Petroleum Argus Energy, Investment and Politics
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Petroleum Argus Energy, investment and politics Volume XLVIII, 4, 26 January 2018 Fractured world EDITORIAL: China and the US’ US president Donald Trump has decided to impose tariffs on imported solar diverging energy pathways make panels, highlighting the divergent energy pathways envisaged by the world’s investment decisions more dif- largest energy users. China plans to become a global leader in renewable energy ficult for oil and gas producers technology at home and abroad, as it reduces its dependence on domestic coal. But the US aims to become a net energy exporter, as it exploits its shale reserves to reinforce its position as the world’s biggest oil and natural gas producer. Investment in renewable energy could soon rival upstream spending on oil and gas. Global clean energy investment — mainly solar and wind power — reached $334bn last year, consultancy Bloomberg New Energy Finance says. This was around three-quarters of the amount spent on upstream oil and gas, after the oil price slump in 2014-16 spurred an unprecedented decline in investment. China’s investment in clean energy is now at parity with US upstream oil and gas spending. China leads the world in clean energy investment, spending $133bn, or 40pc of the global total, in 2017. A surge in solar power investment accounted for two-thirds of the country’s clean energy total last year. US upstream spending tumbled by 40pc to just $81bn in 2015-16, the IEA says. Higher oil prices are spurring a second year of revived US upstream investment, but China’s ambitious spending plans for clean energy are expected to keep pace. Energy companies face a dilemma as they try to make investment decisions. New technology is transforming energy supply and demand, giving consumers more control and choice. But the rate of change is uncertain and energy infra- structure is designed to last, perpetuating current patterns. “Some facts are stubborn in the absence of government policies driving change,” IEA chief economist Fatih Birol recently told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzer- land. “The share of fossil fuels was 81pc 30 years ago. Many things have changed in technology and the share is still 81pc today.” Some embrace change. French energy firm Engie last year sold upstream LNG assets to Total. It plans to focus on low-carbon electricity production, gas infrastructure and downstream energy. “New technology is distributed,” Engie chief executive Isabelle Kocher told a Davos panel. “Consumers become ‘prosum- CONTENTS ers’, producing part of the energy themselves.” The European majors are taking tentative steps in the same direction, with small but growing investments in Aramco IPO in uncharted territory 2 renewables and low-carbon technology. West Africa reboots exploration 3 Saudi Arabia seeks ‘permanency’ 4 Boom and bust Russia mulls deal future 5 But others are concerned that under-investment in oil and gas will soon trigger Service firms eye exciting 2018 6 another damaging boom and bust cycle for the industry. “Demand is growing IMF tweaks growth forecast 7 strongly, many fields are declining,” Birol says. “How are we going to meet the peak in demand if we are not investing today?” US blending mandate battle rages 8 Cost is key. Rapidly falling costs will make new energy technologies more India dithers on price hikes 9 affordable, as manufacturers innovate and scale up output, giving consumers Venezuela’s isolation increases 10 control over investment decisions and accelerating change. But suppliers of Egypt faces watershed year 11 existing capital-intensive energy sources, such as oil and gas, still face critical Gasoline shortfall shakes Nigeria 12 investment decisions. Without clearer policy signals from governments, energy Market overview 15 companies will have to keep their costs down and their options open. Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Petroleum Argus 26 January 2018 SAUDI ARABIA Aramco IPO still in uncharted territory Oil minister Khalid al-Falih Market forces will determine the value of state-owned Saudi Aramco for the refuses to provide a date for purpose of its planned initial public offering (IPO), Saudi Arabian oil minister the state-owned company’s Khalid al-Falih says. planned initial public offering Crown price Mohammad bin Salman and “everyone else involved realise that this will be a market-determined process”, al-Falih told the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on 24 January. Prince Mohammad is the driving force behind Riyadh’s Vision 2030 economic diversification plan, of which Aramco’s partial privatisation forms a central part. “We cannot set Aramco’s share price,” al-Falih says. “Every IPO is a process of discovery.” Proposed figures for the company’s valuation are “just speculation”. Aramco’s concession to manage and process most of Saudi Arabia’s oil is the main factor that will determine the firm’s value, al-Falih says. He estimates the country’s oil reserves at 261bn bl, and its natural gas deposits at several hundred trillion ft³. Riyadh is interested in “optimising the value” of the resources, al-Falih says. “I predict that these estimates will rise in time. This will hopefully be taken into account — against some ill-advised commentary about oil nearing its end.” Prince Mohammad expects Aramco’s valuation to be at least $2 trillion — the government would generate around $100bn through its sale of a 5pc stake. The shares were originally scheduled to float on Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock exchange and 2-3 other international platforms in the second half of this year. But al-Falih refuses to provide a date for the IPO, saying the firm will be listed “when the time is right” — although it is ready “from a corporate standpoint”. The non-elected Shura advisory council has asked securities regulator the CMA to study the effect of partially listing Aramco on Tadawul. The government has converted Aramco into a joint stock company, replacing its previous bylaws with new ones that enable private-sector investors to hold shares. But full control of the country’s oil and gas reserves remains in Riyadh’s hands under the new structure. The government is “solely responsible” for making final decisions on production and sustainable capacity. And the new bylaws allow the oil ministry to formulate strategies and national policies covering the oil and gas sector. Full control of the country’s Aramco’s partial privatisation is the centrepiece of a wider government plan oil and gas reserves remains to offload state assets, as Riyadh seeks to diversify the economy away from its in Riyadh’s hands under the overwhelming dependence on oil. The government wants the private sector to be company’s new structure the main source of new job creation. Proceeds from Aramco’s IPO will be trans- ferred to the PIF sovereign wealth fund, which will act as a catalyst for domestic and foreign private-sector investment in the country. Riyadh wants small and medium firms to account for a third of the economy by 2030, compared with 20pc last year, commerce minister Majid al-Qasabi says. Scare tactics The arrests of more than 200 princes and high-net worth individuals in November as part of a corruption crackdown initially scared Saudi stock market investors. But the dip was only temporary, as people realised that the campaign was intended to create a level playing field, finance minister Mohammed al-Jadaan says. Riyadh has so far recovered only part of the $100bn that attorney-general Saud al-Mojeb said had been misappropriated, and much of what can be retrieved will be in assets, rather than cash, al-Jadaan says. The recovered cash will be used to fund a government package unveiled earlier this month, to offset the effects of financial reforms. Riyadh has intro- duced a 5pc value-added tax and raised diesel and gasoline prices. Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 2 of 16 Petroleum Argus 26 January 2018 UPSTREAM West Africa reboots exploration drive Higher crude prices and renewed The prospect of a resurgence in exploration activity in west Africa has emerged corporate interest bode well for in recent months, bolstered by a recovery in crude prices and renewed interest the region, particularly Ghana among the majors. and Ivory Coast Cameroon has become the latest to join the hunt for exploration partners, after state-owned SNH formally opened a licensing round for six offshore and two onshore blocks on 15 January. The country is offering improved commercial terms, the company says. But political instability threatens to undermine the investment drive. A year-long government crackdown on protests in Cameroon’s English-speaking regions has fuelled support for armed separatists, raising tensions ahead of a presidential election later this year. West Africa MOROCCO Yaounde has launched the round amid intense competition from regional ALGERIA rivals. Ghana scored a notable victory this month, securing ExxonMobil as the LIBYA new operator of a deepwater exploration block that Russia’s Lukoil relinquished in WESTERN 2015. ExxonMobil previously made an unsuccessful attempt to gain access to SAHARA Ghana’s deepwater sector — the government blocked its $4bn bid to buy US MAURITANIA MALI independent Kosmos Energy’s assets in 2010. NIGER CHAD SENEGAL The firm’s renewed interest partly reflects its drilling success across the other GAMBIA BURKINA FASO side of the Atlantic, offshore Guyana, where it has discovered more than 3.2bn bl GUINEA- BISSAU GUINEA BENIN of oil equivalent in the past three years. South America’s Guyana basin — which SIERRA LEONE IVORY NIGERIA COAST spans French Guiana, Guyana and Suriname — shares many geological similarities LIBERIA GHANA TOGO CAMEROON with west Africa’s transform margin, including offshore Ghana. This stems from when the two continents separated millions of years ago.