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Changing Korea in Regional and Global Contexts A CHANGING KOREA REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CONTEXTS EDITED BY LEE-JAY CHO CHUNG-SI AHN • CHOONG NAM KIM EAST-WEST CENTER SEOUL NATIONAL UNIVERSITY PRESS A CHANGING KOREA IN REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CONTEXTS Edited by Lee-Jay Cho Chung-Si Ahn Choong Nam Kim Jt EAST-WEST CENTER & ¥ SEOUL NATIONAL UNIVERSITY PRESS Contributors Chung-Si Ahn Professor of Political Science, Seoul National University Joachim Ahrens Professor of Economics. University of Goettingen Kent E. Calder Professor. Director of Japan Studies and the Korea Initiative, Johns Hopkins University Victor D. Cha Professor of Government. Georgetown University Lee-Jay Cho Chairman, Northeast Asia Economic Forum, and Senior Adviser, East-West Center Russell J. Dalton Professor of Political Science, University of California, Irvine Sonya Finley Instructor of International Relations, the United States Military Academy Miles Kahler Professor of International Relations. University of California, San Diego Won-Taek Kang Professor of Political Science, Soongsil University, Seoul Choong Nam Km Project Coordinator, East-West Center In-Young Kim Professor ot Political Science, Hallym University, Korea Youngil Lim Visiting Scholar. Columbia University Emerson M. S. Niou Professor of Political Science, Duke University Tong Whan Park Professor of Political Science. Northwestern University T. J. Pempel Professor of International Studies. University of Washington David P. Rapkin Professor of Political Science, University of Nebraska John Ravenhill Professor of Politics. University of Edinburgh Doh C. Shin Professor of Political Science, University of Missouri A Changing Korea in Regional and Global Contexts Copyright © 2004 EAST-WEST CENTER and Seoul National University Press All rights reserved. No part of this volume may be reproduced in any forms or by any means, except for the brief quotations, without written permission from the Seoul National University Press. Printed by Seoul National University Press Seoul, Korea E-mai I: snubookfa snu.ac.kr Home-page: http://www.snupress.com First Printing: December 30, 2004 ISBN 89-521-0565-6 93300 Acknowledgements This volume is a product of the POSCO Visiting Fellowship Program at the East-West Center, in Honolulu, Hawaii. The program is funded through the Korea Foundation from an endowment provided by POSCO in Korea, the second largest steel manufacturing company in the world. The POSCO program is intended to promote studies and understanding of Korea in the context of Northeast Asia and the Pacific region, by enabling outstanding scholars and policymakers to engage in policy-relevant re• search on political, security, and economic issues in the region. The editors express their deepest appreciation to POSCO for the gen• erous financial contribution, and also wish to extend thanks to the Korea Foundation for its sustained support and cooperation. Also deserving ap• preciation is Seoul National University Press for the contribution made for the publication of this book. A special note of gratitude is extended to Kennon Breazeale and Karla Smith of the East-West Center for editorial support. Contents Acknowledgements Hi 1. Introduction and Overview Lee-Jay Cho. Chung-Si Ann. and Choong Nam Kim Part One The Security Environment Around the Korean Peninsula 2. Northeast Asia: The "Organization Gap" and Beyond 27 Kent E. Calder 3. Democratic America in Northeast Asia: US Strategy, Theater Missile Defense, and Allied Relationships 75 Sonya Finley 4. The Future of America's Alliances in Asia: The Importance of Enemies or Ideas? 127 Victor D. Cha 5. Strategic Uses of Economic Interdependence 165 Miles Kahler 6. The Political Dynamics of US-Korean Relations: An American Perspective 21 I Tong Whan Park V 7. U.S. Security Commitments to South Korea and Taiwan: Extended Deterrence versus Dual Deterrence 251 Emerson M.S. Niou Part Two Democracy in Transition 8. Crisis of Public Confidence in Democratizing Korea: A Comparative Perspective 273 Chung-Si Ahn and Won-Taek Kang 9. A Comparison of (Low) Trust in Korea and Italy 305 In-Young Kim 10. The Political Implications of Public Support for Democracy in East Asia 331 Russell J. Dalton and Doh Chull Shin Part Three The Korean Economy in Regional and Global Contexts 11. Remapping Asia: Competing Patterns of Regionalization and Regionalism 363 T. J. Pempel vi 12. The United States, Japan, and the Power to Block: The APEC and AMF Cases 401 David. P. Rapkin 13. The Political Economy of the New Asia-Pacific Bilateralism: Benign, Banal, or Simply Bad? 451 John Ravenhill 14. Safeguarding Economic Cooperation, Reform, and Development on the Korean Peninsula 477 Joachim Ahrens 15. The Technology-Institutions-Productivity Nexus in the DPRK: A Comparative Perspective with the ROK 539 Youngil Lim vii List of Figures 1. The Northeast Asian Are of Crisis 30 2. Rising Triangular Trade among China. Japan, and South Korea. 1995-2001 37 3. Map of the Korean Peninsula 57 4. Extended Deterrence Model 255 5. Deterrence with Ambiguity 262 6. Democratic Representation and Government Responsiveness in Select Asian Countries 278 7. Is Your Government Efficient and Just.' 280 8. Is Your Government Bureaucratic and Corrupt.' 280 9. Government Performance: Environmental Policies 282 10. Approval of Government's Handling of Crime 282 11. Are Human Rights Fully Respected? 283 12. Equality before the Law and Equal Pay tor Equal Work 285 13. Gender Equality 285 14. Actual Effects among Civic Involvement. Socioeconomic Development, and Institutional Performance in Italy, I900s-I980s 316 15. Freedom House Summary Scores for Select Countries. I985-2(XX) 338 16. Democratic Regime Indexes in Select Countries 347 17. Democratic Process Indexes in Select Countries 350 18. Scenarios of North Korean Development and Implications for Peninsula Integration 481 19. An Idealized Model of Economic Integration 497 20. Instituting an Integration MEGS' 505 21. Worker Productivity in North and South Korea. 1963-97 542 22. Capital Output Ratios in North and South Korea. 1965-89 546 23. Kim II Sung University Organization Chart, 1997 558 24. Organization Chart of the Taean Enterprise Management System 570 Viii List of Tables 1. The Northeast Asian Region in Comparative Perspective: Population, GDP. and Trade. 2(XK) 34 2. Perception of Free and Fair Elections in Select Asian Countries 278 3. Approval Rates of Human Rights and Freedom in Selected Asian Countries 283 4. Country Rankings in the Freedom House Data and Gallup Millennium Survey 287 5. Macroeconomic Performance hy Administration in Korea, 1973-2000 289 6. Changes in Political Efficacy and System Responsiveness in Korea, 1994-96 290 7. Share of Seats by Governing Parties in Korea. 1988-2000 295 8. CPI Rankings of Korea, 1995-2000 299 9. CPI Rankings of Other Asian Countries. 2(X)0 299 10. Trust Rates in the European Community. 1976-90 310 11. Differences in Mean Trust Rates: European Community versus Italy. 1976-90 310 12. Number of Respondents in World Values Survey in Select Countries. 1995 and 2000 343 13. Orientations toward Political Systems in Select Countries 346 14. Attitudes toward Democratic Performance in Select Countries 349 15. Percentage Share of PTA Partners in Total Exports of Select Countries. 2(XX) 453 16. Industrial Development Aid from Socialist Countries and Its Contribution to the Industrial Output Capacity of North Korea, 1970 544 17. Energy Consumption in Industry. Total and per Unit of GDP. in North Korea and South Korea. 1971-92 548 18. Annual Average Growth Rates of Capital. Labor, and Total Factor Productivity in North Korea. 1966-90 550 19. Annual Average Growth Rates of Capital. Labor, and Total Factor Productivity in South Korea. 1960-90 550 20. Number of Universities and Colleges. Students Enrolled, and Teachers: North Korea and South Korea. 1946-92 554 21. Curriculum and Hours Allotted for Courses at Kim 11 Sung University. 1960s and 1970s 562 22. Imports of Capital Goods per Worker in North Korea and South Korea. 1972-95 574 23. North Korea's Imports of Capital Goods from the USSR by Categories. 1961-70 575 24. Constraints Imposed on Enterprise Managers and Engineers with Respect to Learning: A DPRK-ROK Comparison 583 Introduction and Overview Lee-Jay Cho, Chung-Si Ahn, and Choong Nam Kim ast Asia has experienced a rapidly changing political and security environment: the end of the Cold War, the acceleration and in• E tensification of glpjjajjzation, the Asian financial crisis, the war on terror and a changing US security policy, the rapid rise of China as an economic and political power in the region, and North Korea's continu• ing efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction. Most countries in East Asia have overcome economic crisis, but they continue to struggle in adapting to the changing political, security, and economic environment. In addition, the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis had an important im• pact on politics and regional economic cooperation. The Asian financial crisis that hit many countries in the region brought that issue to the front and center. Most of the countries afflicted by the Asian economic crisis have recovered, but it is now clear that their economic conditions can be affected to some degree by the economic mismanagement of their neighbors. The financial crisis, for instance, compounded the problems that Japan has experienced in trying to pull out of a decade-long recession. Since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, politics in East Asian coun• tries have become unstable. From South Korea to Taiwan to Indonesia, leadership uncertainty
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