Investing in Oil in the Middle East and North Africa
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Report No. 40405-MNA Report No.40405-MNA Report No.Africa inOiltheMiddleEastandNorth Investing 40405-MNA Investing in Oil in the Middle East and North Africa Institutions, Incentives and the National Oil Companies Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized August 2007 Sustainable Development Department Middle East and North Africa Region Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Investing in Oil in the Middle East and North Africa Abbreviations and Acronyms ADNOC Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation NIORDC National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company Bbl Barrel NOC National Oil Company Bcfd Billion cubic feet per day OAPEC Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries Bcm Billion Cubic Meters OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development BP British Petroleum OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries BTU British Thermal Unit PDV Petróleos de Venezuela CEO Chief Executive Officer PEDEC Petroleum Engineering Development Company CNG Compressed Natural Gas PEL Petroleum Economic Limited E&P Exploration and Production PEPA Petroleum Exploration and Production Authority EGPC Egypt Gas Production Company PIW Petroleum Intelligence Weekly EITI Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper FDI Foreign Direct Investment PSA Production-Sharing Agreement FSU Former Soviet Union QP Qatar Petroleum GCC Gulf Cooperation Council R/P Reserve to Production GDP Gross Domestic Product RPLA Resource-Poor, Labor-Abundant GTL Gas to Liquids RRLA Resource-Rich, Labor-Abundant HFO Heavy Fuel Oil RRLI Resource-Rich, Labor-Importing HSE Health, Safety, Environment SABIC Saudi Arabia Basic Industries Corporation IEA International Energy Agency SAFER Safer Oil Exploration and Production Company ILSA Iran-Libya Sanction Act, 1996 SAMA Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency INOC Iraq National Oil Company SAMAREC Saudi Arabia Marketing and Refining Company IOC International Oil Companies SPC Supreme Petroleum Council KNPC Kuwait National Petroleum Company tcm Thousand Cubic Meters KOC Kuwait Oil Company UAE United Arab Emirates KPC Kuwait Petroleum Company UNDP United Nations Development Programme LNG Liquefied Natural Gas WEO World Energy Outlook (IEA) LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas WTI West Texas Intermediate mb/d Million Barrels per Day WTO World Trade Organization mcmd Million Cubic Meters per Day YGC Yemen Gas Company MENA Middle East and North Africa YICOM Yemen Investment Company for Oil and Minerals MGS Master Gas System YLNG Yemen LNG NAMA Arabian Industrial Development Corporation YOGC Yemen Oil and Gas Company NGL Natural Gas Liquids NGO Non-Governmental Organization NIOC National Iranian Oil Company Vice President: Daniela Gressani Sector Director: Inger Andersen Sector Manager: Jonathan D. Walters Task Team Leader: Pierre Audinet Investing in Oil in the Middle East and North Africa Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................. I Why structure matters for petroleum supply, revenues, and development: lessons from four case studies ................................................................................................................. i The case studies....................................................................................................................... ii Policy implications of the case studies.................................................................................. iv 1. OIL IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA: WHY SECTOR STRUCTURE AND NATIONAL OIL COMPANIES MATTER ............................................................... 1 The analytical framework ...................................................................................................... 5 Main lessons from petroleum sector context........................................................................ 8 Main lessons on sector structure and performance........................................................... 16 2. KUWAIT CASE STUDY......................................................................................... 30 Political economy of the petroleum sector structure ......................................................... 30 Structure and sector performance ...................................................................................... 35 3. SAUDI ARABIA CASE STUDY............................................................................. 43 Political economy of the petroleum sector structure ......................................................... 43 Sector structure and performance ...................................................................................... 47 4. IRAN CASE STUDY .............................................................................................. 54 Political economy of the petroleum sector.......................................................................... 54 Sector structure and performance ...................................................................................... 63 5. YEMEN CASE STUDY .......................................................................................... 71 Political economy of the sector............................................................................................. 71 Sector structure and performance ...................................................................................... 77 ANNEX 1: THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA IN GLOBAL OIL AND GAS MARKETS .................................................................................................................... 83 2. Global Oil Market 1960-2006 ......................................................................................... 85 3. Recent Global Oil Market Developments and the Fourth Oil Price Shock................ 92 4. MENA Energy Production, Consumption and Trade................................................. 101 5. Long-Term Outlook for Oil and Gas Production ........................................................ 122 6. MENA Near-Term Oil Development Plans (OPEC Producers)................................. 127 ANNEX 2: STATISTICS ON MENA OIL AND GAS RESERVES, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND REVENUES............................................................................ 131 REFERENCES............................................................................................................ 157 Investing in Oil in the Middle East and North Africa Box 2.1: Project Kuwait................................................................................................................ 34 Box 2.2 Key Observations – Kuwait ........................................................................................... 42 Box 3.1:The Oil and Gas Upstream Opening in Saudi Arabia..................................................... 51 Box 3.2 Key Observations – Saudi Arabia .................................................................................. 53 Box 4.1 The Oil and Gas Upstream Opening in Iran.................................................................... 57 Box 4.2 Key Observations – Iran................................................................................................. 70 Box 5.1 Key Observations – Yemen............................................................................................. 81 Figure 1.1 IEA World Energy Supply Growth ............................................................................... 3 Figure 1.2 MENA Real Oil Export Revenues ................................................................................ 3 Figure 1.3 MENA Oil Production and Oil Prices........................................................................... 4 Figure 2.1 Organizational Structure of the Kuwaiti Petroleum Sector......................................... 31 Figure 2.2 Kuwait: Government Oil Revenues............................................................................. 38 Figure 2.3 The Downstream in Kuwait, 2000–05......................................................................... 39 Figure 2.4 Kuwait: Natural Gas Production and Usage, 2003–05................................................ 41 Figure 3.1 Saudi Arabia: Petroleum Sector Structure................................................................... 44 Figure 3.2 Saudi Arabia: Government Oil Revenues as a Percentage of Oil and gas GDP ......... 48 Figure 3.3 The Downstream in Saudi Arabia, 2000–05 ............................................................... 49 Figure 3.4 Saudi Arabia: Natural Gas Production and Usage, 2003–05 ...................................... 50 Figure 4.1 Iran: Petroleum Sector Structure ................................................................................. 55 Figure 4.2 Iran: Oil Production, 1965–2004................................................................................. 60 Figure 4.3 Iran: Downstream Petroleum Production and Consumption, 2000–05....................... 66 Figure 4.4 Iranian Gasoline, 1995–2005....................................................................................... 66 Figure 4.5 Iran: Natural Gas Production and Usage, 2003–05..................................................... 68 Figure 5.1 Yemen: Petroleum Sector Structure ............................................................................ 72 Figure 5.2 Yemen: Oil Production...............................................................................................