Libya Weekly Operational Preview

. Libya Weekly

Operational Preview

August 01, 2021

Prepared by:

Risk Analysis Team, Libya

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Table of Contents

Outlook ...... 3 Short Term Outlook ...... 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ...... 3 Executive Summary ...... 3 Political Developments ...... 3 Military Developments ...... 4 Security Developments ...... 4 Oil & Gas Developments ...... 5 International Developments ...... 5 Coronavirus ...... 5 Threat Matrix ...... 5 Key Dates ...... 6 Assessment ...... 6 Political Developments ...... 6 Security Developments ...... 6 Coronavirus ...... 7 Regional Assessment ...... 7 Tripolitania Region ...... 7 Cyrenaica Region ...... 8 Fezzan Region ...... 8 Acronym List ...... 10 GardaWorld ...... 11 Information Services ...... 11 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management...... 11

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Outlook

Short Term Outlook

▪ Political progress is slowing as enduring divisions surface within the Libyan political scene. The proposed December elections are looking increasingly at risk after the LPDF failed to come to a consensus at the start of July. The UN-backed process is beginning to show some signs of fracturing as the pressure builds. With tensions flaring, efforts to find a consensus have become more difficult. ▪ Cases of COVID-19 have begun increasing significantly in Libya, likely driven by the introduction of the Delta variant. As a result, the border with Tunisia has been closed. Medical infrastructure in Tripolitania and Fezzan are coming under increasing strain as the number of cases increase. Efforts to accelerate the vaccine campaign in areas with higher caseloads are ongoing. Although various measures aimed at containing and reducing the spread are decreed from a national and local level, adherence from the population remains low. ▪ Crime (including carjackings, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions.

Medium to Long Term Outlook

▪ Enduring divisions are resurfacing, threatening the progress seen in the first half of 2021 when a new united government was installed. The UN process and Berlin outcomes are beginning to unravel which is leaving space for other external actors to increase their influence, furthering their own agendas. The UN is likely to come under increasing pressure to get the political process back on track in a bid to keep the December elections a realistic prospect however, various compromises will be needed. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it tries to move towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary

Political Developments

▪ The House of Representatives (HoR) sent a committee to Rome this week to draft an election law with technical support from the High National Elections Commission (HNEC) and UNSMIL. On July 29, they had reportedly finalized a draft and were preparing to debate and vote on it at the next HoR session on August 02. Current indicators suggest the HoR is not planning on consulting the High Council of State (HCS), a scenario that would likely lead to further tensions between the two. ▪ The HoR is to hold a session on August 02 to “complete” the 2021 budget law, the presential and parliamentary elections law, approve the distribution of electoral districts throughout the country and respond to the Presidential Council (PC) on its nomination of the position of the head of General Intelligence. Speaker of the HoR, Aquila Saleh, called for MPs to attend after this week’s meeting

was suspended after they failed to reach a quorum. He also appeared to suggest that the house

would vote regardless of how many MPs attended. ▪ Saleh also warned this week that a new eastern parallel government could emerge if elections do

Proprietary not take place. He further claimed that the GNU had become a “Tripoli Government” and stated

there was no further need for the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) to meet.

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▪ The LPDF Bridging Committee held its third virtual meeting on July 31 to consider four proposals submitted by its members for the constitution. The meeting also discussed ways to resolve the remaining differences on the existing Legal Committee draft. Discussions are set to continue on August 02. The committee is expected to put forward proposals to the full LPDF for their consideration. UNSMIL has reminded the committee of the time pressures the process is under with August 01 the extended deadline set by HNEC for the constitution to be in place. ▪ Saif al-Islam has burst back onto the Libyan political scene, giving an interview with an American news outlet in which he states: “I am a free man and I’m organising a political return.” Shortly after the interview was published, a spokesman for the ICC, Fadi al-Abdullah, confirmed that an ICC arrest warrant for al-Islam remained extant for war crimes committed during the 2011 revolution. ▪ The HNEC extended the deadline for voters to register for the December elections. This came as the number of people registering began to increase, suggesting a growing grassroots support for the elections in December. ▪ Unconfirmed reports suggested this week that a deal had been broker by Cairo between Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah and Field Marshal (LNA) Khalifa Haftar regarding the state budget. The two men were expected to meet face to face in Benghazi as a result however this was soon dismissed by other reports suggesting that Haftar was angered over the prime minister’s allocation of funds to Tripolitania armed groups while restricting funds to the LNA.

Military Developments

▪ The coastal road between Abu Grain and Sirte was finally reopened on July 30 following a meeting of the 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC). The move is a significant step forward in the full implementation of the October 2020 ceasefire and could be an indicator that a deal on the withdrawal of foreign fighters is making progress. This comes after the US claimed talks between Ankara and Moscow were progressing well on the issue and Field Marshal (LNA) Khalifa Haftar stated that for peace in Libya, foreign forces and mercenaries must withdraw, suggesting he is preparing his support base. ▪ The reopening of the route came after another western military delegation, headed by Chief of the General Staff (Western Forces) Mohammed al-Haddad, visited Moscow. It was his second visit and came after an LNA delegation visit to Russia days before. ▪ Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu stated this week that IS has begun transferring operatives from Syria and Libya to Afghanistan. He claimed the US military withdrawal was creating room for terrorist elements. ▪ An LNA delegation led by Chief of General Staff (LNA) Abdel Razek Al-Nadori, visited Sabah for the second time in a week on July 30 to inspect LNA forces in the area. This follows a visit on July 24 when Nadori visited military camps, barracks, and security checkpoints.

Security Developments

▪ Mohamed al-Kani, commander of Kani Brigade, was killed by the LNA during a raid on his farm in Benghazi on July 27 after he allegedly resisted arrest. The militia was ousted from Tarhunah in mid- 2020 after siding with the LNA during Operation Flood of Dignity. Since then, a significant number of mass graves have been uncovered around the town with Kani being held responsible. ▪ Minister of Interior (GNU) Khaled Mazen met with members of the Security Directorate of Sabha during his visit to the city this week. The meeting discussed several topics regarding security with Mazen briefed on the obstacles faced by local security officials. ▪ Clashes took place in Gorji, Tripoli during the morning of July 27 between SDF and GSS. GSS and SSA forces reportedly mobilized in response to the clashes however the area calmed quickly as the city’s morning routine began. ▪ Clashes erupted in the Zawiyah area in the early hours of July 30 between Al Far/ Othman al-Lahab

and 55 Battalion/ Abu Ozriba. The clashes, which took place in several areas, erupted after Al-Far elements allegedly shot at, and may have kidnapped, SSA elements from a vehicle south of Surman. By the late evening, reports indicated that a ceasefire had been agreed.

Proprietary ▪ Clashes were also reported in Najila between the Janzour Knights and Ramzi al-Lafaa after the

Knights refused to allow a convoy from Lafaa’s militia to pass during the early morning of July 30.

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Oil & Gas Developments

▪ On July 25, a well eruption occurred in the 103D field, operated by the Zueitina Oil Company. An additional blowout preventer was installed by Libyan engineers and technicians which stopped the gas leak and closed the well on July 28. ▪ The Ministry of Oil (GNU) invited British Petroleum (BP) to invest in Libya this week. The ministry stated it was in accordance with the GNUs calls to encourage foreign investment and stimulate the return of foreign investors. It also appreciated the efforts of the UK government to help stabilize Libya and support its sovereignty. It is unclear if BP is interested in investing in Libya. It is possible the company may be more interested in renewable energy projects which the Libyan government is pursuing than its oil & gas sector. ▪ Schlumberger is intent on drilling 13 exploration wells off the coast of Libya. The wells are part of expansion activity by the company in Libya which includes work on new wells in the Sirte Oil Basin.

International Developments

▪ This week, Tunisian President Kais Saied dismissed his prime minister and suspended parliament for 30 days. The decision came after protests and was met on the streets with celebrations however critics and political opponents labeled the move a “coup.” The move was welcomed by Haftar while the president of the HCS was critical. The events in Tunisia have the potential to shift regional power structures which could ultimately impact Libya.

Coronavirus

▪ The GNU imposed a 14-day curfew from 1800 to 0600hrs from July 27 in the Central Region, Greater Tripoli, West Coast, and the Nafousa Mountains. Initial reports suggest that this was being largely adhered to in a number of areas however it is yet unclear what, if any, impact it will have on the spread of COVID-19. ▪ Libya imported medical-grade oxygen from Egypt this week as supplies remained under pressure from rising COVID-19 cases. ▪ The Minister of Health (GNU), Dr Ali Al-Zanati, stated that 916,000 people have registered for the vaccine. Vaccine take-up has been slow however it appears to have accelerated in recent weeks as cases spread quickly. Threat Matrix

Region Political Terrorism Militancy Crime Kidnap

Tripolitania High High High High High

Tripoli High High High-Extreme High High

Cyrenaica High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Benghazi High Moderate-High Moderate High High

Fezzan High High High-Extreme High High

Sabha High High High High High

Threat Scale Minimal Low Moderate High Extreme

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Key Dates

Date Occasion Comment

August 01, 2021 Extended deadline for election law HNEC

August 02, 2021 HoR session on budget and election law

August 10, 2021 Muharram (Islamic New Year) Public Holiday

September 16, 2021 Martyr’s Day

October 19, 2021 The Prophets Birthday Public Holiday

December 24, 2021 Libyan elections / Independence Day Public Holiday

Assessment

Political Developments

Significant step forward on the military track against no concrete political progress There has been little progress politically this week in Libya, however, a significant step forward on the military track was achieved with the reopening of the coastal road west of Sirte. The route was finally reopened on July 30 after a meeting of the 5+5 Joint Military Committee in Sirte which itself came after military delegations from both sides travelled to Moscow over the past few weeks. These visits were likely instrumental in paving the way for the road to reopen and indicates that Moscow is increasingly able to influence western Libya. The reopening of the route is a key part of the October 2020 ceasefire and a step towards the withdrawal of foreign fighters with various international actors using the occasion to again call for the full implementation of the ceasefire.

Saif al-Islam is alive and planning a political comeback Saif al-Islam, the second son of Muammar Gadhafi, caused a stir this week when the New York Times released an interview with him conducted in May. The interview took place in Zintan where al-Islam had been imprisoned during the revolution. He stated attitudes from his captors began to change towards him in 2014 as the country was engulfed in civil war. He was widely reported to have been released in June 2017. Since his release, he has maintained an air of mystery. His whereabouts have been unknown, if often speculated on, and he has communicated mainly through his lawyer until this interview.

Security Developments

LNA: Mohamed al-Kani killed during operation to arrest him At around 1100hrs on July 27, the LNA launched an arrest operation at a farm in Boatni, Benghazi. The operation aimed to arrest Mohamed al-Kani, commander of Tarhunah’s Kani Brigade. Kani reportedly resisted and was shot dead during the raid along with a companion while another was arrested. The LNA stated that Kani was wanted due to criminal complaints attributed to him "during the 2019 war under the guise of the armed forces (meaning the LNA), and before that during his subordination to the Sarraj Government and the GNC." A number of his associates were also arrested in Benghazi, Ajdabiya,

and Tobruk.

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Coronavirus

Cases spiked again this week after a reduction last week which was likely due to Eid al-Adha. This week saw 19,987 positive cases compared to 11,954. The GNU has imposed a nightly curfew in Tripolitania as they try to stem the spread of COVID-19, however, the effects of Eid, which saw many people travel to their home areas for the holidays, could fuel cases this coming week. Regional Assessment

Tripolitania Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Armed Attack - Jul 27, Tripoli Province, Ain Zara: Unconfirmed reports claim that several members of the Ain Zara Municipal Council were kidnapped/ detained by TRB. ▪ Armed Attack - Jul 27, Misrata Province, Bani Walid: Unidentified armed assailants carried out an attack on the prison in Bani Walid during dark hours. Several inmates reportedly escaped while the assailants captured some security staff and stole a vehicle. ▪ HG - Jul 27 03:30, Az Zawiyah Province, Antiques Junction: Ahmed Najm Al-Din Al-Baliazi was killed during an arrest operation by Security Directorate Support Force in Sabratah. Baliazi, a resident of the Jabbar area, was killed along with one other when his friend, Ali al-Gadi, threw a hand grenade at security forces. Three others were wounded. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 27 06:50, Tripoli Province, Gorji: Armed clashes took place between GSS and SDF. ▪ Troop Movements - Jul 27 07:30, Tripoli Province, Suq Al-Thalata Roundabout: GSS and SSA units reportedly mobilised following armed clashes in Gorji. The area was reported calm by around 0800hrs with no obvious indicator of an increased security force presence. ▪ Arrest - Jul 27 18:55, Misrata Province, Wadi Tisket: 444 Combat Unit carried out an arrest operation against a group of people accused of plotting to disrupt water supplies on the GMMR in order to influence public opinion in Tripoli. The operation followed two days of information gathering. ▪ Mass Grave - Jul 28, Al-Murqub Province, Tarhunah: Two further mass graves have been located in the 5 Kilo Agricultural Project area. The first grave contained two bodies and the second, ten. ▪ Troop Movements - Jul 28 18:00, Tripoli Province, Tajura: 51 Brigade has taken over the Military Engineering HQ claiming it was being used by "criminal elements." ▪ SAF - Jul 28 21:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Sabratah: Unidentified people driving a Hyundai Santafe shot at a patrol vehicle belonging to the Security Directorate. A force from the directorate with support from the SSA then carried out patrols and checkpoints in the city. No injuries were reported. ▪ Security Operation - Jul 28 21:30, Misrata Province, Bani Walid: 444 Combat Brigade stormed locations associated with organised criminals connected with fuel smuggling and other illegal acts. Two members of 444 and one smuggler were killed in the operation. ▪ Security Operation - Jul 28 21:30, Misrata Province, Wadi Zamzam: 444 Combat Brigade stormed locations associated with organised criminals connected with fuel smuggling and other illegal acts. ▪ Security Operation - Jul 28 21:30, Al-Jabal Al-Gharbi Province, Wadi Garza: 444 Combat Brigade stormed locations associated with organised criminals connected with fuel smuggling and other illegal acts. ▪ Kidnap - Jul 29 11:50, Tripoli Province, Sidi Sayeh: A man was kidnapped along the River Road by unknown perpetrators. ▪ Arrest - Jul 30, Tripoli Province, Janzour: The Ministry of Interior (GNU) has announced the arrest of a kidnap and ransom gang.

▪ Armed Clash - Jul 30 00:30, Tripoli Province, Bukhari Checkpoint: Clashes erupted between Janzour Knights and Ramzi al-Lafaa after the Knights stopped a Lafaa convoy. ▪ Armed Attack - Jul 30 01:55, Az Zawiyah Province, Surman: A drive-by shooting targeted an Avanti

Proprietary vehicle belonging to SSA elements.

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▪ Armed Clash - Jul 30 02:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Maya: Clashes erupted between Al Far/ Othman al-Lahab and 55 Battalion/ Abu Ozriba. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 30 06:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Sumud Checkpoint: Clashes took place between Abu Ozriba/ 55 Battalion and Al Far/ Othman Lahab. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 30 07:30, Az Zawiyah Province, Zawiyah Oil Refinery Road: Clashes took place around the refinery road. Reports indicate that three generation units were affected by the fighting resulting in a loss of 300 megawatts from the grid. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 30 09:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Sumud Checkpoint: Clashes resumed in the area. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 30 10:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Maya: Clashes resumed in the area. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 30 10:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Sumud Checkpoint: Clashes resumed in the area. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 30 11:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Omar al-Mokhtar Street: Clashes took place between Abu Ozriba/ 55 Battalion and Al Far/ Othman Lahab. ▪ Security Announcement - Jul 30 12:00, Sirte Province, Sirte: The coastal road near Sirte (between Abu Grain and Checkpoint 30, west of Sirte) has reopened following a 5+5 Joint Military Commission meeting. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 30 14:50, Az Zawiyah Province, Maya: Clashes resumed in the area. ▪ Troop Movements - Jul 30 15:35, Tripoli Province, Jadda’im: Forces mobilised with heavy equipment including tanks. ▪ Ceasefire - Jul 30 20:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Maya: Reports indicate that a ceasefire had been agreed between Abu Ozriba/ 55 Battalion and Al Far/ Othman Lahab following several clashes between the sides. ▪ Demonstration - Jul 30 23:10, Sirte Province, Sirte: A demonstration was held in support of Saif al- Islam following the release of his interview with the New York Times. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 31 16:30, Az Zawiyah Province, Al-Fassi: Clashes erupted between to armed groups over hashish trafficking.

Cyrenaica Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 27 11:00, Benghazi Province, Boatni: Mohamed Al-Kani was killed by the LNA during a raid on his farm in Boatni, Benghazi. ▪ Demonstration - Jul 29, Kufra Province, Kufra: The Tebu held a protest against the HNEC over issues around being able to register for the elections, stated it had pursued an exclusionary approach towards them. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 29 21:00, Benghazi Province, Sarty: A Libyan national was shot and killed. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 30 21:30, Benghazi Province, Wahieshi: A Libyan national was shot and killed. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 31 00:00, Benghazi Province, Al-Kish: Two individuals were shot dead by unidentified perpetrators mobile in two vehicles. ▪ Armed Robbery - Jul 31 13:00, Benghazi Province, Hawary: An armed group shot and killed a shop owner during an armed robbery. ▪ SAF - Jul 31 21:30, Benghazi Province, Shebnah: SAF was reported in the area. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 31 23:30, Benghazi Province, Airport Road (Benghazi): A police officer was shot by unidentified perpetrators mobile in a Toyota vehicle.

Fezzan Region

Significant Incidents ▪ HG - Jul 25 13:30, Sabha Province, District 80: A hand grenade exploded wounding three Libyan

nationals. Proprietary ▪ SAF - Jul 25 15:00, Sabha Province, Mahdia: A dispute led to a shooting resulting in one person

being wounded.

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▪ Carjacking - Jul 26 00:00, Sabha Province, Secondary Neighbourhood: An armed carjacking took place. ▪ Carjacking - Jul 26 00:00, Sabha Province, Qurdah: A Hyundai Elantra was carjacked by armed perpetrators. ▪ SAF - Jul 26 13:50, Sabha Province, Mansheya: SAF was reported in the area. ▪ Kidnap - Jul 27 00:00, Sabha Province, Sabha: A man was kidnapped by unidentified perpetrators. ▪ Surveillance - Jul 27, Al-Jufra Province, Jufra: The LNA Airforce conducted reconnaissance flights over Jufra and northern Fezzan after receiving information about the movements of "extremist groups." ▪ RPG - Jul 27 21:00, Sabha Province, Mansheya: An RPG impacted into a house. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 28 01:00, Sabha Province, Sahka Neighbourhood: Armed clashes erupted. ▪ Carjacking - Jul 28 11:15, Sabha Province, Sabha Faculty of Science: A vehicle was carjacked by armed perpetrators. ▪ IED - Jul 29, Wadi Al-Shatii Province, Hasawna: IEDs were planted by unidentified perpetrators around water plant No.353, destroying it. ▪ Airstrike - Jul 31, Murzuq Province, Libya - Chadian Border: The LNA carried out an airstrike on around 12 Chadian rebel vehicles near the border with Chad. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 31 21:00, Sabha Province, Jadid: A Libyan national was shot while driving.

Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader's own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report

should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.

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Acronym List

AQ - Al-Qaeda BAM – Al Bunyan Al Marsous (Misratan-led) BDB – Benghazi Defense Brigade / Saraya Defend Benghazi (SDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) CBL – Central Bank of Libya CNI – Critical National Infrastructure DACOCT - Deterrence Apparatus for Combating Organized Crime and Terrorism (SDF) DDR - Disarmament, demobilising and reintegration DF – Direct Fire DPF – Derna Protection Force (an amalgamation of all militias in Derna, including the MSCD) GECOL – General Electricity Company of Libya GMMR – Great Man-made River GNA – Government of National Accord (2016) GNC – General National Congress (2012) GNU – Government of National Unity (2021) GTUC - Greater Tripoli Union Council (Tripoli militias and others, established in June 2020) HNEC – High National Elections Commission HoR – House of Representatives (Tobruk-based) IDF – Indirect Fire (mortars/rockets) IDP - Internally Displaced Persons IED - Improvised Explosive Device IOC - International Oil Company IS - Islamic State LIFG – Libyan Islamic Fighting Group LNA – Libyan National Army LNG – Libyan National Guard LPA – Libyan Political Agreement (2015) LPDF - Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (2020) LROR - Libyan Revolutionary Operations Room MoD - Ministry of Defense MoF - Ministry of Finance MoFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoI - Ministry of Interior MoJ - Ministry of Justice MoO - Ministry of Oil MoT - Ministry of Transportation MSCD – Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (AQ aligned) NFDK - No Further Details Known NGO - Non-Governmental Organisation (aid/charity) NOC – National Oil Company NSG – National Salvation Government (GNC) NSTR - Nothing Significant To Report PC – Presidency Council (GNA) PG – Presidential Guard PFG - Petroleum Facilities Guard RPG - Rocket Propelled Grenade RSCB - Revolutionary Shura Council of Benghazi RTA - Road Traffic Accident SAF - Small Arms Fire SDB – Saraya Defend Benghazi / BDB (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) SDF – Rada Deterrence Force/ Special Deterrence Force/ Rada Technical - An improvised weapon-mounted pick-up truck TPF – Tripoli Protection Force (TRB, Nawasi 8 Force, Bab Tajoura Brigade and Ghneiwa umbrella group, established in December 2018)

UXO - Unexploded Ordnance

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