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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. THE COUNTERTERROR COALITIONS Cooperation with Pakistan and India C. Christine Fair Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release, distribution unlimited The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Fair, C. Christine. The counterterror coalitions : cooperation with Pakistan and India / C. Christine Fair. p. cm. “MG-141.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3559-2 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States—Foreign relations—Pakistan. 2. Pakistan—Foreign relations— United States. 3. United States—Foreign relations—India. 4. India—Foreign relations—United States. 5. Jammu and Kashmir (India)—Politics and government. 6. United States—Foreign relations—2001– 7. War on Terrorism, 2001– I.Title. E183.8.P18F35 2004 327.73054'09'0511—dc22 2004005187 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Shortly after the September 11, 2001, attacks, Air Force Chief of Staff General John Jumper asked RAND Project AIR FORCE to conduct a study entitled “Thinking Strategically About Combating Terrorism.” This year-long project was divided into four research tasks, each tackling different but complementary aspects of the coun- terterrorism problem: • Threat assessment: identifying the character and boundaries of the threat • The international dimension: assessing the impact of coalition and other international actors on U.S. options • Strategy: designing an overarching counterterror strategy • Implications for the Air Force: identifying promising applica- tions of air and space power. This report is part of a series on international counterterror co- operation, building on the research of the second project task. Other reports in this series will examine the different functional areas of in- ternational cooperation against terrorism, counterterror cooperation with Russia and the states of the former Soviet Union, and coun- terterror cooperation with the countries of Europe. Although these reports address a wide variety of subjects, they build on a common principle: counterterror cooperation occurs across numerous issue areas, including military, financial, law enforcement, and intelligence. An effective counterterror strategy will need to address each of these iii iv The Counterterror Coalitions: Cooperation with Pakistan and India dimensions and account for some of the synergies and frictions among them. This report details the findings of building counterterrorism coalitions with two important states in South Asia: Pakistan and In- dia. The partnerships with both of these states have been critical to U.S. operations in Afghanistan and beyond, albeit for very different reasons. Specifically, this report examines the following: • Pakistan’s historic and present cooperation with the United States • India’s historic and present cooperation with the United States • The potential of Kashmir to disrupt efforts to engage both India and Pakistan. The final chapter of the report discusses the ways in which the U.S. counterterrorism objectives interact and interfere with other U.S. regional interests. It concludes with five policy options and the advantages and disadvantages inherent in each. Publications to date from the project include: • Nora Bensahel, The Counterterror Coalitions: Cooperation with Europe, NATO, and the European Union, MR-1746-AF • David Ochmanek, Military Operations Against Terrorist Groups Abroad: Implications for the United States Air Force, MR-1738- AF. The research reported here was sponsored by General John Jumper, Chief of Staff of the Air Force, and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program. It was completed in October 2002. Concurrent RAND Project AIR FORCE research is examining the military-to-military aspects of U.S. relations with both Pakistan and India. This report should be of interest to the national security com- munity and those members of the general public concerned with South, Southwest, and Central Asia. Comments are welcome and Preface v should be sent to the author or to the acting program director, Alan Vick. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. Contents Preface....................................................................... iii Figures ...................................................................... xi Summary................................................................... xiii Acknowledgments......................................................... xvii Acronyms .................................................................. xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction.................................................................1 Narratives of Engagement and Implications for This Report ...............3 Preview of the Arguments....................................................4 Pakistan: An Uncertain Partner in the Fight Against Terrorism .........5 India: Long-Term Partner in Counterterrorism ..........................6 Kashmir: The Impediment to U.S. Bilateral Relations with India and Pakistan ................................................................6 CHAPTER TWO Pakistan: An Uncertain Partner in the Fight Against Terrorism ........9 Historical Overview of Pakistan-U.S. Relations ........................... 10 Pakistan and the United States: Divergent Threat Perceptions and Objectives ............................................................ 19 Pakistan’s Contribution to Operation Enduring Freedom and to the War on Terrorism.................................................... 27 Military and Intelligence Support ...................................... 27 Diplomatic Contributions .............................................. 33 vii viii The Counterterror Coalitions: Cooperation with Pakistan and India Law Enforcement and Internal Security Measures ..................... 33 Pakistan’s Strengths, Weaknesses, and Limitations..................... 43 What Does Pakistan Expect from the United States?...................... 54 Human Development and Domestic Stability ......................... 56 Economic and Financial Rehabilitation ................................ 57 Assistance in Fortifying Its Internal Security Arrangements ............ 59 Expanded Military-to-Military Ties .................................... 60 Pakistan Seeks Recognition of Its Regional Equities ................... 61 Summary................................................................... 63 CHAPTER THREE India: Long-Term Partner in Counterterrorism .......................