www.africa-confidential.com 20 February 2004 Vol 45 No 4 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 3 SOCCER Fading Rainbow Some say the National Rainbow And now the world Coalition won’t survive much past Held back by political and economic crises, Africa’s football talent mid-year. The split between the shines through ‘Mount Kenya Mafia’ around President Kibaki and the populists President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali’s restrained applause after the national soccer team’s victory in the around Public Works Minister Raila African Cup of Nations on 14 February was, like many things in Tunisia, heavily controlled. Yet the Odinga looks irreparable. Kibaki’s Carthage Eagles had just defeated Morocco’s Atlas Lions 2-1. weakening position means that his In fact, it was just the latest piece of good news for Ben Ali – he’s standing again this year for yet another government is prepared to negotiate four-year term, with little visible protest, and he was due to fly to Washington on 16 February. There, with officials in the former KANU government, some of whom are he would meet President George W. Bush and successfully play the role of a key United States’ ally in accused of grand corruption. the ‘war on terror’. Ben Ali translates this locally into a generalised right to crush and control his Islamist opponents without Western censure. None of the Islamist cells or groups operating in the region managed to break through Tunisia’s security cordon to launch an embarrassing attack on an African Cup match. KENYA 4 Security and terrorism are critical issues for North African football when four states with armed Islamist opponents – Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia – are bidding to host the 2010 World Cup. Inquiries, no answers The African Cup delighted Ben Ali and was a personal success for the Chairman of the African Cup Allegations abound at the organising committee, Slim Chiboub. After a contretemps with Tunisia’s first family, Chiboub (who is commission of inquiry into the also Ben Ali’s son-in-law) is now back in favour. He is a keen soccer promoter: Chairman again of the . President Moi is accused of illegally leading Tunis club, Espérance Sportive, he is on the Executive Committee of the Fédération Internationale transferring US$76 mn. to de Football Association (FIFA) and close to its President, Sepp Blatter. Goldenberg for imaginary gold and diamond exports. Tunisian triumph Tunisian officials had their best pan-African credentials on show – and few begrudged the Tunisia squad SOUTH AFRICA 5 its victory. Solid if not spectacular, the team had just enough luck to go through against opponents such as Senegal and . It was compensation perhaps for Tunisia’s disastrous hosting of the African Cup Foregone conclusion in 1994, when it was eliminated in the first round. This time, a powerful attacking coalition headed by striker Ziad Jaziri in tandem with José Clayton and Fancileudo Silva dos Santos (who are both The result of the 14 April elections is a foregone conclusion – except Brazilian-born Tunisian nationals) organised the goals while (who plays for Ajax in the for the size of the ANC’s majority. Netherlands) marshalled the defence, ably backed up by the sure-handed goalkeeper, Ali Boumnijel. Health and the economy dominate Victory was sweet too for Tunisia’s French coach, Roger Lemerre, who took France’s national team people’s concerns and the ANC to victory at Euro 2000 but was swiftly dropped after its poor showing in the 2002 World Cup. would be vulnerable if it faced a There were plenty of goals, the second highest number in the tournament’s history, and surprises, credible opposition. including inspired play from newcomer teams and crass mistakes from Africa’s giants. There were world-class altercations in the Morocco-Algeria and Senegal-Tunisia matches but North Africa’s teams RWANDA 6 dominated the Cup, leading for the first time to an all North African final. Africa’s Cup of Nations would gain in status and sponsorship if its frequency were reduced from two Deadly anniversary years to four, like other major tournaments. Also awkward is its scheduling, for January-February – at Six months after his FPR swept the peak of the European soccer season. This prompts clashes between Africa’s national teams and the the board at last year’s elections, many soccer clubs in Europe, where Africa’s expatriate stars play. Rescheduling the African Cup for President Kagame is putting his Europe’s closed season (June-August) may win goodwill and bigger sponsors but Africa’s rainy season regime in order. Ten years after would make a tournament difficult in those months. the genocide, Kagame’s regime still has to try hundreds of African soccer is chronically under-funded. Pressure is mounting on the Confederation of African thousands of suspects, most of Football (CAF), which celebrated its 47th birthday in Tunisia in January, to restructure. The re-election them through the grassroots of Cameroon’s Issa Hayatou (long time friend of FIFA’s Blatter) for another four years doesn’t augur gacaca hearings. well. Apart from questions about accountability and competence, Hayatou seems stuck in an era when African governments almost overwhelmingly paid for and controlled soccer. Even when CAF goes to POINTERS 8 private business for sponsorship, it is sold short. After much obfuscation, CAF officials told the London monthly African Soccer that they had signed SA/Iraq, Algeria/ a sponsorship contract with French sports company Groupe Darmon for six years to cover the African Cup tournament in Mali (2002), Tunisia (2004) and Egypt (2006). The contract’s value is said to be USA, Ghana & UK/ US$2.5 million, a pittance compared to what some fairly dull European clubs are able to raise from Africa corporate sponsors. Asia (a continent whose soccer skills are easily outshone by Africa’s) is able to raise more than $10 mn. a year for its continental soccer tournament. 20 February 2004 Africa Confidential Vol 45 No 4

CAF’s shortcomings discourage even the best African teams. In the dates from 1988, when Zambia beat Italy 4-1 at the Seoul Olympics, last African Cup, the winning Cameroonian team was given a prize of followed in 1990 by Cameroon’s defeat of Argentina. Famously, $320,000 but it had spent over $700,000 preparing for and playing in Nigeria’s junior team beat Argentina and Brazil at the 1996 Olympics. the tournament. Lower down the scale, CAF hands out a ten dollar South Africa’s failure to reach the second round of the Cup marks daily allowance to players at the African Cup. This is a bad joke for a low when it should be building its strength, backed by new talent and players such as Nigeria’s Nwankwo Kanu and Cameroon’s Patrick Africa’s best funding and training facilities. The damage looks Mboma, who earn about $50,000 a week from their European clubs. internal: the team has been through eleven coaches in ten years. Three of them (, Carlos Quieroz and Ephraim ‘Shakes’ African giants in trouble Mashaba) were sacked on the eve of international competitions. Sub-Saharan Africa’s giants – Cameroon, Nigeria and Senegal – were Besieged coach Styles Phumo received more sympathy than blame outshone in Tunisia. Cameroon’s Indomitable Lions were just a from South Africans in Tunis. Now the search is on for yet another shadow of the team that beat Brazil and Colombia last year, after coach: former international star Jomo Sono, who owns the Jomo winning the African Cup in 2002 and one of their rising stars, centre Cosmos local team, is favourite to get the job. forward Samuel Etoo (who also plays for Spain’s Real Mallorca), African politicians too know the symbolic power of soccer; their failed to impress much. continent is the most football-obsessed region after Latin America. Some attributed the Lions’ poor showing to the aftermath of the Half a century ago, leaders such as Ghana’s Kwame Nkrumah and USA’s Confederations Cup tournament last summer, when Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser promoted soccer tournaments as a Marc-Vivien Foé collapsed in the semi-final against Colombia and means to continental unity. South Africans desperately want a tragically died. Three days later the Lions, in mourning for their winning soccer team; South Africa’s prowess in the (predominantly teammate, were forced to play in the final against France and lost only white) sports of rugby and cricket is seen as irrelevant by black South after a ‘golden goal’ from Arsenal’s . Cameroon’s Africans. Saadi el Gadaffi, son of the Libyan leader, Moammar el football management has been notoriously bad. Gadaffi, has used his soccer interests astutely to build bridges between So Cameroon failed in its attempt to become the first African team Tripoli and Italy. And Libya’s soccer diplomacy was working long to win three successive African Cups. Sub-Saharan teams dominate before the Gadaffi regime started sharing secrets with the West on the Cup’s roll of honour: since it began in 1957, Egypt has won four Islamist insurrectionists and nuclear weapons salesmen. times, as have Cameroon and Ghana. The decline of Ghanaian soccer, A more direct political clash in Tunisia was Rwanda’s victory, in caused by political and economic crises, is mirrored elsewhere, although its African Cup debut, over Congo-Kinshasa. It looked like a the Ghana club scene is livening up again with Asante Kotoko metaphor: Rwanda’s Amavubi (Wasps) team was disciplined and (formerly chaired by President John Kufuor) toppling Accra’s Hearts effective and stung the Congolese giant badly. Spurred on by strong of Oak as league champions. backing from the government and from their Serbian-born Inflated egos may also explain Senegal’s lacklustre performance coach, Ratomir Dujkovic, Amavubi also fought hard against the after their stellar international record, which includes a win against eventual winners, but lost 1-2 to Tunisia. World Cup winners France in the opening match in July 2002. One star Equally dramatic though less politically charged was the debut of of that encounter, Senegalese (and Liverpool) striker , ’s Warriors: they beat Algeria 2-1, nearly held Egypt’s achieved notoriety only in the frequency of his clashes with officials. Pharaohs to a draw and finally lost 3-5 to Cameroon’s Lions in one of After three of Nigeria’s key players were dismissed, the Super the Cup’s most dramatic matches. Zimbabwe’s big 21-year old Eagles nevertheless pushed Tunisia to a penalty shoot-out in the semi- goalkeeper, Energy Murambadoro, was widely praised, as was finals. And Nigeria’s outstanding Captain, Jay Jay Okocha, star of forward Peter Ndlovu, who led the team’s attack. (Struck by the Bolton Wanderers, was justifiably voted Player of the Tournament. Warriors’ performance, former Liverpool goalkeeper Bruce Grobelaar Better finance and organisation are pushing North African teams offered to help the team – he is touted as the Zimbabwe Football ahead of other Africans. Northern clubs are generally financed by a Association’s new technical director. Grobelaar fell out with ZIFA in consortium holding the operation to account, such as Tunisia’s 2000 after it refused to pay his salary in foreign currency because he Espérance Sportive. In Nigeria, Enyimba would die if Orji Kalu is a Zimbabwean citizen.) withdrew his cash. For now, the team luxuriates in its defeat of Egypt’s Ismaily club in the Champions’ League last November. The soccer trade Good club organisations are vital for the national teams. After Africa’s soccer traffic is a two way trade: talent scouts buy young South Africa, the strongest football leagues are in the North. In North African players. The local clubs or federations are happy to get their Africa’s national teams, most players are drawn from local clubs; nine share of the ‘export licence fees’, as are the young players’ families. of Nigeria’s side against Tunisia on 11 February play in foreign clubs. No one under 20 is allowed to be signed by a foreign club, but the age The richest African league, South Africa’s, earns about 160 million limit is circumvented by offers of schooling in Europe to promising rand ($24.24 mn.) a year from sponsorship from companies such as teenagers, who get soccer training and secondary education at the Anglo American, SA Breweries and Vodacom. Next is Egypt, then same time. However, there are tragic stories about teenagers who Tunisia and Morocco, with Nigeria some way behind. Most African don’t make the grade and disappear. countries haven’t adapted well to the loss of state funding for local Like the USA baseball league’s sponsorship of feeder clubs in clubs. Private companies are reluctant to finance clubs without Central and South America, European clubs, such as Manchester accounts. In Nigeria, the contribution of sponsors such as Pepsi-Cola United, Paris Saint-Germain, Ajax, and Bayern Munich, are developing and Adidas is a fraction of the potential. In Cameroon, the MTN local clubs and facilities across Africa. African players riding high in mobile telephone company is boosting its sponsorship from a base of Europe are sponsoring their own sports and education projects. around $150,000 a year. Midfielder (French international and Arsenal captain) Africa’s style of football – strong on attack and light on defence – is has started a project in his native Senegal, which he sponsors with as distinctive as the Latin style. Africa’s international breakthrough France team-mates , goalkeeper –

2 20 February 2004 Africa Confidential Vol 45 No 4 and ex-RC Lens defender Jimmy Adjovi-Bocco. Arsenal’s Nigerian head the Kikuyu-dominated Mt. Kenya Mafia: Chris Murungaru, striker Nwankwo Kanu, African Footballer of the Year in 1996 and Internal Security Minister, and Kiraitu Murungi, Minister of Justice 1999, started the Kanu Heart Foundation, based in his home town of and Constitutional Affairs. They are opposed by most of the Liberal , a charity for children with heart disease. Democratic Party, the main component of the Rainbow Coalition. The LDP’s leader is Odinga, undisputed boss of the Luo, whose sidekick is Going global Foreign Minister , a Kamba. After FIFA President Blatter announced that Africa would host the Politicians are fanning ethnic sensitivities to bolster their positions. 2010 World Cup, a brace of countries – Egypt, Libya-Tunisia (joint This week, delegates to the constitutional conference (where a third of bid), Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa – joined the race. By the end delegates are members of parliament) began their final negotiations of last year, it was shaping up to be a straight fight between Morocco with inflammatory language. One delegate, John Njiriani, warned last and South Africa. Nigeria didn’t turn up to the early meetings and month that the ethnic divide threatened national stability: ‘Unless it is announced it would back South Africa’s campaign; the Tunisia-Libya checked, the schism will reach catastrophic proportions, become bid has been ruled out of order by FIFA and Egypt has lost interest and irreparable and finally consume us’. says it’s concentrating on hosting the African Cup in 2008. The Kikuyu, the biggest ethnic group, cannot rule without an agreement Morocco benefits from its proximity to Europe, which should mean either with the second biggest, the Luo, or the third, the Luhya. The bigger crowds at the , and from its good security record (save Kalenjin peoples, led by ex-President , dominated for last year’s horrific bombing in Casablanca). The head of Morocco’s government from 1979 to 2002 by fixing deals between other minorities bid, lsaad Kattani, is confident it will succeed: this is Morocco’s such as the Kamba and Coastal groups, while working with key Luhya fourth attempt to host the World Cup. He extolls the country’s low and Luo politicians, and the occasional Kikuyu. crime rate. Alongside this, Morocco has become a major footballing The Kikuyu elite did badly under Moi and believe it’s pay-back time. nation, he argues, and points to impressive new structures, such as the That shapes their position on constitutional reform and devolution of Fès , with its majestic Arab arches, as well as plans for a power. The Mt. Kenya group doesn’t want to reduce the presidency’s Colosseum-like Stade de Marakech. Kattani claims that finance of powers – although 18 months ago, the same politicians argued that Moi 400 mn. Euros ($512 mn.) would be available to back the bid. (and his Kikuyu predecessor, ) had skewed powers to Yet South Africa is still favourite to host the World Cup, despite its the executive and destroyed Kenya’s Independence constitution. team’s lacklustre showing in Tunisia. Its facilities (excellent stadiums, Odinga wants the new constitution to create a prime minister’s office communications, roads and airports) and experience (it’s hosted the with executive power. He was promised that job when he defected to World Rugby Cup and World Cricket Cup) is unmatched in Africa. Narc, ensuring its victory at the December 2002 elections. One irony is The Chief Executive of South Africa’s bid, Danny Jordaan, and its that it was Odinga who, by declaring Kibaki leader before he’d agreed Chairman, Irvin Khoza, have won wide-ranging backing from this with his LDP colleagues, scuppered ’s own bid for politicians, such as Finance Minister Trevor Manuel and President presidential power. The veteran loose cannon had warned Raila’s Thabo Mbeki, as well as financial backing from corporate giants, friends that they would regret the coming Kikuyu domination ‘before including Anglo American and SA Breweries. There will be political too long’ and promptly abandoned ship. pressure on FIFA to take South Africa’s bid: it will be announcing its The conference is seen as backing Odinga’s position on devolution decision in Zürich on 15 May 2004, 100 years after the foundation of and the premiership; the draft as it stands would allow parliament only FIFA and 10 years after South Africa’s first non-racial elections. to reject or accept the new constitution in toto. The Mt. Kenya group wants to give parliament the power to amend contentious clauses. KENYA Western diplomats try to stay out of the debate but some think major constitutional changes unnecessary. They think it sufficient to tighten electoral laws, establish a truly independent electoral commission, ensure that the size of constituencies reflects the number of electors and Fading Rainbow – most importantly – make sure that the president is elected with more than half the popular vote. Moi won all his elections on a minority vote. The row over the constitution is splitting the Kenyans hope a new constitution will improve government government and blocking reform accountability. Civil society groups want stronger and better financed ‘The one certainty is that this won’t last’, insist Nairobi’s political local government, which would assume responsibilities now taken by veterans. Few believe the governing National Rainbow Coalition Nairobi. Devolution might promote pluralism at the grassroots but (Narc) can survive much past the middle of the year (AC Vol 44 No equally, it could set up a new field for cut-throat political rivalries. 25 & Vol 45 No 1). The split between the business-dominated ‘Mount Odinga remains publicly confident of winning the constitutional Kenya Mafia’ around President and the populists argument. His supporters, though, are developing alternative strategies around Roads and Public Works Minister Raila Odinga looks to displace Mt. Kenya if it continues to block reform. The key man here irreparable. Kibaki, a natural conciliator and deal-maker, is too ill to is Otieno Kajwang, Odinga’s trusted confidant. The two options are knock heads together. a no-confidence motion in parliament, triggering the fresh election that Both factions, each mustering about half of the Narc’s parliamentary well paid MPs fear, or an amendment to the existing constitution which strength, are looking to break the coalition and form a new alliance would allow parliament to impeach the president. Either option requires with the rump of the formerly ruling Kenya African National Union – a two-thirds majority, which Odinga probably hasn’t got. probably over the new constitution, due to be ready by mid-year. To Success depends on wooing the Luhya party, the Forum for break away and win, one faction must woo most of the KANU Democracy-Kenya (Ford-Kenya), whose leader, Musikari Kombo, members, plus others from minority parties. The courting has begun. took over when Vice-President Michael Kijana Wamalwa died last The vacuum left by Kibaki’s ill health has been filled by grandees year. Kombo may be the kingmaker. The combined power of Ford- from his Kikuyu group. The cabinet’s two most powerful members Kenya and the LDP could attract smaller groups in Narc, as well as

3 20 February 2004 Africa Confidential Vol 45 No 4 Inquiries, no answers This week, another former senior civil servant, Finance Ministry Permanent to oust him. He is said to have survived only through the personal Secretary Wilfred Koinange, accused ex-President Daniel arap Moi of intervention of the British High Commissioner, Edward Clay. ordering an illegal transfer of US$76 million of state funds to the company Some politicians have been queering the pitch by dumping false Goldenberg International for imaginary gold and diamond exports. This information about their colleagues, provoking speculation about future follows a similar allegation by Professor Philip Mbithi, former civil blackmail. Githongo has been firmly told to keep his eyes on the past and service chief and former head of Moi’s office. Both were speaking publicly leave the present alone, we hear. at the commission of inquiry into Goldenberg. Behind the scenes, Western diplomats take a relatively pragmatic This is embarrassing for Arap Moi, who has been promised immunity, stance, saying that Moi-era malefactors should be persuaded to return most and for his party, the Kenya African National Union. Hence KANU’s key of their ill-gotten gains, with some form of public admission or apology. demand, in return for cooperation with President Mwai Kibaki, is an Unforgiving opponents of the Moi regime want a more public reckoning unspoken amnesty for senior officials accused of plundering the Treasury and criticise Western governments for doing too little to probe European during Moi’s 24-year regime. It also wants an end to the long, costly banks which held the loot or to pressurise senior Kenyan officials secretly inquiries into what went wrong. Kibaki seems to be moving their way. employed by Western governments. A parliamentary investigation into the 1990 murder of Foreign Minister Human rights activists want an investigation into a Moi-era atrocity, the has been sunk. Moi and , named in a Wagalla massacre of up to 2,000 members of the Degodia clan at Wajir Scotland Yard inquiry as a leading suspect, had been summoned to appear airstrip in 1983. The motive remains unclear. Kibaki himself is among before the committee, led by Luo backbencher Gor Sunguh. The those accused of a cover-up. The main independent witness, Italian doctor summonses weren’t delivered, apparently on the orders of the office of Annalena Tonelli, was murdered by a gunman in Borama, Somaliland, Speaker Francis ole Kaparo, a close friend of Biwott’s. Other delays have last year. No one has been prosecuted for politically motivated ethnic prompted accusations of sabotage. clashes in the Rift Valley during the 1990s, which claimed several The tribunal investigating the gold and diamond exports compensation thousand lives. Other lingering mysteries surround: scam of the Goldenberg scandal (AC Vol 44 No 20), in which Kenya’s ● the illegal distribution of millions of hectares of farm land to clients of international financial credit was damaged after 60 billion Kenya shillings Moi’s government through the Agricultural Development Corporation; (over $3 bn.) was looted from the Treasury during the early 1990s, also ● the distribution of billions of shillings in unsecured loans through drags in the current government in the form of . Moi’s government-owned banks; Finance Minister at the time and later Vice-President is now Kibaki’s ● the plunder of the National Social Security Fund (to which Mutula Education Minister. Saitoti has repeatedly said he has nothing to fear but Kilonzo, a possible new KANU leader, has been linked); his political foes dismiss this as bravado. Leagues of smaller people might, ● tenders granted to the politically connected for construction projects; if threatened with prosecution, try to implicate the bigger fish, which is also ● the bankruptcy of several state companies and ruin of the sugar industry. why KANU wants the investigation stopped. There have been attempts to The Kibaki administration is facing its own corruption allegations, remove the Chairman of the committee, Samuel Bosire. especially in public procurement. Local Government Minister Karisa Kibaki’s internationally respected anti-corruption czar John Githongo Maitha refused to quit despite allegations about contracts awarded to a has succeeded in tracing $1 bn. worth of assets stashed abroad by relatives controversial insurance company. Other ministers came under fire for and cronies of the Moi government. The main suspects have now stopped crane tenders at Mombasa. Government credibility is draining away: past cooperating with Githongo and the Mount Kenya Mafia (see Feature) tried sins go unpunished while today’s politicians struggle for the spoils.

KANU (headed, for the moment, by Uhuru Kenyatta, now stymied in the 2002 elections) and the Mt. Kenya Mafia. Ford-Kenya energetically socialising again) and Ford-People (led by Nyachae). has disliked him since he broke away from the party in the mid-1990s, For now, Ford-Kenya is sticking with Kibaki. It can deliver a taking many Luo MPs with him. majority of the Luhya vote, as it commands the loyalty of the main Odinga can count on nearly all his Luo MPs. It’s less sure whether clan, the Bukusu. The one leading Luhya politician to have joined Musyoka can bank on the Kamba MPs; Kibaki’s supporters have been Odinga is Wycliffe , whose smaller Marigoli clan grooming one, Kivutha Kibwana. (The Kamba, a Bantu people, are is unlikely to make much difference at the polls. Yet many Bukusu historically closer to the Bantu Kikuyu than to the Nilotic Luo). Some resent the Mt. Kenya Mafia’s use of their voting power to fight Odinga in Odinga’s camp fear a replay of 1966, when his father Jaramogi and Kibaki is planning a trip to Western Kenya to keep them onside. Oginga Odinga, walked out of Jomo Kenyatta’s government and took The government has also opened negotiations with KANU and Ford- just three MPs into opposition. People, now both in the Coalition for National Unity (CNU). We hear KANU has to sort out its leadership. Moi still finances the party but, Kibaki is using Nicholas K. Biwott, formerly Moi’s éminence grise, without access to State House coffers, has lost his all-important to deal with political opponents and act as broker for negotiations. powers of patronage. Both he and his son Gideon continue to support Biwott has been a frequent visitor to State House, whose former Uhuru as KANU leader, mainly for lack of a better idea. KANU Comptroller, Matere Keriri, orchestrated this unlikely rapprochement. strategists worry that running a Kikuyu candidate against Kibaki at the Any initiative involving Biwott has to be taken seriously. next election could split the party again, with a new faction wanting a A new coalition is possible, with the cabinet seats of Odinga, candidate from another ethnic group. Daniel and Gideon are said to Musyoka and other LDP ministers going to the CNU. That would be considering backing Mutula Kilonzo (Kamba), a nominated MP, appeal to KANU’s barons but would risk splitting their party, many of as the new KANU leader. No unifying candidate has yet emerged from whose members want nothing to do with Kibaki’s government. An the Rift Valley, home to the Kalenjin and which still dominates the informal agreement, in which the CNU backs Kibaki on crucial bills party. Other contenders are veteran MP Henry Kosgey, his Kalenjin and frustrates attempts to bring down the government, would neuter colleague , or compromise candidate , Odinga, who is disliked with equal venom by KANU (which he from the tiny Borana group. 4 20 February 2004 Africa Confidential Vol 45 No 4

The leader of the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Mangosuthu SOUTH AFRICA Buthelezi, highlighted what he called the ‘five major crises’ – HIV/ AIDS, unemployment, crime, poverty and corruption – and spoke of ‘the growing suffering of our rural people’. These broadsides against the government of which he is a member produced uproar on the ANC Foregone conclusion benches. It got louder when he explained his party’s electoral alliance The ANC will win the Easter elections but it with the DA as necessitated by the recent constitutional change that needs to get its voters out allows party representatives to switch allegiance in mid-term, which has drained representation from the IFP and smaller parties such as Few bother to ask who will win the general elections on 14 April. One Bantu Holomisa’s United Democratic Front. ANC strategists dismiss cartoon last week portrayed President Thabo Mbeki astride an the DA as a white-dominated party of privilege. The DA can hardly enormous African National Congress horse, firing the starting pistol refute the charge, even if some of its policies have a wider appeal. for himself, with a huddle of smaller beasts lined up many yards behind. These elections, ten years after South Africa’s first free ones, Chief Mangosuthu’s damp squib will mark the end of democracy’s bedding-down process (AC Vol 45 The DA-IFP alliance poses a threat only in KwaZulu/Natal (KZN). Nos 2 & 3). Just in case of trouble, at least 1,000 international There, despite Buthelezi’s fireworks, talks between the ANC and observers will again be on hand to help judge their fairness. Inkatha continued and their two-party coalition in KZN, with or The government-appointed Independent Electoral Commission without the DA, may survive. The Sowetan newspaper has pointed out anticipates plenty of debate about the evenness of the playing field but ‘an uncomfortable fact about KZN – namely that the propensity for the deputy Chief Electoral Officer, Mosotho Moetya, is confident that political violence in the province remains uncomfortably high’. democracy will both work and be seen to work. Laments that South Acknowledging that potential for bloodshed, the DA, too, aims to Africa still lacks the institutions of a liberal democracy are common work alongside the IFP ahead of the elections. DA spokesman Nick in the country’s think-tanks and universities but the action now is on Clelland-Stokes told Africa Confidential that he was confident of a less thoughtful plane. new gains in Limpopo, Mpumalanga and other parts of KZN. The main question is whether the ANC can win the two-thirds Nationwide, the DA plans to spend heavily on radio advertising majority entitling it to change the constitution without support from (limited by national broadcasting regulations), with DA Chairman Joe other parties. It will also be interesting to watch the shifts in alliances Seremane figuring strongly in publicity distributed in eleven languages. and coalitions at provincial and national levels; to see which way the A new political landscape was sketched out by Boy Geldenhuys, ‘minority groups’ (whites, Coloureds, Indians) will vote, while the the parliamentary leader of the New National Party (NNP), who said: material gains from democracy go mainly to the more privileged in a ‘Given the fact that the ANC adopted a market-oriented economy, no still harshly divided society; and the impact of the official opposition party to the right of the ANC will ever be able to unseat the ANC as Democratic Alliance (DA), a party of one-time liberals who have the government of the day. Only a party to the left of the ANC has that moved sharply to the right. potential, with devastating consequences for the future of this country. The NNP therefore firmly believes that it is in the best interest of South Health and economics Africa to strengthen the centre of the political spectrum... to cooperate On the two critical issues, health and the economy, the ANC would be with the government instead of screaming and kicking on the sidelines vulnerable to a credible opposition. Health Minister Manto for ever.’ Tshabalala-Msimang has responded to criticism that the government The ANC’s nationwide campaign is in the hands of National was deliberately slowing down its promised distribution of anti- Chairman Mosiuoa (Patrick) ‘Terror’ Lekota, Secretary General retroviral drugs for HIV/AIDS patients by suggesting, surreally, that Kgalema Motlanthe, Deputy SG Sankie Mthembi-Mahanyele, they should try garlic and lemon juice. ANC campaigners rightly Treasurer General Mendi Msimang, Elections Manager Manne highlight poverty and unemployment, and many are disappointed with Dipico and National Spokesperson Smuts Ngonyama. They are well the record on both. Some ANC people push for faster land redistribution regarded, although the party’s national organisation has grown as a populist response to economic frustrations, although activists in chronically weaker over the past decade. As anti-apartheid militancy the Landless People’s Movement call Mbeki elitist and conservative. faded, tens of party branches closed. ANC militants have not moved Within minutes of the President’s announcement, on 10 February, to other political parties but have become state officials, gone into of the April election date, DA leader Tony Leon was on his feet in the business or joined single-issue campaigns such as the Treatment National Assembly in Cape Town with the cry ’bring it on’, relishing Action Campaign for HIV/AIDS activists. The ANC is threatened not the prospect of the media limelight. He promised a basic income grant by rival parties but by a massive increase in abstentions, which the of 110 rand (US$17) per month ‘so that millions of the poor can enter President and government could not afford. the cash economy’, the recruitment of 110,000 new police within three Foreign Minister Nkoszana Dlamini-Zuma says ‘the ANC is years, an urgent roll-out of AIDS drugs and a ‘road map to democracy broke’. Having paid for a R11 million ($1.67 mn.) billboard campaign, in Zimbabwe and a foreign policy that stands up for human rights’. He it is certainly short of money. Party officials are confident of reaching repeated his campaign slogan: ‘South Africans want change because out to the grassroots but admit to having no idea how the campaign is South Africa deserves better’. going to be financed other than through the annual funds distributed In return, the ANC’s feisty Deputy Minister of Home Affairs (and by the Electoral Commission. The ANC slogan, ‘A people’s contract Women’s League President), Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, fired to create work and fight poverty’ and the party theme of ‘togetherness’ accusations of racism at the DA: ‘If a native in Zimbabwe grabs land, will be driven home from ten campaign trucks that fanned out across then a native in South Africa will grab land. If Namibia changes its the country from 14 February for public meetings, music, speeches, constitution, then in SA the natives will do the same. Yes, all natives and distribution of pamphlets. in the convoluted mind of a racist are the same’. For the NNP’s Marthinus van Schalwyk, this election could be a

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final test of survival. Having worked with the ANC since 2001, the FOCA), who returned to Rwanda from Congo-Kinshasa in November. NNP is ‘well positioned to break through white pessimism and Kagame, seeking reconciliation, wants to make Rwakarabije a general alienation’, according to the leading Afrikaner commentator, Willem in his own army, as do the Chief of Staff, Gen. James Kabarebe, the de Klerk, who adds: ‘If the ANC is not excited about this partnership, Director of the National Security Council, Gen. Kayumba Nyamwasa, it is the kiss of death’. NNP Secretary General Daryl Swanepoel and Patrick Karageya, who runs the external intelligence service. argues that the party’s healthy base in the Western Cape puts it in the They say there is no record of Rwakarabije having taken part in the running to replace the DA as the official opposition nationwide. genocide campaign. A small but enthusiastic new multiracial party is the Independent Kagame keeps to the International Monetary Fund economic Democrats. Their leader, Patricia de Lille, has split from the Pan strictures but doesn’t brook interference from outsiders about how he African Congress and epitomises the independent-minded political runs his government. He swiftly punishes the independent press if it class that has emerged to challenge, and maybe stimulate, the ANC. refers to intrigues in the presidency. In November, the journal Umuseso claimed that Kayumba had been demobilised; it was seized and its journalists were interrogated. The same Umuseso, in January, RWANDA published an internal report of the Banque Nationale du Rwanda (BNR) which disclosed that Judge Gahima’s mother had obtained a loan of 72 mn. Rwandan francs (about $125,000) from an account in Deadly anniversary the Banque Continentale Africaine (Bacar), with no signature, no guarantee and no specified project; Gahima then resigned. The regime prepares to commemorate the In another January scandal, a lieutenant colonel and a lieutenant tenth anniversary of the genocide were arrested in connection with unlawful trade in cement products Six months after his Front Patriotique Rwandais swept the board at from the Cimenterie Cimerwa at Cyangugu. Shortly afterwards the last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, President Paul Director General of the National Post Office, Christian Marara, was Kagame is still putting his regime in order (AC Vol 44 No 20). He has fired, although he was a political ally of the ruling FPR. His replacement faced no effective political opposition since the presidential campaign, is Zepher Mutanguha, a former head of the State Protocol Office and when his main opponent, the Hutu former Prime Minister, Faustin Ambassador to Tanzania. Twagiramungu, found his Mouvement Démocratique Républicain The government’s hand grows stronger as the military threats from (MDR) banned as ‘divisionist’. That fatally weakened the opposition abroad decline. Uniformed soldiers stay mostly in their camps and Alliance Démocratique pour l’Equité et le Progrès-Espoir (ADEP- their frequent roadblocks have been replaced by policemen who fuss Mizero), whose leaders noted that their treatment aroused no significant over drivers’ papers, examine vehicles and liberally hand out speeding international protest. fines but don’t demand bribes. With the elections won, the government went on suppressing its opponents. In March 2003, before the polls, a former MDR member Town and country contrasts of parliament, Léonard Hitimana, disappeared; the authorities said The economy is unbalanced and divisions between town and country he had fled to Uganda but his family has no news of him. The are widening. Gross domestic product has grown at 7 per cent a year following month, much the same happened to Lieutenant Colonel since the low point in 1994 but the gains are concentrated in Kigali, (Retired) Augustin Cyiza, then Vice-President of the Supreme Court. where most returning Tutsi former refugees have chosen to set up, After the polls, several ADEP-Mizero leaders, including Célestin leaving the Hutu peasantry behind. For example, the construction Kambanda, have been under surveillance by Defence Military sector grew by 16 per cent in 2003 but agriculture was almost static Intelligence (DMI) and the police, who kept his house surrounded and at 0.7 per cent. followed him everywhere until December. Another senior ADEP- In Kigali, 10 per cent of the people are classed as living in extreme Mizero man, Faustin Minani, had his passport withdrawn in late poverty. In Gikongoro Province, almost 60 per cent of the inhabitants November. Ex-President Pasteur Bizimungu remains in detention, are ‘extremely poor’. After decades of over-cultivation, some provinces along with activists of his Parti Démocratique pour le Renouveau- – notably Kibungo and Bugesera – are threatened by desertification; Ubanyanja – and few in Rwanda, or outside, are critical of this. the United Nations World Food Programme plans to stave off famine by handing out supplies in schools. Back to college for dissidents Justice is a big problem. In early January, several senators complained Kagame has been tidying up his own team and sending his close about the state’s forgiving attitude towards the suspected perpetrators advisors off on study courses when they don’t deliver; though he often of genocide. Like many human-rights advocates, they reckoned that does this, conspiracy theories abound. In mid-January, Col. John- some murders in Gikongoro last year were connected with the imminent Bosco Kazura, trained at the Nigeria War College, was promoted to start of trials before the gacaca (grassroots) courts. head the Presidential Guard, whose former commander, Col. Alexis These trials, originally scheduled to begin in March, seem to have Kagame (no relation), was sent to Kenya for a year’s training. On 29 been put off until the tenth anniversary of the 1994 genocide has been January, Théogène Rudasingwa, head of the President’s office, was marked in April. By mid-February, only ten per cent of the grassroots sent for a short course in the United States. courts had finalised their lists of accusers and accused. Rudasingwa is a Tutsi hardliner who distrusts attempts at It had been hoped that the gacaca process would empty the congested reconciliation: so are his brother Gérald Gahima (who has just gaols – but the lists of those accused of being génocidaires grow longer resigned as Vice-President of the Supreme Court) and the former every day and have reached half a million since prisoners began security chief, Col. Jack Nziza. They wanted genocide charges confessing their crimes in preparation for gacaca hearings. That total brought against General Paul Rwakarabije (AC Vol 44 No 23), does not seem improbable, given that there were Hutu who volunteered former commander of the Hutu-led Forces Démocratiques pour la en masse to kill Tutsi, until Kagame’s Tutsi army won its victory in Libération du Rwanda-Forces Combattantes Abacunguzi (FDLR- July 1994.

6 20 February 2004 Africa Confidential Vol 45 No 4 Friends wanted The military threat from abroad is at last diminishing. Tension with says his brigade’s thousand-plus men are disciplined only by fear. He Uganda is subsiding in the wake of the most recent meeting between adds that they will eventually go home, since they are short of President Paul Kagame and President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni in ammunition and the Kinshasa government no longer supplies it. London on 29 January (although the prospect of a third term for A Rwandan lieutenant who recently quit the Sierra battalion of the Museveni is not welcome in Kigali). Most of the Rwandans who were FAC says its officers are happy to retain Rwandan soldiers, so long as exiled to Uganda are now home; the United Nations High Commissioner they do not admit to being foreign. Kinshasa claims that the problem for Refugees reckons that 25,000 of them were Hutu. should be solved by the end of 2004. That looks doubtful, at best. Relations with Congo-Kinshasa remain cool, especially while the Belgium’s Prime Minister, Guy Verhofstad, will be in Kigali for Congolese government tries to persuade the International Court of the genocide memorial ceremonies, along with the Minister of Foreign Justice in the Hague to take up its claim, lodged in 2002, for war Affairs, Louis Michel (regarded with derision in Kigali’s ruling damages. Rwanda has failed to get the case thrown out; it does not circles). The Minister of Defence, André Flahaut, visited in late accept the Court’s general jurisdiction but is bound by the Montreal January to reassure his hosts that the 190 Belgian instructors now in Convention on air transport, disputes under which must be heard by the Congo-K would teach the new unified army only ‘peaceful’ skills. Court. Congo’s lawyers cleverly base their claim on the alleged Moreover, he offered about ten scholarships for Rwandan officers at shooting down of a civil aircraft at Kindu in 1998. Belgium’s Royal Military College. Relations with Burundi are tricky. Soldiers of the former Forces The Brussels government distances itself from Belgian campaigners Armées Rwandaises (FAR) and some Rwandan militiamen are thought against Kagame, such as Professor Filip Reyntjens of the Catholic to be still fighting the Bujumbura government alongside Agathon University in Antwerp, who calls the Kigali regime the regional Rwasa’s Forces Nationales de Libération (FNL); Rwandan Hutu were ‘spoiler’ and wants it penalised. fighting with the other main Burundian Hutu army, the Forces pour la After Kagame’s victory, Britain, the Netherlands, Sweden and the Défense de la Démocratie (FDD), until it went on cease-fire in United States increased their aid to the new regime, then lost their November. Moreover, Kigali and Bujumbura disapprove of each enthusiasm when Rwanda intervened in Congo. Relations are a bit other’s national reconciliation policies. In their experiment with better again now that Rwanda’s forces have pulled out; spokespeople power-sharing, Burundi’s politicians class themselves either as Tutsi in Kigali blame the lingering suspicions on the Rwanda specialist at or as Hutu and government jobs are subject to ethnic quotas. Rwanda’s Human Rights Watch, Alison DesForges, who speaks Kinyarwanda (Tutsi) leaders say they want to bypass ethnic categories and achieve and wrote a definitive account of the 1994 genocide. reconciliation without them. The European Commission’s delegate, Jeremy Lester of Britain, is Rwanda’s exiled Hutu fighters are starting to come home. By the end seen as sympathetic to Kigali and is regularly criticised by France, of January, 4,000 had arrived, mostly from Congo-K, with some from which still resents Kagame’s triumph over his Francophone Burundi, Congo-Brazzaville and Mozambique. Half of the 700 ex- predecessors. The French Embassy in Kigali refused to allow its fighters in Mutobo camp, just south of Ruhengeri, were from Joseph cultural centre to stage a play (by a Frenchman, Jacques Décuvellerie) Padiri Bulenda’s Mai-Mai Forces Armées de Libération, more than which won high praise at the Avignon Festival; a lack of space was the 300 from the Forces Démocratiques pour la Libération du Rwanda official reason given but the play is tough on France’s role during the (FDLR) plus about 50 from President Joseph Kabila’s Forces Armées genocide. Congolaises (FAC). However, the Demobilisation Commission reckons Kigali is cultivating African friends. In January, it hosted a ministerial that about 50,000 men are still in Congo-K, partly because the FDLR’s meeting of Nile Basin countries and in February, it welcomed a summit leaders threaten to kill deserters. Second Lieutenant Ernest Torwa, meeting for members of the African Preview Mechanism under the who deserted from an FDLR unit under Major Thierry in South Kivu, New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NePAD).

Western diplomats want the regime to grant amnesty to génocidaires A few months ago, some Rwandan historians began discussing a who confess, which would reduce the prison population and encourage suitable text with the Education Ministry – and with the ideologues of the use of community service as restitution. However, many survivors the FPR. think too many guilty people have been freed since January 2003, when Kagame ordered the provisional release of about 24,000 suspects. Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com That feeling is particularly strong since the murder in Gikongoro late Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. last year of witnesses to the genocide Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Tutsi survivors also complain that their compensation fund, the Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk Fonds d’Aide aux Rescapés du Génocide (FARG), treats them less and Richard Synge. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa generously than Hutu fighters returning from Congo-Kinshasa, who Confidential in advance: get 50,000 FRw ($89) on arrival and double that amount once their Institutions: Africa £359 – UK/Europe £422 – USA $1062 – ROW £550 reintegration project has been approved by the government’s Provincial Corporates: Africa £464 – UK/Europe £517 – USA $1197 – ROW £645 Programme Officers. Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £96 or USA $138 The authorities stress the official line about reconciliation but are African Studies Assoc. members: UK/Europe £70 – Americas $102 – ROW £70 All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept finding that many Hutu passively resist the trial process, complaining American Express, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. that the tribunals should also deal with massacres by the Armée Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 1354, 9600 Patriotique Rwandaise, both in Rwanda and in Congo-K. So deep is Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2XG England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 778315 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 471775 the controversy surrounding the terrible events of 1994 that, ten years Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. on, no history of them has yet been established for secondary schools. ISSN 0044-6483

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love to capture – though not enough to cooperate They faced confusing, sometimes contradictory, Pointers to do so. Though Le/El Para was not, it seems, in allegations and repeated old and sometimes the convoy, the operation was so efficient that unconvincing refutations. Key witnesses survive observers immediately assumed United States’ abroad and might be hard to find. Official notes, SOUTH AFRICA/IRAQ troops were responsible. Over 1,000 US forces orders and recordings have been lost, along with may now be in the Sahel. the Ghana Broadcasting Corporation’s film library, Bombed out Military and other sources note, though, that destroyed by fire in 1984. The Commission is not they wouldn’t take combat roles in such operations a court, constrained by legal rules of evidence. The death of ex-special forces officer Frans but at most, command and control, from a distance. But Tsikata agreed to a reopening of the 1982-83 Strydom in a bomb explosion in Baghdad in early This was not the case here, Africa Confidential has judicial inquiry, on condition that it was ‘fair and February is focusing attention on South African been told. The focus of the US presence (British non-political’. With polls ahead, that looks difficult. mercenaries doing security work in Iraq. Strydom and French forces are also around, we hear) is was in Koevoet (crowbar), an SA military unit Islamist activity (AC Vol 45 No 1). Their task is BRITAIN/AFRICA sent to destroy the South West Africa People’s twofold: training and equipping local armies; Organisation units in what became Namibia. gathering information. A chain of fixed satellites Badly wounded with Strydom was Deon helps track movements but is insufficient in a vast Sins of omission Gouws, an officer in the Vlakplaas death squad. terrain with cover for those who know their way Irish Africa campaigner and rock musician Sir Gouws won an amnesty from the Truth and around. Seasoned smugglers confuse the issue. Bob Geldof has persuaded British Prime Minister Reconciliation Commission after confessing to So do reports of a US base near Tamanrasset: Tony Blair to set up a commission on Africa to murdering several activists. old-style bases are out of fashion in an electronic coincide with Britain’s chairing of the Group of Both men, and four South Africans with them, era. US troops are certainly inside Algerian army Eight industrial countries and its presidency of the were recruited to Iraq through companies linked bases, for both training and intelligence purposes. European Union next year. Significantly, to Erinys International. Erinys’ And near the airport at Tamanrasset, capital of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is to be operation is run by Sean Cleary, a diplomat and Algeria’s deep south, a strange building is under invited to join but not South African President intelligence officer during the apartheid era. The construction. Ostensibly for the US government’s Thabo Mbeki, whose rift with Blair at the recruitment of mercenary fighters is illegal under National Aeronautical and Space Administration Commonwealth Summit in Nigeria over SA law but Erinys makes no secret of its security (NASA) is a site operated by Kellogg Brown and Zimbabwe policy looks terminal. Others tipped work in Iraq. Veterans of African security Root, a subsidiary of Halliburton. It would appear for membership are the Ghanaian Executive operations such as Jonathan Garratt (ex-Armor to be a monitoring centre of some importance. Group) and Alastair Morrison (ex-Defence Director of the United Nations Economic Systems Ltd) sit on Erinys’ board. Their work in GHANA Commission for Africa, K.Y. Amoako, who gave Iraq is expanding rapidly; a director of Erinys a seminar on African economies at Downing Street, Iraq, Faisal Daghistani, is a close confidant of and Nigeria’s President Olusegun Obasanjo. Iraqi National Congress leader Ahmed Chalabi. Judging Jerry Papers will be presented to the Commission by However Chalabi insists his ties to the United In 1982, a few months after Flight Lieutenant renowned economists and political scientists with States government had no influence in Erinys’ Jerry John Rawlings successfully staged a coup, the aim of compiling as hard-hitting a report as winning a US$80 million security contract in Iraq. three High Court judges and an army officer were that produced by German Chancellor Willy Over 1,000 SA ex-soldiers may be working on brutally murdered and their bodies incompetently Brandt’s Commission on Third World Iraqi security. burned. Rawlings went on to rule Ghana until the Development in 1980. Then, the Brandt year 2000. For all that time, his critics have Commission broke new ground; now, there are ALGERIA/USA alleged that he at least covered up, and probably reams of African development plans. Britain is consented to, the murders and that they were already committed to the G8’s Action Plan, drawn organised by his long-time confidant and enforcer, up at its summit in Kananaskis, Canada, in July Desert shadows Captain Kojo Tsikata. Few believe that all was 2002. That followed Africa’s own tortuously Reports of an ambush at the end of January revealed by an inquiry in 1982-83, chaired by negotiated plan, shaped by South Africa, Nigeria, somewhere between ‘north of Tamanrasset’ in Justice Azu Crabbe. The story will not die and Algeria and Egypt: the New Partnership for southern Algeria and northern Mali point to the with Rawlings a key figure in elections due in Africa’s Development (NePAD). complex and lethal war games under way across November (AC Vol 45 No 3), President John There are also the United Nations’ Millennium Africa’s belt of Muslim states. The shadowy Kufuor has no interest in burying it. Development Goals, setting out clear objectives – geography derives from the fact that the attack, by Its latest revival was at the National such as minimum health and education standards Algerian forces, was first reported by Algerian Reconciliation Commission, responding to claims – to be met by 2015. But rich countries’ efforts fall military intelligence (and confirmed to Africa by relatives of two of the victims, Jemima Acquah, far short of these targets. Another puzzle is how Confidential by Western sources). widow of the late Major Sam Acquah, and the Commission would relate to British Chancellor The ambush killed nearly a dozen men from the Kwabena Agyei Bramdang Agyepong, son of Gordon Brown’s push, at a London conference Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat, the late Justice Kwadwo Agyei Agyepong. The on 16 February, for a sharp increase in development who were driving four Toyotas loaded with arms NRC Chairman, Justice Kweku Etrew Amuah- aid from rich countries. One of Brown’s big ideas, and satellite telephones when they were ambushed Sekyi, called Rawlings and Tsikata to give backed by the International Monetary Fund and by Algerian forces. They belonged to the GSPC evidence and, instead of employing lawyers to France, is an International Financing Facility to faction led by Abdel Razak ‘le Para’, who has speak for them, they came on 12 February. double the level of international aid by floating free rein on all sides of the Algeria-Mali-Niger Tsikata’s testimony lasted two and a half hours, development bonds (backed by rich-country border and whom several governments would Rawlings’s just 45 minutes. governments) on the international capital markets.

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