Libya Weekly Security Preview

. Libya Weekly

Security Preview

February 21, 2021

Prepared by:

Risk Analysis Team, Libya

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Table of Contents

Outlook ...... 3 Short Term Outlook ...... 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ...... 3 Executive Summary ...... 3 February 17 Celebrations ...... 3 Political Developments ...... 4 Military Developments ...... 4 Oil & Gas ...... 5 Travel ...... 5 Threat Matrix ...... 5 Key Dates ...... 5 Assessment ...... 6 Political Developments ...... 6 Military Developments ...... 6 Coronavirus ...... 6 Regional Assessment ...... 7 Tripolitania Region ...... 7 Cyrenaica Region ...... 8 Fezzan Region ...... 9 Acronym List ...... 10 GardaWorld ...... 11 Information Services ...... 11 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management...... 11

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Outlook

Short Term Outlook

▪ The creation of a new government is likely to see some instability in the short term however there are positive indicators of small, but meaningful steps towards unity. The new interim executive authority will struggle to exert its influence, but all members have the ability to move away from current fault lines, resulting in a fresh approach to the current dominant politics of the country. It still faces a number of challenges as it navigates the formation of a new government and the handover of power which could see spoilers look to delay or disrupt the process. ▪ The Sirte/Jufra frontline remains quiet and there are emerging indicators of intent to begin de- escalating the situation. While this is positive, the frontlines will remain with both sides retaining defensive positions. The complexities in the southern region are resulting in a more fluid situation and it is more likely at present to see confrontations however not all of these will be driven by the national power struggle. ▪ The risk posed by COVID-19 continues to effect Libya as well as movement in and out through Tunisia and Turkey. The situation remains dynamic and will continue to evolve over the longer term with localized restrictions been implemented with little to no notice. Levels of infection inside Libya have begun to increase again and globally, there is an increased threat from new strains of the virus which could cause further travel disruption however at present, PCR testing is helping to keep travel corridors open. ▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remain common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting has seen an increase over the past few months in all regions although this is starting to show early signs of reducing.

Medium to Long Term Outlook

▪ The current political turmoil which has been driving a period of repositioning inside and outside Libya since the end of the 2019/20 conflict has taken on a new dimension with the inauguration of a new administration in the US. While the political process is seeing progress under the auspices of the UN, gains remain fragile and progress can cause short term destabilization as the country and its stakeholders adjust. ▪ Islamic States state-building capability remains contained in Libya, and the group has remained mostly dormant from an operational perspective for the last couple of years. However, the ongoing fragmentation of the country and political instability will continue to create conditions in which the group can reconstitute some of its capability. Indicators from mid-2020 onwards suggest attempts are underway to reconstitute capability in Tripolitania with a possible aim of increasing tensions during 2021, a year which is expected to see significant political change. ▪ Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary

February 17 Celebrations

▪ The 10th anniversary of the February 17 revolution passed off peacefully across the country with the exception of Sabha. The southern city saw two IDF incidents, one of which killed a young child and wounded 29 others, and an IED find. Initial reports suggested that the first IDF incident may have been celebratory fire, however, the follow up of another IDF attack after the death and injuries,

Proprietary and the IED find suggests the incidents were targeted attacks against those celebrating the

anniversary.

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▪ In Tripoli, thousands descended on Martyrs Square on the day with no obvious COVID mitigation measures in place. Other cities also saw gatherings as well as military parades with various weapons and vehicles on display, some of which were captured in the last conflict with the LNA.

Political Developments

▪ The new interim authority has been busy this week meeting with key national and international stakeholders as they construct the new Government of National Unity (GNU). Prime Minister- designate Abdul Dbeibah has stated that he will not accept anyone in his government who cannot work in all regions of Libya. The statement comes as the new authority sets itself apart from recent administrations by conducting high-level meetings in the east of Libya with key individuals. Dbeibah has until February 26 to present his new government to the HoR which then has a further 21 days to pass a vote of confidence. ▪ Divisions within the HoR continue to hamper the ability of the parliament to be effective in its role. Parallel meetings took place in Sabratha in the north-west and Tobruk in the east this week with both sides trying to undermine the other and claim legitimacy. There is the potential that both sides may try to meet in Sirte this week with a view to holding a vote of confidence for the new government but its widely expected that the process will not be a smooth one. Speaker of the HoR, Aquila Saleh is also facing a renewed leadership challenge with his opponents looking to replace him with a southern MP. ▪ The LPDF is to take over from the constitutional committee after its failure to move ahead with agreements made at the last meeting in Hurghada, Egypt. The LPDF’s Legal Committee will meet on February 22 in Tunis in an attempt to “complete its deliberations regarding the fundamental constitutional proposals.” ▪ Egypt’s shifting policy towards Libya has continued this week with the arrival of a delegation to Tripoli to begin reopening their embassy. Their arrival was swiftly followed by a visit from Minister of the Interior, Fathi Bashagha who has been instrumental in improving relationships from the GNA side. Days later, President Abdul Fattah El-Sisi met with Dbeibah in Cairo. Egypt has found itself at a disadvantage following the selection of the new interim authority and is looking to reposition itself in a more neutral stance. ▪ The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, has again called for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Libya. He also committed to visiting Libya soon during a phone call with Dbeibah and President-designate Mohamed Menfi. ▪ The nomination committee has begun receiving nomination papers for sovereign positions as per the agreements from the Bouznika meetings. The nomination papers are to be submitted online through a website that will be available until February 20.

Military Developments

▪ Senior figures from both the LNA and GNA called this week for the withdrawal of Turkish and Russian forces respectively. The calls come as the 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) reportedly travelled to Russia to meet with Russian officials regarding the “unofficial Russia presence” in Libya (Wagner Group). ▪ Reports indicate that around 500 Sudanese rebel group vehicles have now left Libya, via Chad. Around 240 of them belong to Minni Minawi's Sudanese Liberation Army (SLA-MM). This represents around two-thirds of his assessed assets deployed into Libya. The withdrawal is being driven mainly by developments in Darfur rather than Libya. ▪ A confidential UN report has reportedly accused Erik Prince of violating a UN arms embargo on Libya by sending weapons to the LNA. Prince also reportedly “deployed a force of foreign mercenaries armed with attack aircraft, gunboats and cyber warfare capabilities in 2019.” The operation reportedly cost $80 million and had plans to form a hit squad to track down and kill

selected Libyan commanders.

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Oil & Gas

▪ Al Waha Company confirmed on February 15 that a leak in one of its crude oil pipelines to Sidra Port had been repaired. On February 10, technical teams were forced to stop the pumping of oil and “completely isolate the 32-inch transmission line that connects Samah field, Qitar Station and Al-Dhahra field as well as another line connecting Dhahra and Sidra. ▪ Bad weather affected oil exports at the start of the week with a three-day suspension. Normal operations resumed on February 19 when Zueitina and Brega were expecting to receive tankers.

Travel

▪ Libyan Airlines resumed flights to Alexandria from Benghazi and Tripoli this week. The move comes after the company unified its east and west branches. Three flights will operate a week with the flight from Tripoli stopping in Benghazi before heading to Alexandria. Flights between Tripoli and Benghazi also resumed on February 18 marking a step towards normalization of relations between east and west. ▪ A Libyan Wings flight from Misrata to Tunis was forced to make an emergency landing on February 17 at Mitiga Airport in Tripoli due to low cabin pressure. ▪ The Algerian Government has authorized the reopening of the Debdab border crossing with Libya. This is expected to see the exchange of goods at the border. Algiers has postponed the reopening of the Tin al-Koum crossing point but will continue to hold consultative meetings to assess the situation in Libya. This includes considering allowing licensed economic dealers to enter Libya “if the security situation permits.” Threat Matrix

Region Political Terrorism Militancy Crime Kidnap

Tripolitania High-Extreme High High High High

Tripoli Extreme High High High High

Cyrenaica High Moderate Low Moderate Moderate-High

Benghazi High-Extreme Moderate-High Moderate High High

Fezzan High High-Extreme High High High

Sabha High High-Extreme High High-Extreme High

Threat Scale Minimal Low Moderate High Extreme

Key Dates

Date Occasion Comment

March 19, 2021 Commemoration of Victory over Gadhafi Public Holiday

March 19, 2021 Deadline for HoR to approve new list of ministers

April 24, 2021 Beginning of Ramadan +/- 1 day Proprietary

May 01, 2021 May Day Public Holiday

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May 13 - 15, 2021 Eid al-Fitr Public Holiday

July 19, 2021 Day of Arafah Public Holiday

July 20 – 22, 2021 Eid al-Adha Public Holiday

Assessment

Political Developments

This week has seen a flurry of political activity as the new interim executive authority begins its preparations to take over the reins of government. The new authority has given some early indicators that they intend on doing things differently to the last attempt at a unity government, the GNA. After meeting with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar at the end of last week, President-designate Mohamed Menfi travelled further east and met with Speaker of the HoR, Aqilah Saleh in Qubbah. After finishing his tour of the east, Menfi then travelled to Tripoli and met with his fellow Presidential Council (PC) members, Musa Koni and Abdullah al-Lafi. He also met with an HoR delegation from the southern region.

In the same vein, Prime Minister-designate Abdul Dbeibah travelled to Cairo on February 18 and met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Straight after that meeting and hot on the heels of Menfi, he travelled to Tobruk to meet with Saleh. He also intends to travel to the southern region where he states the situation is deteriorating more than in the east and west. This comes as he looks to build his new government, dubbed the Government of National Unity (GNU). His various meetings are likely aimed at building support and gaining input for his new government with key national and international stakeholders. He has until February 26 to present the new government to the HoR with reports indicating that the two factions of the HoR may be looking to hold a meeting in Sirte next week to hold a vote of confidence.

Military Developments

Focus remains on foreign fighters and their withdrawal Senior figures from both the LNA and GNA called this week for the withdrawal of Turkish and Russian forces respectively. The calls come as the 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) reportedly travelled to Russia to meet with Russian officials regarding the “unofficial Russia presence” in Libya (Wagner Group). The delegation was expected to have “an answer regarding the legality of the presence of Turkish forces in Libya and the possibility of their exit.”

Sudanese fighters withdrawing from Libya This week reports indicated that Sudanese rebel groups have begun to withdraw assets and manpower from Libya via Chad to Darfur. Around 500 Sudanese rebel group vehicles have now left Libya. Around 240 of them belong to Minni Minawi's Sudanese Liberation Army (SLA-MM). This represents around two-thirds of his assessed assets deployed in Libya. Another 200 are reported to be affiliated with Tahir Hajar’s Sudan Liberation Forces Alliance (SLFA) which account for his entire strength in Libya. The remaining 60 are believed to belong to Al-Hadi Idris Yahya's Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council (SLM-TC) and Gibril Ibrahim's Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).

Coronavirus

Cases have reduced for the second week in a row with 2443 cases reported compared to 3328 last

week (-885). It's unclear why cases would be reducing with no additional counter-measures being Proprietary implemented apart from a three-day partial curfew in Sabha. The country now has 12,326 active cases

and has recorded 2,114 associated deaths.

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The COVID-19 isolation centre in Sabha stopped accepting patients on February 20 as it has run out of oxygen following a significant increase in critical cases. The city had a three-day nightly curfew last week following a local spike in cases. This is the first indicator that part of the health service might be struggling due to COVID.

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Cases

Regional Assessment

Tripolitania Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Threat Warning - Feb 14, Az Zawiyah Province, Tellil Tourist Complex: A threat warning was issued for Sabratha, stating that IS was intending on targeting the Tellil Tourist Complex, where the HoR is due to meet on February 15, with a VBIED. ▪ Threat Warning - Feb 14, Tripoli Province, Tripoli: Threat reporting suggested two VBIEDs were in the capital. Security forces were reportedly acting on the information and began searching for a Volkswagen and Chevrolet from the early hours of February 14. A suspicious bag in a parked vehicle outside of the Central Bank was subsequently reported. ▪ CP/ Roadblock - Feb 15 23:00, Misrata Province, Dafiniyah: Reports indicate that fortifications were being removed at Dafiniyah Checkpoint after its closure on February 13 by former Third Force members over "unpaid wages." ▪ Murder/ Execution - Feb 17 22:30, Sirte Province, Dubai Street (Sirte): Abdul Jalil Jalloul, a member of the Criminal Investigations Department, was shot and killed allegedly by 166 Brigade (LNA). 166 Brigade was involved in another incident with fellow security forces on February 02. ▪ Arrest - Feb 18, Tripoli Province, Mitiga Airport: A photographer, Emad Mankousa, was arrested at Mitiga by order of the Public Prosecutor as they claimed his camera and laptop belonged to the HSC. He is currently being held at the Attorney General’s office. He was reportedly due to travel with Prime Minister-designate Abdul Dbeibah to Cairo.

▪ Kidnap - Feb 18 09:45, Tripoli Province, Bab Ben Ghashir: Libyan singer Ramadan Salem, known as Maniglesias, was either kidnapped or detained by an armed group after he participated in the February 17 celebrations.

Proprietary ▪ Arrest - Feb 18 12:00, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Zuwara: Police arrested 87 migrants on the

beach as they were about to set sail for Europe.

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▪ Armed Attack - Feb 19 20:30, Tripoli Province, Ghut Al-Shaal: An unidentified armed gang launched an attack against a police station in order to forcibly release a detainee. The gang, who arrived in a Musso pick-up, targeted the police station's checkpoint allowing the detainee, from Hay Andalous, to escape. Two policemen and one of the attackers were wounded. The gang is believed to be friends and family of the detained man. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Feb 20 14:00, Tripoli Province, Hadba Al-Mashro: A young man named Sufyan Mohamed al-Senussi was shot four times in the neck, chest and legs by Siraj al-Musaffah, a militia member belonging to Ghneiwa, at the Sharif roundabout. Unconfirmed reports suggest Musaffah was intoxicated. ▪ Prisoner Escape - Feb 20 22:30, Al-Murqub Province, Majer Central Prison: Four prisoners escaped from the Majer Central prison near Zliten resulting in a SAF exchange suggesting they had managed to arm themselves. Two of the prisoners were from Zliten, one was from Suq al- Khamis and one was from Msalatta. ▪ Mine Strike - Feb 20 23:30, Sirte Province, Wadi Jharif: A landmine detonated. The area is part of the Sirte-Jufra frontline which is known to have been mined. Some demining work is ongoing along the coastal road with a view to reopening it. ▪ SAF - Feb 20 23:50, Tripoli Province, Jarabah Street (Tripoli): SAF was reported inside the Bab Tajura HQ on Jarabah Street.

Cyrenaica Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Troop Movements - Feb 14 00:30, Benghazi Province, Benina Airport: Members of the Al-Awaqir tribe mobilised in the area of the Al-Qaws checkpoint near Benina Airport in response to the issuance of an arrest warrant for a prominent Awaqir militia leader who was due to land at the airport. As tensions mounted, 106 Brigade (LNA) deployed assets to the area. ▪ Assault - Feb 14 20:30, Derna Province, Derna: A tribal affiliated armed group attacked an engineer Abrik Mikael Al-Faidi and his son Mikael. Both had to be taken to Benghazi Hospital after the group, from Qubbah and Ain Mara, attacked them. They have since been released. The attack was motivated by a noise complaint from the al-Faidi family over a neighbour's parties. ▪ Security Operation - Feb 15 1061856:00, Benghazi Province, Benghazi: Security was increased following a security alert which saw a joint security room checkpoint established near the Baraka Mosque Junction with a focus on stolen vehicles and vehicles operating illegally. Advise and educational leaflets connected to COVID-19 were also handed out. ▪ Security Operation - Feb 16 17:20, Al-Wahat Province, Ajdabiya: Security forces allegedly closed Tahrir Square to stop February 17 celebrations. ▪ Arson - Feb 18 01:30, Al-Marj Province, Uwayliyah: A home was targeted in an arson attack. ▪ Armed Attack - Feb 18 09:50, Benghazi Province, Boatni: An armed group attacked Boatni Police Station and forcibly released a detainee. ▪ SAF - Feb 18 18:20, Benghazi Province, Al-Asheya Market: A child was hit in a suspected random shooting. ▪ Accident - Feb 19, Al-Butnan Province, Tobruk: A Toyota Tundra carrying 18 Egyptians illegally in Libya overturned near Tobruk. The driver and one of the migrants were killed in the accident. Those who were injured were taken to Tobruk Medical Centre where six were taken to the orthopaedic department, two to surgery and five to the "forensic research department." 401 Battalion (LNA) responded to the incident. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Feb 20 14:00, Al-Wahat Province, Ajdabiya: A murder of a Libyan national was reported in the area.

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Fezzan Region

Significant Incidents ▪ CP/ Roadblock - Feb 15 16:15, Sabha Province, Green Mosque: An armed group was conducting identity checks and detaining people at the Green Mosque junction. ▪ Mass Grave - Feb 16 13:30, Sabha Province, Ghadduwah: A mass grave of skeletal remains has been found during a patrol with investigations ongoing involving the Obari Security Room, 116 Battalion of 6 Brigade (LNA), Obari CID and the Criminal Laboratories Office (South Branch) which took DNA samples. The victims are currently believed to be possible victims of IS. The find came during a patrol by the LNA through Obari, the Maknosa Project, Wadi Ataba and the wadis near Ghadduwah. ▪ IDF - Feb 17 00:00, Sabha Province, Khalid Bin Walid Mosque: One or two mortar shells impacted near the Khalid Bin Walid Mosque in Mansheya, Sabha as people celebrated the 10th anniversary of the revolution. A 10-year-old child was killed in the incident and a further 29 people, including two children, were wounded. The rounds may have been celebratory fire however this remains unconfirmed with UNSMIL stating it appeared to be "targeted." UNSMIL condemned the incident and called for an investigation. Another incident was reported later in the day although there were no casualties along with an IED find. ▪ IED - Feb 17 10:55, Sabha Province, Africa Hotel: Reports indicate that an IED was found near the Africa Hotel by the Sabha Security Directorate. A military engineering team deployed to the scene. The device was constructed from a 107mm rocket and made safe. ▪ Arrest - Feb 17 11:25, Sabha Province, Jadid Cemetery Roundabout: Armed members of the Awlad Suleiman were conducting targeted arrests of members of the Qadhafa tribe near the Jadid Cemetery Roundabout. ▪ Other - Feb 17 11:30, Sabha Province, Ghadduwah: An old IS location was reportedly uncovered near a mass grave. ▪ Arrest - Feb 17 15:30, Sabha Province, Qurdah Agricultural Area: Armed members of the Awlad Suleiman were conducting targeted arrests of members of the Qadhafa tribe resulting in SAF. This followed similar actions around the Jadid Cemetery area earlier in the day. Local reports indicate that the situation between the two tribes is calm for now. ▪ IDF - Feb 17 20:30, Sabha Province, Taiori: Another two mortars fell, this time in the Taiori area. No reports of any casualties. This followed a similar incident in the early hours of February 17 near the Khalid Bin Walid Mosque where a 10-year-old child was killed. The incidents are likely linked to the 17 February celebrations. ▪ Accident - Feb 19, Murzuq Province, Umm Al-Aranib: At least 25 migrants were killed in a road traffic accident near Umm al-Aranib.

Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader's own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report

should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.

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Acronym List

AQ - Al-Qaeda BAM – Al Bunyan Al Marsous (Misratan-led) BDB – Benghazi Defense Brigade / Saraya Defend Benghazi (SDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) CBL – Central Bank of Libya CNI – Critical National Infrastructure DACOCT - Deterrence Apparatus for Combating Organized Crime and Terrorism DDR - Disarmament, demobilising and reintegration DF – Direct Fire DPF – Derna Protection Force (an amalgamation of all militias in Derna, including the MSCD) GECOL – General Electricity Company of Libya GMMR – Great Man-made River GNA – Government of National Accord (2016) GNC – General National Congress (2012) GNU – Government of National Unity (2021) GTUC - Greater Tripoli Union Council (Tripoli militias and others, established in June 2020) HNEC – High National Elections Commission HoR – House of Representatives (Tobruk-based) IDF – Indirect Fire (mortars/rockets) IDP - Internally Displaced Persons IED - Improvised Explosive Device IOC - International Oil Company IS - Islamic State LIFG – Libyan Islamic Fighting Group LNA – Libyan National Army LNG – Libyan National Guard LPA – Libyan Political Agreement (2015) LPDF - Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (2020) LROR - Libyan Revolutionary Operations Room MoD - Ministry of Defense MoF - Ministry of Finance MoFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoHE - Ministry of Higher Education MoI - Ministry of Interior MoJ - Ministry of Justice MoO - Ministry of Oil MoT - Ministry of Transportation MSCD – Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (AQ aligned) NFDK - No Further Details Known NGO - Non-Governmental Organisation (aid/charity) NOC – National Oil Company NSG – National Salvation Government (GNC) NSTR - Nothing Significant To Report PC – Presidency Council (GNA) PG – Presidential Guard PFG- Petroleum Facilities Guard RPG - Rocket Propelled Grenade RSCB - Revolutionary Shura Council of Benghazi RTA - Road Traffic Accident SAF - Small Arms Fire SDB – Saraya Defend Benghazi / Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group)

SDF – Rada Deterrence Force/ Special Deterrence Force/ Rada Technical - An improvised weapon-mounted pick-up truck TPF – Tripoli Protection Force (TRB, Nawasi 8 Force, Bab Tajoura Brigade and Ghneiwa umbrella group, established in December 2018)

Proprietary UXO - Unexploded Ordnance

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