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Libya Weekly Operational Preview

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Libya Weekly Operational Preview . Libya Weekly Operational Preview August 01, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya Proprietary GardaWorld GardaWorld © 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary 1 202 © 1 Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 3 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 Oil & Gas Developments ...................................................................................................................... 5 International Developments .................................................................................................................. 5 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 5 Key Dates .............................................................................................. 6 Assessment ........................................................................................... 6 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Regional Assessment ............................................................................ 7 Tripolitania Region ................................................................................................................................ 7 Cyrenaica Region ................................................................................................................................. 8 Fezzan Region ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Acronym List ........................................................................................ 10 GardaWorld .......................................................................................... 11 Information Services ........................................................................................................................... 11 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management.................................................... 11 This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya Operational report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya. Proprietary GardaWorld GardaWorld 1 202 © 2 Outlook Short Term Outlook ▪ Political progress is slowing as enduring divisions surface within the Libyan political scene. The proposed December elections are looking increasingly at risk after the LPDF failed to come to a consensus at the start of July. The UN-backed process is beginning to show some signs of fracturing as the pressure builds. With tensions flaring, efforts to find a consensus have become more difficult. ▪ Cases of COVID-19 have begun increasing significantly in Libya, likely driven by the introduction of the Delta variant. As a result, the border with Tunisia has been closed. Medical infrastructure in Tripolitania and Fezzan are coming under increasing strain as the number of cases increase. Efforts to accelerate the vaccine campaign in areas with higher caseloads are ongoing. Although various measures aimed at containing and reducing the spread are decreed from a national and local level, adherence from the population remains low. ▪ Crime (including carjackings, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions. Medium to Long Term Outlook ▪ Enduring divisions are resurfacing, threatening the progress seen in the first half of 2021 when a new united government was installed. The UN process and Berlin outcomes are beginning to unravel which is leaving space for other external actors to increase their influence, furthering their own agendas. The UN is likely to come under increasing pressure to get the political process back on track in a bid to keep the December elections a realistic prospect however, various compromises will be needed. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it tries to move towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary Political Developments ▪ The House of Representatives (HoR) sent a committee to Rome this week to draft an election law with technical support from the High National Elections Commission (HNEC) and UNSMIL. On July 29, they had reportedly finalized a draft and were preparing to debate and vote on it at the next HoR session on August 02. Current indicators suggest the HoR is not planning on consulting the High Council of State (HCS), a scenario that would likely lead to further tensions between the two. ▪ The HoR is to hold a session on August 02 to “complete” the 2021 budget law, the presential and parliamentary elections law, approve the distribution of electoral districts throughout the country and respond to the Presidential Council (PC) on its nomination of the position of the head of General Intelligence. Speaker of the HoR, Aquila Saleh, called for MPs to attend after this week’s meeting was suspended after they failed to reach a quorum. He also appeared to suggest that the house would vote regardless of how many MPs attended. ▪ Saleh also warned this week that a new eastern parallel government could emerge if elections do Proprietary not take place. He further claimed that the GNU had become a “Tripoli Government” and stated there was no further need for the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) to meet. GardaWorld GardaWorld 1 202 © 3 ▪ The LPDF Bridging Committee held its third virtual meeting on July 31 to consider four proposals submitted by its members for the constitution. The meeting also discussed ways to resolve the remaining differences on the existing Legal Committee draft. Discussions are set to continue on August 02. The committee is expected to put forward proposals to the full LPDF for their consideration. UNSMIL has reminded the committee of the time pressures the process is under with August 01 the extended deadline set by HNEC for the constitution to be in place. ▪ Saif al-Islam has burst back onto the Libyan political scene, giving an interview with an American news outlet in which he states: “I am a free man and I’m organising a political return.” Shortly after the interview was published, a spokesman for the ICC, Fadi al-Abdullah, confirmed that an ICC arrest warrant for al-Islam remained extant for war crimes committed during the 2011 revolution. ▪ The HNEC extended the deadline for voters to register for the December elections. This came as the number of people registering began to increase, suggesting a growing grassroots support for the elections in December. ▪ Unconfirmed reports suggested this week that a deal had been broker by Cairo between Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah and Field Marshal (LNA) Khalifa Haftar regarding the state budget. The two men were expected to meet face to face in Benghazi as a result however this was soon dismissed by other reports suggesting that Haftar was angered over the prime minister’s allocation of funds to Tripolitania armed groups while restricting funds to the LNA. Military Developments ▪ The coastal road between Abu Grain and Sirte was finally reopened on July 30 following a meeting of the 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC). The move is a significant step forward in the full implementation of the October 2020 ceasefire and could be an indicator that a deal on the withdrawal of foreign fighters is making progress. This comes after the US claimed talks between Ankara and Moscow were progressing well on the issue and Field Marshal (LNA) Khalifa Haftar stated that for peace in Libya, foreign forces and
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