Libya Weekly Operational Preview

. Libya Weekly

Operational Preview

April 11, 2021

Prepared by:

Risk Analysis Team, Libya

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Outlook ...... 3 Short Term Outlook ...... 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ...... 3 Executive Summary ...... 3 Political Developments ...... 3 Security Developments ...... 4 Infrastructure ...... 4 Coronavirus ...... 4 Threat Matrix ...... 5 Key Dates ...... 5 Assessment ...... 5 Political Developments ...... 5 Security Developments ...... 6 Coronavirus ...... 6 Regional Assessment ...... 6 Tripolitania Region ...... 6 Cyrenaica Region ...... 7 Fezzan Region ...... 8 Acronym List ...... 9 GardaWorld ...... 10 Information Services ...... 10 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management...... 10

This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya.

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Short Term Outlook

▪ The political landscape in Libya continues to evolve at a pace. The new Presidential Council (PC) is driving forward, keen to realign international stakeholders and promote domestic reconciliation and reconstruction. The formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) is another major milestone in the country’s progress back to stability, but both the GNU and PC face a number of challenges in the coming months as the country prepares to move to elections in December. ▪ While the political environment is seeing significant movement, the military situation remains stagnant. The Sirte to Jufra frontline remains in situ, as do foreign fighters. The situation is however calm, although there remains the potential for isolated incidents in response to political developments. The 5+5 Joint Military Commission continues its work, but it is unclear how much progress can be expected this year with the GNU restricted in how much it can meaningfully shape the security track. ▪ COVID-19 continues to affect Libya and travel in and out through Turkey and Tunisia although, at present, PCR testing is helping to keep travel corridors open. The country is expected to begin its delayed vaccination program and despite localized lockdowns and curfews, coronavirus continues to have little effect on normal daily life. ▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remain common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions.

Medium to Long Term Outlook

▪ The successful implementation of the new PC and GNU are notable achievements, putting Libya back on a path to unity, but many threats to this progress remain. In many respects, the GNU has been seen as a relatively weak body, but this could work in Libya’s favour, leaving the prime minister room to continue driving the process forward as he builds a broad support base across the various factions. The country is gearing up for elections in December 2021, an ambitious timeframe that will need various foundations to be laid in the months ahead by the new government. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it moves towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary

Political Developments

▪ The new Presidential Council has continued high levels of domestic and international engagement. The Prime Ministers of Malta and Italy as well as the EU Council President all visited Tripoli this week as a number of nations look to reopen their embassies and consulates. The return of international diplomats to Tripoli and Benghazi marks a new era after conflict saw many leave. Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah also conducted visits to both Kuwait and the UAE. ▪ Bilateral relations with Greece have been restored after a visit by the Greek Prime Minister,

Kyriakos Mitsotakis, to Tripoli. Efforts are now underway to reopen their embassy and consulate. ▪ The Head of the Presidential Council, Mohamed Menfi, launched the National Reconciliation Commission on April 05. The move is part of a comprehensive national reconciliation effort by the

new government which saw a number of visits by both Menfi and Debibah to marginalized and

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© areas in need of reconstruction through the week. National reconciliation efforts are expected to focus on reconstruction and the provision of services by the government, the latter of which is a key policy for the GNU. ▪ The legal committee of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) met in Tunisia this week and was able to agree on the constitutional norms. It is now due to present these along with its final report to the LPDF. This reportedly includes a mechanism for the President to be appointed by the HoR rather than a popular vote. Unconfirmed reports have suggested that the agreement was strongly opposed by six of the 18 committee members, all of who are reportedly linked to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Security Developments

▪ The head of the Zuwara Security Directorate, Imad Al-Din Masoud Abaza, was detained by a suspected SDF force on April 06. The arrest triggered a demonstration at the entrance to the nearby Mellitah Oil & Gas Facility however reports indicate that the facility remained operational. ▪ SDF targeted security force elements in Tripoli as well through the week. On April 05, Ayan Anjim, a member of TRB who holds a command position at the Ain Zara/Ruwaimi prison, was arrested. On April 09, SDF carried out a raid at the 427 Battalion Border Guard Camp to arrest what they called “criminal elements.” ▪ Tensions between SDF and the General Security Agency (Zintani) have also continued in the Hay Andalous and Gorji areas after SDF again attempted to enter the area on April 04. As with previous incidents, the General Security Agency forced SDF to withdraw and fired shots into the air in a warning to stay out with tensions remaining high into the following day. On April 07, a minor clash occurred between the two armed groups. ▪ The General Authority for Research and Identification of Missing Persons announced that two further mass graves were discovered in the Alrabet area of Tarhuna. These are the latest to be discovered in the area with reporting suggesting most, if not all, are dating back to the last offensive on Tripoli when the town was controlled by Kani Brigade (aka 9 Brigade after they aligned with the LNA). At least 300 bodies have been found so far in several mass graves in the town since the end of the conflict. ▪ Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has confirmed that one person was killed and two teenagers were wounded in a shooting at the Al Mabani Investigation and Deportation Unit in Tripoli on April 08. Indiscriminate shots were reportedly fired at detained migrants by guards after tensions rose in the overcrowded facility.

Infrastructure

▪ The Man-Made River Authority (MMRA) announced that approximately 170 wells are out of service due to sabotage and illegal connections. The statement was made following a visit to the Al- Hasawna Water System to assess the effect of recent attacks on the feeding wells. The MMRA warned that the continued attacks and the inability to protect the project threatened the water supply in the west of the country.

Coronavirus

▪ Prime Minister Debibah has received his first COVID-19 vaccination dose on April 10 as Libya looks to kick start its vaccination program. This came as Libya received 100,000 doses of the Sputnik V vaccination. This is the third shipment of vaccinations into the country and the second of the Sputnik vaccine which are being provided by the UAE. The GNU has announced that the vaccination of vulnerable groups, medical personnel, and the elderly is to start within the next few days. ▪ The COVID-19 curfew in Sirte was lifted on April 09 after a decision by the Steering Council. A

partial lockdown is in place in Benghazi while lockdowns are still in effect in Sabha, Kabaw, Jadu,

and Gharyan however local reports suggest these are not being widely adhered to.

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Region Political Terrorism Militancy Crime Kidnap

Tripolitania High-Extreme High High High High

Tripoli Extreme High High High High

Cyrenaica High Moderate Low Moderate Moderate-High

Benghazi High-Extreme Moderate-High Moderate High High

Fezzan High High-Extreme High High High

Sabha High High-Extreme High High-Extreme High

Threat Scale Minimal Low Moderate High Extreme

Key Dates

Date Occasion Comment

April 12, 2021 Beginning of Ramadan +/- 1 day

May 01, 2021 May Day Public Holiday

May 12 - 14, 2021 Eid al-Fitr Public Holiday

July 19, 2021 Day of Arafah Public Holiday

July 20 – 22, 2021 Eid al-Adha Public Holiday

Assessment

Political Developments

Dbeibah and Kubis visit the UAE Late on April 07, Prime Minister Dbeibah met with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed al-Nahyan in the UAE. Sheikh Mohamed tweeted the following morning that it had been “an honour” to meet Libya’s new prime minister. He further stated: “Libya will overcome its challenges and we stand at the side of the Libyan people at this critical moment. The new road map will hopefully lead to stability and unity.” He also stated that the UAE “is looking forward to further growing these relations over the coming period.”

The meeting was followed by a three-day visit by SRSG Jan Kubis who met with Minister of Foreign Affairs and international cooperation, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan, State Minister of Foreign Affairs, Khalifa Shaheen al-Marar, and Diplomatic Advisor to the President, Dr. Anwar Gargash.

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SDF actively targeting security force members The Special Deterrence Force (SDF) has been active this week, targeting members of other security forces.

▪ On April 05, the force arrested Ayan Anjim, a member of TRB who holds a command position at the Ain Zara/Ruwaimi prison. He was released soon after. ▪ On April 06, SDF was reportedly behind the arrest of the head of the Zuwara Security Directorate, Imad Al-Din Masoud Abaza, on the authority of the Public Prosecutor. ▪ On April 04, SDF attempted to enter the Hay Andalous area, resulting in shots fired by General Security Agency. Tensions continued to simmer until a minor clash occurred between the two on April 07 in which two people were wounded. ▪ On 09 April, SDF raided the 427 Battalion Border Guard/ Thunderbolt Camp in Salahuddin to arrest members for various crimes including carjackings, kidnappings, and prostitution. A clash ensued following the raid in which one fighter was killed.

Coronavirus

Reported cases have continued the recent upward trend with 5531 incidents reported compared to 5445 last week. Libya has now received its third shipment of vaccines and is expected to begin its delayed vaccination program. Regional Assessment

Tripolitania Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Kidnap - Apr 04 01:00, Tripoli Province, Abu Saleem: Two females were kidnapped by unknown perpetrators. The SSA responded to the incident. ▪ Armed clash - Apr 04 02:30, Tripoli Province, Hay Andalous: A dispute between SDF and members of the General Security Agency resulted in the discharge of weapons in the Tuesday Market area. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Apr 04 19:00, Tripoli Province, Suq al-Juma: A taxi driver named as Taha Ma'ref was shot and killed. ▪ Kidnap - Apr 04 22:00, Sirte Province, Sirte: An individual was kidnapped in the al-Naqah area of the city. ▪ Arrest - Apr 05, Tripoli Province, Ben Ashour: TRB member Ayad Anjim was arrested by SDF (RADA) forces. He was reportedly released at some point on Apr 5 or 6. ▪ Security Operation - Apr 05 14:10, Al-Jafara Province, Aziziyah: A RADA security operation was reported in the Aziziyah area involving the use of searches and VCPs. ▪ IDF - Apr 06 00:00, Tripoli Province, Abu Sitta: A suspected IDF impact was reported in the area of the Diabetic Clinic on Al Shat Road. ▪ Arrest - Apr 06 06:00, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Zuwara: The arrest of the Head of the Zuwara Security Directorate was arrested by suspected SDF personnel. ▪ Border Closure - Apr 06 12:00, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Ras Ajdir: The border crossing at Ras Ajdir was reportedly blocked with sandbanks in response to the earlier arrest of the Head of the Zuwara Security Directorate.

▪ Demonstration - Apr 06 12:00, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Mellitah Terminal: An armed group was reported at the main entrance to Mellitah O&G complex. The gathering was in relation to the earlier arrest in Zuwara. The group withdrew after approximately 1hr. ▪ CP/ Roadblock - Apr 06 12:00, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Ajaylat: CPs were established in the

Sabratha and Ajaylat areas following the earlier arrest.

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© ▪ Demonstration - Apr 06 12:30, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Mellitah Terminal: Protestors forced the closure of the main gate at Mellitah. The protest is in response to the arrest of the Head of the Zuwara Security Directorate. ▪ SAF - Apr 06 23:00, Tripoli Province, Wadi Alrabea: SAF was reported in the area of the MMR CP. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Apr 07 15:30, Al-Jabal Al-Gharbi Province, Gharyan: An individual was shot and killed in a targeted attack near Gharyan power station. ▪ Armed Clash - Apr 07 22:00, Tripoli Province, Tripoli: An armed clash was reported between GSA and SDF forces resulting in two injured. ▪ Armed Clash - Apr 08 19:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Sabratah: An armed clash was reported between a youth group and an unknown militia. ▪ Armed Clash - Apr 08 19:00, Al-Murqub Province, Zliten: An armed clash was reported in the area of Asmarya University. ▪ SAF - Apr 08Evening, Tripoli Province, Mabani IDU: One person was killed and two teenagers were wounded in a shooting at the Al Mabani Investigation and Deportation Unit (IDU). ▪ Assault - Apr 09 12:30, Misrata Province, Misrata: A number of expatriate staff reportedly assaulted members of the Municipal Guard after the latter had seized belongings. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Apr 09 14:50, Tripoli Province, Salahuddin: An armed group member was murdered. ▪ Armed Attack - Apr 09 16:30, Misrata Province, Wadi Zamzam: An armed group forced the closure of the Wadi Zamzam Municipal Building in protest over the appointment of a new mayor. ▪ Sabotage - Apr 09 21:00, Sirte Province, Acadouko Conference Hall: An armed group targeted the Audit Bureau office near the Acadouko Conference Hall. Items were also stolen. ▪ Security Operation - Apr 09 23:00, Tripoli Province, Simfero Salahuddin: SDF carried out a raid on the 427 Battalion Border Guard Camp/ Thunderbolt in Salahuddin, in an attempt to arrest armed group members allegedly involved in kidnappings, carjackings, robberies, and prostitution. ▪ Armed Clash - Apr 09 23:30, Tripoli Province, Simfero Salahuddin: A separate armed group reportedly responded to the SDF raid at 427 Battalion Border Guard Camp resulting in clashes with SDF. One fighter was killed while others received minor injuries. Further arrests were also made by SDF. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Apr 10 23:30, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Ajaylat: Essam al-Taieb was killed in an armed confrontation with the Shalfuh militia.

Cyrenaica Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Kidnap - Apr 04, Benghazi Province, Fuwayha: An individual was kidnapped by an unknown group. ▪ IDF - Apr 04 02:00, Benghazi Province, Bohdema: A suspected IDF launch was reported in the Bohdema area. ▪ Armed Clash - Apr 04 02:00, Benghazi Province, Laithi: An armed clash was reported in the Al- Laithi area. ▪ Armed Clash - Apr 04 03:00, Benghazi Province, Benghazi: A suspected armed clash was reported in the Al Hawari area. ▪ Armed Clash - Apr 05 00:00, Benghazi Province, Benghazi: An armed clash was reported in the Wahaisha area. ▪ Kidnap - Apr 05 20:50, Benghazi Province, Fuwayha: An alleged member of the Internal Security Agency was kidnapped in the area of the Daqadosta Buildings. ▪ Kidnap - Apr 05 23:00, Benghazi Province, Benghazi: Following an attempted kidnapping of Egyptian nationals an armed clash was reported between the perpetrators and the security response. ▪ Other - Apr 07 18:55, Al-Wahat Province, Ajdabiya: A conference being held by the Ajadibya youth

forum was disrupted by Internal Security forces. The forum was primarily discussing the return of IDPs, national reconciliation, and institutional security weaknesses. ▪ Armed Clash - Apr 07 19:30, Benghazi Province, Daryanah: An armed clash in Daryanah resulted

in the death of a CID officer.

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© ▪ Kidnap - Apr 09 23:00, Benghazi Province, Benina Airport: An employee of Libyan Airlines was reported to have been kidnapped near Benina Airport. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Apr 10 21:00, Benghazi Province, Garyounis: The bodies of three unidentified females were found in the Garyounis area. The victims were believed to have been kidnapped.

Fezzan Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Armed Robbery - Apr 04 12:30, Sabha Province, Bardi: A truck driver was the victim of an armed robbery in the Bardi area. ▪ Armed Robbery - Apr 04 13:30, Sabha Province, Sabha: A local national was the victim of an armed robbery in the Secondary area. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Apr 04 18:00, Murzuq Province, Umm Al-Aranib: A local national was shot and killed. ▪ Armed Robbery - Apr 05 23:00, Sabha Province, Sabha: A Sudanese national was killed during an armed robbery. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Apr 06 00:00, Sabha Province, Sabha: Two African nationals were killed in a targeted attack. ▪ Threat Warning - Apr 07, Wadi Al-Hayaa Province, Sharara Oilfield: PFG members threatened to force the stoppage of export operations on Shahara Oil field if their field allowance payment is not reinstated within two weeks. ▪ Armed Robbery - Apr 07 12:30, Sabha Province, Sabha: A truck driver was robbed of cash, phones and other valuables in the area of the Arts Faculty. ▪ Kidnap - Apr 07 20:00, Sabha Province, Samnu: Three local nationals were kidnapped in the al- Zighan area. ▪ Carjacking - Apr 08 13:00, Sabha Province, Abdul Kafi: An armed carjacking was reported in the Abdul Kafi area. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Apr 08 21:00, Wadi Al-Hayaa Province, Obari: An individual was reportedly detained, tortured, and killed in the Obari area. ▪ Kidnap - Apr 08 23:00, Sabha Province, Mansheya: Three Sudanese nationals were reportedly kidnapped in the Mansheya area. ▪ Kidnap - Apr 09 12:00, Sabha Province, Sabha: A child was kidnapped and possibly killed in an incident in the Secondary area. ▪ Armed Robbery - Apr 10 19:00, Sabha Province, Balqees Clinic: Ismail Amoush Al-Targi was killed during an armed robbery near the Balqees Clinic. ▪ Kidnap - Apr 10 20:00, Al-Jufra Province, Sawknah: Three Egyptian nationals were kidnapped between Sawknah and Hun. ▪ Armed Clash - Apr 10 22:30, Sabha Province, Jadid Agricultural Area: An armed robbery in which the victim died earlier in the day resulted in armed clashes.

Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader's own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report

should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.

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AQ - Al-Qaeda BAM – Al Bunyan Al Marsous (Misratan-led) BDB – Benghazi Defense Brigade / Saraya Defend Benghazi (SDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) CBL – Central Bank of Libya CNI – Critical National Infrastructure DACOCT - Deterrence Apparatus for Combating Organized Crime and Terrorism DDR - Disarmament, demobilising and reintegration DF – Direct Fire DPF – Derna Protection Force (an amalgamation of all militias in Derna, including the MSCD) GECOL – General Electricity Company of Libya GMMR – Great Man-made River GNA – Government of National Accord (2016) GNC – General National Congress (2012) GNU – Government of National Unity (2021) GTUC - Greater Tripoli Union Council (Tripoli militias and others, established in June 2020) HNEC – High National Elections Commission HoR – House of Representatives (Tobruk-based) IDF – Indirect Fire (mortars/rockets) IDP - Internally Displaced Persons IED - Improvised Explosive Device IOC - International Oil Company IS - Islamic State LIFG – Libyan Islamic Fighting Group LNA – Libyan National Army LNG – Libyan National Guard LPA – Libyan Political Agreement (2015) LPDF - Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (2020) LROR - Libyan Revolutionary Operations Room MoD - Ministry of Defense MoF - Ministry of Finance MoFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoHE - Ministry of Higher Education MoI - Ministry of Interior MoJ - Ministry of Justice MoO - Ministry of Oil MoT - Ministry of Transportation MSCD – Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (AQ aligned) NFDK - No Further Details Known NGO - Non-Governmental Organisation (aid/charity) NOC – National Oil Company NSG – National Salvation Government (GNC) NSTR - Nothing Significant To Report PC – Presidency Council (GNA) PG – Presidential Guard PFG- Petroleum Facilities Guard RPG - Rocket Propelled Grenade RSCB - Revolutionary Shura Council of Benghazi RTA - Road Traffic Accident SAF - Small Arms Fire SDB – Saraya Defend Benghazi / Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) SDF – Rada Deterrence Force/ Special Deterrence Force/ Rada Technical - An improvised weapon-mounted pick-up truck TPF – Tripoli Protection Force (TRB, Nawasi 8 Force, Bab Tajoura Brigade and Ghneiwa umbrella group, established in December 2018)

UXO - Unexploded Ordnance

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