Communist and Post-Communist Studies
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Communist and Post-Communist Studies Communist and Post-Communist Studies is an international journal covering all communist and post-communist states and communist movements, including both their domestic policies and international relations. It is focused on the analysis of historical as well as current develop- ments in the communist and post-communist world, including ideology, economy and society. It also aims to provide comparative foci on a given subject (e.g. education in China) by inviting comments of a comparative character from scholars specializing in the same sub- ject matter but in different countries (e.g. education in Poland or Romania). In addition to the traditional disciplines of history, political science, economics and international relations, the editors encourage the submission of articles in less developed fields of social sciences and humanities, such as cultural anthropology, education, geography, religon and sociology. JOINT EDITORS Andrzej Korbonski Luba Fajfer University of California, Los Angeles US Agency for International Development Center for European and Russian Studies Bureau for European and Eurasian Affairs 405 Hilgard Avenue RRB 5.10-042, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Los Angeles, CA 90095-1446 Washington. DC 20523-2052 Lucy Kerner University of California, Los Angeles Center for European and Russian Studies 405 Hilgard Avenue Los Angeles, CA 90095–1446 EDITORS EMERITI Peter Berton University of Southern California, Los Angeles EDITORIAL BOARD Richard Anderson, Department of Political Science, Arnold Horelick, Carnegie Dowment for International UCLA Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington Richard Baum, Department of Political Science, Philip G Roeder, Department of Political Science, UCLA University of California, San Diego Ivan Berend, Department of History, UCLA Azade-Ayse Rorlich, Department of History, Ellen T Comisso, Department of Political Science, University of Southern California University of California, San Diego Susan L Shirk, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Gregory Grossman, Department of Economics, Affairs, US Department of State University of California, Berkeley Ivan Szelenyi, Department of Sociology, UCLA Dale R Herspring, Department of Political Science, James Tong, Department of Political Science, UCLA Kansas State University INTERNATIONAL ADVISORY BOARD Attil Agh, Department of Political Science, Budapest Boris Kapustin, Department of Political Science, The University of Economic Sciences Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences Rorlich Azade-Ayse, Department of History, University of Southern California Hisroshi Kimura, International Research Center for Japanese Studies, Kyoto Oleg T Bogomolov, Institute for International Economic and Political Studies, Russian Academy of Marie Lavigne, Department of Economics, Sciences Universite de Pau, France Archie Brown, St Antony’s College, Oxford Galia Golan, Department of Political Science, The Piotr Sztompka, Department of Sociology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jagiellonian University, Krakow Communist and Post-Communist Studies 38 (2005) 131e165 www.elsevier.com/locate/postcomstud Ukraine’s 1994 elections as an economic event Robert S. Kravchuk a,*, Victor Chudowsky b a School of Public & Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, 1315 East 10th St., Suite 433, Bloomington, IN 47405-1701, USA b Meridian International Center, 1630 Crescent Place, N.W., Washington, DC 20009, USA Abstract This article explores the political, economic, and social forces underlying the east/west cleavage in the 1994 Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections. We demonstrate that economic factorsdnotably, variations in regional economic strength and changes in employment in the period preceding the electionsdare stronger predictors of country-wide voting behavior and candidate support than ethnic and linguistic factors. The exceptions are the extreme eastern and western oblasts, where the analysis suggests the existence of significant differences in political culture. Ó 2005 The Regents of the University of California. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Ukraine; Elections; Former Soviet Union; Post-communism Introduction: prospects for democratic consolidation The literature on the political transformations in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union maintains that consolidation of democracy will be a lengthy process, * Corresponding author. Tel.: C1 812 855 5971. E-mail address: [email protected] (R.S. Kravchuk). 0967-067X/$ - see front matter Ó 2005 The Regents of the University of California. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.postcomstud.2005.03.001 132 R.S. Kravchuk, V. Chudowsky / Communist and Post-Communist Studies 38 (2005) 131e165 marked by a prolonged stage of political instability which has been termed ‘‘postcommunism’’ (Bunce, 1995; Daedalus, 1994; Fish, 1993, 1995; McFaul, 1993a,b; Scho¨pflin, 1994; Tong, 1995). Scho¨pflin, for instance, asserts that the communist experience has atomized post-socialist populations, plunging them into a ‘‘semi-permanent’’ state of confusion and disappointment. Much of the literature holds that the legacies of communism (that is, mass alienation, ethnic nationalism, lack of democratic traditions, distrust of political parties, a fledgling civil society) pose serious difficulties for consolidating democracy. In this view, a highly chaotic political atmosphere will render it difficult for the masses to identify their interests. This will lead to ‘‘state-centered,’’ or as we call them, ‘‘statist’’ political systems, in which there are ideological divisions, widespread distrust of government, and rampant corruption. The state fills the void that civil society cannot fill. In the nascent post-communist political culture, elections will turn on personalities, rather than on social or material interests. Inordinate faith will therefore be placed in strong leaders, essentially benevolent dictators (Kubicek, 1994; Rose and Haerpfer, 1994; White et al., 1994). In interviews the authors conducted in 1993e1995, some prominent Ukrainian politicians described the people as ‘‘waiting for Pinochet.’’ The vestiges of communism thus include both cultural and institutional pathologies that tend to produce a highly volatile brand of politics, which militates against development of democratic traditions. To the casual observer, Ukraine exhibits symptoms of suffering from the ‘‘postcommunist condition.’’ It is commonplace to focus on the floundering party system, fledgling civic organizations, occasional rhetoric of ethnic intolerance, and nascent nationalism. Commentators especially dwell on the political divergencies between Ukraine’s eastern and western regions. In the 1994 presidential and parliamentary elections, the east voted predominantly communist or socialist, while the west was a bastion of nationalist and democratic support. The common interpretation of the election result is that differences in language, ethnic heritage, and political culture constitute the major fault lines in Ukraine; the east having been more thoroughly ‘‘russified’’ than the west, and therefore less enthused with market reforms and links with Western Europe (Arel, 1994, 1995; Arel and Wilson, 1994; Bilous and Wilson, 1993). Much of the recent literature focuses on linguistic and ethno-regional factors as the key to understanding Ukraine’s future path of economic and political development. Andrew Wilson is, perhaps, the most vocal proponent of this view, writing that, ‘‘it needs to be restated that ethnolinguistic and geopolitical factors and not economic issues decided the 1994 presidential contest’’ (Wilson, 2000). Wilson bases his conclusions on a study of maps. But the study of Ukrainian political culture is in its infancy, and many potential explanatory factors have yet to be thoroughly explored. Consequently, this article explores the political, economic, and social forces underlying the east/west cleavage in Ukrainian politics through an examination of the 1994 presidential and parliamentary elections. Our main finding is that, contrary to the common view of Ukrainian politics, economic factorsdnotably, variations in regional economic strength and increases in state sector unemploymentdare stronger predictors of political activity and voting R.S. Kravchuk, V. Chudowsky / Communist and Post-Communist Studies 38 (2005) 131e165 133 behavior than ethnic or linguistic factors. The data support the conclusion that the strength of leftist forces in eastern Ukraine in 1994 was based on the relative economic decline there. Ethnicity appears to overlay Ukraine’s 1994 electoral outcome, but does not constitute the sole foundation for Ukraine’s 1994 political cleavage. Ethnicity was all but completely overshadowed by economic factors, except on a region-by-region basis, where ethnicity is a significant factor (albeit weaker than economic factors). These results will be seen to contradict the main contention of the ‘‘postcommunism’’ literature, that the voters are an amorphous mass, unable to identify their interests, and ultimately malleable by the demagoguery of the strong leaders that are certain to emerge. Events leading to the 1994 elections It has become commonplace to note the political divergencies between the eastern and western regions of Ukraine. Observers point out that the East votes predominantly communist or socialist, while the West is the traditional base of nationalism and democratic support. The common interpretation is that the main cleavage in Ukrainian politics