DOCSLIB.ORG

Libya Weekly Operational Preview

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Libya Weekly Operational Preview . Libya Weekly Operational Preview August 08, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya Proprietary © 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld GardaWorld 1 202 1 © Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 3 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Oil & Gas Developments ...................................................................................................................... 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 5 Key Dates .............................................................................................. 5 Assessment ........................................................................................... 6 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 6 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Regional Assessment ............................................................................ 7 Tripolitania Region ................................................................................................................................ 7 Cyrenaica Region ................................................................................................................................. 8 Fezzan Region ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Offshore .............................................................................................................................................. 10 Acronym List ........................................................................................ 11 GardaWorld .......................................................................................... 12 Information Services ........................................................................................................................... 12 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management.................................................... 12 This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya Operational report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya. Proprietary GardaWorld GardaWorld 1 202 2 © Outlook Short Term Outlook ▪ Political progress is slowing as enduring divisions surface within the Libyan political scene. The proposed December elections are looking increasingly at risk after the LPDF failed to come to a consensus at the start of July. The UN-backed process is beginning to show signs of fracturing as the pressure builds. With tensions flaring, efforts to find a consensus have become more difficult. ▪ Cases of COVID-19 have begun increasing significantly in Libya, likely driven by the introduction of the Delta variant. As a result, the border with Tunisia has been closed and curfews and lockdowns are now in use. Medical infrastructure in Tripolitania and Fezzan are coming under increasing strain as the number of cases increase. Efforts to accelerate the vaccine campaign in areas with higher caseloads are ongoing while additional oxygen supplies have been secured to create a national stockpile. ▪ Crime (including carjackings, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions. Medium to Long Term Outlook ▪ Enduring divisions are resurfacing, threatening the progress seen in the first half of 2021 when a new united government was installed. The UN process and Berlin outcomes are beginning to unravel which is leaving space for other external actors to increase their influence, furthering their own agendas. The UN is likely to come under increasing pressure to get the political process back on track in a bid to keep the December elections a realistic prospect however, various compromises will be needed. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilize Libya as it tries to move towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary Political Developments ▪ The Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) Bridging Proposals Committee (BPC) has been unable to progress the issue of the constitution after four meetings. They have submitted the four proposals back to the full LPDF which is now expected to meet and vote on August 11. The issue of the constitution had been passed to the LPDF which was supposed to act as a “fail-safe” after the House of Representatives (HoR) and the High Council of State (HCS) were unable to come to a consensus. ▪ This week, the HoR failed to vote on the election law drafted by one of their committees in Rome at the end of July. The issue has been postponed until the next HoR session where the issue will be debated again. The HoR has threatened to take a unilateral decision on the issue, excluding the HCS. This is a parallel track that emerged mid-July as the LPDF process began to lose traction and unravel. ▪ The budget remains unapproved, however, there is some optimism growing around the issue after the Government of National Unity (GNU) resubmitted a new draft which included a substantial sum for the Libyan National Army (LNA). Although it also had large sums for some of the Tripoli militia Proprietary groups which have already caused tensions with the east. In another positive development, the GardaWorld GardaWorld 1 202 3 © speaker of the HoR, Aquila Saleh, instructed the prime minister to use the 1/12 method of the budget law, freeing up some funding for the government. ▪ The High National Elections Commission (HNEC) has extended voter registration until August 17 after the process began to gain traction after a slow start. The Libyan diaspora will be able to start registering from August 18 via a link on the HNEC website. Over 2.7 million people out of around 4.4 million eligible voters have been registered so far. ▪ Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah conducted another high-level visit to Istanbul this week meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Reports indicate that President Erdoğan is now planning on visiting Tripoli in October. The last visit by Erdoğan took place in 2011 when the National Transition Council was in power and clashes were ongoing with Gadhafi loyalists. He was on a regional tour at the time which took him to Tunisia and Egypt, both countries where political Islam was taking hold. His visit in October will find a notably different set of dynamics in Libya, as well its neighbours, Tunisia, and Egypt. Military Developments ▪ The Presidential Council (PC) has ordered all military units across Libya to follow its orders as the “Chief Commander of the Libyan Army.” The statement appears to be a direct response to decisions by the LNA General Command over this last week and could result in tensions between the council and the LNA. ▪ The US special envoy to Libya, Richard Norland, stated this week that while Moscow and Ankara have indicated they are willing to withdraw Syrian mercenaries from Libya, the withdrawal of other forces “remains a challenge.” This came as the media office of Operation Volcano of Rage claimed there had been 112 Cham Wings flights transporting Syrian mercenaries to the LNA between October 2020 when the ceasefire was signed and August 05. ▪ An anonymous military
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Nationwide School Assessment Libya Ministry
    Ministry of Education º«∏©àdGh á«HÎdG IQGRh Ministry of Education Nationwide School Assessment Libya Nationwide School Assessment Report - 2012 Assessment Report School Nationwide Libya LIBYA Libya Nationwide School Assessment Report 2012 Libya Nationwide School Assessment Report 2012 º«∏©àdGh á«HÎdG IQGRh Ministry of Education Nationwide School Assessment Libya © UNICEF Libya/2012-161Y4640/Giovanni Diffidenti LIBYA: Doaa Al-Hairish, a 12 year-old student in Sabha (bottom left corner), and her fellow students during a class in their school in Sabha. Doaa is one of the more shy girls in her class, and here all the others are raising their hands to answer the teacher’s question while she sits quiet and observes. The publication of this volume is made possible through a generous contribution from: the Russian Federation, Kingdom of Sweden, the European Union, Commonwealth of Australia, and the Republic of Poland. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the donors. © Libya Ministry of Education Parts of this publication can be reproduced or quoted without permission provided proper attribution and due credit is given to the Libya Ministry of Education. Design and Print: Beyond Art 4 Printing Printed in Jordan Table of Contents Preface 5 Map of schools investigated by the Nationwide School Assessment 6 Acronyms 7 Definitions 7 1. Executive Summary 8 1.1. Context 9 1.2. Nationwide School Assessment 9 1.3. Key findings 9 1.3.1. Overall findings 9 1.3.2. Basic school information 10 1.3.3.
    [Show full text]
  • A Strategy for Success in Libya
    A Strategy for Success in Libya Emily Estelle NOVEMBER 2017 A Strategy for Success in Libya Emily Estelle NOVEMBER 2017 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE © 2017 by the American Enterprise Institute. All rights reserved. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author(s). Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................1 Why the US Must Act in Libya Now ............................................................................................................................1 Wrong Problem, Wrong Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 2 What to Do ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2 Reframing US Policy in Libya .................................................................................................. 5 America’s Opportunity in Libya ................................................................................................................................. 6 The US Approach in Libya ............................................................................................................................................ 6 The Current Situation
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Department of the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets
    This document is scheduled to be published in the Federal Register on 11/23/2011 and available online at http://federalregister.gov/a/2011-30293, and on FDsys.gov DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL REMOVAL FROM THE LIST OF SPECIALLY DESIGNATED NATIONALS AND BLOCKED PERSONS OF CERTAIN ENTITIES LISTED PURSUANT TO EXECUTIVE ORDER 13566 AGENCY: Office of Foreign Assets Control, Treasury. ACTION: Notice. ---------------------- SUMMARY: The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”) is removing from the list of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (“SDN List”) the names of 42 entities that are listed pursuant to Executive Order 13566 of February 25, 2011, “Blocking Property and Prohibiting Certain Transactions Related to Libya.” DATES: The removal from the SDN List of the 42 entities identified in this notice is effective on November 18, 2011. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Assistant Director for Sanctions Compliance & Evaluation, tel.: 202-622-2490, Assistant Director for Licensing, tel.: 202-622-2480, Assistant Director for Policy, tel.: 202-622-4855, Office of Foreign Assets Control, or Chief Counsel (Foreign Assets Control), tel.: 202-622-2410, Office of the General Counsel, Department of the Treasury (not toll free numbers). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Electronic and Facsimile Availability 1 This document and additional information concerning OFAC are available from OFAC’s Web site (www.treasury.gov/ofac) or via facsimile through a 24-hour fax-on-demand service, tel.: 202/622-0077. Background On February 25, 2011, the President issued Executive Order 13566, “Blocking Property and Prohibiting Certain Transactions Related to Libya” (“E.O. 13566”), pursuant to, inter alia, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C.
    [Show full text]
  • Reformatting the European Integration Process: Opportunities and Risks for the Ukraine-Eu Association
    REFORMATTING THE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS: OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS FOR THE UKRAINE-EU ASSOCIATION КYIV-2019 Reformatting the European Integration Process: Opportunities and Risks for the Ukraine-EU Association / V. Sidenko (project manager) et al. – Kyiv: Zapovit Publishing House, 2019. – 228p. Layout and design – Oleksandr Shaptala, Tetiana Ovsianyk This publication was prepared on the basis of the Razumkov Centre’s research project on “Reformatting the European Integration Process: Opportunities and Risks for the Ukraine-EU Association”, implemented in 2018 under the leadership of the Centre’s Senior Researcher on Economic Issues, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Economics Volodymyr Sidenko. This publication presents an analytical report that summarises the main directions of policies to reformat the European integration process and introduce changes into the mechanisms of the European Union. It carries out a coherent analysis of key determinants underlying the crisis in European integration that led to the current changes in its functioning, as well as identifies baseline potential scenarios of further EU development. Special attention is paid to the issues of completion of the EU’s Economic and Monetary Union, which are singled out in a separate, most voluminous section of the report. The final section of the report analyses potential influence of the European integration reformatting on Ukraine and the Ukraine-EU Association. The report is supplemented with materials that analyse the institutional development of the EU and its policies in the security sector. The publication also contains three extensive articles, which present an analysis of EU problems in the security and defence sector, migrant crisis issues and European migration policy, as well as the UK’s exit from the EU and the potential impact of this event on the EU in the future.
    [Show full text]
  • Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Or Simply the Islamic State, Has Carried out Deadly Terrorist Attacks
    BACKGROUND REPORT Patterns of Islamic State-Related Terrorism, 2002--2015 For more than a decade, the organization now known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), or simply the Islamic State, has carried out deadly terrorist attacks. Beginning as a small network led by Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the first terrorist attack attributed to this group was the assassination of American diplomat Laurence Foley in Amman, Jordan in October 2002. Since then, the group initially known as Tawhid and Jihad (Jama’at al-Tawhid w’al-Jihad (the Party of Monotheism and Jihad)) has undergone a complex evolution, including name changes, leadership changes, and shifts in allegiance to other Salafi-jihadist organizations, most notably al-Qaida. In addition, the reach of ISIL’s violence surpasses its own membership, to include attacks carried out by other groups and individuals who have pledged allegiance to ISIL regardless of whether or not formal ties exist. This complexity makes it difficult to comprehensively and systematically place into context the violence of one of the most active and deadly terrorist organizations in recent history. For the purpose of this report, we have classified the terrorist attacks in the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) into four ISIL-related perpetrator categories: ISIL Predecessor: attacks by organizations that were part of the ISIL lineage prior to adoption of the ISIL name in 2013 ISIL: attacks by operatives of the “core” of the organization, based in and primarily active in Iraq and Syria ISIL Affiliate: attacks by organizations that have declared allegiance to ISIL1 ISIL-Inspired: attacks by individuals who have indicated that they were motivated by allegiance to ISIL ISIL-Related: any of the above This report presents data that illustrate the dynamics of ISIL-related terrorism over time and place, from 2002 to 2015.
    [Show full text]
  • ISIS in Libya: a Major Regional and International Threat
    המרכז למורשת המודיעין (מל"מ) מרכז המידע למודיעין ולטרור January 2016 ISIS in Libya: a Major Regional and International Threat ISIS operatives enter the coastal city of Sirte in north-central Libya on February 18, 2015, in a show of strength accompanied by dozens of vehicles (Twitter.com, Nasher.me). Since then ISIS has established itself in Sirte and the surrounding areas, turning the entire region into its Libyan stronghold and a springboard for spreading into other regions. Overview 1. In 2015 ISIS established two strongholds beyond the borders of its power base in Iraq and Syria: the first in the Sinai Peninsula, where it wages determined fighting against the Egyptian security forces. The second is situated in the north- central Libyan city of Sirte and its surroundings, where it has established territorial control and from where it seeks to take over the entire country. It intends to turn Libya into a springboard for terrorism and the subversion of the rest of North Africa, the sub-Saharan countries, and southern Europe. The firm territorial base ISIS constructed in Libya is the only one outside IraQ and Syria, and is potentially a greater regional and international threat. 2. ISIS could establish itself in Libya because of the chaos prevalent after the execution of Muammar Qaddafi. As in Iraq and Syria, the governmental-security vacuum created by the collapse of the central government was filled by nationalist and Islamist organizations, local and regional tribal militias and jihadist organizations. The branch of ISIS in Libya exploited the lack of a functioning government and 209-15 2 the absence of international intervention to establish itself in the region around Sirte and from there to aspire to spread throughout Libya.
    [Show full text]
  • Libya Weekly Security Preview
    . Libya Weekly Security Preview February 21, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya Proprietary GardaWorld GardaWorld © 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary 1 202 © 1 Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 February 17 Celebrations ..................................................................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4 Oil & Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 5 Travel .................................................................................................................................................... 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 5 Key Dates .............................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Fragile Stability and Future Opportunities in Libya's Sirte
    Issue 2019/21 December 2019 The City in the Middle: Fragile Stability and Future Opportunities in Libya’s Sirte Omar Al-Hawari1 Since 4 April, Libya has been witnessing its third civil conflict in eight years. The conflict was sparked when the General Command of the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF),2 a diverse coalition headquartered in eastern Libya, launched a military operation to wrest control of the capital from actors loosely affiliated to the internationally- recognised Government of National Accord (GNA).3 While fighting has continued in and around Tripoli, with neither side able to gain a decisive victory, there have been concerns that the conflict over the capital could precipitate violence in other areas across the country. The coastal city of Sirte4 appeared particularly exposed, with its proximity to forces allied to the two main warring camps indicating it could become a new frontline. In addition to its strategic location in the centre of Libya’s northern coast, Sirte has a particular symbolism in Libya’s recent history. Having been the stronghold of the Qadhadhfa tribe and of the Jamahiriyya regime between 1969 and 2011, it then 1. Omar Al-Hawari is a communications engineer and researcher from the Sirte region. He has been cooperating with the Middle East Directions Programme since 2018. This paper was written as part of Middle East Directions’ Libya Initiative, which includes a project mentoring junior Libyan analysts. This paper was origi- nally written in Arabic. BRIEF 2. The LAAF is an alliance of armed military and civilian groups led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
    [Show full text]
  • Re-Conceptualizing Orders in the Mena Region the Analytical Framework of the Menara Project
    No. 1, November 2016 METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPT PAPERS RE-CONCEPTUALIZING ORDERS IN THE MENA REGION THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE MENARA PROJECT Edited by Eduard Soler i Lecha (coordinator), Silvia Colombo, Lorenzo Kamel and Jordi Quero This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement No 693244 Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: Mapping Geopolitical Shifts, Regional Order and Domestic Transformations METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPT PAPERS No. 1, November 2016 RE-CONCEPTUALIZING ORDERS IN THE MENA REGION THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE MENARA PROJECT Edited by Eduard Soler i Lecha (coordinator), Silvia Colombo, Lorenzo Kamel and Jordi Quero ABSTRACT The aim of this work is to set the conceptual architecture for the MENARA Project. It is articulated in five thematic sections. The first one traces back the major historical junctures in which key powers shaped the defining features of the present-day MENA region. Section 2 sets the geographical scope of the project, maps the distribution of power and defines regional order and its main features. Section 3 focuses on the domestic orders in a changing region by gauging and tracing the evolution of four trends, namely the erosion of state capacity; the securitization of regime policies; the militarization of contention; and the pluralization of collective identities. Section 4 links developments in the global order to their impact on the region in terms of power, ideas, norms and identities. The last section focuses on foresight studies and proposes a methodology to project trends and build scenarios. All sections, as well as the conclusion, formulate specific research questions that should help us understand the emerging geopolitical order in the MENA.
    [Show full text]
  • Weekly Libya .Xplored Preview 12 May, 2017
    Weekly Libya .Xplored Preview 12 May, 2017 Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Libya garda.com/ips Confidential and Proprietary © GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored Report 12 May 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACTIVITY MAP ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................... 4 Short term outlook ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Medium to long term outlook ............................................................................................................................ 4 SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Governance ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 Security ............................................................................................................................................................... 4 KEY DATES ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 THREAT MATRIX ...................................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Re-Conceptualizing Orders in the MENA Region the Analytical Framework of the MENARA Project
    No.1, November 2016 METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPT PAPERS RE-CONCEPTUALIZING ORDERS IN THE MENA REGION THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE MENARA PROJECT Edited by Eduard Soler i Lecha (coordinator), Silvia Colombo, Lorenzo Kamel and Jordi Quero This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement No 693244 Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: Mapping Geopolitical Shifts, Regional Order and Domestic Transformations METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPT PAPERS No. 1, November 2016 RE-CONCEPTUALIZING ORDERS IN THE MENA REGION THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE MENARA PROJECT Edited by Eduard Soler i Lecha (coordinator), Silvia Colombo, Lorenzo Kamel and Jordi Quero ABSTRACT The aim of this work is to set the conceptual architecture for the MENARA Project. It is articulated in five thematic sections. The first one traces back the major historical junctures in which key powers shaped the defining features of the present-day MENA region. Section 2 sets the geographical scope of the project, maps the distribution of power and defines regional order and its main features. Section 3 focuses on the domestic orders in a changing region by gauging and tracing the evolution of four trends, namely the erosion of state capacity; the securitization of regime policies; the militarization of contention; and the pluralization of collective identities. Section 4 links developments in the global order to their impact on the region in terms of power, ideas, norms and identities. The last section focuses on foresight studies and proposes a methodology to project trends and build scenarios. All sections, as well as the conclusion, formulate specific research questions that should help us understand the emerging geopolitical order in the MENA.
    [Show full text]
  • How Sirte Became a Hotbed of the Libyan Conflict Sirte: a New Frontline (June 2020) Cover
    How Sirte Became a Hotbed of Issue 2021/05 the Libyan Conflict February 2021 Omar Al-Hawari1 Abstract The birthplace and former stronghold of the late Muammar Qadhafi, the coastal city of Sirte, was stigmatised and marginalised following the fall of the regime in October 2011. However, since 2019 it has again become the epicentre of Libya’s domestic and international conflict. How can this sudden change in the strategic importance of the city be explained? Based on numerous interviews with key actors from Sirte and on both warring sides, this paper analyses how the strategic importance of Sirte has evolved since Haftar’s LAAF military offensive on Tripoli in April 2019 and how the city has now become central to the Libyan conflict and its resolution through international diplomatic efforts. Introduction The city of Sirte, located in the middle of the Libyan littoral and at the western edge of the ‘Oil Crescent,’ was the theatre of the final battle of the 2011 civil war, but after being ‘liberated’ by the revolutionary forces in October it faded into the margins of Libya’s transition. The city was military defeated, socially marginalised and politically excluded. However, since 2019 it has again become the epicentre of Libya’s domestic and international conflict. How can this sudden BRIEF change in the strategic importance of the city be explained? The birthplace and former stronghold of the late Muammar Qadhafi, Sirte, and its inhabitants were marginalised and stigmatised following the fall of the regime in October 2011. Left devastated after weeks of shelling and street fighting, the city was still regarded by the new authorities as a stronghold of former regime supporters and the symbol of the ‘defeated’ in the civil war.
    [Show full text]