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«Abc Impacts» AVIATION AND THE BELGIAN CLIMATE POLICY: INTEGRATION OPTIONS AND IMPACTS «ABC IMPACTS» S. MEYER, J. MATHEYS, A. BERNARDINI, A. FERRONE, P. MARBAIX, T. VAN LIER, P. GRENIER SCIENCE FOR A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (SSD) Climate, Transport & Mobility FINAL REPORT AVIATION AND THE BELGIAN CLIMATE POLICY: INTEGRATION OPTIONS AND IMPACTS “ABC IMPACTS” SD/CP/01 Promotors Walter Hecq – Marek Hudon Université Libre de Bruxelles, Université d‟Europe (ULB) Centre d‟Etudes Economiques et Sociales de l‟Environnement (CEESE) av. Jeanne 44 CP 124 – B-1050 Brussels Joeri Van Mierlo Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) Department of Electrotechnical Engineering and Energy Technology, Transportation Technology Research Group (ETEC) Pleinlaan 2 Gebouw Z – B-1050 Brussels Cathy Macharis Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) Mathematics, Operational Research, Statistics and Informatics- Transport and Logistics Research Group (MOSI-T) Pleinlaan 2 – B-1050 Brussels Jean-Pascal van Ypersele de Strihou Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL) Institut d‟astronomie et de géophysique Georges Lemaître (ASTR) Chemin du cyclotron, 2 – B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve Authors Sandrine Meyer (CEESE-ULB) Julien Matheys (ETEC-VUB) Annalia Bernardini, Tom Van Lier (MOSI-T-VUB) Andrew Ferrone, Philippe Marbaix, Patrick Grenier (ASTR-UCL) D/2012/1191/8 Published in 2012 by the Belgian Science Policy B-1000 Brussels Belgium Tel: +32 (0)2 238 34 11 – Fax: +32 (0)2 230 59 12 http://www.belspo.be Contact person: Georges Jamart +32 (0)2 238 36 90 Neither the Belgian Science Policy nor any person acting on behalf of the Belgian Science Policy is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. The authors are responsible for the content. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without indicating the reference : S. Meyer, J. Matheys, A. Bernardini, A. Ferrone, P. Marbaix, T. Van Lier, P. Grenier. Aviation and the Belgian climate policy: integration options and impacts. Final report phase . Brussels: Belgian Science Policy 2012 – 118 p. (Research Programme Science for a Sustainable Development). Project SD/CP/01 - Aviation and the Belgian climate policy: integration options and impacts – “ABC Impacts” TABLE OF CONTENT TABLE OF CONTENT .......................................................................................................... 3 ACRONYMS, ABBREVIATIONS AND UNITS ...................................................................... 5 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 7 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................13 1.1. Climate stake and transport ............................................................................................... 13 1.2. Aviation, climate and climate policy ................................................................................. 13 1.3. Objectives ............................................................................................................................ 14 1.4. Teams ................................................................................................................................... 14 1.5. Content ................................................................................................................................. 15 2. METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS .................................................................................15 2.1. Market overview and market forecasts of the aviation sector ....................................... 17 2.1.1. Market overview .............................................................................................................. 17 2.1.2. Market forecasts ............................................................................................................. 20 2.2. Technical considerations, emissions model and comparison with different transportation modes ......................................................................................................... 24 2.2.1. Aircraft emissions and energy efficiency ........................................................................ 24 2.2.2. Activity database and emission calculations: evolution of the different kinds of emissions in the Belgian airspace ................................................................................................... 28 2.2.3. Evaluation of different current and future aircraft technologies ...................................... 31 2.2.4. Optimized operational measures .................................................................................... 39 2.3. Climate impacts from the aviation sector ......................................................................... 45 2.3.1. Impacts of aviation on climate ........................................................................................ 46 2.3.2. Modelling the global impacts of aviation on climate (interactive model) ........................ 52 2.3.3. Regional climate modelling ............................................................................................. 55 2.3.4. Metrics of climate impacts – comparing impacts from CO2 and other causes for mitigation purposes ......................................................................................................... 59 2.3.5. Flight impacts calculators ............................................................................................... 63 2.4. Climate policy options ........................................................................................................ 66 2.4.1. Potential/existing policy tools .......................................................................................... 66 2.4.2. International climate policy and aviation ......................................................................... 69 2.4.3. EU Directive 2008/101/EC .............................................................................................. 70 2.5. Multicriteria analysis ........................................................................................................... 75 2.5.1. Description ...................................................................................................................... 75 2.5.2. Methodology ................................................................................................................... 75 2.5.3. The set up of the ABC Impacts - MCA ........................................................................... 78 2.5.4. Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 87 2.6. Scenarios development and links with the MCA ............................................................. 89 2.7. Main conclusions and recommendations ........................................................................ 92 2.7.1. Technical and operational mitigation options ................................................................. 92 2.7.2. Modelling aviation climate impacts ................................................................................. 93 2.7.3. Metrics of impact on climate and inclusion of aviation in cap-and-trade systems .......... 93 2.7.4. Belgium and aviation climate impacts ............................................................................ 95 2.8. What about international maritime transport? ................................................................. 95 2.8.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 95 2.8.2. Market characteristics and evolution .............................................................................. 96 2.8.3. Emission inventories ....................................................................................................... 96 2.8.4. Climate impacts of shipping and mitigation potential ..................................................... 97 2.8.5. Mitigation potential .......................................................................................................... 99 2.8.6. Policy options .................................................................................................................. 99 SSD - Science for a Sustainable Development – Climate, Transport and mobility 3 Project SD/CP/01 - Aviation and the Belgian climate policy: integration options and impacts – “ABC Impacts” 2.8.7. Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 100 3. POLICY SUPPORT ...................................................................................................... 101 3.1. Project scientific support to Belgian administrations ................................................... 101 3.1.1. Ad hoc committee on bunker fuels ............................................................................... 101 3.1.2. Vlaamse Milieu Maatschappij ....................................................................................... 101 3.1.3. CEMAR ......................................................................................................................... 101 3.2. Project scientific support to international institutions ................................................. 102 3.3. Project scientific support
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