. Libya Weekly

Operational Preview

May 16, 2021

Prepared by:

Risk Analysis Team, Libya

© 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary

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1 202 1 © Table of Contents

Outlook ...... 3 Short Term Outlook ...... 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ...... 3 Executive Summary ...... 3 Political Developments ...... 3 Military Developments ...... 4 Security Developments ...... 4 Health Developments ...... 5 Coronavirus ...... 5 Migrant Crisis ...... 5 Travel Developments ...... 5 Threat Matrix ...... 6 Key Dates ...... 6 Assessment ...... 6 Political Developments ...... 6 Security Developments ...... 7 Coronavirus ...... 7 Regional Assessment ...... 7 Tripolitania Region ...... 7 Cyrenaica Region ...... 8 Fezzan Region ...... 8 Acronym List ...... 10 GardaWorld ...... 11 Information Services ...... 11 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management...... 11

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1 202 2 © Outlook

Short Term Outlook

▪ The political landscape in Libya continues to evolve however momentum is now slowing as the new government and Presidential Council (PC) start to become bogged down in Libya’s internal divisions. The focus is increasingly shifting to the December elections with fears the process could be derailed. Armed groups in Tripoli are presenting a significant threat to the new government's fragile unity however there are more positive signs from the east suggesting negotiations are gaining traction. ▪ Pressure to see progress on the military track is resulting in an increase of military propaganda as some factions seek to preserve the status quo. In doing so however, they risk a real escalation of tensions along the Sirte to Jufra frontline and in Tripoli. Efforts to progress the de-escalation will continue to focus on the reopening of the coastal road and the withdrawal of mercenaries. ▪ COVID-19 continues to affect Libya and travel in and out through Turkey and Tunisia although, at present, PCR testing is helping to keep travel corridors open. The country is expected to begin its delayed vaccination program and despite localized lockdowns and curfews, coronavirus continues to have little effect on normal daily life. ▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions.

Medium to Long Term Outlook

▪ The successful implementation of the new PC and GNU are notable achievements, putting Libya back on a path to unity, but many threats to this progress remain. In many respects, the GNU is being seen as a relatively weak body, but this could work in Libya’s favour, leaving the prime minister room to continue driving the process forward as he builds a broad support base across the various factions. The country is gearing up for elections in December 2021, an ambitious timeframe that will need various foundations to be laid in the months ahead by the new government. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it moves towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary

Political Developments

▪ Libyans were united during the morning of May 13 as they performed prayers on the morning of Eid al-Fitr. Across the country, prayers were held in mosques and public squares as people marked the end of Ramadan, the first not marked by major battles for a number of years. ▪ Sirte has become a focus this week for the National Reconciliation effort. The city, which has been fought over a number of times including by IS, hosted President Mohamed Menfi for Eid. The visit coincided the with the creation of a sovereign fund of one billion LYD for the city’s reconstruction with Menfi instructing several GNU ministers to visit the city and assess its needs.

▪ The reconciliation program also extended to Misrata and Zliten this week. President Mohamed Menfi and Musa Koni of the PC met with elders from the two cities to discuss the national reconciliation program. The elders extended an invitation to Menfi and Koni to visit Misrata and

Zliten and stated their full support for the efforts of the PC.

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1 202 3 © ▪ Koni also continued to pursue his tour of the southern region which he began on May 08. On May 10, he travelled to Ghat along with Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush who has also been visiting towns and cities in the Fezzan region. Efforts are ongoing to get border crossings opened with Algeria with Koni engaging with the Algerian Foreign Minister, Sabri Boukadoum. ▪ The controversy around Mangoush began to calm towards the end of the week. This came after a GNU spokesman denied rumours that she was being investigated and Mangoush herself made a number of statements. ▪ The German Foreign Ministry has stated that an international foreign ministers conference on Libya has been scheduled for the second half of June in Berlin. The meeting comes after the initial Berlin conference held in January 2020 as the conflict still raged. The conference helped set a roadmap for Libya which has had some success under the UN. ▪ Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio has stated that there was “very discouraging progress in Libya, despite positive developments occurring in the weeks following the GNUs formation.” This included the delay in adopting the national budget and the issues over the reopening of the coastal road. Di Maio’s comments came during a meeting with his German counterpart, Heiko Maas. Berlin and Rome are reportedly working in cooperation over the next Berlin Conference. ▪ In a slightly more positive tone, Maas stated that “peace opportunities in Libya have increased, but there are many challenges that must be faced and overcome.” This includes the holding of December elections and the withdrawal of foreign fighters. The comments came after a phone call between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah. ▪ Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah has been slightly less visible this week however he did speak with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the phone. He also visited Jafara along with a delegation which included the ministers of justice, local government, economy, housing, and industry.

Military Developments

▪ Both sides received further military planes this week from international actors. On May 14, the Volcano of Rage Operations Room stated a military cargo plane had landed at the LNA-held Al Qardibya Airbase near Sirte. The day before, other sources tracked a military plane from Turkey which landed at Watiyah Airbase in Tripolitania.

Security Developments

▪ The fall out of the decision to appoint Major General Hussein Mohammed Al-A’eb as head of intelligence continued this week. Tensions are high around the Intelligence HQ in Dahra, Tripoli where Nawasi Brigade is reportedly intent on trying to ensure a smooth handover from Emad Trabelsi, who continues to refuse to stand down. ▪ Minister of the Interior (GNU), Khaled Mazen, is conducting a series of visits to various cities in an effort to “unify police bodies and secure the upcoming elections.” ▪ Chairman of the Defense and National Security Committee (HoR), Talal Al-Mihoub, has claimed that Islamist-leaning militias in western Libya are obstructing the 5+5 Joint Military Council and the reopening of the coastal road. ▪ Local competition between armed groups, fueled by larger groups from Zawiyah and Tripoli, is destabilsing Sabratah and Ajaylat. This is also helping to create space for more general crime adding to the deteriorating security situation in the area. ▪ The British Government has implemented sanctions on Kani Brigade. Sanctions include the freezing of assets and a block on Kani members and commanders from entering Britain. Kani Brigade had dominated Tarhunah for a number of years prior to 2020 when they were dislodged with the LNA withdrawal. ▪ A project to clear Tripoli International Airport from mines and explosive remnants of war has been

announced by Minister of Transport (GNU) Mohamed Al-Shahoubi and Chief of General Staff,

Mohammed al-Haddad. The project will begin with a comprehensive survey of the airport by the Military Engineering Department (MoD) and will pave the wave for the reconstruction of the airport.

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1 202 4 © Health Developments

▪ The Minister of Health (GNU), Ali Mohamed Al-Zinati, has visited Benghazi and Ajdabiya. In Benghazi. He toured the Benghazi Medical Centre while in Ajdabiya, he opened the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at the Martyr Mohammed Al-Magarief Central Educational Hospital after it had undergone maintenance. He is expected to visit Sirte in the coming days following Menfi’s direction to various ministers to ascertain the needs of the city. ▪ Al-Jalaa Teaching Hospital in Benghazi has released statistics for the last 16 days of April. The hospital had 6000 ambulances due to various accidents, including traffic accidents which accounted for around 5000 of the ambulances. Fighting accounted for over 300 cases with 700 cases in total admitted to hospital for treatment. The hospital's medical team performed nearly 300 surgeries and over 9,000 x-rays and ultrasounds and had 45 deaths. The hospital is known to take cases from across areas of LNA control.

Coronavirus

▪ Libyas vaccination campaign continues to gather steam. This week saw the roll out of the Sinovac vaccination across the country while over 5 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine were expected to be received over several batches. Libya has so far given a first dose to at least 71,340 people, representing 1% of those registered for the campaign with reports that the demand for the vaccination is increasing. ▪ The Municipal Council in Jadu has announced a significant decreased in COVID-19 cases with no new cases reported for a week. In Benghazi however, reporting has suggested that the number of hospitalizations due to the virus are increasing with medical staff moving to reassure people they had enough oxygen supplies. ▪ Calls were made prior to Eid for people to adhere to preventative measures as families and communities gathered. Prayers on the morning of May 13 were largely held outside in large public spaces or even roads with people appearing to adhere to social distancing measures.

Migrant Crisis

▪ Masoud Ibrahim, a spokesman for the CoS of the Libyan Naval Forces, stated that they were expecting a significant increase in the number of migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean over the Eid al-Fitr holiday. The better weather has seen a general increase in the number of boats being launched from Libya, many of which quickly get into distress.

Travel Developments

▪ Tunisair has opened its main sales office in Tripoli Towers in preparation for its resumption of flights on May 17. One flight a day will run between Tunis – Mitiga – Tunis and three flights a week will run between Tunis – Benghazi – Tunis. Tunisair has also recently opened a ticket office in Mitiga Airport. Its planned resumption of flights has been delayed twice, firstly in November 2020 and then in April 2021.

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1 202 5 © Threat Matrix

Region Political Terrorism Militancy Crime Kidnap

Tripolitania High High High High High

Tripoli High High High-Extreme High High

Cyrenaica High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate-High

Benghazi High Moderate-High Moderate High High

Fezzan High High High-Extreme High High

Sabha High High High High-Extreme High-Extreme

Threat Scale Minimal Low Moderate High Extreme

Key Dates

Date Occasion Comment

Second half of the June 2021 Second Berlin Conference on Libya month Deadline for elections legal framework to be in July 01, 2021 place

July 19, 2021 Day of Arafah Public Holiday

July 20 – 22, 2021 Eid al-Adha Public Holiday

December 24, 2021 Libyan elections

Graph: Weekly activity levels for the previous four weeks by regions Assessment

Political Developments

GNU: Campaign against foreign minister calms The campaign against Foreign Minister (GNU) Najla Mangoush began to calm towards the end of the week. Mangoush has been accused of taking an anti-Turkish stance by some Tripolitania-based groups due to her position on the departure of foreign forces, becoming the focus of a campaign to contain or remove her. With the campaign against her escalating, she chose to address some of the recent criticism she had received for making a “suspicious” visit to Qatrun last week where she was accused of meeting with foreign mercenary groups. She explained that she was a Libyan official and would be ashamed to claim she understood what was going on in the south without even visiting. Her tour of the south also included a visit to the Tumu border crossing with Niger, 300km south of Qatrun, as well as Ghat where her visit coincided with that of PC Member, Musa Koni. Mangoush is now planning on

visiting neighbouring countries to discuss some of the issues affecting the south including human

trafficking, migration, and smuggling. She is also reportedly drafting a new law to strengthen the penalties for smugglers and human traffickers.

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1 202 6 © Security Developments

Britain implements sanctions on Kani Brigade On May 13, Britain announced that it was imposing sanctions on Kani Brigade. British Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, stated that the armed group “oversaw a five-year reign of terror until 2020, torturing and murdering innocent people. The UK has today imposed asset freezes and travel bans on the militia group and its two leaders. We will hold them accountable for these atrocities.” In 2020, the US blacklisted the militia and its leader after Russia prevented a UN Security Council committee from imposing sanctions over human rights abuse by the group.

PC: Appointment of new Intelligence Head continues to cause tensions in Tripoli Fall out from the appointment of the new head of Intelligence, Major General Hussein Mohammed Al- A’eb, has continued this week. A’eb was appointed to the coveted position on May 05 by the PC. As a result, the current deputy, Emad Trabelsi was to step down, however he has so far refused to do so. Trabelsi’s refusal to stand down has resulted in Nawasi Brigade taking action with them reportedly looking to “ensure a smooth transition.” Nawasi dominates the Dahra area and has a long history of opposing Trabelsi.

Deteriorating security situation in Sabratah and Ajaylat The security situation in Sabratah and Ajaylat is deteriorating. Much of this is being driven by localised competition between armed groups over the control of criminal activity in the area including smuggling and human trafficking. This is being fuelled by larger militias in Zawiyah and Tripoli who are backing local allies as they seek to dominate criminal activity along the coastline.

Coronavirus

With Eid al-Fitr following this week, there has been no reporting of new cases for the last three days. As such, figures this week are unlikely to be representative of the current situation. Only 1209 positive cases were reported, compared to 2099 from last week. Regional Assessment

Tripolitania Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Arrest - May 10, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Zuwara: A 45-year-old Maltese national, Jesmond Vella, was arrested in connection with human and drug smuggling. Vella, known as El Bulgaro, was arrested by SDF and is reportedly well known to Maltese law enforcement. ▪ Security Operation - May 10 06:00, Misrata Province, Bani Walid: 444 Combat Unit carried out a series of raids in Bani Walid, targeting groups allegedly involved in kidnapping and robbery. Around 110 people of different nationalities were also freed after being unlawfully detained by armed groups who were demanding ransoms from their families. The city sits on a human trafficking route through Libya and has also seen a number of Egyptian nationals kidnapped over recent weeks. ▪ Kidnap - May 10 22:00, Tripoli Province, Draiby: A female kidnap victim was rescued. She had reportedly been kidnapped five days before Ramadan. ▪ Demonstration - May 11, Misrata Province, Misrata: A demonstration was held in solidarity with the Palestinian people following the escalation with Israel. ▪ Demonstration - May 11, Az Zawiyah Province, Zawiyah: A demonstration was held in solidarity

with the Palestinian people following the escalation with Israel. ▪ Demonstration - May 11 15:00, Tripoli Province, Palestinian Embassy: The Diplomatic Police secured a demonstration near the Palestinian Embassy. The demonstration was likely in support

of the Palestinians following escalations with Israel.

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1 202 7 © ▪ Prisoner Release - May 12, Misrata Province, Misrata: 78 prisoners from the last LNA/GNA conflict were released from Al-Jadida Prison, Misrata during a reconciliation ceremony attended by the Minister of Justice just before Eid al-Fitr. The release is part of a number of agreements between the two sides and follows the swap of 35 from both sides on May 11 with a ceremony in Ash Shwayrif. ▪ Armed Attack - May 12 21:30, Az Zawiyah Province, Sabratah: An armed assault took place against the Sabratah Criminal Investigation Department (CID) HQ. ▪ Demonstration - May 13 13:00, Tripoli Province, Martyrs' Square: A pro-Palestinian demonstration took place following Eid al-Fitr prayers. The purpose of the action is to denounce the eviction of Palestinians from the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah and Israeli security services' suppression of protests by Palestinians in Jerusalem in recent days. This follows demonstrations on May 12 in Tripoli, Zawiyah and Misrata over the issue. ▪ Armed Attack - May 13 15:00, Tripoli Province, Intelligence HQ: An armed group allegedly forced their way into the Intelligence HQ and forcibly released three of their members who were detained two weeks ago. ▪ Armed Clash - May 14, Az Zawiyah Province, Al-Qanaa Street: An armed fight involving RPGs erupted after Alaa Al-Jatouli and Mohammed Al-Mortah shot at Ahmed Zaait and Alaa Al Shaibani and killed an Algerian national. ▪ Murder/ Execution - May 14 22:30, Az Zawiyah Province, Al-Qanaa Street: An Algerian national was murdered by an armed group. The man had been paid to steal an armoured vehicle which had been previously rented to Ahmed Zaait and Alaa Al Shaibani who copied the key code and sold the vehicle on to someone in Zintan. ▪ Threat Warning - May 14 23:30, Tripoli Province, Intelligence HQ: There are increased tensions around the General Intelligence Building in Dahara.

Cyrenaica Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Arson - May 09 21:00, Benghazi Province, Venice Street: A fire at the Elieen Shopping Centre is believed to have been arson, although some reports have suggested an electric fire, or even IDF. ▪ Armed Clash - May 09 23:30, Benghazi Province, Sinbad Palace: Reports indicate the clashes occurred between soldiers loyal to Saddam Haftar (LNA) elements and supporters of Abdul al- Mashay, a local businessman who was friends with the late Major Mahmoud Warfalli. ▪ Weapons Find - May 10 04:00, Al-Butnan Province, Bab Alzitone Checkpoint: Two Toyota vehicles failed to stop at a checkpoint east of Tobruk. The Tobruk Security Directorate responded, engaging the vehicles with SAF. Following a firefight, security forces discovered a significant cache of weapons and ammunition. This included various rifles, DShK barrels and RPGs. ▪ Armed Attack - May 11 00:00, Benghazi Province, Marwa Motel: An unidentified armed group forced its way into the Marwa Motel and kidnapped a security guard. The high-end Motel opened in April 2021. ▪ Kidnap - May 12 00:30, Benghazi Province, Benghazi: A gold and currency dealer was kidnapped on the Fourth Ring Road in Benghazi. ▪ Kidnap - May 12 15:00, Benghazi Province, Bohdema: Masked men dressed in fatigues kidnapped a Libyan national on Vehicles Street. ▪ Mine Strike - May 15 13:00, Benghazi Province, Sabri: A mine detonated killing a Libyan national.

Fezzan Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Arson - May 09 19:00, Sabha Province, Soukra: The home of a man accused of murdering his

neighbour was burned down. The incident also resulted in an armed clash.

▪ Murder/ Execution - May 09 20:00, Sabha Province, Soukra: A man was murdered by his neighbour. ▪ Armed Clash - May 09 22:30, Sabha Province, Al-Tekka Roundabout: A clash took place in

response to the murder of a man by his neighbour.

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1 202 8 © ▪ Armed Robbery - May 09 23:00, Sabha Province, Bardi: A bank employee was subjected to an armed robbery, resulting in the theft of 500,000 LYD. ▪ Murder/ Execution - May 10 14:00, Sabha Province, Jadid: A Libyan national was murdered by unidentified perpetrators. ▪ Kidnap - May 10 14:00, Sabha Province, Ramla Mosque: An African national was believed to have been kidnapped following a car chase in which he crashed his taxi. ▪ Kidnap - May 10 16:00, Sabha Province, Soukra: An unidentified person driving a Hyundai Verna was kidnapped by two unidentified perpetrators. ▪ Armed Clash - May 11 00:00, Sabha Province, Naqalat Street: A clash resulted in one wounded. ▪ Armed Clash - May 12 02:00, Sabha Province, Mahdia: An armed clash was reported in the area. ▪ Arrest - May 12 16:00, Sabha Province, Mansheya: An arrest was conducted based on tribal identity. ▪ Armed Clash - May 12 20:10, Sabha Province, Qurdah: Clashes resulted in injuries. ▪ Assault - May 13 01:30, Sabha Province, Mahdia: An argument escalated into a stabbing of one individual. ▪ Armed Robbery - May 13 22:30, Sabha Province, Qurdah Agricultural Area: Two men stormed a farm during an armed robbery, resulting in the death of a Nigerien farm worker. ▪ Armed Clash - May 14 00:10, Sabha Province, Green Mosque: Clashes were reported near the Green Mosque. ▪ SAF - May 14 00:20, Sabha Province, Mansheya: Small arms fire was reported in the area. ▪ Armed Robbery - May 15 13:30, Sabha Province, Sabha Faculty of Medicine: Three perpetrators in a Hyundai Verna stole mobile phones and cash at gunpoint. ▪ Armed Robbery - May 15 13:30, Sabha Province, Sabha Faculty of Medicine: Three perpetrators in a Hyundai Verna stole mobile phones and cash at gunpoint. ▪ Carjacking - May 15 16:30, Sabha Province, Qurdah Agricultural Area: A white Avanti was carjacked by unidentified perpetrators mobile in a Hyundai Sonata and Verna. ▪ Armed Robbery - May 15 16:40, Sabha Province, Hijarah: An attempted armed robbery of a commercial truck driver by unidentified perpetrators mobile in a grey Hyundai Sonata resulted in a firefight after the driver returned fire.

Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader's own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report

should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.

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1 202 9 © Acronym List

AQ - Al-Qaeda BAM – Al Bunyan Al Marsous (Misratan-led) BDB – Benghazi Defense Brigade / Saraya Defend Benghazi (SDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) CBL – Central Bank of Libya CNI – Critical National Infrastructure DACOCT - Deterrence Apparatus for Combating Organized Crime and Terrorism DDR - Disarmament, demobilising and reintegration DF – Direct Fire DPF – Derna Protection Force (an amalgamation of all militias in Derna, including the MSCD) GECOL – General Electricity Company of Libya GMMR – Great Man-made River GNA – Government of National Accord (2016) GNC – General National Congress (2012) GNU – Government of National Unity (2021) GTUC - Greater Tripoli Union Council (Tripoli militias and others, established in June 2020) HNEC – High National Elections Commission HoR – House of Representatives (Tobruk-based) IDF – Indirect Fire (mortars/rockets) IDP - Internally Displaced Persons IED - Improvised Explosive Device IOC - International Oil Company IS - Islamic State LIFG – Libyan Islamic Fighting Group LNA – Libyan National Army LNG – Libyan National Guard LPA – Libyan Political Agreement (2015) LPDF - Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (2020) LROR - Libyan Revolutionary Operations Room MoD - Ministry of Defense MoF - Ministry of Finance MoFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoHE - Ministry of Higher Education MoI - Ministry of Interior MoJ - Ministry of Justice MoO - Ministry of Oil MoT - Ministry of Transportation MSCD – Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (AQ aligned) NFDK - No Further Details Known NGO - Non-Governmental Organisation (aid/charity) NOC – National Oil Company NSG – National Salvation Government (GNC) NSTR - Nothing Significant To Report PC – Presidency Council (GNA) PG – Presidential Guard PFG- Petroleum Facilities Guard RPG - Rocket Propelled Grenade RSCB - Revolutionary Shura Council of Benghazi RTA - Road Traffic Accident SAF - Small Arms Fire SDB – Saraya Defend Benghazi / Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) SDF – Rada Deterrence Force/ Special Deterrence Force/ Rada Technical - An improvised weapon-mounted pick-up truck TPF – Tripoli Protection Force (TRB, Nawasi 8 Force, Bab Tajoura Brigade and Ghneiwa umbrella group, established in December 2018)

UXO - Unexploded Ordnance

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