2020 Georgia Statewide Air Service Study: Technical Report

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2020 Georgia Statewide Air Service Study: Technical Report 2020 GEORGIA STATEWIDE AIR SERVICE STUDY: TECHNICAL REPORT Prepared for: Georgia Department of Transportation Aviation Programs Office December 2020 Prepared by: Delta Airport Consultants, Inc. As required by Paragraph 425.B(4) of FAA Order 5100.38C, Airport Improvement Program (AIP) Handbook: The preparation of this document may have been supported, in part, through the Airport Improvement Program financial assistance from the Federal Aviation Administration as provided under Title 49 U.S.C., Section 47104. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policy of the FAA. Acceptance of this report by the FAA does not in any way constitute a commitment on the part of the United States to participate in any development depicted therein nor does it indicate that the proposed development is environmentally acceptable or would have justification in accordance with appropriate public laws. Foreword This Georgia Statewide Air Service Study was prepared in early 2020 and does not reflect the impacts the Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) pandemic may have on the nation’s and Georgia’s aviation systems. COVID-19 is a respiratory virus that was initially identified in mainland China in late 2019, which quickly spread globally in the first quarter of 2020. The initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air service has been significant and has impacted every sector of the commercial airline industry. On March 27, 2020, President Trump signed the Coronavirus Aid, Recovery, and Economic Security Act (the CARES Act) into law. This legislation makes available a $2.2 trillion-dollar financial aid package to individuals, businesses, and other entities impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. Specific to the commercial airline industry, the Act provides $25 billion in loan guarantees to U.S. airline passenger carriers, with an additional $4 billion allocated to cargo carriers. On March 31, 2020, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) issued Order 2020-3-10, Continuation of Certain Air Service. This order proposes conditions for those air passenger carriers that receive financial assistance from the CARES Act, most notably that they maintain a minimum level of air service through at least September 30, 2020. For points (geographic areas, not necessarily airports) served at least five days weekly, based on airline schedules prior to March 1, 2020, airlines must continue offering at least one flight per day, five days per week. For points served fewer than five days weekly, carriers must maintain at least one scheduled weekly flight. Carriers have the right to request an exemption from this requirement in certain cases. The order is clear that it is not intended to impact those air carriers already operating under an Essential Air Service (EAS) contract, or those communities served by or eligible for EAS. Given the unprecedented nature of the pandemic, additional impacts to the commercial airline industry are anticipated due to reduced travel demand resulting from COVID-19. It is assumed that any planned service improvements identified in this report could be impacted, and the recommendations in the report may be implemented following recovery from the effects of the pandemic. i Table of Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Purpose of Study ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Airline Terminology................................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Airport Classifications ............................................................................................................................. 2 1.4 Georgia’s Airport System and Study Airports ......................................................................................... 3 2. Air Service Trends and Issues ...................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 U.S. Air Service Industry .......................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1 A New Business Model for U.S. Airlines ................................................................................... 4 2.2 General Air Service Trends...................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.1 Pilot Shortage ........................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 Fleet Evolution .......................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.3 Airport Infrastructure and Connectivity Constraints ................................................................ 8 2.2.4 The Rise of Hub Alternatives for Leisure Markets .................................................................... 8 2.2.5 “Open Skies” Agreements ........................................................................................................ 8 2.2.6 Volatility of Oil Prices ............................................................................................................... 9 2.2.7 The U.S. Economy, Global Trade Tensions, and Wall Street .................................................... 9 2.3 Literature Review Summary ................................................................................................................... 9 3. In-Depth Review of Georgia’s Commercial Airports .................................................................................. 10 3.1 Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport .................................................................................. 10 3.2 Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport ........................................................................................ 15 3.3 Augusta Regional Airport ...................................................................................................................... 17 3.3.1 Leakage Analysis – Augusta Regional Airport ......................................................................... 18 3.3.2 Benchmarking Analysis – Augusta Regional Airport ............................................................... 25 3.3.3 Sensitivity Analysis – Augusta Regional Airport ..................................................................... 28 3.3.4 Summary of Leakage and Benchmarking Findings for Augusta Regional Airport .................. 28 3.4 Brunswick Golden Isles Airport ............................................................................................................. 29 3.4.1 Leakage Analysis – Brunswick Golden Isles Airport ................................................................ 29 3.4.2 Benchmarking Analysis – Brunswick Golden Isles Airport ...................................................... 37 3.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis – Brunswick Golden Isles Airport ............................................................ 40 3.4.4 Summary of Leakage and Benchmarking Findings for Brunswick Golden Isles Airport .................................................................................................................................... 40 3.5 Columbus Airport .................................................................................................................................. 41 3.5.1 Leakage Analysis – Columbus Airport ..................................................................................... 41 3.5.2 Benchmarking Analysis – Columbus Airport........................................................................... 46 ii 3.5.3 Sensitivity Analysis – Columbus Airport ................................................................................. 48 3.5.4 Summary of Leakage and Benchmarking Findings for Columbus Airport .............................. 49 3.6 Southwest Georgia Regional Airport .................................................................................................... 50 3.6.1 Leakage Analysis – Southwest Georgia Regional Airport ....................................................... 50 3.6.2 Benchmarking Analysis – Southwest Georgia Regional Airport ............................................. 55 3.6.3 Sensitivity Analysis – Southwest Georgia Regional Airport .................................................... 57 3.6.4 Summary of Leakage and Benchmarking Findings for Southwest Georgia Regional Airport .................................................................................................................................... 58 3.7 Valdosta Regional Airport ..................................................................................................................... 58 3.7.1 Leakage Analysis – Valdosta Regional Airport ........................................................................ 59 3.7.2 Benchmarking Analysis – Valdosta Regional Airport .............................................................. 64 3.7.3 Sensitivity Analysis – Valdosta Regional Airport..................................................................... 66 3.7.4 Summary of Leakage and Benchmarking Findings for Valdosta Regional Airport ................. 67 3.8 Middle Georgia Regional Airport .........................................................................................................
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