Exploring the Consequences of Super Typhoons in Asia Dr. Jessica Turner Senior Product Manager, Model Product Management
SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN AT LANDFALL: 306 KPH
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WITH A 5+ METER STORM SURGE
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential RAMMASUN
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WIND HISTORICAL SUPER TYPHOON LANDFALLS
The Philippines has the highest number of super typhoon landfalls.
But other countries have also experienced them.
1959 -- 2011
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WHAT ABOUT THE STRONGEST STORMS?
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential Mean September Maximum potential intensity surface winds (m/s)
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential MODELLING RESULTS: CHINA AND JAPAN
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUPER TYPHOONS
The heat content of the upper ocean in the West Pacific is increasing.
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential SURGE PARTLY DEPENDS ON STORM STRENGTH
Typhoon Vera made landfall as a category 5 in Honshu in 1959 with a 3.45 m surge. Photo: Inae Tram Station, Minato Ku, Nagoya City - September 28, 1959 © Nagoya City Disaster Prevention Management Corporation
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential BUT IT ALSO DEPENDS ON BATHYMETRY
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential SOME HISTORICAL Typhoon Vera (1959) SURGES Peak Surge: 3.5m
Typhoon 5612 (1956) Peak Surge: 5.02m
Typhoon Bart (1999) Peak Surge: 3.5m
Typhoon Doug (1994) Peak Surge: 1.5m
Typhoon Joe (1980) Peak Surge: 5.94m
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WORST CASE MODEL RESULTS: HONG KONG 5.5 7.2
4.8
4.7 4.4
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WORST CASE MODEL RESULTS: JAPAN
5.8
7.1 6.2 7.2
10.0
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential SUMMARY
• Super Typhoons are common
• Even if the highest wind speeds are rare
• Damaging surge is possible without strong winds
©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential