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Economy and Territory Commercial Relations The Labyrinth of Subregional Integration in the South Mediterranean

Iván Martín economic system. As single entities, ges and lower figures in job creation, Universidad Carlos III the individual national markets are too in addition to the increased bargai- Panorama: the Mediterranean Year de Madrid small to attract productive investment ning power these three countries by targeting their domestic markets, would have if they acted in collabora- and their lack of competitiveness makes tion at the international forums and The year 2003 ended with yet another it very difficult for them to become toward their main trading partners, in- failure of the attempts to revitalise the export platforms. However, the influx stead of negotiating separately, and

Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) between of large volumes of foreign investment to the potential for softening the fore- 2003 , and (and Lib- is a vital link for the feasibility of the in- seeable negative consequences that ya and ), with the suspen- ternal and external liberalisation and the expansion of the European Union Med. sion sine die of the summit of the modernisation process in which these towards the east will have for these Chiefs of State of the five member countries are immersed.1 countries. countries, which was to be held in Al- Even Morocco, which until now has giers on 23rd December 2003, thus monolithically made any progress in wiping out four years of intensive di- this area conditional on the formal re- Waiting for Agadir? plomatic efforts. Since its creation in cognition of its sovereignty over West

1989, the AMU has never truly got off , seems to be starting to ques- In the midst of this rather depressing 164-165 the ground, and has not even been tion the cost of this attitude. In a report picture, the good news on the subre- able to overcome the closure of the issued by its Finance Ministry in July gional integration front has been the borders between Algeria and Moroc- 2003,2 the benefits that could be - Agadir Agreement, signed in Agadir on co since the summer of 1994. If fi- tained from removing barriers to eco- 8th May 2001 between Morocco, Tu- gures can say more than a thousand nomic exchanges within the Maghreb nisia, and Jordan, in order to mo- words, 63 % of the Maghreb coun- were estimated at 4.6 billion dollars a ve the calendar forward for trade lib- tries’ trade exchanges are with the Eu- year (3 billion in increased foreign in- eralisation between them and to create ropean Union, 19 % are with the United vestment and 1.6 billion in increased a free trade area (FTA) for all their prod- States and , and less than 2 % regional trade flows), that is, the equi- ucts, without exception, by the start with each other (trade exchanges be- valent of 4.4 % of the joint GDP of of 2006. In January 2003, the four tween the twelve EU partner countries Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. The re- countries concluded negotiations on in the South and East Mediterranean port stated that «the cost of the non- the Agreement’s final text (except for barely exceed 4.5 % of their total im- Maghreb could end up being unsus- certain technical appendices and the ports and exports). tainable for the ’s economies». final tariff dismantling schedule). This This paralysing of Maghreb integration Although the study suffers from a few text was to be approved by the coun- is becoming a major Gordian knot for shortcomings in its handling of the fig- tries’ legislative bodies during the year the economy dynamics of the Magh- ures,3 it does identify as a major issue and come into force in 2004. How- reb, and the solution of one of its main the costs of the lack of Maghrebian ever, apart from its declarative value strategic quandaries in the medium integration in terms of lost foreign in- –the European Union has been quick term, namely, its insertion in the world vestment, limitations of trade exchan- to offer its support – so far nobody has

1 On this subject, see I. MARTÍN (2001): «La inversión extranjera directa en los países del Magreb en el marco de la Asociación Eurome- diterránea: ¿el eslabón perdido?», in REM. Revista de Economía Mundial no. 4, pp. 175-206, University of Huelva (draft English version, «The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership and Inward FDI in Maghreb Countries», in http://econwpa.wustl.edu:80/eps/it/papers/0307/ 0307006.pdf). 2 Direction de la Politique Économique Générale, Les enjeux de l’integration maghrébine, working document no. 90, . (http://www.finances. gov.ma/dpeg/publications/en_catalogue/doctravail/doc_texte_integral/dt91.pdf.) 3 See I. MARTÍN: «¿De verdad la UMA vale $ 4.600 millones al año?», Magreb Negocios confidential bulletin, October 2003. THE ASSOCIATION OF MEDITERRANEAN CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY (ASCAME)

The Association of Mediterranean Chambers ration of a joint seminar aimed at African ASCAME, involving over nine hundred re- of Commerce and Industry (ASCAME) was Chambers of Commerce (Maghreb and gistered participants from around twenty created on 1st October 1982 by a consti- Sub-Saharan ). countries and more than 150 business ren- tuent assembly in , on an initiative • The United Nations: ASCAME has worked dezvous. of the Chamber of Commerce, Industry and alongside several commissions of the Unit- 3. Business cooperation activities in con- Navigation of Barcelona. The General Se- ed Nations (such as ECE/ ECA/ ESCWA junction with other institutions: cretariat of ASCAME has been based in as part of the project «Capacity building in • Barcelona Business and Franchise Exhibi- Barcelona since the end of 2001. trade facilitation and electronic business tion (BNF) and the First Mediterranean Fran- ASCAME is an organisation with a potential in the Mediterranean», E-Med Business); with chise Forum (BNF), between 22nd and 24th of five hundred Chambers of Commerce and specialised organisations of the United Na- February 2003 in Barcelona. other associated institutions from twenty- tions (such as UNIDO); and in the United • AMI Forum, from 11th to 14th March 2003 two countries in the Mediterranean region. Nations’ Environmental Programme (includ- in . ASCAME’s high and still-growing number of ing participation in the Mediterranean Com- • ECOMED-POLLUTEC Exhibition and the these member organisations, which corre- mission for Sustainable Development, in the First Mediterranean Sustainable Development spond to virtually all the Mediterranean coun- capacity of a representative of the private Forum, on 11th March 2003 in Barcelona. tries, makes the Association the institution sector). • MEDIBIT Tourism Exhibition, between 21st with the greatest geographical scope among • The European Union: participation in sev- and 23rd March 2003 in Palermo. all the organisations (of any kind - political, eral European projects (such as the E-Cham- • International Logistics Exhibition (SIL) economic, scientific and cultural) in the Med- ber project; The European Extended Enter- and the First Mediterranean Logistics and iterranean community. prise for Innovation; as well as the creation Transport Forum, from 17th to 18th June The Association is extremely important in the of a consortium and participation in the call 2003 in Barcelona field of international cooperation between for the supply of services for the project • Second North African Business and De- the various Mediterranean Chambers of «Promotion of international arbitration and velopment Forum (NABDF), between 19th Commerce, and its role has been acknowl- other alternative techniques for resolving and 30th September 2003 at the Llotja de edged by the most prominent European and commercial disputes»; and the DAMS. Ar- Mar premises in Barcelona. international institutions. Some of the nota- chive project). • Eleventh International Construction, Con- ble activities among those undertaken over 2. Business cooperation activities organ- struction Material, Technology and Building the course of 2003 are the following: ised by ASCAME: Restoration Exhibition (BAUCON YEPEX), 1. Projects/ programmes involving inter- • First Mediterranean Tourism Forum (MEDI- held on 16th and 17th October 2003 in An- national organisations: TOUR), between 8th and 10th May 2003 talya, Turkey. • African Development Bank (ADB): prepa- in (Morocco): activity organised by More information: www.ascame.com

been able to explain exactly what ad- been postponed and the approved li- sitional period. The preliminary results ded value this initiative offers on top of beralisation programme contains many are apparently spectacular, with a 78 the multiple regional economic inte- exceptions. % increase in its exports to the North gration projects that are being imple- At the same time, the European Union American markets, particularly of tex- mented in the region, particularly when has signed partnership agreements tiles, during the first year (although in we consider the lack of territorial con- with most of the countries in the region 2001, before the agreement was im- tinuity between the signatory coun- that provide for the creation of Euro- plemented, these exports had already tries, which do not share any direct mediterranean Free Trade Areas, with increased three-fold). Completion of land border. reciprocal phasing out of all tariffs on bilateral negotiations for the creation In any case, the Agadir Agreement industrial products over a twelve-year of another FTA with Morocco have does not break much new ground. In- period (the first area, with Tunisia, will been announced by the end of 2003. deed, on 1st January 1998, a project be completed in 2010, with Morocco In June 2003, the Bush Administration to create a greater Arab free trade in 2012, with Jordan in 2014, and with launched the Trade Initia- area (GAFTA) came into force between Lebanon in 2015; the agreement is tive, with the declared goal of creating eighteen Arab countries (again, Al- currently in the process of ratification a FTA with thirteen countries in the re- geria is not one of them). Its goal is to with Algeria, although it should come gion, provided that their governments phase out, over a ten-year period, the into force in 2004 and be fully opera- show «commitment to openness and reciprocal tariffs on all products (with tional in 2016; with regard to , ne- economic reform», over a ten-year pe- a linear 10 % reduction each year gotiations are still underway). riod. The first step in the process until 2008), although this excludes In addition, there are also the free should be the negotiation of bilateral services and investments. Although trade areas recently promoted in the FTAs with the , some- the GAFTA was originally to also region by the United States: the FTA thing that so far has only began in include the dismantling of non-tariff with Jordan has been in force since practice in the case of Bahrain. There barriers, the negotiations on this have 1st January 2002, with a ten-year tran- are also bilateral free trade agreements between certain countries in the region, • The tangle of partnership treaties • As can be surmised from a mere such as Morocco, on one hand, and and trade agreements reduces the glance at Graphic 11, the network Tunisia, Egypt y Jordan, respectively, transparency of the rules of the of regional integration agreements on the other, and between Egypt and game for the economy agents. This runs the risk of strengthening a ra- Jordan.4 has particularly negative consequen- dial (hub and spokes) patter of eco- This plethora of preferential trade ces for small and medium-sized en- nomic relations, characterised by a agreements has led to the creation of terprises, which have insufficient high and ever-growing agglomera- a complex maze (see Figure 1), whose resources to obtain the legal advice tion of economic activity on the axis individual parts comprise the main and expertise that this plethora of or hub, with which numerous satel- vectors for putting together a poten- regulations requires; in other words, lite or peripheral markets are linked, tial Mediterranean economic space. it works against the vast majority of with little integration between them. However, it also raises a few consist- the firms in the region. In the case of the Middle East and ency problems in addition to creating • The degree of synergy between the North African countries, this is cle- doubts as to their compatibility with different integration processes is arly the pattern of trade relations the agreements signed within the very limited. Indeed, in some as- with the EU that the Euromediter- framework of the World Trade Orga- pects they may even be conflictive, ranean Partnership favours. Addi- nization (Lebanon, Syria, and as is the case particularly with the tionally in the last two years, the Panorama: the Mediterranean Year Algeria are the countries in the region issue of the rules of origin, which growing activism of US trade diplo- that do not yet belong to the WTO Or, each trade agreement defines fol- macy in the region runs the risk of to put it another way, it raises the issue lowing a different method. The tech- creating a second gravitational hub of the optimal mix of regional trade nical complexity in the handling of for the Mediterranean Arab eco- agreements for these countries.5 the rules of origin propitiates arbi- nomies, which could give rise to a

These problems can be summarised trary actions by the authorities and «rugby ball» model of relations with 2003 as follows: lack of transparency. the two major economic poles of Med.

GRAPHIC 11 Regional integration processes in the Middle East and (*)

EUROPEAN UNION

ALGERIA TUNISIA LIBYA EGYPT 166-167 MOROCCO JORDAN

MAURITANIA ARAB COUNTRIES

UNITED STATES

Maghreb Agadir Agreement GAFTA (Greater Arab Free Trade Area) USA-Jordan Free Trade Area Euromediterranean Free Trade Areas USA-Morocco Free Trade Area

(*) The solid lines show the preferential trade agreements that are already in force. The dotted lines show the initiatives that are still in the project stage or under negotiation. To avoid making the diagram more com- plicated, other Middle East countries whose trade liberalisation processes are less advanced, such as Lebanon and Syria, have not been shown. Also, the diagram does not include Turkey due to its special status as a candidate for EU membership, and Israel, because it is a developed country subject to very different dynamics.

4 See the world map of regional integration agreements drawn up by the WTO in 2000 (http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/ wtregw41_e.doc). 5 Recent studies on this complex issue have been published in the books DESSUS, S., DEVLIN, J. and SAFADI, R. (eds.) (2001): Towards Arab and Euro-Med Regional Integration, OECD, (downloadable at http://www1.oecd.org/publications/e-book/4101091E.PDF), and A. GALAL & B. HOEKMAN (eds.) (2003): Arab Economic Integration. Between Hope and Reality, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Cairo, and Brookings Institution Press, Washington D.C. the world. The difficulties raised genuine economic community be- longation of geopolitical strategies by by the so-called accumulation of ru- tween them. In this respect, we other means, has also reached the les of origin as a consequence of its should not lose sight of the impor- Mediterranean region, the proliferation myriad definitions only serve to ex- tance and variability of the non-ta- of regional integration initiatives does acerbate this problem. riff barriers, which often render in- not seem to be contributing to a reap- • The degree of credibility of trade effective any apparent lowering of praisal of the classic pattern of North- agreements as legally binding in- trade barriers through tariff disman- South economic relations (or, in his- struments for regulating economic tling. In addition, for a market eco- toric terms, between metropolis and relations between the region’s coun- nomy and trade relations to opera- colonies) nor of the patterns of struc- tries is very low. This is mainly be- te effectively, there must be a real tural trade, financial and technologi- cause they are rarely accompanied rule of law that guarantees the indi- cal dependence that are their hallmark. by firm political commitments – nor vidual rights of people and compa- In other words, this proliferation does the social consensus required for nies as well as the enforcement of not promote a catch-up or conver- this – and a lack of institutionalisa- the rules in equal conditions for all gence in the levels of development. tion, and because, in most cases, economic agents. On the contrary, it is contributing to they are little more than negative or consolidate or even to widen the eco- shallow integration processes that To conclude, although the vogue of nomic gap which over the last five confine themselves to the removal regionalism, as a concurrent pheno- hundred years has divided the Med- of barriers, without creating any menon to globalisation and as a pro- iterranean region.