Bush lost 30 House/6 Senate seats in 2006. Obama lost 63 House/6 Senate seats in 2010. What about 2014? Foreign Policy: Syria/Russia/Iraq Leaving Obama with No Good Options
Foreign Policy: Once Obama’s strong suit, now it’s hurting voters’ opinion of administration’s competence This Morning’s New Washington Post/ABC Poll: Absolutely Brutal 2) GOP’s Built-In Turnout Advantage: The Boom & Bust Generation Gap
Democrats heavily reliant on big margins from voters 18-29, but GOP-leaning seniors vote more in midterm elections The Senate: A Jump Ball
Today: 55 Democrats (including 2 Independents caucusing with Democrats), 45 Republicans Cook Outlook: GOP gain of 4-8 seats. Senate control in 2015 is a Toss Up. Democrats Must Defend 7 (!) Seats in Deeply Red Romney States:
Retirements in MT (Walsh), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller) Incumbents: Begich (AK), Pryor (AR), Landrieu (LA), Hagan (NC)
Razorback Rumble: Arkansas Senate
Will Tom Cotton come to regret his vote against the Farm Bill? That’s when his momentum slowed…
Bayou Brawl: Louisiana Senate
Fasten your seat belts: this thing’s likely to go to a December runoff
Carolina Clash: Hagan vs. Tillis
Could Libertarian pizza deliveryman Sean Haugh spoil Republicans’ chances of taking over the Senate?
…Not to Mention 5 More Potentially Vulnerable Seats in Obama States:
Retirements in IA (Harkin), MI (Levin) Incumbents: Udall (CO), Franken (MN), Shaheen (NH)
Democrats’ Only Takeover Opportunities: Kentucky and Georgia Wild Card for Senate Control: Kansas Why is Senate Control So Important?
Four Supreme Court justices over age of 75 (Scalia, Kennedy, Breyer, Ginsburg)
Thanks to Reid’s “Nuclear Option,” just 51 Senators needed to confirm executive nominees
Not-So-Secret Mission: Democrats launching 10-state, $60 million “Bannock Street Project” with 4,000 field staff to hold the Senate
The Most Valuable Staffer on Every Democratic Campaign in 2014: Remember Akin & Mourdock? Keep in Mind: If Republicans Win Senate in 2014, They Could Easily Lose it in 2016
In 2016, 23 Republican seats up for election, just 10 Democratic seats. (Why? Thank 2010)
2014 Part II: The House
Today: 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats (Democrats need +17 seats to win control) Cook Outlook: GOP Gain of 2-12 seats Remember: Don’t Threaten to Throw Reporters Off Balconies
Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY): On verge of indictment Vulnerable Democratic Seats (26) Vulnerable Republican Seats (13) House: Not Much Partisan Change, But Generational Change in 2015?
Boehner: Top allies (Tom Latham, Frank Wolf, Mike Rogers, Dave Camp) retiring. Cantor out, but would Kevin McCarthy waltz in?
Pelosi: Top allies (George Miller, Henry Waxman) retiring. But she can’t stand the idea of Steny Hoyer taking over as Democratic Leader. 2014, Part III: Governors
Today: 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats (Republicans have 22 governorships to defend, Democrats 14) Cook Outlook: Democratic Gain of 1-2 seats
Vulnerable Republican Governorships
Scott (FL), Brownback (KS), LePage (ME), Snyder (MI), Corbett (PA), Walker (WI)
Vulnerable Democratic Governorships
Vulnerable: Malloy (CT), Abercrombie (HI), Quinn (IL) Open seat in Arkansas (Beebe)
2016: Yup, It Began Before 2012 Ended
But: Republicans Need to Solve 3 Problems by 2016… 1) Republicans Have a Math Problem
1980: Ronald Reagan 2012: Mitt Romney 56% of the White Vote 59% of the White Vote Won by 10% Lost by 4% Won 489 Electoral Votes Won 202 Electoral Votes 2) Republicans Have an Infrastructure Problem
Obama Field Romney Field Offices (10/18) Offices (10/18) 618 251
Targeting Gap: Obama’s ad buying department was 10 times (!) Romney’s
Romney Lagged Behind: “We were building the plane as it was taking off” – Alex Lundry, Romney chief data strategist
3) Republicans Have an Empathy Problem But, if 2016 is a “Change” Election, Democrats Could Have an Even Bigger Problem
Leading Democrats:
69 74 Age at Potential 2017 Inauguration…
Leading Republicans:
54 49 53 45 In Six Months, Will We Meet the “New & Improved Chris Christie?” Total Makeover: Only a New Nominee in 2016 Can Resurrect the GOP Nationally:
The “Can Wins” (Christie, Bush, Rubio, Portman)
The “Tougher Sells” (Cruz, Paul, Perry, Carson)
The “Maybes” (Walker, Kasich, Pence, Huckabee?)
Meanwhile, on Democratic Side, Will She or Won’t She?
For all of Republicans’ current problems, remember: it’s Democrats may be lacking in “new blood” come 2016.
If not Hillary or Joe Biden, who? Cuomo, O’Malley, Warner, Sanders, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Warren, Schweitzer?
2012 Lesson: Be Careful When You Refer to “47% of Americans”…
Final Obama Total Final Romney Total 65,899,557 60,931,959 (51.06%) (47.21%) …You might just end up with them On Election Night 2016, Watch…
2012: Obama 19,712 Romney 19,369 A few dream matchups… 1) The “Bridge Brawl”
Andrew Cuomo (D) vs. Chris Christie (R) 2) The “déjà vu Election”
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R) 3) Or My Personal Favorite…
Joe Biden (D) vs. Joe the Plumber (R)