Exploring the Consequences of Super Typhoons in Asia Dr. Jessica Turner Senior Product Manager, Model Product Management SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN AT LANDFALL: 306 KPH ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WITH A 5+ METER STORM SURGE ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential RAMMASUN ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WIND HISTORICAL SUPER TYPHOON LANDFALLS The Philippines has the highest number of super typhoon landfalls. But other countries have also experienced them. 1959 -- 2011 ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WHAT ABOUT THE STRONGEST STORMS? ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential Mean September Maximum potential intensity surface winds (m/s) ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential MODELLING RESULTS: CHINA AND JAPAN ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUPER TYPHOONS The heat content of the upper ocean in the West Pacific is increasing. ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential SURGE PARTLY DEPENDS ON STORM STRENGTH Typhoon Vera made landfall as a category 5 in Honshu in 1959 with a 3.45 m surge. Photo: Inae Tram Station, Minato Ku, Nagoya City - September 28, 1959 © Nagoya City Disaster Prevention Management Corporation ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential BUT IT ALSO DEPENDS ON BATHYMETRY ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential SOME HISTORICAL Typhoon Vera (1959) SURGES Peak Surge: 3.5m Typhoon 5612 (1956) Peak Surge: 5.02m Typhoon Bart (1999) Peak Surge: 3.5m Typhoon Doug (1994) Peak Surge: 1.5m Typhoon Joe (1980) Peak Surge: 5.94m ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WORST CASE MODEL RESULTS: HONG KONG 5.5 7.2 4.8 4.7 4.4 ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential WORST CASE MODEL RESULTS: JAPAN 5.8 7.1 6.2 7.2 10.0 ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential SUMMARY • Super Typhoons are common • Even if the highest wind speeds are rare • Damaging surge is possible without strong winds ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential .