Brexit in Perspective Episode 1: Keep Calm and Negotiate an Inside View from Brussels

Brexit in perspective Episode 1: Keep calm and negotiate An inside view from Brussels

January 2017 Europe is edging closer to an event once unthinkable in post-war politics – the possible retreat of arguably the continent’s greatest triumph. With the unilateral triggering of Article 50, expected in March 2017, the United Kingdom would However unprecedented, 2016: The year of revolt. present itself as the the mechanics for 2017: The year of first Member State to withdrawal are now uncertainty? declare its intention underway. The road will Postulating outcomes over the next to withdraw not be easy for either party. few months highlights that uncertainty It remains to be seen remains the elephant in the room for membership of the many factors in a Brexit negotiation. whether the motto ‘united Europe is hosting numerous elections European Union. in diversity’ will hold true in its Member States over the course of over the course of any 2017. These range from local elections to elections for President in all parts of future negotiations but, as Europe; North to South, East to West. things stand, the European Of key importance will be votes in institutions are holding France and Germany, the traditional firm on a resolute position ‘driver states’ of the European Union. towards an exit partner Just like in the British referendum vote on EU membership, and the recent that is setting no clear Presidential elections in the United negotiations objective. States, there is a question mark over There are to be no likely outcomes in almost all of these popular votes. negotiations before the Whereas a solid lead in the polls formal notification of traditionally meant guaranteed wins, Article 50 of the Treaty on today’s political climate seems like European Union (TEU), and shakier ground. once negotiations start the What we can be sure of however is European institutions will that, whether in March or later on, the UK Government will trigger Article 50. work to preserve the There is then a clear process for this interests of the remaining withdrawal of EU membership, with Members. Decades of equal the expectation of a very strict – and tight – timetable, unless the parties partnership amongst agree to extend it as set out in European nations are set to paragraph 3 of Article 50. be unravelled as discussions pit the United Kingdom against the remaining Member States.

The official “Brexit” procedure

UK Supreme Court Case: Triggering Article 50 Who can trigger Article 50?

Prime Minister Westminster Donald Tusk European Council The UK formally notifies the European Council of its intention to withdraw from EU membership (“triggers Article 50”)

Phase 1: March 2017 ? European Council to adopt broad, principle based guidelines for Article 50 framework (which can be revised if needed) Article 50 Task Force Representative of the Council Presidency will also sit in the At the recommendation of the negotiating team European Commission, the Council will open negotiations and nominate the Union negotiator

Michel Barnier Phase 2: March – June 2017 Phase 3: June – August 2017 European Council formally nominate Barnier as chief negotiator and agree procedural working relationship between institutions Phase 4: Guy Verhofstadt will act as “observer” for the August 2017 – October 2018 European Parliament Negotiations begin with the UK (topics Interinstitutional cooperation include the EU budget, financial settlement, acquired rights of citizens A dedicated Council The Article 50 Task Force (European Working Group will Commission) will keep the EU27 and the and business and borders) provide guidance for the European Parliament informed. negotiator and EU’s Representatives of Donald Tusk will be negotiating team on a European Council present in a supporting role. regular basis Phase 5: October 2018 – March 2019

European Council Phase 6: March 2019 - ? European Parliament, European Council and the UK to agree to any Article 50 OR Agreement or decide to extend the negotiations. The agreement process Transitional arrangement Hard Brexit? depends on whether it is an EU or “mixed” and new relationship competency agreement. © Brunswick 2016 | 3 Brunswick Group Brexit in perspective

Intelligence update

Immediately following the 1/ European Commission Netherlands and Ireland, Nordics and Baltics, Southern periphery: but these announcement of the UK The wider European Commission will groups will likely shift and change referendum result, the feed input into the Article 50 Task depending on the issue being Force through heads of European discussed. European Council took Commission departments (so-called charge. The day after the Director-Generals) and specific “single referendum, a Council Task contact points”, one additional official 2/ Member States for each Directorate-General Force was created to plan (department). (European Council; Council the upcoming negotiations. of the European Union) On 6 December, the European It has been agreed that a Commission’s Chief Brexit negotiator, The EU27 Member States will set up a specific ‘Brexit’ Working Michel Barnier, delivered his opening dedicated committee (Council Working Group) of dedicated officials from their Group will be set up but press statement on the preparations underway at EU level for any Permanent Representations (which act only start after formal notification of Article 50 by the UK. He as Member State footprints in notification of Article 50 by took the time to outline the process Brussels) to cover Brexit matters. Chief Negotiator Barnier will then regularly the United Kingdom. In which would dictate the future negotiations. update and discuss issues with this September, European Working Group over the course of the Commission President According to Barnier, if the UK notifies Article 50 negotiations; and Sherpas Article 50 in March 2017, then (who inform the Heads of Government Jean-Claude Juncker agreement must be reached on the and States). announced the creation of leaving arrangement by October 2018. This date would then allow for On 15 December, the European an Article 50 Task Force to ratification by the EU27 (depending on Council President Donald Tusk made a lay the ground work for which competences the agreement statement after a meeting of the EU27. impending negotiations to covers), the UK Parliament and with Tusk outlined that the Union the consent (a simple majority) of the negotiating team will have a begin. Former Internal European Parliament before the March representative of the rotating Council Market Commissioner, 2019 deadline. Presidency, and that representatives of European Council President Donald Frenchman Michel Barnier, Any future transitional arrangement Tusk will have a supporting role in the is to head operations with a would then depend on whether the negotiations themselves. There will German trade expert EU27 think that it would be useful to also be broad political guidelines, and pursue one. Their decision will depend more detailed directives, drafted by the deputy, Sabine Weyand, on what sort of relationship the UK Member States to give the Union guiding him through the asks for after “Brexit” (and what the negotiating team guidance over the process. The Union other EU27 are prepared to give). course of negotiations. negotiating team will then Any post-Brexit agreement will have to be concluded as with a third country. be Commission led (by This means that new negotiations Barnier) with involvement cannot start until the final Brexit from Council process is completed (i.e. after March 2019). Outside the timing issues, we representatives. can expect a degree of balkanisation – Germany, France, Visegrad,

© Brunswick 2016 | 4 3/ European Parliament that Brexit talks will be completed The largest political Group, the EPP, is before the 2019 European Parliament known to be less enthused about Guy Verhofstadt was appointed by the elections. upcoming negotiations – particularly European Parliament’s political Groups Members coming from non-Eurozone The European Parliament’s elections to report back on the negotiations once countries. They fear that without a they get underway. This will be a for President (a role with increased strong non-Eurozone voice like the UK powers over the years) will come up restricted dialogue between alongside them, their clout risks being Verhofstadt and the political Group for grabs in January 2017, which may reduced in EU debates. heads. The Parliament’s far right EFDD see some shifting in alliances to try and Group (Europe of Freedom and Direct secure the top spot. Expectations so far The resolution will be an important Democracy) nominated Nigel Farage point to the centre-right EPP Group indicator of what the European as its own Brexit observer, causing candidate, Italian Antonio Tajani, Parliament will expect in any final some political complications. taking the position. The European discussion (it has a veto over any Parliament is set to adopt a resolution agreement) but ultimately it will only On 15 December, it was agreed in Spring 2017 which is expected to influence the European Commission’s between the institutions that feed into the negotiating guidelines recommendations to the Member Verhofstadt will have access to the offered by the European Council. States about what to mandate in same briefings as the Council sherpas. Issues such as the UK’s external discussions. It is unlikely the Member The United Kingdom’s “Brexit borders (particularly with Ireland) are States will take kindly to any Minister” David Davis, was recently in expected to feature. There are perception they are being held to Strasbourg to discuss negotiations however some indications that ransom by the European Parliament. with the Members of the European tensions between political Groups are Parliament. During Davis’ talks with not as unified over the Brexit issues as Verhofstadt the official line stood for, Verhofstadt’s rhetoric implies.

Assumptions about the Article 50 process

 The “negotiation period” under implications. Even within the Article 50 will not take up the full 2 mainland UK, many constitutional years. The Member States (EU27) will issues – such as the status of Scotland only begin to draft their guidelines for and Wales – will likely require further the European Commission to clarity. These issues will not be solved negotiate with after official notification quickly and may involve timely legal is given by the United Kingdom challenges. signaling its intent to withdraw  The Article 50 timetable will put membership from the European pressure on a principle based Union. Institutional estimates expect negotiation. The two year – or less these guidelines to be ready within than two year – negotiation period will three to five weeks after notification – not involve any "tweaking of issues”, but more cautious estimates suggest or reopening of complex legislation or that they will not be ready until May or files. There will likely be a broad August 2017. sweeping approach meaning that  The Article 50 negotiations will be a industry will be have to wait its turn if broad exit arrangement. Both the it wants to cherry pick or influence United Kingdom, and EU27 have said existing legislation. that these discussions will focus on the  A successful Article 50 requires a mechanics of withdrawal – and not the constructive approach from both foundations of a new relationship. sides. To make any significant That agreement will come later, if at headway in the tight timeframe for all. The Article 50 agreement will focus withdrawal, there is a need for a on issues like how to deal with budget reasoned and dispassionate contributions, borders, any ongoing discussion. The tensions are currently cases in the European Court of Justice, riding high and whilst both parties EU building and infrastructure remain adamant that there is no desire settlements and citizens' rights (such to “punish” the other – the atmosphere as the future status of EU27 nationals will do nothing to foster compromise. in the UK; and vice versa). Depending  Can Article 50 be revoked? The on whether the UK indicates it wants reversibility of Article 50 will likely some form of post-Article 50 prove increasingly important going agreement; any transitional forward. To achieve so much, in so arrangement will likely be more status little time, there is a risk that the UK quo (equivalence regime) than will be pushed into revoking Article 50 “bespoke”. – or into walking away from a last  The UK's constitution will be of minute deal with the EU27. The ability utmost importance. Core to ‘undo’ Article 50 once triggered still overlapping concerns for the UK, EU needs to be legally analysed. and other Member States will need to be handled carefully if and when the UK extracts itself from the EU framework. A core concern for Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier - and British neighbor the Irish Republic - is the implications of withdrawal on Northern Ireland. A “hard border” is a concern for both parties given the perceived backward step such a border would send about relations between the two countries; as well as for logistical security and defence

Article 50 process in action

1. EU steering process 1. The Member State representatives feed into the European Council position through their respective European Council (EU 27) channels. Sherpas help to feed back and update Heads of Member States and Government on this General Affairs Council Sherpas process. 2. The European Council provides European Parliament Brexit negotiating directives to provide negotiator guidance to the Union negotiators COREPER for use in the negotiating sessions. 3. Negotiating sessions take place; on Council Working Group on the European side Michel Barnier the Brexit from the European Commission takes the lead role, with representatives of Donald Tusk and the Council Presidency also present in the room. The United Kingdom’s negotiating set up is still to be defined. 2. 4. European Parliament 4. The European Union negotiating team reports information back to 4. the European Parliament who Article 50 negotiations provide soft feedback. The team also reports back to the Council Working Party on the UK, who are EU Negotiating Team consulted about developments. Article 50 Task Force (Barnier led). Representatives of Donald Tusk and Council Presidency.

3. Negotiation sessions

UK Negotiating Team DExEU and Cabinet Office UK Permanent Representation to the EU

In focus

European institutional framework (declared or probable)

European Council 1. 2. Council of the EU: Council Working Group

European Commission

12. Article 50 Task Force 4. 3. European Commission Council Presidency Representatives Departments Representatives of Donald Tusk

13. Single Contact Points Union negotiating team

11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5.

European Parliament

Personalities: 1. Donald Tusk (President, European Council); 2. Didier Seeuws (Brexit Coorindator, European Council); 3. Sabine Weyand (Deputy Chief Negotiator, European Commission); 4. Michel Barnier (Chief Negotiator, European Commission); 5. Guy Verhofstadt (Chief liaison for the European Parliament/Leader, ALDE Group); 6. Manfred Weber (Leader, EPP Group); 7. Gianni Pittella (Leader, S&D Group); 8. Syed Kamall (Leader; ECR Group); 9. Gabriele Zimmer (Leader, GUE Group); 10. Ska Keller (Co-leader, Greens Group); 11. Philippe Lamberts (Co-leader, Greens Group); 12. Jean-Claude Juncker (President, European Commission); 13 Martin Selmayr (Head of Cabinet, Jean-Claude Juncker)

The European Council will maintain whole European Union, not just the negotiating rounds between Michel control of the “Brexit” process through European Commission). Barnier and the UK negotiating team. a set of broad negotiating guidelines – “Sherpas” (the chief foreign policy/EU initially principle based, and then Within the European Union’s policy advisors of the Prime Ministers) negotiating team, the lead negotiator supplemented by specific “directives” will brief the Heads of State or (drawn up by national Ministers for the will be Michel Barnier. A Government on what is going on. representative of the Council EU) containing greater detail as and when it is needed over the course of Presidency (who have a coordinating On the European Parliament side, Guy role for ministerial discussions on a six Verhofstadt, and therefore the negotiations. This work is expected to be coordinated by Didier Seeuws and month rotation) will be present in the Conference of Presidents (heads of Union negotiating team and therefore political Groups) are expected to his internal task force team in the Council. Aside from setting the broad directly involved with the coordination receive the same level of briefing as the work taking place between the Member States. The European framework of negotiations, Member European Commission’s core Brexit Parliament has no functional role in the States will have a presence in the team and the European Commission’s negotiation process itself, but will need negotiation process, albeit of a less practical nature than Michel Barnier own departments. Representatives of to give consent by simple majority to Donald Tusk are also be to present, any final agreement. (who will negotiate on behalf of the with observer status, in any

In focus

United Kingdom (declared or probable)

Devolved Westminster institutions

15. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.

Conservative MPs Opposition parties 4. Downing Street 5.

“EU Unit”: 6. Cabinet office 2. 3. DExEU: Government Ministry Bank of England 16. 9.

7. 8.

Personalities: 1. Theresa May (Prime Minister, United Kingdom); 2. Jeremy Heywood (Head, Civil Service); 3. Oliver Robbins (EU Sherpa, Head of Cabinet Office Brexit unit and Permanent Secretary, DExEU); 4. Boris Johnson (Foreign Secretary); 5. Liam Fox (International Trade); 6. David Davis (“Brexit” DExEU Minister); 7. Alex Ellis (Director General, DExEU); 8. Sarah Healey (Director General, DExEU); 9. Tim Barrow (the UK Permanent Representative to the EU); 10. Philip Hammond (Chancellor of the Exchequer, MP,“Remainer”, Conservative Party); 11. Jeremy Corbyn (Leader, Labour Party); 12. Caroline Lucas (Co-leader, Greens Party); 13. Angus Robertson MP (Leader; SNP Party in Westminster); 14. Tim Farron MP (Leader; Liberal Democrats in Westminster); 15. Nicola Sturgeon (First Minister, Scottish Parliament); 16. Mark Carney (Chairman, Bank of England);

As of 2017, a new Unit is to be set up in world as well as responsibility for the We can expect that Robbins will be the Cabinet Office (department wider European and Global Issues heavily influential in the advising of supporting the work of the Prime Secretariat at the Cabinet Office. He is Theresa May on issues relating to the Minister and Cabinet) to cover Brexit. It known to be very close to the Head of exit of the UK from the European will comprise civil servants from the the Civil Service Jeremy Heywood. Union. His strong personal Cabinet Office proper, the Treasury connections within the Cabinet Office Robbins will be joined by Alex Ellis at and the Foreign and Commonwealth are likely to make him a key influence office. Oliver Robbins is the Permanent DExEU, current British Ambassador to on in the Prime Minister’s thinking in Brazil. Ellis has experience both in the Secretary (Department Head) under the lead up to March 2017. David Davis in the so-called ‘Brexit Permanent Representation of the UK to the European Union (covering, UK Permanent Representative Sir Ivan Ministry’ (DExEU). Robbins will have responsibility for supporting Cabinet in amongst others, enlargement issues) Rogers submitted his resignation on 3 and in the political Cabinet of former January. Tim Barrow, a career examining options for the United Kingdom’s future relationship outside European Commission President José diplomat, was announced a day later as Manuel Barroso. his replacement. the EU, with Europe, and the rest of the

A “race” against time Brexit timeline

25 March EU 28 Informal Meeting European Council adopt guidelines for the 22-23 June “Conclusion of a political reflection framework of Article negotiations European on the future of the EU” (Rome); Council 16 December 60th Anniversary of the Rome On the basis of a European Commission (Brussels) EU 27 Informal meeting Treaty recommendation, General Affairs Council formally open negotiations, which can then begin immediately Estimate whereby EU27 to 3 February Michel Barnier (European Commission Article 50 EU Level EU 15-16 March have agreed on detailed Task Force) is to liaise with the Council Working 15 December EU 27 Informal European Council negotiating mandate Group and the European Parliament. European Council Meeting (Malta) Meeting (Brussels) 3-5 weeks after Article 50 is triggered: 3-5 months after Article 50 2017 Q2 Q3

January March May Supreme Court UK expected to notify

UK UK local elections ruling on who can intent to withdraw trigger Article 50 from EU (Art.50)

4 December January 12 February 15 March 23 April May 11/18 June September Italian Constitutional Poss. Switzerland law German Netherlands French Poss. Italian French legislative German Federal referendum favouring Swiss Presidential general Presidential General election elections elections residents over EU election election election

EU 27 EU Austrian Presidential migrants to be election proposed

October TBC: TBC: March 2019 EU27/UK Brexit deal needs to EU27 ratification European Parliament European elections allow six months for ratification ratification or parties agree to extend the negotiations

Q4 2018 Q2 Q4 2019

TBC: UK Parliament ratification

October 28 January April/May 9 September TBC October Czech legislative Finnish Hungarian Swedish general Czech Presidential elections Presidential legislative elections elections elections elections

TBC October Irish Presidential elections

EU Level EU 27 UK

Vice-President, four Vice-Presidents 2017.(Term– 2.5Years) EU institutions and twenty one other Commissioners with a policy portfolio. There is also a Article 50 Task Force: The “EU” side European Council: Formation of EU High Representative who represents of the table in Brexit negotiations. Member States Heads of State and the EU internationally. Made up of political figures and civil Government. They meet at least four servants from the European times a year and largely set the European Commission President: Commission, and representatives from direction for future EU integration. The President ‘s role is to determine Member State governments. European Council President: Donald the political direction of the European Tusk (Term – 2.5 Years) Commission, organize the College of Council Working Group on Brexit: Commissioners and allocate portfolios Formal formation for national Sherpa:Personal representative of a to its other members. Current representatives from the EU27 Head of Member State or Government. President: Jean-Claude Juncker Member States to discuss specifics of Brexit negotiations on a rolling basis. Council of the European Union: Co- European Commission Vice- legislator for European legislation, Presidents: Vice-Presidents are made up of ministers for the EU Commissioners who have a UK institutions Member States. They typically sit in coordination role between the work of Commissioners with portfolios that formations which correspond their Prime Minister: Head of Government closely interlink. portfolios. Headed by: Rotating (and “First amongst equals” in the Member State “Presidency” of six Cabinet) month terms. The Presidency role is European Commissioner: A largely one of coordination and agenda member of the Commission College. Cabinet:A collective decision making setting. The “Presidency” country They are assigned responsibility for a body formed of the most senior coordinates all levels of activity within specific policy area and one or more Government ministers. the Council of the EU. Directorates-General (DGs) by the European Commission President. COREPER: Decisions made by national Cabinet Office: Civil service department ,which supports the Prime ministers in the Council of the EU Directorate-General (DG): A Minister and Cabinet of ministers. formations are prepared by groups of European Commission department national government officials (the akin to a national ministry. Secretary of State: A Cabinet Minister Permanent Representatives in charge of a Government Director-General: The most senior Committee). They divide into two department. “ranks” of national officials. civil servant position heading each Commission ministry. Appointments COREPER II: Meeting of to this position require Member State Permanent Secretary: Most senior ambassadors who cover topics backing and are typically political in civil servant in a Government ministry. relating to foreign affairs, justice and nature. They report to the Secretary of State. home affairs and economic and financial affairs. Cabinet: The political staff of the Director General: A senior civil COREPER I: Meeting of deputy individual Commissioners who set the servant who reports directly to the ambassadors who deal with all other aims to which the Commission DG Permanent Secretary. areas of EU policy making. thenworkstowards. The Permanent Representation of European Commission: The EU’s civil European Parliament: Directly the United Kingdom to the service which drafts and enforces EU electedchambermade up of 751 MEPs European Union (UKREP) :A legislation. from all 28 Member States. These diplomatic mission from the UK to the national delegates then form EU-wide European Union and represents the College of Commissioners: The political Groups which are made up Member State in Council Working European Commission’s political from across the EU. European Groups. UKREP now reports directly to leadership during a five year term. It Parliament President: A new DExEU. UK Permanent compromises one President, one first President will be elected in January Representative: Tim Barrow

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