Rethinking the Asian Marker Debate

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Rethinking the Asian Marker Debate Rethinking the Asian Marker Debate MASTER’S THESIS Fabian Weber International Energy (M.A.) Academic Year 2014/15 Supervisor: Giacomo Luciani, Scientific Advisor The copyright of this Master's thesis remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests sh ould be sent to [email protected] Rethinking the Asian Marker Debate Acknowledgements First and foremost, I would like to sincerely thank Giacomo Luciani for his continuous guid- ance, persistence and trust throughout the planning and writing of this paper. My deep grati- tude furthermore goes to Bassam Fattouh for enabling me to conduct research under his men- torship at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES). Both his expertise and experience were of inestimable value and greatly influenced the work at hand. I would also like to thank the OIES at large for the uncomplicated administration of my stay. This paper has also ma- jorly benefited of the discussions with several experts in the field, whom I would like to thank for their willingness to share their views and expertise. Although these engaging dis- cussions have deeply shaped this paper, any remaining shortcomings and errors are my own. Last but not least, I would like to thank Dominika for her continuous and absolute support throughout the entire process. It is in her arms that my mind finds the peace and strength for all challenges ahead. -2- Rethinking the Asian Marker Debate Abstract The purpose of this paper is to firstly analytically structure the fundaments of crude price benchmarks before secondly addressing the issue of the Asian marker. In doing so, a particu- lar focus shall be placed on the question whether the reference crude for the Asian basin should also originate from this market, given the eastward shift characterising international crude oil markets today and even more so in the future. Firstly, crude price benchmarks and their two main functions in the current crude oil pricing system are introduced: price discov- ery and price risk management. Thereafter, recent structural shifts in international oil markets in terms of both market fundamentals and regulatory environment are presented. Subse- quently, the Asian marker debate and the most common candidates are established, before critically evaluating the need for an Asian marker located in Asia. Last but not least, the DME Oman/Dubai complex is proposed as an innovative example of an Asian marker lo- cated outside of Asia, consequently rebuilding the current Middle Eastern benchmark system and strengthening its position in times of eastward shifting balance of power in international oil markets. -3- Rethinking the Asian Marker Debate List of Contents 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................6 2 Formula Pricing and Benchmarks..................................................................................6 2.1 The Rationales for Benchmarks ..................................................................................7 2.1.1 Price Discovery....................................................................................................7 2.1.2 Price Risk Management .....................................................................................10 2.2 Two-Dimensionality of Benchmarks ........................................................................12 3 Oil Markets in Transition ..............................................................................................13 3.1 Market Fundamentals................................................................................................13 3.2 Market Regulation.....................................................................................................16 4 The Asian Marker Debate .............................................................................................18 4.1 Candidates Located Outside of Asia .........................................................................19 4.1.1 The Platts Dubai/Oman Assessment..................................................................19 4.1.2 The DME Oman Crude Oil Futures Contract....................................................23 4.1.3 The Platts Dated Brent Assessment ...................................................................26 4.2 Candidates Located in Asia.......................................................................................28 4.2.1 The East Siberia-Pacific Ocean Blend...............................................................28 4.2.2 The Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Contract.........................................................33 4.3 Evaluating the Arguments for a Marker Located in Asia .........................................35 5 An Alternative: Rebuilding the Middle Eastern Marker ...........................................38 5.1 The Linkage...............................................................................................................38 5.2 Fixing Dubai..............................................................................................................40 5.3 Fixing DME Oman....................................................................................................41 5.4 Dealing with Shifting Market Trends .......................................................................42 6 Outlook and Conclusions...............................................................................................42 References...............................................................................................................................44 List of Figures Figure 1: East Siberia-Pacific Ocean Pipeline (Phase I/II) .................................................30 -4- Rethinking the Asian Marker Debate List of Abbreviations API............................................................................................... American Petroleum Institute APPI.................................................................................................Asia Petroleum Price Index ASCI ..................................................................................................... Argus Sour Crude Index b/d ....................................................................................................................... Barrels per day BALMO .................................................................................................... Balance of the Month BFOE ................................................................................. Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk BWAVE............................................................................................... Brent Weighted Average CEO........................................................................................................ Chief Executive Officer CNPC ........................................................................... China National Petroleum Corporation DME............................................................................................... Dubai Mercantile Exchange EFP....................................................................................... Exchange of Futures for Physicals EFS............................................................................................. Exchange of Futures for Swaps EIA.............................................................................. U.S. Energy Information Administration ESMA .................................................................... European Securities and Markets Authority ESPO................................................................................................ East Siberia-Pacific Ocean FEPCO ................................................................................... Far East Petrochemical Complex FOB...................................................................................................................... Free-on-board GMT........................................................................................................ Greenwich Mean Time GPW......................................................................................................... Gross Products Worth ICE .................................................................................................... Intercontinental Exchange IEA................................................................................................ International Energy Agency INE............................................................................ Shanghai International Energy Exchange IOSCO..................................................... International Organization of Securities Commission IPE........................................................................................ International Petroleum Exchange IPRO ..................................................................... Independent Price Reporting Organisations km .............................................................................................................................. Kilometres Libor.......................................................................................... London Interbank Offered Rate Mogas................................................................................................................. Motor Gasoline NYMEX...................................................................................
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