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Libya Weekly Security Preview . Libya Weekly Security Preview February 21, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya Proprietary GardaWorld GardaWorld © 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary 1 202 © 1 Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 February 17 Celebrations ..................................................................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4 Oil & Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 5 Travel .................................................................................................................................................... 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 5 Key Dates .............................................................................................. 5 Assessment ........................................................................................... 6 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 6 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Regional Assessment ............................................................................ 7 Tripolitania Region ................................................................................................................................ 7 Cyrenaica Region ................................................................................................................................. 8 Fezzan Region ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Acronym List ........................................................................................ 10 GardaWorld .......................................................................................... 11 Information Services ........................................................................................................................... 11 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management.................................................... 11 This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya. Proprietary GardaWorld GardaWorld 1 202 © 2 Outlook Short Term Outlook ▪ The creation of a new government is likely to see some instability in the short term however there are positive indicators of small, but meaningful steps towards unity. The new interim executive authority will struggle to exert its influence, but all members have the ability to move away from current fault lines, resulting in a fresh approach to the current dominant politics of the country. It still faces a number of challenges as it navigates the formation of a new government and the handover of power which could see spoilers look to delay or disrupt the process. ▪ The Sirte/Jufra frontline remains quiet and there are emerging indicators of intent to begin de- escalating the situation. While this is positive, the frontlines will remain with both sides retaining defensive positions. The complexities in the southern region are resulting in a more fluid situation and it is more likely at present to see confrontations however not all of these will be driven by the national power struggle. ▪ The risk posed by COVID-19 continues to effect Libya as well as movement in and out through Tunisia and Turkey. The situation remains dynamic and will continue to evolve over the longer term with localized restrictions been implemented with little to no notice. Levels of infection inside Libya have begun to increase again and globally, there is an increased threat from new strains of the virus which could cause further travel disruption however at present, PCR testing is helping to keep travel corridors open. ▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remain common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting has seen an increase over the past few months in all regions although this is starting to show early signs of reducing. Medium to Long Term Outlook ▪ The current political turmoil which has been driving a period of repositioning inside and outside Libya since the end of the 2019/20 conflict has taken on a new dimension with the inauguration of a new administration in the US. While the political process is seeing progress under the auspices of the UN, gains remain fragile and progress can cause short term destabilization as the country and its stakeholders adjust. ▪ Islamic States state-building capability remains contained in Libya, and the group has remained mostly dormant from an operational perspective for the last couple of years. However, the ongoing fragmentation of the country and political instability will continue to create conditions in which the group can reconstitute some of its capability. Indicators from mid-2020 onwards suggest attempts are underway to reconstitute capability in Tripolitania with a possible aim of increasing tensions during 2021, a year which is expected to see significant political change. ▪ Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary February 17 Celebrations ▪ The 10th anniversary of the February 17 revolution passed off peacefully across the country with the exception of Sabha. The southern city saw two IDF incidents, one of which killed a young child and wounded 29 others, and an IED find. Initial reports suggested that the first IDF incident may have been celebratory fire, however, the follow up of another IDF attack after the death and injuries, Proprietary and the IED find suggests the incidents were targeted attacks against those celebrating the anniversary. GardaWorld GardaWorld 1 202 © 3 ▪ In Tripoli, thousands descended on Martyrs Square on the day with no obvious COVID mitigation measures in place. Other cities also saw gatherings as well as military parades with various weapons and vehicles on display, some of which were captured in the last conflict with the LNA. Political Developments ▪ The new interim authority has been busy this week meeting with key national and international stakeholders as they construct the new Government of National Unity (GNU). Prime Minister- designate Abdul Dbeibah has stated that he will not accept anyone in his government who cannot work in all regions of Libya. The statement comes as the new authority sets itself apart from recent administrations by conducting high-level meetings in the east of Libya with key individuals. Dbeibah has until February 26 to present his new government to the HoR which then has a further 21 days to pass a vote of confidence. ▪ Divisions within the HoR continue to hamper the ability of the parliament to be effective in its role. Parallel meetings took place in Sabratha in the north-west and Tobruk in the east this week with both sides trying to undermine the other and claim legitimacy. There is the potential that both sides may try to meet in Sirte this week with a view to holding a vote of confidence for the new government but its widely expected that the process will not be a smooth one. Speaker of the HoR, Aquila Saleh is also facing a renewed leadership challenge with his opponents looking to replace him with a southern MP. ▪ The LPDF is to take over from the constitutional committee after its failure to move ahead with agreements made at the last meeting in Hurghada, Egypt. The LPDF’s Legal Committee will meet on February 22 in Tunis in an attempt to “complete its deliberations regarding the fundamental constitutional proposals.” ▪ Egypt’s shifting policy towards Libya has continued this week with the arrival of a delegation to Tripoli to begin reopening their embassy. Their arrival was swiftly followed by a visit from Minister of the Interior, Fathi Bashagha who has been instrumental in improving relationships from the GNA side. Days later, President Abdul Fattah El-Sisi met with Dbeibah in Cairo. Egypt has found itself at a disadvantage following the selection of the new interim authority and is looking to reposition itself in a more neutral stance. ▪ The Secretary-General
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