DOCSLIB.ORG

Libya Weekly Operational Preview

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text

Load more

. Libya Weekly Operational Preview May 16, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya © 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 1 © Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 3 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 Health Developments ........................................................................................................................... 5 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Migrant Crisis ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Travel Developments ............................................................................................................................ 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 6 Key Dates .............................................................................................. 6 Assessment ........................................................................................... 6 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 7 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Regional Assessment ............................................................................ 7 Tripolitania Region ................................................................................................................................ 7 Cyrenaica Region ................................................................................................................................. 8 Fezzan Region ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Acronym List ........................................................................................ 10 GardaWorld .......................................................................................... 11 Information Services ........................................................................................................................... 11 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management.................................................... 11 This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya. GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 2 © Outlook Short Term Outlook ▪ The political landscape in Libya continues to evolve however momentum is now slowing as the new government and Presidential Council (PC) start to become bogged down in Libya’s internal divisions. The focus is increasingly shifting to the December elections with fears the process could be derailed. Armed groups in Tripoli are presenting a significant threat to the new government's fragile unity however there are more positive signs from the east suggesting negotiations are gaining traction. ▪ Pressure to see progress on the military track is resulting in an increase of military propaganda as some factions seek to preserve the status quo. In doing so however, they risk a real escalation of tensions along the Sirte to Jufra frontline and in Tripoli. Efforts to progress the de-escalation will continue to focus on the reopening of the coastal road and the withdrawal of mercenaries. ▪ COVID-19 continues to affect Libya and travel in and out through Turkey and Tunisia although, at present, PCR testing is helping to keep travel corridors open. The country is expected to begin its delayed vaccination program and despite localized lockdowns and curfews, coronavirus continues to have little effect on normal daily life. ▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions. Medium to Long Term Outlook ▪ The successful implementation of the new PC and GNU are notable achievements, putting Libya back on a path to unity, but many threats to this progress remain. In many respects, the GNU is being seen as a relatively weak body, but this could work in Libya’s favour, leaving the prime minister room to continue driving the process forward as he builds a broad support base across the various factions. The country is gearing up for elections in December 2021, an ambitious timeframe that will need various foundations to be laid in the months ahead by the new government. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it moves towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary Political Developments ▪ Libyans were united during the morning of May 13 as they performed prayers on the morning of Eid al-Fitr. Across the country, prayers were held in mosques and public squares as people marked the end of Ramadan, the first not marked by major battles for a number of years. ▪ Sirte has become a focus this week for the National Reconciliation effort. The city, which has been fought over a number of times including by IS, hosted President Mohamed Menfi for Eid. The visit coincided the with the creation of a sovereign fund of one billion LYD for the city’s reconstruction with Menfi instructing several GNU ministers to visit the city and assess its needs. ▪ The reconciliation program also extended to Misrata and Zliten this week. President Mohamed Menfi and Musa Koni of the PC met with elders from the two cities to discuss the national reconciliation program. The elders extended an invitation to Menfi and Koni to visit Misrata and Zliten and stated their full support for the efforts of the PC. GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 3 © ▪ Koni also continued to pursue his tour of the southern region which he began on May 08. On May 10, he travelled to Ghat along with Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush who has also been visiting towns and cities in the Fezzan region. Efforts are ongoing to get border crossings opened with Algeria with Koni engaging with the Algerian Foreign Minister, Sabri Boukadoum. ▪ The controversy around Mangoush began to calm towards the end of the week. This came after a GNU spokesman denied rumours that she was being investigated and Mangoush herself made a number of statements. ▪ The German Foreign Ministry has stated that an international foreign ministers conference on Libya has been scheduled for the second half of June in Berlin. The meeting comes after the initial Berlin conference held in January 2020 as the conflict still raged. The conference helped set a roadmap for Libya which has had some success under the UN. ▪ Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio has stated that there was “very discouraging progress in Libya, despite positive developments occurring in the weeks following the GNUs formation.” This included the delay in adopting the national budget and the issues over the reopening of the coastal road. Di Maio’s comments came during a meeting with his German counterpart, Heiko Maas. Berlin and Rome are reportedly working in cooperation over the next Berlin Conference. ▪ In a slightly more positive tone, Maas stated that “peace opportunities in Libya have increased, but there are many challenges that must be faced and overcome.” This includes the holding of December elections and the withdrawal of foreign fighters. The comments came after a phone call between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah. ▪ Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah has been slightly less visible this week however he did speak with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the phone. He also visited Jafara along with a delegation
Recommended publications
  • Situation of Human Rights in Libya, and the Effectiveness of Technical Assistance and Capacity-Building Measures Received by the Government of Libya

    Situation of Human Rights in Libya, and the Effectiveness of Technical Assistance and Capacity-Building Measures Received by the Government of Libya

    United Nations A/HRC/43/75 General Assembly Distr.: General 23 January 2020 Original: English Human Rights Council Forty-third session 24 February–20 March 2020 Agenda items 2 and 10 Annual report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and reports of the Office of the High Commissioner and the Secretary-General Technical assistance and capacity-building Situation of human rights in Libya, and the effectiveness of technical assistance and capacity-building measures received by the Government of Libya Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Summary In the present report, submitted to the Human Rights Council pursuant to Council resolution 40/27, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights describes the situation of human rights in Libya from January to December 2019, and provides an overview of the work and technical assistance conducted by the Human Rights, Transitional Justice and Rule of Law Service of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) in cooperation with the Office of the High Commissioner (OHCHR). The High Commissioner highlights key human rights issues relating to the protection of civilians in armed conflict, in particular its impact on women and children; the situation of migrants and refugees; the rights to freedom of opinion and expression; the administration of justice; and the support provided to victims of human rights violations. The High Commissioner also describes capacity-building activities conducted by UNSMIL and the implementation of the human rights due diligence policy on United Nations support to non-United Nations security forces. The High Commissioner concludes the report with recommendations for the Government of National Accord in Libya, all parties to the conflict and the international community.
  • The Jihadi Threat: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and Beyond

    The Jihadi Threat: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and Beyond

    THE JIHADI THREAT ISIS, AL QAEDA, AND BEYOND The Jihadi Threat ISIS, al- Qaeda, and Beyond Robin Wright William McCants United States Institute of Peace Brookings Institution Woodrow Wilson Center Garrett Nada J. M. Berger United States Institute of Peace International Centre for Counter- Terrorism Jacob Olidort The Hague Washington Institute for Near East Policy William Braniff Alexander Thurston START Consortium, University of Mary land Georgetown University Cole Bunzel Clinton Watts Prince ton University Foreign Policy Research Institute Daniel Byman Frederic Wehrey Brookings Institution and Georgetown University Car ne gie Endowment for International Peace Jennifer Cafarella Craig Whiteside Institute for the Study of War Naval War College Harleen Gambhir Graeme Wood Institute for the Study of War Yale University Daveed Gartenstein- Ross Aaron Y. Zelin Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Washington Institute for Near East Policy Hassan Hassan Katherine Zimmerman Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy American Enterprise Institute Charles Lister Middle East Institute Making Peace Possible December 2016/January 2017 CONTENTS Source: Image by Peter Hermes Furian, www . iStockphoto. com. The West failed to predict the emergence of al- Qaeda in new forms across the Middle East and North Africa. It was blindsided by the ISIS sweep across Syria and Iraq, which at least temporarily changed the map of the Middle East. Both movements have skillfully continued to evolve and proliferate— and surprise. What’s next? Twenty experts from think tanks and universities across the United States explore the world’s deadliest movements, their strate- gies, the future scenarios, and policy considerations. This report reflects their analy sis and diverse views.
  • ISIS in Libya: a Major Regional and International Threat

    ISIS in Libya: a Major Regional and International Threat

    המרכז למורשת המודיעין (מל"מ) מרכז המידע למודיעין ולטרור January 2016 ISIS in Libya: a Major Regional and International Threat ISIS operatives enter the coastal city of Sirte in north-central Libya on February 18, 2015, in a show of strength accompanied by dozens of vehicles (Twitter.com, Nasher.me). Since then ISIS has established itself in Sirte and the surrounding areas, turning the entire region into its Libyan stronghold and a springboard for spreading into other regions. Overview 1. In 2015 ISIS established two strongholds beyond the borders of its power base in Iraq and Syria: the first in the Sinai Peninsula, where it wages determined fighting against the Egyptian security forces. The second is situated in the north- central Libyan city of Sirte and its surroundings, where it has established territorial control and from where it seeks to take over the entire country. It intends to turn Libya into a springboard for terrorism and the subversion of the rest of North Africa, the sub-Saharan countries, and southern Europe. The firm territorial base ISIS constructed in Libya is the only one outside IraQ and Syria, and is potentially a greater regional and international threat. 2. ISIS could establish itself in Libya because of the chaos prevalent after the execution of Muammar Qaddafi. As in Iraq and Syria, the governmental-security vacuum created by the collapse of the central government was filled by nationalist and Islamist organizations, local and regional tribal militias and jihadist organizations. The branch of ISIS in Libya exploited the lack of a functioning government and 209-15 2 the absence of international intervention to establish itself in the region around Sirte and from there to aspire to spread throughout Libya.
  • Libya Weekly Security Preview

    Libya Weekly Security Preview

    . Libya Weekly Security Preview February 21, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya Proprietary GardaWorld GardaWorld © 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary 1 202 © 1 Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 February 17 Celebrations ..................................................................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4 Oil & Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 5 Travel .................................................................................................................................................... 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 5 Key Dates .............................................................................................
  • Jordanians End Protests but Discontent Continues in Region

    Jordanians End Protests but Discontent Continues in Region

    UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com Issue 160, Year 4 June 10, 2018 EU €2.50 Call for Russia’s Worsening water readmission crisis in MENA rattles G7 Page 18 Pages 5-6, 21 Jordanians end protests but discontent continues in region ► Jordan’s problems, with both its economy and public trust, are shared to varying degrees by other countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Mamoon Alabbasi concerns of its citizens. Responding to the unrest, Jorda- nian officials blamed external fac- London tors, such the Syrian refugee crisis, the rise in energy prices and the he demonstrations that wider problems of the region. rocked Jordan for more “Jordan has been going through than a week ended after the a very difficult situation that is not T government gave in to pro- due to failure within the country. testers’ main demands but the fac- That is due to the fact that Jordan tors that drove the general discon- has been at the receiving end of tent are likely to remain concerns in every crisis in the region,” Jorda- Jordan and other Arab countries. nian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi Thousands of Jordanians re- told CNN. sponded to a call by leading un- Safadi urged the international ions for a general strike May 30 to community to share Jordan’s bur- protest legislation that would have den, a call that was echoed by the increased income tax. The unprec- International Monetary Fund (IMF). edented size of the demonstrations “Recent events underscore the and protesters’ promise for more need for the international commu- )AFP( strikes led to the resignation of nity, including regional donors, to Lingering woes.
  • Libya and the New Axis of Terror: Reshaping the Security Theater in MENA and Europe

    Libya and the New Axis of Terror: Reshaping the Security Theater in MENA and Europe

    International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence ISSN: 0885-0607 (Print) 1521-0561 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ujic20 Libya and the New Axis of Terror: Reshaping the Security Theater in MENA and Europe Aya Burweila & John M. Nomikos To cite this article: Aya Burweila & John M. Nomikos (2019) Libya and the New Axis of Terror: Reshaping the Security Theater in MENA and Europe, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 32:1, 54-81, DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2018.1522226 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2018.1522226 Published online: 04 Mar 2019. Submit your article to this journal View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=ujic20 International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 32: 54–81, 2019 Copyright # 2019 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 0885-0607 print/1521-0561 online DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2018.1522226 AYA BURWEILA AND JOHN M. NOMIKOS Libya and the New Axis of Terror: Reshaping the Security Theater in MENA and Europe The exponential expansion of Islamist groups in both numbers and geographic scope to Libya and Syria between 2011 and 2017, and the Aya Burweila, a Senior Adviser at the Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS), Athens, Greece, is also a Visiting Lecturer at the Hellenic Defense Academy (SETHA) in Athens where she lectures on the North African security theater. A graduate in Political Science from the University of La Verne, she earned her M.A. in International Relations and Affairs from the University of Indianapolis and holds certificates in Conflict Analysis and Interfaith Conflict Resolution from the United States Institute of Peace and a Certificate in Terrorism Studies from the University of St.
  • Re-Conceptualizing Orders in the Mena Region the Analytical Framework of the Menara Project

    Re-Conceptualizing Orders in the Mena Region the Analytical Framework of the Menara Project

    No. 1, November 2016 METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPT PAPERS RE-CONCEPTUALIZING ORDERS IN THE MENA REGION THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE MENARA PROJECT Edited by Eduard Soler i Lecha (coordinator), Silvia Colombo, Lorenzo Kamel and Jordi Quero This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement No 693244 Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: Mapping Geopolitical Shifts, Regional Order and Domestic Transformations METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPT PAPERS No. 1, November 2016 RE-CONCEPTUALIZING ORDERS IN THE MENA REGION THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE MENARA PROJECT Edited by Eduard Soler i Lecha (coordinator), Silvia Colombo, Lorenzo Kamel and Jordi Quero ABSTRACT The aim of this work is to set the conceptual architecture for the MENARA Project. It is articulated in five thematic sections. The first one traces back the major historical junctures in which key powers shaped the defining features of the present-day MENA region. Section 2 sets the geographical scope of the project, maps the distribution of power and defines regional order and its main features. Section 3 focuses on the domestic orders in a changing region by gauging and tracing the evolution of four trends, namely the erosion of state capacity; the securitization of regime policies; the militarization of contention; and the pluralization of collective identities. Section 4 links developments in the global order to their impact on the region in terms of power, ideas, norms and identities. The last section focuses on foresight studies and proposes a methodology to project trends and build scenarios. All sections, as well as the conclusion, formulate specific research questions that should help us understand the emerging geopolitical order in the MENA.
  • The Derna Mujahideen Shura Council: a Revolutionary Islamist Coalition in Libya by Kevin Truitte

    The Derna Mujahideen Shura Council: a Revolutionary Islamist Coalition in Libya by Kevin Truitte

    PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 12, Issue 5 The Derna Mujahideen Shura Council: A Revolutionary Islamist Coalition in Libya by Kevin Truitte Abstract The Derna Mujahideen Shura Council (DMSC) – later renamed the Derna Protection Force – was a coalition of Libyan revolutionary Islamist groups in the city of Derna in eastern Libya. Founded in a city with a long history of hardline Salafism and ties to the global jihadist movement, the DMSC represented an amalgamation of local conservative Islamism and revolutionary fervor after the 2011 Libyan Revolution. This article examines the group’s significant links to both other Libyan Islamists and to al-Qaeda, but also its ideology and activities to provide local security and advocacy of conservative governance in Derna and across Libya. This article further details how the DMSC warred with the more extremist Islamic State in Derna and with the anti-Islamist Libyan National Army, defeating the former in 2016 but ultimately being defeated by the latter in mid-2018. The DMSC exemplifies the complex local intersection between revolution, Islamist ideology, and jihadism in contemporary Libya. Keywords: Libya, Derna, Derna Mujahideen Shura Council, al-Qaeda, Islamic State Introduction The city of Derna has, for more than three decades, been a center of hardline Islamist jihadist dissent in eastern Libya. During the rule of Libya’s strongman Muammar Qaddafi, the city hosted members of the al-Qaeda- linked Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) and subsequently served as their stronghold after reconciliation with the Qaddafi regime. The city sent dozens of jihadists to fight against the United States in Iraq during the 2000s.
  • Sadr Faces Hard Challenges After Surprise Win in Iraqi Elections

    Sadr Faces Hard Challenges After Surprise Win in Iraqi Elections

    Iran’s Qassem Welcoming Jerusalem move, Soleimani Ramadan Gaza violence and in the crosshairs Palestinian Nakba Page 13 Pages 6,21 Pages 4-8, 12 May 20, 2018 Issue 157, Year 4 UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com EU €2.50 Sadr faces hard challenges after surprise win in Iraqi elections ► In a sign of continued interference in Iraqi politics, Tehran sent Major-General Qassem Soleimani, leader of Iran’s al-Quds Force, to Iraq to encourage forming a coalition that does not include Sadr’s supporters. Mamoon Alabbasi Alliance led by Prime Minister partnership is very plausible, Iran Haider al-Abadi, which came third is likely to push for Abadi to join its in the race with 42 seats. favoured fold. After all, Abadi did London Another major Shia player that make a one-day alliance with Amiri. could join such a coalition – but not Even if a Sadr-Abadi coalition that he coalition backed by in- replace Abadi’s list — is the National includes Sunni and Kurdish lists is fluential Shia cleric Muqta- Wisdom Movement, which secured able to form a government, the na- da al-Sadr has secured the 19 seats. tionalist cleric would not necessar- T largest number of parlia- Sadr has already ruled out join- ily be able to select, let alone direct, mentary seats following Iraq’s elec- ing forces with the two Shia-led the new prime minister. tions but he faces a number of seri- lists that are staunchly backed by Marching Towards Reform is led ous challenges before he can shape Iran: the Conquest Coalition, led by by Hassan al-Aqouli, a doctor who the country’s next government.
  • Anuario Del Terrorismo Yihadista 2018

    Anuario Del Terrorismo Yihadista 2018

    OIET OBSERVATORIO INTERNACIONAL DE ESTUDIOS SOBRE TERRORISMO Anuario del terrorismo yihadista 2018 COVITE Colectivo de Víctimas del Terrorismo Terrorismoaren Biktimen Kolektiboa © de la edición: COVITE, 2019 COVITE Apdo. de Correos 3358 20080 San Sebastián (Gipuzkoa) (España) www.covite.org © de los textos: Sus autores Reservados todos los derechos. Ni la totalidad ni parte de esta publicación pueden reproducirse o transmitirse de ninguna forma o por ningún medio, sea electrónico, mecánico, reprográfico, fotoquímico, óptico, de grabación o cualquier otra forma de almacenamiento de información o sistema de recuperación, sin el permiso previo y por escrito del editor. Dirección y coordinación: Carlos Igualada Textos: Moussa Bourekba, Alfredo Campos, Luis de la Corte, Francisco José Dacoba, Carlos Fernández, Inés Gaviria, Carlos Igualada, Iñaki Méndez, Carlos Seisdedos, Miguel Sola ISBN: 978-84-09-09308-3 OIET OBSERVATORIO INTERNACIONAL DE ESTUDIOS SOBRE TERRORISMO Anuario del terrorismo yihadista 2018 Carlos Igualada (Dir.) Moussa Bourekba Alfredo Campos Luis de la Corte Francisco José Dacoba Carlos Fernández Inés Gaviria Iñaki Méndez Carlos Seisdedos Miguel Sola OIET OBSERVATORIO INTERNACIONAL DE ESTUDIOS SOBRE TERRORISMO PRESENTACIÓN CONSUELO ORDÓÑEZ FENOLLAR, Presidenta del Observatorio Internacional de Estudios sobre Terrorismo (OIET) COVITE defiende firmemente que la única ver- nuestras áreas de actuación y apoyar la investi- dad que cura y regenera el daño causado por gación y la formación de expertos. En esta línea, el terrorismo es la que relata y contextualiza el el Anuario del terrorismo yihadista 2018 recoge sufrimiento que este fenómeno —sean cuales sean información relevante sobre esta materia referente las siglas que lo impartan— causa a las víctimas. a 2018, aportando datos inéditos en un formato Para preservar la memoria y la dignidad de las novedoso.
  • Weekly Libya .Xplored Preview 12 May, 2017

    Weekly Libya .Xplored Preview 12 May, 2017

    Weekly Libya .Xplored Preview 12 May, 2017 Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Libya garda.com/ips Confidential and Proprietary © GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored Report 12 May 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACTIVITY MAP ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................... 4 Short term outlook ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Medium to long term outlook ............................................................................................................................ 4 SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Governance ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 Security ............................................................................................................................................................... 4 KEY DATES ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 THREAT MATRIX ...................................................................................................................................................
  • Re-Conceptualizing Orders in the MENA Region the Analytical Framework of the MENARA Project

    Re-Conceptualizing Orders in the MENA Region the Analytical Framework of the MENARA Project

    No.1, November 2016 METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPT PAPERS RE-CONCEPTUALIZING ORDERS IN THE MENA REGION THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE MENARA PROJECT Edited by Eduard Soler i Lecha (coordinator), Silvia Colombo, Lorenzo Kamel and Jordi Quero This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement No 693244 Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: Mapping Geopolitical Shifts, Regional Order and Domestic Transformations METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPT PAPERS No. 1, November 2016 RE-CONCEPTUALIZING ORDERS IN THE MENA REGION THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE MENARA PROJECT Edited by Eduard Soler i Lecha (coordinator), Silvia Colombo, Lorenzo Kamel and Jordi Quero ABSTRACT The aim of this work is to set the conceptual architecture for the MENARA Project. It is articulated in five thematic sections. The first one traces back the major historical junctures in which key powers shaped the defining features of the present-day MENA region. Section 2 sets the geographical scope of the project, maps the distribution of power and defines regional order and its main features. Section 3 focuses on the domestic orders in a changing region by gauging and tracing the evolution of four trends, namely the erosion of state capacity; the securitization of regime policies; the militarization of contention; and the pluralization of collective identities. Section 4 links developments in the global order to their impact on the region in terms of power, ideas, norms and identities. The last section focuses on foresight studies and proposes a methodology to project trends and build scenarios. All sections, as well as the conclusion, formulate specific research questions that should help us understand the emerging geopolitical order in the MENA.