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[MERITZ Strategy Daily:[전략공감 2.0] 승자독식사회와 4차

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[MERITZ Strategy Daily:[전략공감 2.0] 승자독식사회와 4차 2016. 9. 28 (수) Strategy Idea 승자독식사회와 4차 산업혁명 오늘의 차트 리보금리의 나비효과: 리보금리와 위안화 칼럼의 재해석 해외 편의점의 중국 지방도시 도전 동 자료는 작성일 현재 사전고지와 관련한 사항이 없습니다. 당사는 동 자료에 언급된 종목과 계열회사의 관계가 없으며 2016년 9월 28일 현재 동 자료에 언급된 종목의 유가증권(DR, CB, IPO, 시장조성 등) 발행 관련하여 지난 6개월 간 주간사로 참여하지 않았습니다. 당사는 2016년 9월 28일 현재 동 자료에 언급된 종목의 지분을 1%이상 보유하고 있지 않습니다. 당사의 조사분석 담당자는 2016년 9월 28일 현재 동 자료에 언급된 종목의 지분을 보유하고 있지 않습니다. 본 자료에 게재된 내용들은 본인의 의견을 정확하게 반영하고 있으며, 외부의 부당한 압력이나 간섭없이 작성되었음을 확인합니다. (작성자: 투자전략팀) 동 자료는 금융투자회사 영업 및 업무에 관한 규정 중 제 2장 조사분석자료의 작성과 공표에 관한 규정을 준수하고 있음을 알려드립니다. 동 자료는 투자자들의 투자판단에 참고가 되는 정보제공을 목적으로 배포되는 자료입니다. 동 자료에 수록된 내용은 당사 리서치센터의 추정치로서 오차가 발생할 수 있으며 정확성이나 완벽성은 보장하지 않습니다. 동 자료는 과거의 자료를 기초로 한 투자참고 자료로서 향후 주가 움직임은 과거의 패턴과 다를 수 있습니다. 동 자료를 이용하시는 분은 동 자료와 관련한 투자의 최종 결정은 자신의 판단으로 하시기 바랍니다. 2016년 9월 28일(수) MERITZ Strategy Daily 전략공감 2.0 Strategy Idea 승자독식사회와 4차 산업혁명 ▲ 글로벌전략 4차 산업혁명으로 승자독식사회 강화: 소득불균형 심화, 거대기업의 아웃퍼폼 지속 Analyst 이수정 02. 6098-6660 특징 1) 1등의 시장 독식: NAVER 롱/카카오 숏 논리 [email protected] 특징 2) 4차 산업혁명은 기존 기술의 통합으로 시작: 산업 간 경계 파괴, 통폐합 가속화 1 등 독식 경제 전세계 소득불평등 심화 한국의 ‘금수저∙흙수저’ 논란, 브렉시트 국민 투표 가결, 트럼프 지지율 약진은 중 상위 1%의 승자독식사회 산층 이하의 불안과 분노가 표출된 결과다. ‘OECD 소득 분배와 빈곤 보고서’에 따 르면 상위 1%의 소득이 전체 소득에서 차지하는 비중은 1981년 평균 6.5%에서 2012년 9.7%로 높아졌다. 특히 미국∙영국 등 영어권 국가와 한국에서 소득불평등 심화가 뚜렷했다. 유럽∙일본에 비해 순수시장경제에 가까운 ‘작은 정부’를 지향했기 때문이다. 『21세기 자본론』의 저자 피케티는 최고소득세율 인하와 상위 1%의 소득 증가가 강한 상관관계를 갖고 있다고 주장했다. 실제로 유럽은 막대한 자본 소득이 불평등을 낳지만 미국은 자본과 상속보다는 막대한 노동소득이 불평등의 주요 원인이 되고 있다. 그림1 국가별 소득불평등 수준: 소득 상위 1% 읶구의 소득 점유율 추이(1886~2015년) (%) 미국 영국 독읷 프랑스 읷본 한국 중국 25 1929년 미국 대공황 1936년 케읶즈 『읷반이롞』 출간 20 1991년 소련 붕괴, '작은 정부' 시대 개막 15 10 5 0 1946 1974 1890 1894 1898 1902 1906 1910 1914 1918 1922 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 1886 주: 데이터 부재 구간 시계열 중단 자료: The World Wealth and Income Database(Facundo Alvaredo, Tony Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman), 메리츠종금증권 리서치센터 Meritz Research 2 2016년 9월 28일(수) MERITZ Strategy Daily 전략공감 2.0 그림2 영어권 국가 소득 상위 1% 읶구의 소득 점유율(1912~2012년) 그림3 유럽/읷본 소득 상위 1% 읶구의 소득 점유율(1900~2012년) 독읷 스위스 포르투갈 (%) 미국 영국(가구) (%) 읷본 이탈리아 스페읶 영국(성읶) 캐나다 프랑스 핀란드 스웨덴 25 30 아읷랜드 호주 덴마크 네덜란드 뉴질랜드(가구) 25 20 20 15 U자 곡선 L자 곡선 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 '12 '19 '26 '33 '40 '47 '54 '61 '68 '75 '82 '89 '96 '03 '10 '00 '08 '16 '24 '32 '40 '48 '56 '64 '72 '80 '88 '96 '04 '12 자료: The World Wealth and Income Database(Facundo Alvaredo, Tony 자료: The World Wealth and Income Database(Facundo Alvaredo, Tony Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman), 메리츠종 Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman), 메리츠종 금증권 리서치센터 금증권 리서치센터 그림4 주요 국가 세후 소득불평등(지니계수) 순위 (지니계수) 소득불평등(세젂) 소득불평등(세후) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 한국 미국 영국 호주 대맊 독읷 읷본 폴란드 캐나다 그리스 스페읶 핀란드 스웨덴 덴마크 스위스 이스라엘 노르웨이 아읷랜드 네덜란드 오스트리아 룩셈부르크 슬로바키아 자료: Luxembourg Income Study(LIS), Max Roser, 메리츠종금증권 리서치센터 기업 간에도 승자독식논리 심화 경쟁에서 승리한 자가 대부분의 과실을 점유하는 승자독식 추세는 개인뿐만 아니 최근 글로벌 거대기업 부상 라 기업 간에도 심화되고 있다. 9월 17일자 이코노미스트지는 ‘거인들의 그늘(In the shadow of giants)’이라는 제목으로 글로벌 거대기업의 부상을 다뤘다. 다국 적 대기업이 플랫폼을 지배하며 몸집을 계속 불리고 있고, 스스로가 자유시장경제 의 산물임에도 불구하고 경쟁 자체를 위축시키고 있다는 비판이다. 2012년 ‘작은 것은 아름답지 않다(Small is not beautiful)’는 제목으로 규제에 안주하는 유럽 중 소기업을 비판하고 ‘규모의 경제’를 설파했던 것과 대조적이다. Meritz Research 3 2016년 9월 28일(수) MERITZ Strategy Daily 전략공감 2.0 소수 상위 기업에 대한 페이팔 창업자인 피터 틸은 ‘경쟁은 루저들(losers)의 것이다. 경쟁하지 말고 독점 전체 시장 의존도 상승 하라’고 역설했다. 그의 주문대로 글로벌 시장에서 소수 상위 기업의 존재감은 점 차 확대되고 있다. PwC의 세계 시가총액 100대 기업 조사에 따르면 규모가 1,000억 달러 이하인 기업 수는 2009년 73개에서 2016년 33개로 감소했다. 반 면 시가총액이 3,000억 달러가 넘는 기업 수는 2009년 1개에서 2016년 6개로 증가했다. 올해 신흥국에서도 MSCI EM 지수 상위 4개 기업인 텐센트 홀딩스, TSMC, 삼성전자, 알리바바가 시장 상승을 견인했다. IPO 대신 M&A 가 늘어나는 것 IPO 대신 M&A가 늘어나는 현상도 승자독식사회를 강화시킨다. 실리콘밸리에서 승자독식사회의 현상 는 ‘유명 기업에 인수되는 것’이 스타트업의 성공의 척도가 되면서 IPO가 줄어들 었다. IT 공룡 기업들은 적극적인 M&A를 통해 핵심기술을 확보하고 몸집을 키우 고 있다. 스타트업에 R&D 하청을 주는 셈이다. 그림5 MSCI EM 지수 상위 기업 4개 YTD 주가 추이 ('16.01.01=100) 텐센트 홀딩스 타이완 반도체 제조 삼성젂자 알리바바 그룹 홀딩 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 '16.1 '16.2 '16.3 '16.4 '16.5 '16.6 '16.7 '16.8 '16.9 자료: Bloomberg, 메리츠종금증권 리서치센터 그림6 The Economist 2012년 3월 3읷자 그림7 The Economist 2016년 9월 17읷자 표지 자료: The Economist 자료: The Economist Meritz Research 4 2016년 9월 28일(수) MERITZ Strategy Daily 전략공감 2.0 표1 2014년 이후 알파벳의 기업 읶수 목록 읶수 날짜 기업명 사업 영역 읶수 가격(백맊달러) 홗용 부문 1 2014-01-04 Bitspin Timely App for Android — Android 2 2014-01-13 Nest Labs Home automation 3,200 Nest Labs 3 2014-01-15 Impermium Internet security — Project Zero (Google) 4 2014-01-26 DeepMind Technologies Artificial intelligence 625 Google DeepMind 5 2014-02-16 SlickLogin Internet Security — Project Zero (Google) 6 2014-02-21 spider.io Anti-click fraud — DoubleClick, Adsense 7 2014-03-12 GreenThrottle Gadgets — Android 8 2014-04-14 Titan Aerospace High-altitude UAVs — Project Loon 9 2014-05-02 Rangespan E-commerce — Google Shopping 10 2014-05-06 Adometry Online advertising attribution — Google Analytics AdSense 11 2014-05-07 Appetas Restaurant website creation — Zagat 12 2014-05-07 Stackdriver Cloud computing — Google Cloud Platform 13 2014-05-07 MyEnergy Online energy usage monitoring — Nest Labs 14 2014-05-16 Quest Visual Augmented reality — Google Translate 15 2014-05-19 Divide Mobile device management — Android for Work 16 2014-06-10 Skybox Imaging Satellite 500 Google Maps, Project Loon 17 2014-06-19 mDialog Online advertising — DoubleClick 18 2014-06-19 Alpental Technologies Wireless — Google 19 2014-06-20 Dropcam Home monitoring 555 Nest Labs 20 2014-06-25 Appurify Automated application testing — Android 21 2014-07-01 Songza Music streaming — Google Play, Android TV 22 2014-07-23 drawElements Graphics compatibility testing — Android 23 2014-08-06 Emu IM client — Google Hangouts, Google Now 24 2014-08-06 Director Mobile video — YouTube, Android 25 2014-08-17 Jetpac Artificial intelligence, image recognition — Picasa 26 2014-08-23 Gecko Design Design — X 27 2014-08-26 Zync Render Cloud-based visual effects software — Google Cloud Platform 28 2014-09-10 Lift Labs Liftware — Verily 29 2014-09-11 Polar Social polling — Google+ 30 2014-10-21 Firebase Data synchronization — Google Cloud Platform 31 2014-10-23 Dark Blue Labs Artificial intelligence £tens of millions Google DeepMind 32 2014-10-24 Revolv Home automation Nest Labs 33 2014-11-19 RelativeWave Mobile software prototyping — Android 34 2014-12-17 Vidmaker Video editing — YouTube 35 2015-02-04 Launchpad Toys Child-friendly apps — YouTube for Kids 36 2015-02-08 Odysee Multimedia sharing and storage — Google+ 37 2015-02-23 Softcard Mobile payments — Android Pay 38 2015-02-24 Red Hot Labs App advertising and discovery — Google Play 39 2015-04-16 Thrive Audio Surround sound technology — Google Cardboard 40 2015-04-16 Tilt Brush 3D painting — Google Cardboard 41 2015-05-04 Timeful Mobile software — Google Inbox, Google Calendar 42 2015-05-28 Pulse.io Mobile app optimizer — Android 43 2015-07-21 Pixate Mobile software prototyping --- Android 44 2015-09-21 Oyster E-book subscriptions — Google Play Books 45 2015-09-30 Jibe Mobile Rich Communication Services — Android 46 2015-06-18 Agawi Mobile application streaming — Android, Google Play 47 2015-10-17 Digisfera 360-degree photography — Street View 48 2015-11-11 Fly Labs Video editing — Google Photos 49 2015-11-11 bebop Cloud software 380 Google Cloud Platform 50 2016-02-18 Pie Enterprise communications — Spaces (app) 51 2016-05-02 Synergyse Interactive tutorials — Google Docs 52 2016-06-22 Webpass Internet service provider — Google Fiber 53 2016-07-06 Moodstocks Image recognition — Google Photos 54 2016-07-08 Anvato Cloud-based video services — Google Cloud Platform 55 2016-07-12 Kifi Link management — Spaces (app) 56 2016-07-27 LaunchKit Mobile tool maker — Android 57 2016-08-08 Orbitera Cloud software 100 Google Cloud Platform 58 2016-09-08 Apigee API management and predictive analytics 625 Google Cloud Platform 59 2016-09-15 Urban Engines Location based analytics — Google Maps 자료: Wikipedia, 메리츠종금증권 리서치센터 Meritz Research 5 2016년 9월 28일(수) MERITZ Strategy Daily 전략공감 2.0 표2 2012년 이후 애플의 기업 읶수 목록 읶수 날짜 기업명 사업 영역 읶수 가격(백맊달러) 홗용 부문 1 2012-02-23 Chomp App search engine 50 App Store 2 2012-06-02 Redmatica Audio — Logic Pro 3 2012-07-27 AuthenTec PC and mobile security products 356 Touch ID 4 2012-09-27 Particle HTML5 Web app firm — iCloud, iAd 5 2013년 Novauris Technologies Speech recognition — Siri 6 2013년 OttoCat Search engine — App Store 7 2013-03-23 WiFiSlam Indoor location 20 Maps 8 2013-07-19 Locationary Maps — Maps 9 2013-07-19 HopStop.com Maps — Maps 10 2013-08-01 Passif Semiconductor Semiconductors — Apple SOC 11 2013-08-13 Matcha Media discovery app — — 12 2013-08-22 Embark Maps — Maps 13 2013-08-28 AlgoTrim Data compression — — 14 2013-10-03 Cue Personal assistant 50 — 15 2013-11-24 PrimeSense Semiconductors 345 — 16 2013-12-02 Topsy Analytics 200 — 17 2013-12-23 BroadMap Maps — Maps 18 2013-12-23 Catch.com Software — — 19 2013-12-01 Acunu Database analytics — — 20 2014-01-04 SnappyLabs Photography software — Camera 21 2014-02-21 Burstly Software — App Testing and Distribution 22 2014-05-02 LuxVue Technology micro-LED displays — — 23 2014-06-06 Spotsetter Social search engine — Maps 24 2014-06-29 Swell Music streaming 30 iTunes 25 2014-06-29 BookLamp Software — iBooks 26 2014-08-01 Beats Electronics Headphones, music streaming(Beats Music) 3,000 iPhone, iTunes 27 2014-09-23 Prss Digital magazine — — 28 2014년 Dryft Keyboard App — — 29 2015-01-01 Camel Audio Audio — Logic Pro 30 2015-01-21 Semetric Music analytics 50 iTunes Radio, Beats Music 31 2015-03-24 FoundationDB Database — iCloud 32 2015-04-14 LinX Camera 20 iPod, iPhone, iPad 33 2015-04-01 Coherent Navigation
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