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Results: CNOOC (0883.HK) Citi Research Equities 23 Aug 2018 11:17:18 ET │ 10 pages Exploration & Production Asia │ China CNOOC (0883.HK) Estimate Change Results: Result Beats; Better than expected DPS; All-in Cost Further Down; Upbeat Tone on Offshore China New Discoveries Buy 1 Citi's Take — CNOOC 1H18 net profit came in at Rm25.5bn, up 57% yoy. Stripping Price (23 Aug 18 16:10) HK$12.84 out Rmb6.6bn impairment from a JV in Argentina, core profit in 1H18 grew strongly Target price HK$16.50 by 94% yoy to Rmb32.1bn. This is 11% ahead of our estimate of Rmb28.9bn. The Expected share price return 28.5% strong core earnings were driven by the 34% yoy increase in realized oil price to Expected dividend yield 4.6% US$67.4 and well-controlled all-in cost. An interim DPS of HK$0.3 is proposed Expected total return 33.1% (higher than our HK$0.27), implying annualized dividend yield of 4.7%. Market Cap HK$573,273M Further reduction in all-in cost (ex. FX impact) — CNOOC’s all-in cost was well US$73,033M controlled at US$31.8/boe in 1H18 vs US$31.7/boe in 1H17 and US$33.4/boe in 2H17. Excluding FX impact, all-in cost in 1H18 was just US$30.6/boe. Opex increased by US$0.8/boe but was fully offset by a US$2.1/boe decline in DD&A Price Performance given the impairment in 2015-17 and new reserve booking. (RIC: 0883.HK, BB: 883 HK) Very upbeat tone on new discoveries in offshore China – CNOOC made 6 new discoveries and 33 successful appraisal wells in offshore China in 1H18. In Bohai, two hundred million ton-class oil & gas fields are discovered (Bozhong19-6 & 29-6). Mgt is confident that output in Bohai can maintain at 30mt p.a (in line with current output) till 2030 despite a 10% natural decline given the upcoming new projects. Huge long-term potential overseas – We see an improving LT outlook for CNOOC given the promising discoveries in overseas projects like Stabroek in Guyana where recoverable resources are up to 4bn boe. Rising contribution from natural gas in medium term – Natural gas output accounted for 17%/19% of total output in 2017/1H18. It is the first time that mgt clearly stated their intention to increase gas output given the gas demand in China. Implications — Maintain Buy, TP maintained at HK$16.5. We factor in the Rmb6.6bn impairment which leads to an 8% cut in our FY18E EPS forecast. Statistical Abstract Toby Shek AC +852-2501-2749 Year to Net Profit Diluted EPS EPS growth P/E P/B ROE Yield [email protected] 31 Dec (RmbM) (Rmb) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) Oscar Yee 2016A 637 0.014 -96.9 na 1.3 0.2 2.8 +852-2501-2473 2017A 24,677 0.553 na 20.3 1.3 6.5 3.7 [email protected] 2018E 57,664 1.291 133.7 8.7 1.2 14.5 4.6 Bennett Lee 2019E 53,704 1.203 -6.9 9.3 1.1 12.4 4.8 [email protected] 2020E 41,446 0.928 -22.8 12.1 1.1 9.0 3.7 Source: Powered by dataCentral See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and non-US research analyst disclosures. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author's published research) are available only on Citi's portals. CNOOC (0883.HK) 23 August 2018 Citi Research Capex is likely to be back-end loaded in 2H18 – CNOOC spent Rmb21bn capex in 1H18, taking up only 26-30% of the full-year budget of Rmb70-80bn. The slow capex run rate was due to the 1) seasonality (1H is always a lower season in terms of offshore drilling activities) and 2) delay in overseas project (Uganda project). Management expects capex spending to accelerate in 2H and maintain Rmb70- 80bn guidance unchanged. Figure 1. CNOOC – Half-Yearly Income Statement In Rmb mn 1H16 2H16 FY16 1H17 2H17 FY17 1H18 1H18 Y/Y 1H18 H/H Revenue E&P 55,083 66,242 121,325 74,943 76,945 151,888 90,309 21% 17% Marketing revenue 10,058 10,252 20,310 14,237 14,670 28,907 12,538 -12% -15% Other 1,691 3,164 4,855 3,182 2,413 5,595 2,802 -12% 16% Total revenue 66,832 79,658 146,490 92,362 94,028 186,390 105,649 14% 12% Costs Operating expense (11,257) (11,954) (23,211) (11,299) (12,983) (24,282) (11,610) 3% -11% Production taxes (3,683) (3,258) (6,941) (3,752) (3,458) (7,210) (4,245) 13% 23% Exploration Expenses (3,419) (3,940) (7,359) (2,673) (4,208) (6,881) (2,260) -15% -46% DD&A (35,129) (33,778) (68,907) (31,824) (29,433) (61,257) (27,221) -14% -8% Special oil gain levy - - - - (55) (55) (1,117) n.m. n.m. Impairment losses related to P,P&E (10,359) (1,812) (12,171) (305) (8,825) (9,130) (159) -48% -98% Crude oil purchases (9,463) (9,555) (19,018) (13,538) (14,105) (27,643) (11,700) -14% -17% SG&A (2,812) (3,681) (6,493) (3,188) (3,673) (6,861) (3,135) -2% -15% Others (1,506) (3,296) (4,802) (3,698) (2,323) (6,021) (2,964) -20% 28% Operating expense (77,628) (71,274) (148,902) (70,277) (79,063) (149,340) (64,411) -8% -19% Operating profits (10,796) 8,384 (2,412) 22,085 14,965 37,050 41,238 87% 176% Interest income 387 514 901 309 344 653 327 6% -5% Finance costs (3,175) (3,071) (6,246) (2,704) (2,340) (5,044) (2,471) -9% 6% Exchange gains, net (308) (482) (790) 294 62 356 254 -14% 310% Investment income 2,005 769 2,774 1,063 1,346 2,409 1,675 58% 24% Share of profits of associates and JCEs 229 (305) (76) 441 414 855 (6,272) n.m. n.m. Other non-operating 11 563 574 28 50 78 766 2636% 1432% Profit before tax (11,647) 6,372 (5,275) 21,516 14,841 36,357 35,517 65% 139% Tax 3,912 2,000 5,912 (5,266) (6,414) (11,680) (10,040) 91% 57% Net Income (7,735) 8,372 637 16,250 8,427 24,677 25,477 57% 202% Basic EPS (Rmb) (0.17) 0.18 0.01 0.36 0.19 0.55 0.57 58% 200% Brent (US$/bbl) 41.2 49.0 45.1 52.7 56.8 54.7 71.2 35% 25% CNOOC's realized oil ASP (US$/bbl) 37.7 45.3 41.4 50.4 55.0 52.7 67.4 34% 23% Source: Company Data, Citi Research 2 CNOOC (0883.HK) 23 August 2018 Citi Research Figure 2. All-in Cost and Profit per boe Figure 3. CNOOC – Realised Crude Oil Price vs. Brent/ Duri Price US$ per boe 120 US$/bbl US$/bbl 8 120 70 106.3 6 100 100 60 86.2 50 4 80 80 67.4 40 57.5 54.9 2 60 50.4 43.2 45.4 45.2 30 60 41.4 41.2 38.5 37.7 40 34.9 34.5 31.7 33.4 31.8 0 20 40 20 10 -2 20 0 0 -4 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 Realized oil price All-in cost Profit per boe (RHS) 0 -6 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 CNOOC ASP - Brent (rhs) CNOOC ASP - Duri (rhs) Realized crude oil price (US$/bbl) - (lhs) Source: Company Data, Citi Research Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, Citi Research Key Highlights of Q&As Q: Capex in 1H was around Rmb20bn, is management still optimistic in meeting FY target (Rmb 70-80bn)? A: 1H usually has a smaller amount of investment; also there are some uncontrollable external factors (e.g., the Uganda project) that delayed capex spending. CNOOC will accelerate investment in 2H given the good atmosphere in the oil industry. Therefore management is confident in meeting the capex target. Q: CNOOC had a strong operating cash inflow in 1H, what are the future plans in spending the cash? A: CNOOC has been investing heavily in exploration wells (30+ projects in the pipeline) and will continue to invest when there are good opportunities. E&P is still its investment focus. Q: Government intended to increase domestic crude oil production, will this change CNOOC’s 3-year rolling production targets? A: Management will stick to the target as a base-line production guideline, and will increase production accordingly if new project developments are faster than expected. Q: What are management’s views on the all-in cost in 2H18? A: Management will actively monitor the all-in cost just the same as in 1H. Despite the industry recovery, CNOOC was still able to control cost in 1H18.
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