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The International Space Station Commercialization (Issc) Study A POTOMAC INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES REPORT: PIPS- 97- 1 THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION COMMERCIALIZATION (ISSC) STUDY Space Commercialization Experts Panel Mr. James Beggs, Chairman Dr. John McLucas Mr. James Rose Mr. Howard Schue Dr. Terry Straeter Study Director Dr. James Richardson 2O March 1997 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies 1600 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 1200 Arlington, VA 22209 Table of Contents Preface Executive Summary International Space Station Commercialization Study Report Background and Definitions Study Objectives Study Approach Findings and Recommendations A Proposed Implementation Plan Annexes: Annex A. Selected References Annex B. Space Commercialization Experts Panel Terms of Reference Annex C. Record of Discussions and Case Studies Annex D. Bibliography ii PREFACE The Potomac Institute for Policy Studies (the Institute) is a not-for-profit organization dedicated to the development and support of non-partisan analysis of technology and technology policy. The Institute has conducted studies that provide insight into the impact of new technologies on our society, the proper relationship between government and industry, and the future of the U.S. industrial base. The International Space Station Commercialization (ISSC) Study was performed by the Institute, principally under a grant from NASA. Financial support was also provided by the Institute and other companies. We greatly appreciate these contributions, which made possible an interesting and meaningful study. Views expressed are those of the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and are not necessarily endorsed by NASA or the other contributors. We would also like to express gratitude to the more than two hundred people from industry, universities and government, who contributed their time and insights. Their views enriched the study immensely. Our Space Commercialization Experts Panel (SCEP) earned special thanks for guiding the study to fruition, and for helping to develop its findings and recommendations. iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) was created principally from the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA), by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Act of 1958 (ACT). Missions assigned included performing science and exploration and maintaining U.S. superiority in space. Congress amended the ACT in March 1984 to add the responsibility for fostering the fullest commercial use of space. The present Administration, Congress, NASA, and the general public have all voiced support of commercialization of human space flight. The issues are who should do it, how it should be done, and how quickly. The Study The purpose of the study was to address the three questions stated below. Its findings rested upon the assumption that the International Space Station (ISS) will be deployed by NASA within the next six years. I. Are there compelling potential benefits from commercialization of human orbital space flight? 1 II. Are there viable areas of opportunity and plausible commercial ventures? III. What, if any, should be the government’s role in fostering commercialization? 1 “Human space flight” is a term coined to specify those space missions which require human presence in space (“piloted space” is an alternative term). The Space Shuttle and the International Space Station are examples (even if human presence was not required at all times), while satellites are not. The term “orbital human space flight” is used to distinguish earth orbit operations from interplanetary flights. 1 Approach The Institute’s Research Team collected a number of pertinent publications. We summarized and challenged results, adopting those which still seemed appropriate, while adding perspectives of our own. Annex A offers a list of references, cited throughout this report by numbers within square brackets, [ ]. In view of the complex issues, and the number of vantage points from which they may be viewed, we sought extensive counsel, forming the Space Commercialization Experts Panel (SCEP) listed in Table 1. Terms of Reference for the SCEP are presented in Annex B. During the course of the study we contacted over 200 people, representing approximately 50 companies, universities, and government agencies. Names of some of those reached, along with summaries of our discussions and case studies are found in Annex C. A full bibliography collected for the study appears at Annex D. Member Selected Experience Mr. James Beggs, Chairman President, MAKAT, Inc. Former NASA Administrator Former Executive Vice President, General Dynamics Former Deputy Secretary of Transportation Dr. John McLucas Former Chairman, NASA Advisory Council Former President, COMSAT General Former Secretary of Air Force Former Administrator, FAA Mr. James Rose Former Assistant Administrator for NASA’s Commercial Programs Mr. Howard Schue Partner, Technology Strategies and Alliances Corporation Dr. Terry Straeter President and Chief Executive Officer, GDE Systems, Inc. Table 1. Members of Space Commercialization Experts Panel Findings and Recommendations In this section, the three questions in the study objective are addressed. The analysis of the first two questions yields the study findings, while the third produces the study recommendations. Findings on Benefits from Commercialization. Finding: Commercialization through orbital human space flight is beneficial to the nation and to NASA. Assuming that commercial ventures are found to be plausible and practical in orbital space, benefits will accrue on two levels: national benefits, and benefits to NASA’s mission. 2 National Benefits. At least three beneficial areas are evident at the national level. These are discussed below. 1. Enhancement of U.S. industry competitiveness (e.g., U.S. economy, high technology jobs, market shares). There are clearly national economic benefits that transcend NASA’s mission-area interests. Enthusiasm for science and exploration, and the excitement of building world class facilities, such as the International Space Station (ISS), should not lead the U.S. to lose focus on the necessity to compete in the global market place. Our failures to commercially leverage our nation’s superior science and technology in areas such as the television, the VCR, and the compact disc led to large industries and profits -- in Japan. The ISS and other space assets should be used to our advantage, not only for scientific interests, but also for commercial gain. Today, orbital space is the latest in a number of frontiers opened by various transportation systems and infrastructure that were strongly supported by the federal government. The strategies followed in developing the waterways, highways, railways, and airways called for government to foster commercialization at critical times. It is a conclusion of this study that human orbital space flight is approaching such a stage in its development. 2. Spin-offs of new technologies to non-space industries. NASA has maintained an effective technology transfer program. This important facet of NASA’s service to the nation will be enhanced by increasing private sector involvement. 3. National prestige. With the end of the cold war, U.S. prestige depends as much or more upon its economic competitiveness as upon its defensive strength. Commercialization of orbital space will enhance this aspect of our nation’s reputation, as will science, exploration, and technology development sponsored by NASA. NASA Mission Benefits. In addition to these national enhancements, commercialization will directly benefit the conduct of NASA’s mission in at least six areas. 1. Increased availability of improved and more affordable space assets. As commercial traffic increases, space technology will steadily improve and cost less. This has been true in virtually every instance where the private sector has moved into a government domain. Past studies have indicated that it costs government up to three times as much to develop and fabricate equipment through conventional contracts as it does by allowing the private sector to accomplish the same job, using performance specifications and best business practices. Statistics are presented in the body of this report to illustrate how NASA has saved significantly in the past by adopting this approach. 2. Utilization of Shuttle, ISS and Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). The ISS and RLV are both centerpiece programs for NASA, which will ultimately depend upon commercial customers for success. Lead times for space-based activities are long, and if commercial development is to proceed on the same schedule as the ISS, these activities must begin now. The “pump priming” investment required is not large relative to what we will have made in setting up the Shuttle/Space Station system; however, the investment is unlikely to be made by the private sector without Government working with industry to develop users in the commercial sector. 3. Release of NASA resources for application to new frontiers. Whether the next step in space is human exploration of the planets or the launching of scientific instrumentation from the earth’s orbit, NASA is looking ahead to new challenges. These challenges will be easier to pursue if orbital space is “normalized” by commerce. 3 4. Leverage private investment. Our estimates show that more than two billion dollars are either committed or planned by the private sector for human orbital space flight ventures. This private investment and follow-on funding should be leveraged by NASA. 5. Improved innovation and
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