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Hedge Fund Wisdom a Quarterly Publication by Marketfolly.Com Q4 2017 hedge fund wisdom a quarterly publication by marketfolly.com Background: table of contents Each quarter, hedge funds are required to disclose their portfolios to the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) via 13F consensus buy / sell lists: filings. p.02 Most popular trades These filings disclose long U.S. equity positions, American hedge fund portfolios: Depositary Receipts (ADRs), stock options (puts/calls), warrants, as p.06 Baupost Group well as convertible notes. They do not disclose positions in other p.08 Berkshire Hathaway asset classes (such as commodities, currencies, or debt). They also do not reveal foreign market holdings, short sales, or cash positions. p.10 Greenlight Capital p.13 Lone Pine Capital Hedge Fund Wisdom, a quarterly publication by p.15 Appaloosa Management http://www.marketfolly.com, aggregates, updates, and analyzes the p.18 Pershing Square Capital latest portfolios of top hedge funds. This issue reveals portfolio p.20 Maverick Capital holdings as of December 31st, 2017. p.27 Third Point In This Issue: p.29 Blue Ridge Capital p.31 Paulson & Co - Consensus buy & sell lists revealing which stocks were most p.34 Tiger Management popular among these managers p.37 ValueAct Capital - Portfolio updates on 25 prominent hedge funds: data tables, p.39 Bridger Capital expert commentary & historical context on each fund’s moves p.41 Omega Advisors p.45 Coatue Management - Investment thesis summaries on 2 stocks that saw notable p.48 Fairholme Capital hedge fund activity p.50 Tiger Global - To navigate the newsletter, simply click on a page number in p.53 Hound Partners the Table of Contents column on the right to go to that page p.55 SPO Advisory p.57 Glenview Capital Quote of the Quarter: p.60 Viking Global p.63 Farallon Capital p.67 Icahn Capital “As our mentor Julian Robertson used to say, short-selling is p.69 Brave Warrior Advisors a bit like going to the gym. You’re not just going to show up one day p.71 Pennant Capital and become powerful; you have to put in the reps on a consistent basis.” investment thesis summaries ~ Chase Coleman in Tiger Global’s Q4 letter p.74 Brighthouse Financial (BHF) p.79 Ensco (ESV) Next Page: Consensus Buy/Sell Lists 1 Q4 2017 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Hedge Fund Consensus Buy List Consensus New Buys Time Warner (TWX): During the fourth quarter, funds like Greenlight Capital, Viking Global, and Baupost Group all established new TWX positions. The company is being acquired by AT&T (T), pending regulatory approval. The Department of Justice, however, has sued to block the deal. Bulls feel that the government doesn’t have a strong argument to block it, as there isn’t much precedent. And if by chance the deal is blocked, bulls say the stock is cheap on a valuation basis and could also be a takeover target for other companies. Aetna (AET): Merger arbitrage names were definitely favored by hedge funds this quarter. Arbitrage specialists such as Farallon Capital and Paulson & Co both show new positions in AET, as do other funds like Third Point. The company is set to be acquired by CVS Caremark (CVS), pending regulatory approval. Comcast (CMCSA): Shares of this cable giant fell during the quarter, allowing investors such as Tiger Management, Pennant Capital, and Appaloosa Management to build positions at fair valuations. The company is comprised of a TV and internet provider (Comcast Xfinity), a content unit (NBC Universal), and a theme parks unit (Universal Studios). While a decent number of funds were actively acquiring shares, it should be noted that some big names were also out liquidating their positions (like Lone Pine Capital and Farallon Capital). Lowes (LOW): This home improvement store chain was purchased by the likes of Tiger Management, Greenlight Capital, and Viking Global. As the economy has recovered and household formation turns a corner, the company is benefiting from an increase in consumers buying appliances, as well as maintaining and renovating their homes. LOW’s prime competitor, Home Depot (HD), has long been considered the better operator in the space, but LOW shares perked up in the second half of 2017. Consensus Increase List Q4 2017 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 2 Hedge Fund Consensus Increase List Consensus Increased Positions Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD): Firms including Farallon Capital, Maverick Capital, Viking Global, and Lone Pine Capital increased their allocations to this global beer giant during the quarter. From October to the end of the year, BUD traded down from $124 to $110 and has recently fallen further to $106. While the threat of craft beer stealing market share has been real, BUD has unprecedented scale in the industry and has simply bought out craft brewers in response. Apple (AAPL): This stock graces this list for the second consecutive quarter. This time around, Maverick Capital, Appaloosa, and Berkshire Hathaway all acquired more shares. That last firm made the most noteworthy buy, as AAPL is now Warren Buffett’s largest holding. The company recently benefited from the tax cuts and tax repatriation holiday that was passed, which allows the company to bring back $250+ billion of its overseas cash to invest in the business, pay dividends, and buyback even more stock. That definitely seems to be a large portion of the bull thesis now. Parsley Energy (PE): The vast majority of funds in this newsletter haven’t had a ton of energy exposure on the long side over the past year. This quarter, though, Omega Advisors, Third Point, and Viking Global all more acquired PE shares. Monsanto (MON): Shares of this agricultural giant were accumulated by Paulson & Co, Farallon Capital, and Berkshire Hathaway during the fourth quarter. The company is merging with Bayer in a $63 billion deal that was announced over a year ago. It’s been going through the regulatory gauntlet as of late, with the European Union delaying its ruling until March. Bayer is offering various additional concessions in order to appease regulators. Consensus Sell List Q4 2017 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 3 Hedge Fund Consensus Sell List Consensus Sold Positions Bank of America (BAC): After generating solid gains on their positions by betting on the banking giant benefiting from a healthier economy and a rising interest rate environment, funds that took profits and exited stage left included Third Point and Viking Global, among others. Newell Brands (NWL): Hedge funds such as Maverick Capital and Viking Global dumped their positions in Newell Brands during the fourth quarter. After acquiring Jarden, Newell management hasn’t integrated the businesses as well as investors hoped and the company’s performance and share price has suffered because of it. An activist investor (Starboard Value) recently emerged to try and get the company back on track by working with former Jarden executives. T-Mobile (TMUS): Funds including Lone Pine Capital and Third Point liquidated their exposure to T-Mobile. Shares drifted and churned sideways and down most of 2017. Hopes of a merger with Sprint (S) came and went and now the company continues its march as a standalone company focused on taking share from the two large incumbents AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). Part of the bull thesis has always been that TMUS would be an acquisition target for someone, but the question is who? Other wireless companies, cable companies, or even tech firms have all been rumored suitors, but nothing concrete has materialized, at least not yet. * C.R. Bard (BCR): This stock no longer trades as Becton Dickinson (BDX) acquired the company in a $24 billion deal. As such, funds no longer show a position in the company. Consensus Decrease List Q4 2017 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 4 Hedge Fund Consensus Decrease List Consensus Decreased Positions Facebook (FB): This is the third consecutive quarter this stock lands on this list as funds like Tiger, Bridger Capital, Blue Ridge Capital, Farallon, Maverick, Viking, Lone Pine, and Coatue all take some profits and reduce their swelled position sizes. The company has been a monster as it takes online advertising market share, but it has been in the political crosshairs a bit lately, and bears point to regulatory threat as one of the biggest risks associated with the name. Alibaba Group (BABA): The Chinese e-commerce giant shows up on this list most likely due to its huge year. In 2017, BABA shares traded up well over 85%. So when funds see their position sizes practically double in a short timeframe, risk management practices kick-in and some profits are taken. Tiger, Maverick, Tiger Global, Coatue, Third Point, and Lone Pine all reduced their allocations to BABA. Microsoft (MSFT): If you haven’t yet noticed a theme, hedge funds were locking in gains in their profitable technology positions during the fourth quarter. Funds that trimmed their MSFT stakes include Tiger, Omega, Farallon, Viking, Lone Pine, and Tiger Global. Alphabet (GOOG): Continuing with the tech stock trimming theme, Alphabet was reduced by the likes of Tiger, Farallon, Maverick, Appaloosa, and Coatue during the fourth quarter. IQVIA (IQV): This is the new company that was formed when IMS Health and Quintiles merged. Some funds were playing the merger arbitrage angle, while others were long for the business fundamentals. Either way, Farallon, Lone Pine, Glenview Capital, and Brave Warrior Advisors all reduced their exposure to the newly combined company. Next: Hedge Fund Portfolios (Baupost Group) Q4 2017 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 5 Seth Klarman Baupost Group Graduated from Harvard Business School & regarded as one of the best investors of all time View Seth Klarman’s Recommended Reading List Key Takeaways discerning eye on. This is very much a fluid New Positions: situation.
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