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WHITHER PAKISTAN? GROWING INSTABILITY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses New Delhi 1 Whither Pakistan? Growing Instability and Implications for India Cover Illustration : Maps on the cover page show the area under Taliban control in Pakistan and their likely expansion if the Pakistani state fails to take adequate measures to stop the Taliban’s advance, which may lead to the fragmentation of Pakistan. Maps drawn are not to scale. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, sorted in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo-copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). ISBN: 81-86019-70-7 Disclaimer: The views expressed in this report are of the Task Force and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute and the Government of India. First Published: June 2010 Price : Rs 299/- Published by: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No.1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Delhi Cantt., New Delhi - 110 010 Tel. (91-11) 2671-7983 Fax.(91-11) 2615 4191 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.idsa.in Printed at: A.M. Offsetters A-57, Sector-10, Noida-201 301 (U.P.) Tel.: 91-120-4320403 Mob.: 09810888667 E-mail : [email protected] 2 CONTENTS FOREWORD..............................................................................................................................5 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS.........................................................................................................7 PREFACE................................................................................................................................11 CHAPTER I Politics in Pakistan: A Discordant Quartet................................................................. 15 CHAPTER II Provinces of Pakistan: Politics, Militancy and Ethnic Nationalism.................................................................28 CHAPTER III Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: Travails of Uncertainty.....................................................................................................44 CHAPTER IV From Islamisation to Talibanisation: Possible Lebanonisation?................................................................................................58 CHAPTER V The Economy of Pakistan: Structural Weaknesses.....................................................................................................77 CHAPTER VI Civil-Military Relations: Army as the Final Arbiter................................................................................................85 CHAPTER VII Pakistan’s Counter-insurgency Campaign: An Assessment ..................................................................................................................97 CHAPTER VIII Pakistan’s Nuclear & Missile Programmes: On a Short Fuse?......................................................................................107 3 Whither Pakistan? Growing Instability and Implications for India CHAPTER IX Pakistan’s Relations with India: The Unending Quest for Parity..........................................................................................................125 CHAPTER X Pakistan 2020: Possible Scenarios and Options..........................................................................................................135 CHAPTER XI Dealing with An Unstable Pakistan: India’s Options.......................................................................................................................................141 APPENDICES Appendix I Profiles of Some Terror Groups Operating in Pakistan................................................................146 Appendix II The Image of Pakistan in Media..........................................................................................................152 Appendix III Economic Indicators of Pakistan .......................................................................................................155 TASKFORCE MEMBERS...............................................................................................................................156 4 FOREWORD Pakistan has invariably evoked a great deal of interest among India’s strategic affairs community. Because of historical, geographical, economic and cultural linkages, developments in the neighbourhood have important implications for India’s politics, economy and security. This is especially true in the case of Pakistan. Recent developments in Pakistan have been a cause of concern for all the countries concerned about its future. Given the need for better understanding of developments in Pakistan, IDSA launched its Pakistan Project in the year 2009. The project team began its work in March 2009 and has been meeting regularly to discuss various developments in Pakistan. The team has developed through exemplary collaboration its first report on Pakistan. The report was reviewed by a panel of experts in January 2010 and finalized with their inputs and suggestions. The basic argument that flows from the report is that Pakistan is likely to remain unstable because of inherent weaknesses in its political, economic and security policies. The absence of any long-term shared vision of Pakistan, the over-securitization of the state apparatus because of its obsession with India as a threat and an enemy, and the state’s ambivalence towards the phenomenon of Islamic radicalism will keep Pakistan in a state of chronic turmoil. It is necessary therefore to develop a set of policy alternatives to deal with the consequences of an unstable Pakistan, on a long term basis. This report brings to fruition the year-long effort put in by the project team under the leadership of Dr Arvind Gupta, Lal Bahadur Shastri Chair at IDSA. I congratulate the team members on their efforts and am sure that this report will be widely read and appreciated. June 2010 N. S. Sisodia New Delhi Director General, IDSA 5 Whither Pakistan? Growing Instability and Implications for India 6 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AFP Associated Foreign Press ANP Awami National Party BLA Baloch Liberation Army BLUF Baloch Liberation United Front BRA Baloch Republican Army BSO Baloch Students Organisation CAR Central Asian Republics CBM Confidence Building Measures CD Conference on Disarmament CGWIC China Great Wall Industry Corporation CHASNUPP Chashma Nuclear Power Plant CIA Central Intelligence Agency CII Council for Islamic Ideology CJ Chief Justice COIN Counter Insurgency CTBT Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty CZEC China Zhongyuan Engineering Corporation DCC Development Control Committee DG Director General DMG District Management Group ECC Employment Control Committee ERL Engineering Research Laboratories ETIM East Turkestan Islamic Movement FATA Federally Administered Tribal Area FDI Foreign Direct Investment FODP Friends of Democratic Pakistan FSS Fixed Satellite Service FTA Free Trade Agreement G T Road Grand Trunk Road GDP Gross Domestic Product GHQ General Headquarters HGSS Hughes Global Satellite Systems HM Hizbul Mujahideen 7 Whither Pakistan? Growing Instability and Implications for India HuA Harkat-ul-Ansar HuJI Harkat-ul Jihad-e-Islami HuM Harkat-ul-Mujahideen IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IDP Internally Displaced People IJI Islamic Jamhoori Ittihad IJT Islami Jamiat-e-Tulaba IMF International Monetary Fund IRI International Republican Institute ISI Inter-Services Intelligence ISIS Institute for Science and International Security ISPR Inter Services Public Relation IST Institute of Space Technology ITU International Telecommunications Union IWT Indus Water Treaty JAeH Jamaat Ahl-e-Hadis JCSC Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee JeM Jaish-e-Muhammad JI Jamaat-e-Islami JSQM Jiye Sindh Qaumi Mahaz JuA Jamaat-ul-Ansar JuD Jamaat-ud-Dawa JuF Jamaat-ul-Furqan JUI Jamiat-i-Ulema-e-Islam JuM Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen JUP Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan KANUPP Karachi Nuclear Power Plant KKH Karakoram Highway KRL Khan Research Laboratories Kt Kiloton KUI Khuddam-ul-Islam LeJ Lashkar-e-Jhangvi LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba LHC Lahore High Court LoC Line of Control MDI Markaz ud Dawa-wal-Irashad MMA Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal MoU Memorandum of Understanding 8 List of Abbreviations MPA Members of Provincial Assembly MQM Muttahida Quami Movement (previously Mohajir Qaumi Movement) MuD Markaz-ud Dawaa MWe Megawatt electric MWth Megawatt thermal NAP National Awami Party (Precursor of ANP- Awami National Party) NCA National Command Authority NDC National Development Complex NLI Northern Light Infantry NPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NRO National Reconciliation Ordinance NSAP Nuclear Security Action Plan NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group NWFP North-West Frontier Province OIC Organisation of Islamic Conference PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission PAL Permissive Action Links PINSTECH Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology PLA People's Liberation Army PML Pakistan Muslim League PML-N Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz PML-Q Pakistan Muslim League - Quaid PNA Pakistan National Alliance PNRA Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority PPP Pakistan Peoples Party PVPV Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice PWR Pressurized Water Reactor RSSS Remote Sensing Satellite System SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SAFTA South Asian Free Trade Area SASSI South Asia Strategic Stability Institute SC Supreme Court SGCS Satellite Ground Control Stations SLV Satellite Launch Vehicle SNERDI
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