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An Introduction to Petroleum Technology, Economics, and Politics

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An Introduction to Petroleum Technology, Economics, and Politics An Introduction to Petroleum Technology, Economics, and Politics Scrivener Publishing 3 Winter Street, Suite 3 Salem, MA 01970 Scrivener Publishing Collections Editors James E. R. Couper Ken Dragoon Richard Erdlac Rafiq Islam Pradip Khaladkar Vitthal Kulkarni Norman Lieberman Peter Martin W. Kent Muhlbauer Andrew Y. C. Nee S. A. Sherif James G. Speight Publishers at Scrivener Martin Scrivener ([email protected]) Phillip Carmical ([email protected]) An Introduction to Petroleum Technology, Economics, and Politics James G. Speight Scrivener WILEY Copyright © 2011 by Scrivener Publishing LLC. All rights reserved. Co-published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Hoboken, New Jersey, and Scrivener Publishing LLC, Salem, Massachusetts. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or other- wise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Ill River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic formats. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com. For more information about Scrivener products please visit www.scrivenerpublishing.com. Cover design by Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: ISBN 978-1-118-01299-4 Printed in the United States of America 10 987654321 Contents Preface ix 1 History and Terminology of Crude Oil 1 1.1 Historical Perspectives 3 1.2 Modern Perspectives 14 1.3 Oil Companies 15 1.4 Definitions and Terminology 17 1.4.1 Petroleum 21 1.4.2 Natural Gas 23 1.4.3 Heavy Oil 25 1.4.4 Tar Sand Bitumen 26 1.5 References 28 2 Origin and Occurrence of Oil 31 2.1 The Formation of Oil 35 2.2 Reservoirs 36 2.2.1 Reservoir Structure 36 2.2.2 Accumulation in Reservoirs 38 2.2.3 Distribution of Fluids in the Reservoir 39 2.2.4 Migration of Reservoir Fluids 41 2.2.5 Transformation of Petroleum in the Reservoir 42 2.2.6 Relationship of Petroleum Composition and Properties 44 2.3 Reservoir Classification 45 2.4 Reservoir Evaluation 49 2.4.1 Depletable and Renewable Resources 49 2.4.2 Development of Resources 50 2.4.3 New Evaluation Technology 51 2.5 Estimation of Reserves in Place 52 2.6 Reserves 55 2.6.1 Conventional Petroleum 56 v vi CONTENTS 2.6.2 Natural Gas 57 2.6.3 Heavy Oil 58 2.6.4 Tar Sand Bitumen 59 2.7 References 62 3 Exploration, Recovery, and Transportation 65 3.1 Exploration 66 3.2 Drilling 70 3.2.1 Preparing to Drill 70 3.2.2 The Drilling Rig 71 3.2.3 Drilling 72 3.2.4 Well Completion 73 3.3 Recovery 75 3.3.1 Primary Recovery (Natural Methods) 77 3.3.2 Secondary Recovery 79 3.3.3 Enhanced Oil Recovery 82 3.4 Bitumen Recovery 86 3.4.1 Mining Methods 86 3.4.2 Non-Mining Methods 88 3.5 Transportation 91 3.6 Products and Product Quality 97 3.7 References 100 4 Crude Oil Classification and Benchmarks 103 4.1 Crude Oil Classification 105 4.1.1 Classification as a Hydrocarbon Resource 107 4.1.2 Classification by Chemical Composition 107 4.1.3 Density and API Gravity 109 4.1.4 Viscosity 109 4.1.5 UOP Characterization Factor 110 4.1.6 Pour Point 110 4.1.7 Recovery Method 111 4.2 Classification of Reserves 111 4.2.1 SPE Standards 114 4.2.2 SEC Standards 119 4.2.3 Russian Standards 122 4.2.4 Miscellaneous Standards 125 CONTENTS vii 4.3 Benchmark Crude Oils 126 4.4 References 132 5 The Petroleum Culture 135 5.1 The Petroleum Culture 138 5.2 Oil in Perspective 138 5.2.1 History 138 5.2.2 The Middle East Emerges 140 5.2.3 Recent History 144 5.3 The Seven Sisters 145 5.4 Reserve Estimates 148 5.4.1 Historical Variation of Reserve Estimates 149 5.4.2 Patterns of Use 151 5.4.3 Energy and the Political Costs of Oil 154 5.4.4 Price Swings 155 5.5 References 156 6 Oil Prices 159 6.1 Oil Price History 161 6.2 Pricing Strategies 164 6.3 Oil Price and Analysis 168 6.4 The Anatomy of Crude Oil Prices 172 6.5 The Anatomy of Gasoline Prices 175 6.6 Effect of Refining Capacity 178 6.6.1 Refinery Types and Crude Slate 179 6.6.2 U.S. Refining Capacity 182 6.6.3 World Refining Capacity 182 6.6.4 Refining and Refinery Economics 184 6.7 Outlook 187 6.8 References 191 7 The Crude Oil Market 193 7.1 The Crude Oil Market 195 7.2 Global Oil Consumption 199 viii CONTENTS 7.3 Refining and The Markets 205 7.4 Profitability 211 7.5 References 212 8 Oil Supply 215 8.1 Physical Factors 216 8.2 Technological Factors 220 8.3 Economic Factors 223 8.4 Geopolitical Factors 228 8.5 Peak Oil 231 8.5.1 Peak Oil Theory 231 8.5.2 Effects and Consequences of Peak Oil 235 8.6 The Impact of Heavy Oil and Tar Sand Bitumen 237 8.7 References 242 9 The Future 245 9.1 Undiscovered Oil 249 9.2 Coal 252 9.3 Oil Shale 255 9.4 Liquids from Biomass 260 9.5 Energy Independence 264 9.6 Energy Security 270 9.7 References 275 Conversion Factors 281 Glossary 283 Index 311 Preface Crude oil is the major source of fuel used in the modern world. It is generally in a liquid state and is recovered by drilling and pump- ing, after which it is transported in tankers and pipelines. The crude oil sector is the largest and most dominant economic sector of business in the United States. It is increasingly apparent that responsibility for the long-term consequences of economic and technological development decisions is extremely important and the logic of looking after the short term and letting the future take care of itself seems harder and harder to justify or sustain. Solving the supply problem requires innovative approaches, economic attractiveness, environmental appeal, and social responsibility. Such a course of action calls for background knowledge of the char- acter of crude oil and the various factors that contribute to the price. In fact, the market price on which contractual arrangements are settled is full of unknowns, concealing everything about trends in the costs of production. In the surplus, represented by the differ- ence between the sale price obtained and the costs incurred, there is the shareholders' expected return on their investment (ROI), which determines whether, when, and on what terms petroleum-pricing influences the market. The economics of crude oil pricing is one of the most complex and variable mechanisms in the commodities market. It is affected by a host of different factors, and it can be extremely difficult to determine which factors have the greatest impact on the actual spot price at any given point in time. In the past year, the crude oil markets have been extremely volatile; there have been claims that they have been subject to manipulation but the evidence is sorely lacking. On the other hand, if manipulation does not drive the oil markets, there is no evidence either that it does not take place. The whole issue is so debatable that the true drivers of the market may never be known with any degree of certainty. One way for scientists, engineers, and people of lesser techni- cal backgrounds to remove themselves from the dark shadow of economic guesswork is to understand, to some extent, the techno- logical and political factors that are involved in crude oil economics. IX x PREFACE Crude oil prices behave much as any other commodity, with wide price swings in times of shortage or oversupply. The crude oil price cycle may extend over several years, responding to changes in demand as well as supply.
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