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Vote Buying in Indonesia the Mechanics of Electoral Bribery Burhanuddin Muhtadi Vote Buying in Indonesia Burhanuddin Muhtadi Vote Buying in Indonesia

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Vote Buying in Indonesia the Mechanics of Electoral Bribery Burhanuddin Muhtadi Vote Buying in Indonesia Burhanuddin Muhtadi Vote Buying in Indonesia Vote Buying in Indonesia The Mechanics of Electoral Bribery Burhanuddin Muhtadi Vote Buying in Indonesia Burhanuddin Muhtadi Vote Buying in Indonesia The Mechanics of Electoral Bribery Burhanuddin Muhtadi Faculty of Social and Political Sciences Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University (UIN) Jakarta, Indonesia ISBN 978-981-13-6778-6 ISBN 978-981-13-6779-3 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-6779-3 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019 This book is an open access publication Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the pub- lisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institu- tional affiliations. Cover Image: © Elena Odareeva / Alamy Stock Photo This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-­01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This book is based on a revised version of my dissertation at the Australian National University (ANU). Therefore, I am particularly grateful to my dissertation chair, Prof. Edward Aspinall who played a significant role in the evolution of this project. My special thanks and deepest appreciation also go to Prof. Marcus Mietzner, Prof. Allen Hicken, Prof. William Liddle, and Dr. Ward Berenschot, who each read the entire manuscript and provided insightful comments and useful criticism. This book could never have been completed without the help and con- tribution of many people and institutions. First and foremost are my home survey institutes, The Indonesian Survey Institute and Indonesian Political Indicator. My polling organisations not only provided an additional bud- getary support to cover the costs of my post-election survey of voters, they also allowed me to insert several questions into a series of nationwide surveys before the 2014 elections. This project was also enriched by the massive number of electoral dis- trict surveys conducted by the Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC). Therefore, I would like to express my gratitude to my senior colleague, Prof. Saiful Mujani for introducing me to the tradition of empirical and statistically orientated social science research. I have learned much of what I know about quantitative methods from my bright col- league, Deni Irvani, and I have greatly benefited from discussions with him about experimental design and on how to interpret my results. Of course, I also extend my heartfelt appreciation to all of my interviewees who generously gave of their time in interviews and often lengthy discus- sions about their political strategies, opinions, and practices. v vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Finally, I must extend my deepest thanks to my beloved wife, Rahmawati Madanih, and children, Rayhan Adnan Musthafa, Avicenna Ananda Musthafa, and Alexa Shakira Musthafa for their support in completing this project. This book required very costly methods, including the financing of unique, innovative surveys of brokers and politicians. When I was unable to get grants to fully cover all these activities, my wife didn’t object to spending our own money. I am also indebted to my parents, H. Muhtadi and the late Hj. Siti Mas’udah. Without their unfailing encouragement and support, I wouldn’t have been able to finish this project. As is the rule in academic writing, I bear sole responsibility for any errors and inconsistencies in this book. CONTENTS 1 Introduction 1 2 The Prevalence of Vote Buying in Indonesia: Building an Index 45 3 The Determinants of Vote Buying: The Profile of Typical Vote ‘Sellers’ 81 4 Do Candidates Target Loyalists or Swing Voters? Beyond the Core- Versus Swing-­Voter Debate 109 5 How Targeting Goes Astray: Explaining the Gap Between Intentions and Outcomes 133 6 Vote Brokerage, Personal Networks, and Agency Loss 171 7 Does Vote Buying Affect Voting Behaviour? Chasing Winning Margins and the Prisoner’s Dilemma 209 8 Conclusion 243 vii viii CONTENTS Appendix A: Indonesian Voter Surveys 267 Appendix B: Survey of Brokers and Candidates 277 Appendix C: Correlation Between Variables (Pearson’s r) 287 Appendix D: Normality Test of the Linear Regression Analysis of the Determinants of Vote Buying 291 Appendix E: Logistic Regression Analysis of the Determinants of Vote Buying 293 Appendix F: Multivariate Analyses of the Determinants of Winning and Losing Incumbents 295 Bibliography 297 Index 311 LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 1.1 Trend of party membership in Indonesia, 2004–2014 (%). Sources: A series of surveys from April 2004 to September 2012 belong to LSI; while surveys in December 2013, August 2014, and October 2014 owned by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC); Surveys in January 2014, February 2014, April 2014, May 2014, and June 2014 by Indikator 21 Fig. 1.2 Province selection for MP and broker surveys. Source: Indikator and SMRC’s pre-legislative election surveys in 73 electoral districts during the run-up to the 2014 legislative election 33 Fig. 2.1 Increasing rates of being targeted for vote buying, 2009–2014 (%). Source: The April 2009 data was drawn from LSI’s survey, the December 2013 data was taken from SMRC’s survey, and the April 2014 numbers were drawn from my post-election survey 51 Fig. 2.2 Individual and neighbourhood vote buying in 2014 (%). Source: My post-election survey, 22–26 April 2014 51 Fig. 2.3 Vote-buying offers at the national and local executive elections (%). Source: My post-election survey, 22–26 April 2014 56 Fig. 4.1 Distribution of partisanship across political parties (%). Source: My post-election survey, 22–26 April 2014 111 Fig. 4.2 Party identification and vote buying approaching the 2014 election (%). Source: The January, February–March, and late March 2014 data were taken from my pre-election surveys, while the April 2014 numbers were drawn from my post-­election survey (see Appendix A) 114 ix x List of Figures Fig. 4.3 Party base is the preferred target (%) (All sample here represents a combination of local MPs and brokers. However, as indicated earlier, the proportion of brokers surveyed is much larger than the proportion of local politicians interviewed. See Appendix B.). The survey question used is: “During the last 2014 legislative election, how did you distribute largesse in order to get votes?” Source: My survey of low-level politicians and brokers, 30 September–25 October 2014 119 Fig. 4.4 Party base receives more resources (%). Source: My survey of low-level politicians and brokers, 30 September–25 October 2014 120 Fig. 4.5 Why do success team members target loyalists (left panel) or uncommitted voters (right panel)? (%). Source: My survey of low-level politicians and brokers, 30 September–25 October 2014 121 Fig. 4.6 Gift receipt by partisan effect: Direct vote buying (%). Source: My post-­election survey, 22–26 April 2014 128 Fig. 4.7 Gift receipt by partisan effect: Neighbourhood vote buying (%). Source: My post-election survey, 22–26 April 2014 129 Fig. 5.1 Proportion of voters stating they felt close to a party, Indonesia, 1999–2015 (%). Sources: May–July 1999: University of Indonesia and Ohio State University; October 2002: Centre for the Study of Islam and Society (PPIM); A series of surveys from November 2003 to March 2013 and one survey in January 2015 belong to the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI); October 2013, December 2013, End March 2014, Early June 2014, October 2015 and December 2015: Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC); Early and End of January 2014, February– March 2014, Early March 2014, April 2014, May 2014, End June 2014: Indikator Politik Indonesia 140 Fig. 5.2 Political actors’ perceptions of the frequency of loyal voters (%). The question used is “In your region, out of ten typical voters how many people would who always vote in every election and would always vote for the party/candidate you support?” Source: My survey of low-level politicians and brokers, 30 September–25 October 2014 147 Fig. 5.3 Loyalists who would change their vote if they stopped receiving assistance (%). Source: My survey of low-level politicians and brokers, 30 September–25 October 2014 161 Fig. 5.4 Payments as a binding transaction or gift? Source: My survey of brokers, 30 September–25 October 2014 163 List of Figures xi Fig. 6.1 Brokers’ relationship with the person who invited them to join the team (%). Source: My survey of brokers, 30 September–25 October 2014 183 Fig.
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