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Libya Weekly Operational Preview . Libya Weekly Operational Preview May 16, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya © 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 1 © Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 3 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 Health Developments ........................................................................................................................... 5 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Migrant Crisis ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Travel Developments ............................................................................................................................ 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 6 Key Dates .............................................................................................. 6 Assessment ........................................................................................... 6 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 7 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Regional Assessment ............................................................................ 7 Tripolitania Region ................................................................................................................................ 7 Cyrenaica Region ................................................................................................................................. 8 Fezzan Region ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Acronym List ........................................................................................ 10 GardaWorld .......................................................................................... 11 Information Services ........................................................................................................................... 11 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management.................................................... 11 This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya. GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 2 © Outlook Short Term Outlook ▪ The political landscape in Libya continues to evolve however momentum is now slowing as the new government and Presidential Council (PC) start to become bogged down in Libya’s internal divisions. The focus is increasingly shifting to the December elections with fears the process could be derailed. Armed groups in Tripoli are presenting a significant threat to the new government's fragile unity however there are more positive signs from the east suggesting negotiations are gaining traction. ▪ Pressure to see progress on the military track is resulting in an increase of military propaganda as some factions seek to preserve the status quo. In doing so however, they risk a real escalation of tensions along the Sirte to Jufra frontline and in Tripoli. Efforts to progress the de-escalation will continue to focus on the reopening of the coastal road and the withdrawal of mercenaries. ▪ COVID-19 continues to affect Libya and travel in and out through Turkey and Tunisia although, at present, PCR testing is helping to keep travel corridors open. The country is expected to begin its delayed vaccination program and despite localized lockdowns and curfews, coronavirus continues to have little effect on normal daily life. ▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions. Medium to Long Term Outlook ▪ The successful implementation of the new PC and GNU are notable achievements, putting Libya back on a path to unity, but many threats to this progress remain. In many respects, the GNU is being seen as a relatively weak body, but this could work in Libya’s favour, leaving the prime minister room to continue driving the process forward as he builds a broad support base across the various factions. The country is gearing up for elections in December 2021, an ambitious timeframe that will need various foundations to be laid in the months ahead by the new government. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it moves towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary Political Developments ▪ Libyans were united during the morning of May 13 as they performed prayers on the morning of Eid al-Fitr. Across the country, prayers were held in mosques and public squares as people marked the end of Ramadan, the first not marked by major battles for a number of years. ▪ Sirte has become a focus this week for the National Reconciliation effort. The city, which has been fought over a number of times including by IS, hosted President Mohamed Menfi for Eid. The visit coincided the with the creation of a sovereign fund of one billion LYD for the city’s reconstruction with Menfi instructing several GNU ministers to visit the city and assess its needs. ▪ The reconciliation program also extended to Misrata and Zliten this week. President Mohamed Menfi and Musa Koni of the PC met with elders from the two cities to discuss the national reconciliation program. The elders extended an invitation to Menfi and Koni to visit Misrata and Zliten and stated their full support for the efforts of the PC. GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 3 © ▪ Koni also continued to pursue his tour of the southern region which he began on May 08. On May 10, he travelled to Ghat along with Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush who has also been visiting towns and cities in the Fezzan region. Efforts are ongoing to get border crossings opened with Algeria with Koni engaging with the Algerian Foreign Minister, Sabri Boukadoum. ▪ The controversy around Mangoush began to calm towards the end of the week. This came after a GNU spokesman denied rumours that she was being investigated and Mangoush herself made a number of statements. ▪ The German Foreign Ministry has stated that an international foreign ministers conference on Libya has been scheduled for the second half of June in Berlin. The meeting comes after the initial Berlin conference held in January 2020 as the conflict still raged. The conference helped set a roadmap for Libya which has had some success under the UN. ▪ Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio has stated that there was “very discouraging progress in Libya, despite positive developments occurring in the weeks following the GNUs formation.” This included the delay in adopting the national budget and the issues over the reopening of the coastal road. Di Maio’s comments came during a meeting with his German counterpart, Heiko Maas. Berlin and Rome are reportedly working in cooperation over the next Berlin Conference. ▪ In a slightly more positive tone, Maas stated that “peace opportunities in Libya have increased, but there are many challenges that must be faced and overcome.” This includes the holding of December elections and the withdrawal of foreign fighters. The comments came after a phone call between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah. ▪ Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah has been slightly less visible this week however he did speak with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the phone. He also visited Jafara along with a delegation
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