Jämförelse Mellan Löfven & Kristofersson Som Statsminister…

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Jämförelse Mellan Löfven & Kristofersson Som Statsminister… SKOP Rapport från SKOP 22 augusti 2018 Jämförelse mellan Stefan Löfven och Ulf Kristersson - kommentar av SKOP:s Örjan Hultåker Inför valrörelsen: - Ulf Kristersson behåller en klar ledning över Stefan Löfven i SKOP:s skicklighetsliga - Det är Sverigedemokraterna som korar ledaren - 87 procent av Sd-sympatisörerna tror att Ulf Kristersson är skickligast - Stefan Löfven leder SKOP:s trevlighetsliga Det visar SKOP:s opinionsserie över hur svenska folket uppfattar de ledande statsministerkandi- daterna. Under perioden mellan den 20 juni och den 21 juli 2018 intervjuades cirka 1.200 personer i åldern 18 till 84 år. Ulf Kristersson behåller en klar ledning över Stefan Löfven i SKOP:s skicklighetsliga SKOP frågar svenska folket, ”Vem tror Du är skickligast på att leda en regering? Är det statsminis- ter Stefan Löfven eller Moderaternas partiledare Ulf Kristersson?” Vem tror Du är skickligast på att leda en regering? Är det statsminister Stefan Löfven eller Moderaternas partiledare Ulf % Kristersson? 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Borgerlig - M, L, C, Kd Rödgrön - S, V, Mp Sverigedemokrat Ulf Kristersson skickligast Stefan Löven skickligast – Moderatledaren Ulf Kristersson (56,0 procent) behåller en klar ledning över Stefan Löfven (44,0 procent) i SKOP:s skicklighetsliga, konstaterar SKOP:s analytiker docent Örjan Hultåker; Tabell 1. Han leder nu stort med 12 procentenheter. SKOP, Engelbrektsgatan 13, 114 32 Stockholm, telefon 08-587 978 00, e-post: [email protected] SKOP Jämförelse mellan Stefan Löfven Ulf Kristersson 5 juli 2018 Det är Sverigedemokraterna som korar ledaren Enligt Örjan Hultåker är det Sverigedemokraternas sympatisörer som korar ledaren. Av Sverige- demokraternas sympatisörer är det 82 procent som tror att Ulf Kristersson är skickligast. – Inom de egna blocken är båda statsministerkandidaterna populära. I det rödgröna blocket anser 92 procent att Stefan Löfven är skickligast. Inom den borgerliga alliansen är det 89 procent som svarar att Ulf Kristersson är skickligast. – Inom vardera blocket finns det dock ett parti vars sympatisörer är mindre benägna att sluta upp bakom respektive statsministerkandidat. – Av Centerpartiets sympatisörer är det ”bara” 72 procent som tror att Ulf Kristersson är skick- ligast, 28 procent ger högre betyg till Stefan Löfven. – Inom det rödgröna blocket är det Miljöpartiets sympatisörer som är minst övertygade om Stefan Löfvens skicklighet även om enigheten är större än bland de borgerliga. Det är 14 procent av Miljöpartiets sympatisörer som tror att Ulf Kristersson är skickligast, 86 procent tror att det är Stefan Löfven. Vem tror Du är skickligast på att leda en regering? Är det statsminister Stefan Löfven eller Moderaternas partiledare Ulf % Kristersson? 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 M L C Kd S V Mp Ulf Kristersson skickligast Stefan Löven skickligast Stefan Löfven leder i trevlighetsligan SKOP frågade också, ”Om Du blev bjuden på fest. Skulle Du då ha trevligast och roligast om Du satt vid samma bord som Stefan Löfven eller som Ulf Kristersson?” En majoritet (52,1 procent) tror att det är trevligast och roligast med Stefan Löfven, 47,9 föredrar Ulf Kristersson; Tabell 2. 2 SKOP Jämförelse mellan Stefan Löfven Ulf Kristersson 5 juli 2018 Vem tror Du är skickligast på att leda en regering? Är det statsminister Stefan Löfven eller Moderaternas partiledare Ulf Kristersson? tom jan 2012 Stefan Löfvens företrädare, tom juli 2017 Ulf Kristerssons företrädare % 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 jun dec jun nov maj dec jun dec jun dec jun dec aug dec jun nov jun dec jun dec jun okt jan mar maj jun 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 jul 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 jul 16 jul 17 feb apr jun jul 11 16 17 18 18 18 18 Ulf Kristersson/Anna Kinberg Batra/Fredrik Reinfeldt Stefan Löfven/Håkan Juholt/Mona Sahlin Om Du blev bjuden på fest. Skulle Du då ha trevligast och roligast om Du satt vid samma bord som Stefan Löfven eller som Ulf Kristersson? % tom jan 2012 Stefan Löfvens företrädare, tom juli 2017 Ulf Kristerssons företrädare 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 jun dec jun nov maj dec jun dec jun dec jun dec aug dec jun nov jun dec jun dec jun okt jan mar maj jun 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 jul 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 jul 16 jul 17 feb apr jun jul 11 16 17 18 18 18 18 Ulf Kristersson/Anna Kinberg Batra/Fredrik Reinfeldt Stefan Löfven/Håkan Juholt/Mona Sahlin 3 SKOP Jämförelse mellan Stefan Löfven Ulf Kristersson 5 juli 2018 Metodbeskrivning Under perioden mellan den 20 juni och den 21 juli 2018 intervjuades ett representativt urval i åldern 18-84 år som var bosatta i hela riket. Basen i urvalet hämtades från befolkningsregistret. Undersökningen genomförs enligt metoden tele-SKOP, vilket innebär en kombination av intervjuer genom postala enkäter och telefon samt en mindre andel från SKOP:s webbpanel som rekryterats slumpmässigt ur befolkningsregistret. Svaren har viktats så att webbintervjuerna svarar för en tredjedel av svaren. Förändringar mellan två mätperioder skall tolkas med stor försiktighet om de inte är statistiskt säkerställda. Av störst intresse är de trendmässiga förändringarna. Metodbeskrivning för tele-SKOP riks juni/juli finns på www.skop.se. 4 SKOP Jämförelse mellan Stefan Löfven Ulf Kristersson 5 juli 2018 Tabell 1: Vem tror Du är skickligast på att leda en regering? Procent Är det statsminister Stefan Löfven eller Moderaternas partiledare Ulf Kristersson? (tom jan 2012 Håkan Juholt/Mona Sahlin, tom juli 2017 Fredrik Reinfeldt/Anna Kinberg Batra) Juni Maj Mar Jan Okt Juni Dec Juni Dec Juni Nov Juni Dec juli juni apr febr 2017 juli 2016 juli 2015 2015 2014 2014 2013 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017 2016 Ulf Kristersson 56,0 56,2 52,0 54,2 49,8 42,6 50,1 54,9 52,7 46,9 67,6 57,5 57,3 Stefan Löfven 44,0 43,8 48,0 45,8 50,2 57,4 49,9 45,1 47,3 53,1 32,4 42,5 42,7 Antal svar 1 119 1 150 1 300 1 286 990 1 212 788 871 765 813 930 881 908 Grupptabell, juni/juli 2018 Andel som svarar Antal Ulf Kristersson Stefan Löfven svar Kön Kvinna 52 48 530 Man 59 41 589 Ålder 18 - 34 år 56 44 138 35 - 54 år 59 41 297 55 - 74 år 52 48 532 75 - 84 år 61 39 136 Utbildning 9 år eller mindre 56 44 167 10-12 år 57 43 305 13+ år, ej akademisk examen 62 38 228 Akademisk examen 51 49 402 Facklig tillhörighet LO 43 57 151 TCO 54 46 152 SACO 42 58 128 Arbetar inom Privat sektor 67 33 383 Offentlig sektor 40 60 240 Företagare Egen företagare 81 19 93 Rikspolitiskt block Borgerlig - M, Fp, C, Kd 89 11 421 Rödgrön - S, V, Mp 8 92 405 Rikspolitisk sympati Moderaterna 96 4 224 Liberalerna 93 7 53 Centern 72 28 103 Kristdemokraterna 90 10 41 Socialdemokraterna 8 92 281 Vänsterpartiet 7 93 93 Miljöpartiet 14 86 31 Sverigedemokraterna 87 13 212 Feministiskt initiativ 18 82 11 Fet stil: Signifikant skillnad inom gruppen (med 95% sannolikhet). 5 SKOP Jämförelse mellan Stefan Löfven Ulf Kristersson 5 juli 2018 Tabell 2: Om Du blev bjuden på fest. Procent Skulle Du då ha trevligast och roligast om Du satt vid samma bord som Stefan Löfven eller som Ulf Kristersson? (tom jan 2012 Håkan Juholt/Mona Sahlin, tom juli 2017 Fredrik Reinfeldt/Anna Kinberg Batra) Juni Maj Mar Jan Okt Juni Dec Juni Dec Juni Nov Juni Dec juli juni apr febr 2017 juli 2016 juli 2015 2015 2014 2014 2013 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017 2016 Ulf Kristersson 47,9 47,2 46,6 50,2 46,3 43,3 46,0 50,6 52,3 44,9 55,2 46,3 46,8 Stefan Löfven 52,1 52,8 53,4 49,8 53,7 56,7 54,0 49,4 47,7 55,1 44,8 53,7 53,2 Antal svar 1 096 1 132 1 279 1 244 795 1 212 772 872 756 838 914 838 893 Grupptabell, juni/juli 2018 Andel som svarar Antal Ulf Kristersson Stefan Löfven svar Kön Kvinna 46 54 509 Man 49 51 587 Ålder 18 - 34 år 42 58 138 35 - 54 år 49 51 291 55 - 74 år 48 52 520 75 - 84 år 53 47 132 Utbildning 9 år eller mindre 48 52 164 10-12 år 48 52 298 13+ år, ej akademisk examen 52 48 220 Akademisk examen 45 55 398 Facklig tillhörighet LO 36 64 149 TCO 46 54 150 SACO 40 60 127 Arbetar inom Privat sektor 55 45 378 Offentlig sektor 36 64 233 Företagare Egen företagare 65 35 94 Rikspolitiskt block Borgerlig - M, Fp, C, Kd 72 28 417 Rödgrön - S, V, Mp 14 86 392 Rikspolitisk sympati Moderaterna 81 19 220 Liberalerna 58 42 55 Centern 56 44 102 Kristdemokraterna 83 17 40 Socialdemokraterna 13 87 270 Vänsterpartiet 6 94 91 Miljöpartiet 37 63 31 Sverigedemokraterna 75 25 211 Feministiskt initiativ 13 87 11 Fet stil: Signifikant skillnad inom gruppen (med 95% sannolikhet). 6 .
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