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Politics Indiana Politics Indiana V15 N11 Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008 As wave builds, Souder confident But Obama-inspired turnout is the ‘wild card’ By MARK SCHOEFF JR. WASHINGTON - Even if a Democratic tsunami washes over the election in 12 days, Rep. Mark Souder (R-3rd CD) expects to stay afloat. “I’m more confident than I have been since May,” Souder said in an HPI interview on Wednesday. “I’m pretty confident I can win.” Internal polls show Souder solidifying his support at 50 percent, a number that will be hard for his challenger, Democrat Michael Montagano, to overcome with a libertarian, U.S. Rep. Mark Souder aboard the USS Mackinaw. Souder defeated U.S. Rep. Jill William Larsen, also in the race. Howey/Gauge Long in the Republican wave of 1994 and now faces a building Democratic wave will poll the 3rd CD tonight and Friday with this year. (Souder Photo) results released on Tuesday. Despite scoring mostly easy victories Obama’s astute campaign, which includes more in his northeast Indiana district since first capturing the than three dozen offices across the state, has put him in seat in 1994, a Souder win this year is not a certainty. The a position to become the first Democrat to win the state Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. Barack Obama, since 1964. The Illinois senator is benefiting from high lev- is running surprisingly well in Indiana, especially in the els of voter disapproval for President Elkhart area on the western edge of the 3rd CD. See Page 4 Polls all over the map By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - With less than two weeks be- fore Election Day, we sense a durable lead for Gov. Mitch Daniels and a distinct possibility that Barack “Indiana is the Moses of Obama will be the first Democratic presidential national politics. We’ve been candidate to carry Indi- ana since 1964. This is wandering around the wilder- based on the sparse but growing amount of re- ness for 40 years.” cently published data in Indiana, national trends, - U.S. Rep. Baron Hill and this candidate and operative behavior near and far, morning’s Obama rally in India- and anecdotal evidence. napolis HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008 Tonight, the fourth 2008 But beyond that there is a spir- Howey Politics Howey-Gauge Poll takes to the field ited debate over a question we posed for trusted data. Howey-Gauge will more than a month ago: whose coat- Indiana present its final results in a special tails are likely to be longer? Daniels’ or is a nonpartisan news- edition mid-day Tuesday, Oct. 28 Obama’s? - one week out. At 3 p.m. Tuesday, Multiple sources tell HPI that letter based in Indianapolis HPI subscribers will be invited to join further down ballot, it is unclear wheth- and published by NewsLink a conference call to hear a discus- er the governor will have more influ- sion of our numbers, other polls and ence than the Democratic presidential Inc. It was founded in for a question-and-answer sequence nominee on the two statewide constitu- 1994 in Fort Wayne. (See page 3 for de- tional offices and Indi- tails). ana House races. That The most re- stands to be one of the Brian A. Howey, publisher cent numbers come major story lines on the Mark Schoeff Jr. Washington from a North Caroli- evening of Nov. 4 and na based firm, Public beyond. The PPP poll writer Policy Polling, Big tends to bear this out. Jack E. Howey, editor 10 Battleground and In the attorney general Beverly Phillips, associate Zogby International. race, Democrat Linda PPP showed Obama Pence led Greg Zoeller editor leading John McCain 42-39 percent; and in 48-46 percent and the superintendent race Subscriptions: Gov. Daniels with a Republican Tony Ben- 57-36 percent lead nett had a 38-36 percent $350 annually HPI via e-mail; over Democrat Jill lead over Richard Wood. $550 annually HPI & HPI Daily Long Thompson. In past elections, the Wire. Conversations with Barack Obama on his way to the statewides tended to informed and reliable podium at the American Legion follow the gubernatorial Call 317-631-9450. sources in both par- Mall in Indianapolis at noon race. There is activity on Howey Politics Indiana ties generally rein- today. (HPI Photos by A. Walker both those fronts. Pence PO Box 40265 force those numbers, Shaw) has leveled an attack ad that are similar to at Zoeller while Daniels Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265. internal polling they has included Bennett in have seen. Zogby (Oct. 17-20) had one of his latest ads. The Pence attack Contact Us McCain leading in Indiana 52.8 to is risky. In this environment, we believe www.howeypolitics.com 42.3 with 4.9 percent undecided. But that the attack mode on an issue (an the Big 10 Battleground Poll (Oct. attorney general’s contract with a lob- [email protected] 19-22) had just the opposite: Obama bying firm owned by Republican opera- Main Office: 317-202-0210. up 51-41 percent. tive Brose McVey) the public has little Howey’s Mobile: 317-506-0883. One Republican opera- understanding or interest. tive said that earlier this year, the Another new Daniels TV ad be- Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. Daniels campaign successfully gan running this week that addressed Washington: 202-256-5822. separated Indiana from the national what we believed to be a potential Business Office: 317-631-9450. right/wrong track numbers. It is vulnerability: the unraveling of the ©2008, Howey Politics something the Daniels’ re-elect has economy and Wall Street, which poten- maintained since last winter: that tially conflicted with his message that Indiana. All rights reserved. Hoosier voters will consider Indiana he’s brought change and jobs to the Photocopying, Internet forwarding, issues in the gubernatorial race and state. In an ad titled “Tough Times” the faxing or reproducing in any form, national issues when it comes to the female narrator notes, “In a weak na- presidential race. If we were to see tional environment, you want the best in whole or part, is a violation of the state and national right/wrong job hunter you can find.” When na- federal law without permission from track numbers align, that would be tional disaster hits, voters want some- the publisher. an ominous development for the one “who knows how to organize.” In governor’s re-elect. a weak economy, Daniels “kept the HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008 books balanced and taxes tive/negatives also zipped down.” The ad ends, “The Howey-Gauge Poll Briefing into dangerous “ticket drag” tougher the times, the territory: 38/47 percent. more you need the best 3 p.m. Tuesday Oct. 28 Her SNL appearance (com- help you can find. That’s plete with a dancing moose) why we hired Mitch.” The Conference Call tended to play right into the ad shows Daniels an- Call: 513-241-0892 lightweight stereotypes that nouncing the Honda plant have developed over the in Greensburg, at the tax Passcode: 6033366# past seven weeks. reform press conference Then there was an NBC with legislative leaders, affiliate question posed to and comforting flood and Obama-McCain Palin by a third grader: what tornado victims. Daniels-Thompson-Horning does a vice president do? These are mes- Palin: “They’re in charge of Attorney General sages that Daniels deliv- the United States Senate, so ers in person at campaign Superintendent of Instruction if they want they can get in stops and economic 3rd CD there with the senators and development announce- make a lot of good policy ments. The final debate changes.” Yikes. We would in Bloomingon on Oct. 14 have loved to have seen didn’t provide an opportu- Sen. Lugar’s or Bayh’s faces nity to reassure the public after hearing that one. the way Obama did at www.HoweyPolitics.com Palin comes back to Indi- his Oct. 8 Indiana State ana for a 6:30 p.m. Saturday Fairgrounds speech. Thus rally at the Fort Wayne Me- the ad, which we believe morial Coliseum with singer successfully addressed Hank Williams Jr. Doors open the poisoned economy at 4 p.m. and dovetails it into the Appearing in Idnianapolis governor’s base message. at mid-day, Obama paid In 2007, campaign ads for homage to the U.S. Marines Indianapolis Mayor Bart who were killed in the Beirut Peterson came off as tone barracks 25 years ago to the deficient between the day. “We revere their sac- campaign mantra and the street level tax revolt that swept rifice,” Obama said on the American Legion Mall. “We will the city. never forget them.” He added that the soldiers in uniform Thompson returned to the airwaves after a seven- now “don’t serve a red America or a blue America.” week financial meltdown. While Republicans have charged He took aim at remarks by Palin that there were that the Democrat was in “attack” mode, we found it mild “pro-American” parts of the country calling it a cheap shot and not very effective. Thompson still suffers from a lack often seen in the final days of the campaign - “all aimed of vision and these ads don’t appear to us as being game at stopping change. Change never came without a fight,” changers. Obama said. “Who’s looking out for the Steelworkers? Who will fight for the teachers? Who will fight for the Teamsters? The Palin moose on the table That’s the kind of president I want to be.
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