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Asia Technology Strategy China: Can It Gain Tech Independence?

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Asia Technology Strategy China: Can It Gain Tech Independence? 4 November 2019 Equity Research Asia Pacific Asia Technology Strategy China: Can it gain tech independence? Technology | Strategy CIC Special Figure 1: China tech net trade (imports minus exports) waterfall, 2018 (USD bn) The Credit Suisse China Investment Conference 250 (CIC) is one of the most exclusive business 126 gatherings in the Greater China region, bringing together business leaders and entrepreneurs from 200 around the region, as well as global institutional and private investors. This year, the Credit Suisse China 150 Investment Conference will explore the theme of 80 ‘Great Expectations’ – a topic that embraces the 100 continued progression of China and the ( 141 ) advancement of some of the country’s most 50 dynamic companies against the current geopolitical ( 36 ) 8 11 12 ( 25 ) ( 3 ) and macroeconomic backdrop. - Research Analysts (52) (20) (50) Manish Nigam SPE Display Semi- Semi/IC ex Mobile Telecom Display Printed Passive Others Total Tech 852 2101 7067 Equip Memory Memory Handset Equipment Circuits Component Net Imports [email protected] Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse estimates Randy Abrams, CFA ■ Tech is the largest Chinese import; localization a national priority. Technology 886 2 2715 6366 sector forms the largest part of China's import basket (21%) and semiconductors account [email protected] for 70% of all its tech imports. This is despite the fact that China's own production of Keon Han semiconductors has grown at a 20% CAGR since 2011. This heavy dependence on 82 2 3707 3740 technology imports has led to several policy initiatives since 2000 from the Chinese [email protected] government to help grow the domestic technology industry for multiple reasons including Kyna Wong national security, assured supply availability, and an interest to continue economic and 852 2101 6950 human capital advancement growing capability in higher value add / IP areas. Rising [email protected] geopolitical issues have added urgency to these efforts. Chaolien Tseng ■ A deep-dive report. In this in-depth report, leveraging our global technology analyst team, 852 2101 6795 we outline the current market structure of various key tech sub-sectors, highlight China's [email protected] game plan to localise production and then provide our conclusions about the likelihood of Jerry Su China's success in these sectors. 886 2 2715 6361 ■ China localization: Some success; but some areas remain a work in progress. [email protected] China has achieved a lot of success in telecom equipment, hardware manufacturing, Clive Cheung display, several key components and some success stories in IC design mainly in mobile 852 2101 7069 and consumer. It is devoting a lot of resources in localising semi production and design, but [email protected] so far with only modest success outside Huawei (and is likely to remain modest even in the medium term). Its dependence on imported equipment and certain key materials is likely to Please see sub-sectors for all contributing analysts remain unchanged over the medium term as well. While this report is meant more as a primer on the topic laying out the developments in key tech sectors and outlining our conclusions, on pages 4 and 5 we summarise the global tech supply chain map, indicate our estimate of China's chances of success in various areas and its likely leaders. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 4 November 2019 Focus charts Figure 2: China total imports breakdown, 2018 (%) Figure 3: China semi industry revs and YoY growth Food & Live Beverages & Animals, 3% Other 1,600 1,487 40% Tobacco, 0% Manufactuered Goods, 10% 1,400 35% Non Food Raw 1,221 Materials, 13% 1,200 30% Machinery & 996 Transport 1,000 25% Equipment, 18% 843 800 707 20% Mineral Fuels & 600 Lubricants, 16% 600 15% 466 382 400 305 321 10% 255 Animal & Vegetable 200 142 5% Oils, 0% 0 0% Chemicals, 10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Tech, 21% Textile, Rubber, China Semi Sales (Rmb bn) YoY（%） Minerals, 7% Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse estimates Source: CEIC Figure 4: Technology supply chain – a map of Chinese suppliers Semi Semi Cap Components Materials Equipment TV Brands Substrate: Access, Exposure: SMEE Panel: BOE, Tianma, CEC Panda, Fastprint, SCC Deposition: Naura, CSOT TV: Skyworth, Wafer: AST, Ferrotech Casing: BYDE, Ju Teng, Tongda, FII Piotech Changhong, Haier, JV, ESWIN, Simgui, Inspection: Grand, Touch/Fingerprint: O-Film, Truly, Q- Zing Semi, Zhonghuan Tech Hisense, Konka, Raintree TCL Lithography related: Etch: AMEC, Naura Lens: Sunny Optical, AAC Kempur, Ruihong Photoresist processing: Acoustic: Goertek, AAC Sputtering: KFMI Kingsemi Connector: Luxshare, Everwin, FIT Smartphone CMP Slurry: Anji Clean: ACM Surveillance: Hikvision, Dahua Brands Chemicals: Runma, Antenna: Luxshare, Sunway Jingrui, Huayi, Sinyang LEDs: Sanan Handsets: Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, Back-end ZTE, Coolpad, Tech Foundries package & test Lenovo, TCL CM / ODMs Downstream SMIC, Hua Hong, JCET, Tianshui Distributors Shanghai Huali, Huatian, Tongfu, ASMC, CSMC, SiEN, China Wafer Level Synnex (Taiwan Huaqin, Wingtech, listed), Digital Silan, CanSemi, CR CSP, SJ Semi, TINNO, BYD, PC Brands Micro, Yantai Raytron Kaifa, Biwin Longcheer, USI China, VST PC / Server: Fabless IC Design Lenovo, Inspur, Mobile Processor: HiSilicon, Spreadtrum, ASR, Pinecone, ZTE (Sanechip) Dawning, Razer, Servers/AI: HiSilicon, Cambricon, Montage, Alibaba, Eeasy Tech, Huaxinton, Big IC Distributors Huawei Fish, ThinkForce, Illuvatar, Cambricon, Bitmain, Zhaoxin, Loongsan, eBang End GPU: Jingjia, Zhoaxin Networking Consumer MCU: Gigadevice, Ingenic, Unigroup Guoxin, SinoWealth, Silan, Goodix, Datang, HQ Mart, Will Semi, Fortune Huada, Giantec, Yixin, MindMotion, Winner Micro Tech, Wuhan P&S, INtron, OEMs RF IC: RDA, Vanchip, Huawei, Maxscend, Sanechips Apex Ace, Smart-core, Retail: Consumer: Rockchip, Allwinner, Amlogic, Actions Networking: Techtronics, Wisewheel, Gome,Suning Touch/Fingerprint IC: Goodix, Silead, Fortsense, Betterlife, Chipone, BYD Huawei, ZTE CMOS image sensor: Will Semi (OVT), GalaxyCore, Superpix, Artivision Sunray Online: Alibaba, Analog: Awinic, SG Micro, BYD , OnBright, Silergy, Nexperia, Huada, Chipone JD.com Driver IC: SinoWealth, Solomon Systech, Chipone Smartcard: Tongfong Guoxin, Datang, Huada, Nationz, Fudan, Hua Hong IC Memory: GigaDevice, YMTC, Changxin, Fujian Jinhua, Reliance Memory (Rambus/Giga JV), ISSI, Giantec Surveillance/Video: Huawei, Fullhan, Vimicro, Ingenic, Artosyn, Goke, Eeasy, EDA Tools Dahua, Yitu, Horizon Robotics FPGA: Gowin, Fudan Micro, Unigroup Guoxin, Huada Hyperform Source: Company data, Credit Suisse Research Asia Technology Strategy 2 4 November 2019 China: Can it gain tech independence? A net tech exporter; but a heavy semi importer Import of technology products constitutes the largest proportion of total imports by China for any Tech imports are ~21% of total Chinese imports… given sector. This proportion has grown from high-teens a few years ago to 20-23% in recent years. Within technology, import of semiconductors by far constituted the largest proportion (US$311 bn; ~70% of total tech imports). Import of semis and display equipment was another important part of total imports (5%). While China is a large importer of technology products, it is … Semis are ~70% of all tech imports also a large exporter, actually exporting US$20 bn more of tech products than it imported in 2018—it is a large net importer of semiconductors and equipment but is a large net exporter of downstream products such as handsets and consumer electronics, and also telecom equipment. Localising semi production a national priority While the Chinese local semis production has been growing at a 20% CAGR in recent years, Several policy initiatives since 2000 supporting the development of a local tech industry China remains a large importer of semis, and hence, the need to continue to focus on developing the local industry. Geopolitical developments in recent years, particularly the inclusion of several Chinese entities (notably Huawei, Hikvision amongst others) by the US on its restricted Entity List, further adds urgency to this localisation drive. The government has had Support from multiple sources: National IC Fund, policy initiatives, R&D and capex several policy initiatives over the years culminating in its 'Made in China 2025' initiative in 2015. subsidies, local government, and investments Substantial funding is behind the National IC Development Guideline initiative, including from private VC establishing the National IC Fund which raised US$20 bn in 2014 and is now a second round for US$29bn, along with US$120-140 bn from public/private funds. The fund has invested in creating national champions that can compete globally across memory, foundry, back-end, suppliers, and design companies. To supplement the National IC Fund, the Chinese government believes a strong policy support, growing ecosystem, and national fund backing in the semiconductor industry will attract an even greater amount
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