September 2014 STRATEGIC FORUM National Defense University The Rising Terrorist Threat in About the Author Dr. Andre LeSage is a Senior Research Tanzania: Domestic Islamist Fellow in the Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Militancy and Regional Threats Strategic Studies, at the National Defense University. by Andre LeSage Key Points espite its reputation for peace and stability in a troubled region, the ◆◆ The growing number of militant Islamist attacks in Tanzania East African country of Tanzania is experiencing a rising number of demonstrates a nascent terrorist militant Islamist attacks that have targeted local Christian leaders threat that can undermine peace and stability in yet another East and foreign tourists, as well as popular bars and restaurants. These attacks, which African country. D began in 2012, rarely make the headlines of international media. However, they ◆◆ Local and regional dynamics— should serve as a wake-up call for U.S. policymakers to increase short-term en- including foreign fighters gagement with Tanzanian officials and support for Tanzanian security agencies returning from Somalia, disputes over the Zanzibar islands, and to preempt the emergence of a more significant threat to U.S. and international national elections in 2015—could interests in East Africa. create a “perfect storm” that would exacerbate the threat. Thus far, the attacks in Tanzania have been relatively unsophisticated. ◆◆ If its issues remain unaddressed, They have involved crude homemade explosives, handguns, and buckets of Tanzania is likely to experience acid; they have been focused on poorly protected targets of opportunity; the same security trends as Kenya, where, with the help of exter- and they have not resulted in mass casualties. However, as events over the nal support, local capabilities past few years in neighboring Kenya have demonstrated, today’s seemingly have been developed to conduct minor and manageable threats can evolve quickly into something far more increasingly deadly attacks that affect U.S. and other foreign lethal and intractable. In Kenya, similarly unsophisticated attacks only a interests. few years ago have grown quickly, resulting in the Westgate Mall attack ◆◆ In response, the United States in September 2013, when 4 shooters killed 67 people and wounded 175 needs to focus policy-level atten- tion on the situation in Tanzania more; the discovery in March 2014 of a massive car bomb in Mombasa that and invest additional intelligence, could have killed scores more; and the massacre of more than 60 villagers law enforcement, and strategic communications efforts to combat in Lamu County in June 2014. Events such as these have thrown Kenya the spread of violent extremism. into a cycle of violence pitting national security forces against clandestine militant cells. This paper provides an overview of the current threat posed by Islamist GIC RESEARCH CENTER FOR Strate militants in Tanzania by tracing their evolution in the Tanzanian political inss.dodlive.mil SF No. 288 1 UGANDA 30 32 Lake 34 36 38 ° L. ° ° °The boundaries and names shown° and the designations used Rushwa Bukoba Victoria Mar on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance Buoen a by the United Nations. U Musoma kar A Uker a RWANDA ewe I. R I. MARA o I. 2 E nd 2 bo me I KENYA ° u aiso . ° G R M Lake A SERENGETI Natron Mwanza UNITED REP. Ngara K Biharamulo Game Res. NAT. PARK OF Geita MT. KILIMANJARO TANZANIA yu Ngorongoro NAT. PARK Sim i Kilimanjaro MWANZA Maswa Conservation 5895 m Game Area BURUNDI Res. Arusha Kibondo SHINYANGA i M L. 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The paper concludes with Tanzania and the Zanzibar islands to counter further recommendations that the United States pay closer radicalization. 2 SF No. 288 inss.dodlive.mil The Tanzanian Context poorer island of Pemba—was critical to this process as Globally, Tanzania is known for its rich cultural his- it became the seat for an Omani sultanate by the mid- tory, political stability, and increasingly vibrant economy. 1800s and a main base for the slave trade deep into the Politically, the country earned respect from international mainland. European colonization—the British on Zan- observers as a leader of the Non-Aligned Movement and zibar and the Germans on the mainland—did little to a key regional force in the struggle against South African disrupt the spread of Islam. In fact, “the diffusion of apartheid. Julius Nyerere, Tanzania’s first president who Islam in East Africa generally followed the establish- served from 1964 to 1985, promoted national unity of the ment of railroads, and was facilitated by the fact that country’s 120 ethnic groups and emerged as one of Africa’s the Germans initially employed Muslims as officials, leading statesmen. The economy is primarily based on ag- police, soldiers and teachers.”1 riculture, infrastructure remains poor, and corruption is a Control of mainland Tanganyika shifted from Ger- significant problem. However, foreign direct investment is many to Britain during World War II. The territory booming in the mining and oil exploration sectors. In ad- then gained independence in December 1961 under the dition, tourism opportunities abound—including safaris leadership of Julius Nyerere and his Tanganyika African in the Serengeti, climbing on Mount Kilimanjaro, and the National Union (TANU). Zanzibar did not achieve in- luxury beach resorts of Zanzibar. dependence until December 1963. Its first government, Officially known as the United Republic of Tanza- a constitutional monarchy led by the Sultan of Zanzibar, nia, the country was formed through the union of main- was overthrown in an extremely violent coup by the Afro- land Tanganyika and the Zanzibar islands (Unguja and Shirazi Party (ASP), which quickly merged Zanzibar with Pemba), which lie approximately 20 miles off the coast. Tanganyika in 1964 to form the modern Tanzanian state. Tanzania has a population of approximately 48 million, This was followed by the merger of the TANU and ASP divided roughly evenly between Christians and Muslims parties to create Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM, or the at 35 to 45 percent each, with a large segment of tradi- Party of the Revolution). tional animists making up the difference. Tanzania is not Tanzania was established by Nyerere along the lines dominated by a single ethnic group. The largest tribe—the of state corporatism, which was originally considered a Sukuma, located around Lake Victoria—constitutes less mid-point between capitalism and Marxism. In the cor- than 20 percent of the population. Other tribes, including poratist state, all interest groups—trade unions, women’s the Nyamwezi, Haya, Gogo, Ha, and Masaai, individually organizations, ethnic organizations, youth organiza- comprise less than 10 percent of the population. tions, and even religious groups—are directly controlled Muslims—primarily from the Shafi’i school of by the government. The ideas behind state corporatism Sunni Islam—are scattered across the country and in- were that interest groups would still be represented, but a terspersed with non-Muslims in all major Tanzanian strong government able to guide economic and political cities. That said, the largest concentrations of Muslims development would be firmly in control.2 can be found in Zanzibar—where Muslims make up 95 Tanzania remained a single-party state under the percent of the population of 750,000 people—and the CCM until multiparty elections were allowed in 1992, mainland Tanzanian coastline.