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DIALOG AXIATA PLC (DIAL) July, 2017 Accelerating Sri Lanka’S Digital Future, Today!

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DIALOG AXIATA PLC (DIAL) July, 2017 Accelerating Sri Lanka’S Digital Future, Today! ASHA PHILLIP INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH SECURITIES LTDSRI LANKA DIALOG AXIATA PLC (DIAL) July, 2017 Accelerating Sri Lanka’s Digital Future, Today! SRI LANKA | TELECOMMUNICATIONS | INITIATING COVERAGE BUY Amid facing the challenges of diminishing growth in mobile voice operations, CMP RS 12 we believe DIAL would continue to take the market leadership position in TARGET RS 14 (+21%) domestic mobile telecommunications industry with the aid of healthy COMPANY DATA growth potential in Data operations. Strong growth in subscriber base BLOOMBERG TICKER : DIAL:SL stemming from both industry expansion and acquisition of market shares of O/S SHARES (MN) : 8144 MARKET CAP (LKR BN) : 96.91 other small players would strengthen DIAL against the risks of industry MARKET CAP (USD BN) : 0.63 consolidation without the involvement of DIAL. Besides witnessing a slight 52 - WK HI/LO (LKR) : 12.3/ 10.1 LIQUIDITY 1Yr (USD MN) : 0.14 decline in EBITDA margins and Free Cash Flows over FY17-mid 18E, we believe DIAL’s “Build” strategies for data operations would eventually result SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % in “Cash Cows” generating increased cash inflows. Our base case Dec 16 AXIATA INVESTMENTS ( LABUAN): 83.30 assumptions estimate LKR 14.3 per share value for DIAL (compared with the OTHER STRATEGIC HOLDERS : 0.02 current market price of c.LKR 11.8) considering the average of DCF and PUBLIC & OTHERS : 16.68 COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC FLOAT EV/EBITDA evaluations subject to bull and bear cases. FOREIGN INVESTORS : 63 We expect DIAL to grab 9% income CAGR over FY17-19E LOCAL INSTITUTIONAL : 32 LOCAL RETAIL : 5 Enhancing smartphone usage of the country together with Dual-SIM enabled facilities would drive industry penetration to reach 140% levels by FY19E. We believe DIAL PRICE PERFORMANCE, % would further penetrate in to the Sri Lankan mobile telecommunications market 3MTH 1YR DIAL 6.4 2.7 (currently holding c.45%) given its large scale operations and continuously being able ASPI 8.4 -0.2 to bypass its small competitors. Growing corporate sector of the country together S&P SL20 8.2 9.3 Source: APSL Research with increasing per capita income (above USD 5,100 by FY19E) would help DIAL’s fixed business (especially 4G LTE) to post above industry average growth by PRICE VS. ASPI/S&P SL20 strategically challenging domestic Fixed Operations leader SLT. 120% EBITDA margins would bounce to 33% levels by FY19E following a slight DIAL ASPI S&P SL20 decline over FY17-18E 110% We expect c.1pp decline in EBITDA margins over FY17E given higher marketing and networking expenses, Depreciating LKR against USD (worse case we expect a further 100% 4% LKR decline during FY17E) causing substantial Forex losses on USD denominated 90% borrowings. Further there is an increased likelihood of increase in taxes on Data (Increased to c.32% from c.12% during 1Q17) which would cause a severe hit on 80% EBITDA margins of the industry as a whole. 16-May-16 13-Aug-16 10-Nov-16 7-Feb-17 7-May-17 Ongoing large scale CAPEX cycle to end by mid FY18E easing pressures on KEY FINANCIALS Free Cash Flows LKR MN FY17E FY18E FY19E We expect DIAL would reach 30% levels of capital intensity over FY17-mid 18E which Net Revenue 99,935 108,708 119,064 would result in an estimated base case CAPEX figure of c.LKR 62b. We believe DIAL EBIDTA 32,503 36,280 39,887 would be able to generate improved Free-Cash Flows to compensate ongoing higher Net Profit 8,887 9,648 10,585 CAPEX from FY18E onwards. However, we forecast DIAL would continue to operate EPS/LKR 1.09 1.18 1.30 with above 50% levels of Debt-to-Equity ratios enabling progressive dividend pay- PER, x 13.01 11.98 10.92 outs (c.35% for FY16) and necessary investments in data business. P/BV, x 1.95 1.77 1.62 We establish a valuation range of LKR 11-15 for DIAL shares. ROE, % 16% 15% 15% Our base case DCF analysis assuming a post-tax WACC of 10.3% and a conservative Debt/Equity (%) 60% 56% 54% terminal growth of 3% results LKR 14.5 per share intrinsic value. Our alternative base Source: APSL Research case EV/EBITDA evaluation assuming an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.16x estimates LKR Analysts: Sandun Kulathunga 14.2 per share. Adjusting our base case assumptions for potential upsides and [email protected] declines results in a valuation range of LKR11-15 DIAL shares. Nishani Ruwanpathirana [email protected] ASHA PHILLIP INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH SECURITIES LTDSRI LANKA This page intentionally left blank. The detailed report begins from next page. ASHA PHILLIP INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH SECURITIES LTDSRI LANKA TABLE OF CONTENTS DIAL to post 9% revenue CAGR owing to increasing trend of DATA consumption over 17-19E Mobile business to grow at 8% CAGR over FY17-19E 1 Fixed Business to record exponential growth 3 DTV revenue to fluctuate around LKR 6b levels over FY17- 19E 5 Overall EBITDA margins to settle in 33% levels over FY17-21E Improving Mobile Data ARPU to offset declining Voice business 8 Rising marketing and networking costs limit upside potential of EBITDA 9 Relatively low margins of Pay-TV operations (DTV) deteriorate overall profitability 10 DIAL to run with increased CAPEX; Ongoing cycle to end by mid-18 DIAL would stick into progressive dividend policy amid substantial CAPEX cycles 12 Continuous CAPEX requirements would urge to maintain higher levels of debt 13 We establish a valuation range of LKR 11-15 for DIAL shares DCF analysis based on Free-Cash Flows estimates a valuation range of LKR 10.5-14.7 per DIAL share 15 EV/EBITDA valuation arrives at LKR 13.24-15.07 for DIAL shares 17 Appendix 1: COMPANY REVIEW Segmental Analysis 20 Group Structure 21 Governance 22 Shareholding structure 23 Internal Environment Analysis: SWOT 24 Appendix 02: Sri Lankan Telecommunication Industry Sri Lanka: Government and the Telco industry 27 Michael Porter’s Five Forces application 28 Appendix 3: Global Telecommunication Industry Outlook 29 Appendix 4: Indications for Portfolio Construction 30 Appendix 5: Comparison: DIAL vs SLT: Key financial parameters 31 Appendix 6: Financial Statements & Ratios 33 ASHA PHILLIP INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH SECURITIES LTDSRI LANKA DIAL to post 9% revenue CAGR owing to increasing trend of DATA consumption over 17-19E DIAL income breakdown: We expect DIAL would continue to grab the fast growing data market both in Mobile segment continues to dominate revenue generation. terms of Mobile and Fixed categories. Rising smartphone penetration of the country would support DIAL to record volume based growth while improving Segment 2017E 2018E 2019E per capita income levels would expand average data consumption levels and Mobile 85% 85% 84% demand for Dialog TV (DTV) connections. We believe DIAL would secure its Fixed 9% 10% 10% current market leadership position in “Saturated Red-Ocean” mobile voice DTV 6% 6% 6% business through offering a blend of unique value added services. Further we Total 100% 100% 100% believe fixed business (especially data) would gradually increase their income Source: DIAL AR’s, APSL Research contribution with the aid of rising demand for 4G and Wi-Fi facilities by the Note: Reported Mobile Segment includes fast growing business sector of the country. Voice, Data, Digital services, VAS, International Revenue and other income sources DIAL to post 9% revenue CAGR over 17-19E Income/LKR m YoY growth/RHS LKR m 140,000 20% 120,000 100,000 15% 80,000 10% 60,000 40,000 5% 20,000 - 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Source: DIAL AR’s, APSL Research Mobile business to grow at 8% CAGR over FY17-19E DIAL total revenue breakdown Income contribution of Data reflects an We expect DIAL’s mobile business to post c.8% revenue CAGR over FY17-19E upward trend to reach c.45% of total backed by established voice operations and the high growth trajectory of data revenue by FY19E income. We expect DIAL’s mobile business to post c.6.4% subscriber CAGR Source/LKR Bn 2017E 2018E 2019E over FY17-19E in both pre-paid and post-paid lines supported by growing 35 44 54 smartphone penetration and increasing usage of handheld devices. Further, Data* we believe DIAL would be able to slightly increase its mobile segment market Voice & Others 64 65 65 share (in subscriber basis) from 44.6% (in 2015) to 45.3% levels by FY19E. This Data % 35% 40% 45% is backed by effective initiation of attractive additional services while offering customers, the “early mover” advantage. We expect mobile data ARPU to Source: DIAL AR’s, APSL Research match the long term per capita growth of the country while expecting a shift *Data includes both mobile and fixed data income of revenue generation from voice to data causing a slight decline in voice ARPU. DIAL to record a slight increase on mobile market share from c.44.6% in FY15 to c.45.3% in FY19E (Subscriber basis) Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Market 20.32 20.45 22.12 24.38 26.36 28.14 30.01 31.91 DIAL 7.727 8.714 9.539 10.87 11.83 12.72 13.57 14.47 Market Share 38.0% 42.6% 43.1% 44.6% 44.9% 45.2% 45.2% 45.3% Source: DIAL AR’s, TRCSL statistics, APSL Research Page | 1 ASHA PHILLIP INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH SECURITIES LTDSRI LANKA Mobile segment to contribute for more than 80% of group total revenue securing the leadership position in domestic mobile services industry. LKR m Income/LKR m YoY growth/RHS 120,000 18% 16% 100,000 14% 80,000 12% 10% 60,000 8% 40,000 6% 4% 20,000 2% 0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Source: DIAL AR’s, APSL Research Higher cellular penetration and income levels to support voice & VAS business growth Industry wide total local outgoing calls shows a slight incease Amid data being the key driver of growth, we believe voice income (together over 2012-2016 by recording c.2% CAGR.
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