Exploring the Consequences of Super Typhoons in Asia Dr. Jessica Turner Senior Product Manager, Model Product Management

SUPER AT LANDFALL: 306 KPH

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WITH A 5+ METER

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential RAMMASUN

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WIND HISTORICAL SUPER TYPHOON LANDFALLS

The has the highest number of super typhoon landfalls.

But other countries have also experienced them.

1959 -- 2011

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©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential Mean September Maximum potential intensity surface winds (m/s)

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential MODELLING RESULTS: AND JAPAN

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUPER TYPHOONS

The heat content of the upper ocean in the West Pacific is increasing.

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential SURGE PARTLY DEPENDS ON STORM STRENGTH

Typhoon Vera made landfall as a category 5 in in 1959 with a 3.45 m surge. Photo: Inae Tram Station, Minato Ku, City - September 28, 1959 © Nagoya City Disaster Prevention Management Corporation

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential BUT IT ALSO DEPENDS ON BATHYMETRY

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential SOME HISTORICAL (1959) SURGES Peak Surge: 3.5m

Typhoon 5612 (1956) Peak Surge: 5.02m

Typhoon Bart (1999) Peak Surge: 3.5m

Typhoon Doug (1994) Peak Surge: 1.5m

Typhoon Joe (1980) Peak Surge: 5.94m

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WORST CASE MODEL RESULTS: 5.5 7.2

4.8

4.7 4.4

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WORST CASE MODEL RESULTS: JAPAN

5.8

7.1 6.2 7.2

10.0

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential SUMMARY

• Super Typhoons are common

• Even if the highest wind speeds are rare

• Damaging surge is possible without strong winds

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential