Energy Policy Act of 2005: the Ap Th to Energy Autonomy, The;Note Justin Stolte
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Part I: Introduction
Part I: Introduction “Perhaps the sentiments contained in the following pages are not yet sufficiently fashionable to procure them general favor; a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.” -Thomas Paine, Common Sense (1776) “For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it.” -Patrick Henry (1776) “I am aware that many object to the severity of my language; but is there not cause for severity? I will be as harsh as truth. On this subject I do not wish to think, or speak, or write, with moderation. No! No! Tell a man whose house is on fire to give a moderate alarm; tell him to moderately rescue his wife from the hands of the ravisher; tell the mother to gradually extricate her babe from the fire into which it has fallen -- but urge me not to use moderation in a cause like the present. The apathy of the people is enough to make every statue leap from its pedestal, and to hasten the resurrection of the dead.” -William Lloyd Garrison, The Liberator (1831) “Gas is running low . .” -Amelia Earhart (July 2, 1937) 1 2 Dear Reader, Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. -
Anatomy of the 10-Year Cycle in Crude Oil Prices Philip K. Verleger
Anatomy of the 10-Year Cycle in Crude Oil Prices Philip K. Verleger, Jr. David Mitchell/EnCana Professor of Strategy and International Management Haskayne School of Business University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada March 2009 John Wiley & Sons published Twilight in the Desert in 2005. The book’s author, Mat- thew Simmons, contends the world will confront very high and rising oil prices shortly because the capacity of Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, is insufficient to meet the future needs of oil consumers. In 448 pages, Simmons extensively discusses his views regarding Saudi Arabia’s future production levels. He asserts that the Saudis have refused to provide details about their reserves, insinuating at several points that the Kingdom’s leaders withhold information to keep the truth from the public. At its core, Simmons’ book is no more than a long exposition of the peak oil theory first espoused by King Hubbert in 1956. Hubbert, it may be recalled, studied the pattern of discovery of super giant oil fields. His review led him to conclude that world productive capacity would peak and then begin to decline. In 1974, Hubbert suggested the global zenith would occur around 1995. Simmons and other adherents to the “peak oil theory” enjoyed great prominence in the first half of 2008. Again and again, one read or heard that the oil price rise was occurring be- cause the flow from world oil reserves had reached or was approaching the maximum while de- mand was still growing. Here’s what one economist wrote just as prices peaked: Until this decade, the capacity to supply oil had been growing just as fast as de- mand, leaving plenty of room to expand production at the first sign of rising pric- es. -
Country Analysis Brief: Kuwait
Country Analysis Brief: Kuwait Last Updated: November 2, 2016 Overview Kuwait was the 10th-largest producer of petroleum and other liquids in 2015. As a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Kuwait was the world’s 10th-largest producer of petroleum and other liquids in 2015, and it was the fifth-largest producer of crude oil among the 14 OPEC members. Despite its relatively small geographic size (about 6,900 square miles), in terms of production, it only trailed Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates in production of petroleum and other liquids in 2015. Kuwait's economy is heavily dependent on petroleum export revenues, which accounted for more than 70% of the government’s total revenues in 2015, according to IMF estimates.1 In fact, petroleum exports accounted for almost 89% of total export revenues in 2015.2 Much like other OPEC producers, Kuwait saw the value of its total exports fall sharply in 2015 as crude oil prices fell. In 2014, Kuwait’s value of exports totaled roughly $104 billion and fell to about $55 billion in 2015. The share of petroleum exports in 2014 was 94% of the total export revenue.3 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Kuwait’s net export revenues totaled $40 billion in 2015, about half of what Kuwait earned during the previous year.4 Although some of the decline in net export revenue is a result of a decrease in production and exports during the year, the decrease in crude oil prices accounted for most of the decline in net export revenues. -
Recent Development
SHUFF RD_FORMAT_PAGINATED_FINAL-4_8.DOC 04/08/2008 1:27:58 PM RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SLIPPERY SLOPES AND PIGS: IMPACTS OF THE PRUDHOE BAY SHUT-IN I. INTRODUCTION In the spring of 2006, a leaky pipe led to a flood of problems for the world’s third largest oil company. British Petroleum (“BP”) owns a 26% interest in Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay oil field and operates the property on behalf of itself and the other owners, ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Forest Oil.1 On March 2, 2006, more than 200,000 gallons of crude oil—“the largest spill” on record in the North Slope of Alaska—leaked from a corroded transit pipeline maintained by BP.2 Following this disaster and the discovery of a second leak in its transit pipeline, BP partially shut-in production of the Prudhoe Bay field.3 In both cases, the culprit was a dangerously corroded length of transmission pipe entrusted to the care of BP.4 Section I of this Recent Development explains the events leading to the March spill, the subsequent discovery of pipeline corrosion, and the gap, if any, between what BP was obligated to do and what it actually did to try to prevent this catastrophe. Section II considers the potential effects BP’s curtailment of Prudhoe Bay crude production might have on domestic oil supply and whether or not some early forecasts of doom and gloom are 5 accurate assessments of the supply picture or simply hyperbole. 1. Wesley Loy & Richard Mauer, Prudhoe Bay: Prudhoe Owners Face Subpoenas, ANCHORAGE DAILY NEWS, Aug. -
What Is Peak Oil?
What Is Peak Oil? 1. What is peak oil? ―Peak oil‖ is the term used to describe the situation when the amount of oil that can be extracted from the earth in a given year begins to decline because geological limitations are reached. Extracting oil becomes more and more difficult, so that costs escalate and the amount of oil produced begins to decline. The term peak oil is generally used to describe a decline in worldwide production, but a similar phenomenon exists for individual countries and other smaller areas. 2. Why would oil production begin to decline? Can’t we extract oil as fast as we want, until it finally runs out, many years from now? What happens isn’t quite as simple as ―running out‖. Oil production in an oil field usually starts at a low level and increases as more oil wells are added. Eventually some of the older wells start producing more and more water mixed with the oil, and pressure declines. Oil companies do what they can to maintain production – drill new wells nearby, inject gas or water to maintain pressure, and apply other newer production techniques. Eventually, the proportion of oil in the oil/water mix becomes very low and the cost of extraction becomes very high. When it costs more to produce the oil than the oil is worth, production is abandoned. On a worldwide basis, the phenomenon of peak oil can be thought of as a crisis in resources needed to produce oil. It’s the size of the tap, not the size of the tank. -
The Oil Crisis and Its Impact on the Air Cargo Industry
The Oil Crisis and its Impact on the Air Cargo Industry Gal Luft, PhD Executive director, Institute for the Analysis of Global security April 2006 The Institute for the Analysis of Global Security is a Washington based non-profit public educational organization dedicated to research and public debate on issues related to energy security. IAGS seeks to promote public awareness to the strong impact energy has on the world economy and security and to the myriad of technological and policy solutions that could help nations strengthen their energy security. WWW.IAGS.ORG 2 Introduction The first five years of the 21st century have brought a great deal of turmoil and instability to the global oil market. In November 2001, oil prices stood at under $20 a barrel. By April 2006, they crossed the $75 mark. Many reasons brought to the steep rise in oil prices among them growing demand in developing Asia, the collapse of major Russian oil company Yukos, lack of sufficient investment, terrorism and political instability in several oil producing countries, fear of military confrontation with Iran and increased hurricane activity in the U.S. This sudden rise in oil prices has already taken a toll on the global economy. The International Monetary Fund suggests that the recent oil price increases were the primary factor behind the decline of global GDP growth by 0.7–0.8 percentage points in 2005–06 relative to 2004. While oil prices impact global economy at large they impose a particular burden on energy intensive industries like the transportation and petrochemical industries. -
Investing in Oil in the Middle East and North Africa
Report No. 40405-MNA Report No.40405-MNA Report No.Africa inOiltheMiddleEastandNorth Investing 40405-MNA Investing in Oil in the Middle East and North Africa Institutions, Incentives and the National Oil Companies Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized August 2007 Sustainable Development Department Middle East and North Africa Region Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Investing in Oil in the Middle East and North Africa Abbreviations and Acronyms ADNOC Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation NIORDC National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company Bbl Barrel NOC National Oil Company Bcfd Billion cubic feet per day OAPEC Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries Bcm Billion Cubic Meters OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development BP British Petroleum OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries BTU British Thermal Unit PDV Petróleos de Venezuela CEO Chief Executive Officer PEDEC Petroleum Engineering Development Company CNG Compressed Natural Gas PEL Petroleum Economic Limited E&P Exploration and Production PEPA Petroleum Exploration and Production Authority EGPC Egypt Gas Production Company PIW Petroleum Intelligence Weekly EITI Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper FDI Foreign Direct Investment PSA Production-Sharing Agreement FSU Former Soviet Union QP Qatar Petroleum GCC Gulf Cooperation -
Oil: the Next Revolution
The Geopolitics of Energy Project Oil: The Next Revolution THE UNPRECEDENTED UPSURGE OF OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WORLD Leonardo Maugeri June 2012 Discussion Paper #2012-10 Geopolitics of Energy Project Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Fax: (617) 495-8963 Email: [email protected] Website: http://belfercenter.org Copyright 2012 President and Fellows of Harvard College The author of this report invites use of this information for educational purposes, requiring only that the reproduced material clearly cite the full source: Maugeri, Leonardo. “Oil: The Next Revolution” Discussion Paper 2012-10, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, June 2012. Statements and views expressed in this discussion paper are solely those of the author and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University, the Harvard Kennedy School, or the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Cover image: In this Friday, July 17, 2009 file photo, an Iraqi worker operates valves at the Nahran Omar oil refinery near the city of Basra, 340 miles (550 kilometers) southeast of Baghdad, Iraq. Iraq's central government warned authorities in the semiautonomous Kurdish region on Monday that their oil deals with Turkey must have Baghdad's approval. (AP Photo) OIL: THE NEXT REVOLUTION THE UNPRECEDENTED UPSURGE OF OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WORLD LEONARDO MAUGERI JUNE 2012 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS It is always difficult to keep track of the individuals who contributed to a research work like this, whether by a quick exchange of opinions, data, comments, or a well-articulated set of suggestions. -
Peak Oil Strategic Management Dissertation
STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION FROM PEAK OIL TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY BY SARAH K. ODLAND STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION FROM PEAK OIL TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY BY SARAH K. ODLAND JUNE 2006 ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF BUSINESS AND ACCOUNTING, MERCY COLLEGE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MAY 2006 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS AND CHARTS v LIST OF TABLES vii PREFACE viii INTRODUCTION ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM 1 PART I THE BIG ROLLOVER: ONSET OF A PETROLEUM DEMAND GAP AND SWITCH TO A SELLERS’ MARKET CHAPTER 1 WHAT”S OIL EVER DONE FOR YOU? (AND WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF IT STOPPED DOING IT?) 5 Oil: Cheap Energy on Demand - Oil is Not Just a Commodity - Heavy Users - Projected Demand Growth for Liquid Petroleum - Price Elasticity of Oil Demand - Energy and Economic Growth - The Dependence of Productivity Growth on Expanding Energy Supplies - Economic Implications of a Reduced Oil Supply Rate CHAPTER 2 REALITY CHECK: TAKING INVENTORY OF PETROLEUM SUPPLY 17 The Geologic Production of Petroleum - Where the Oil Is and Where It Goes - Diminishing Marginal Returns of Production - Hubbert’s Peak: World Oil Production Peaking and Decline - Counting Oil Inventory: What’s in the World Warehouse? - Oil Resources versus Accessible Reserves - Three Camps: The Peak Oilers, Official Agencies, Technology Optimists - Liars’ Poker: Got Oil? - Geopolitical Realities of the Distribution of Remaining World -
Geotimes — October 2005 — Making Sense of Middle Eastern Petroleum
Geotimes — October 2005 — Making Sense of Middle Eastern Petr... http://www.geotimes.org/oct05/feature_MidEastOil.html Feature Making Sense of Middle Eastern Petroleum Rasoul Sorkhabi Another stream, smelling less of sulphur but more of oil, burst from under the rocks a little further on, and it is near here that attempts have been made in the past to tap the petroleum reservoir which probably exists somewhere beneath the ground. Some day a happy man may hit the right spot, and then his fortune is made; but it is a speculative business. Half a dozen inches to the right or left, and you are, as Fate may decide, a pauper or a millionaire. E. C. Williams An English traveler, in Across Persia (1907) People have been using petroleum and bitumen in the Middle East for 5,000 years. But it was not until the 20th century that the Middle East entered the consciousness of the “Hydro-carbon Man” as the petroleum repository of the world, as Daniel Yergin describes in his 1992 book The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. This transition took place over several decades, as modern drilling for oil, beginning in Iran in 1908, in Iraq in 1927, in Bahrain in 1932, and in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in 1938, proved successful. An offshore rig drills for petroleum in the Abu Sa’fah oil field of Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf. The Abu Sa’fah field was discovered in 1963 and has been in operation since 1966. Courtesy of Saudi Aramco. With soaring prices of oil, natural gas and gasoline in recent years, and continuing violence in the Middle East, this region’s petroleum geopolitics remains a major focus of international relations today. -
Considering the End of Affordable Oil
Considering the End of Affordable Oil May 21, 2004 Depending on where your attention is these days, much of the world is preoccupied with war and the economy or the end of popular TV shows. But there has been an intrinsically more interesting story brewing in the popular media during the past few months with analysts, scholars, politicians, and economists beginning to mumble about the world running out of oil. The concept was proposed many years ago and the past two decades have shown that companies were up to the task of finding more oil. But with oil prices at more than $40 per barrel on significantly increased demand, it is a good time to revisit the hypothesis that the world is running out of oil and hence prices are likely to remain above their long-term averages. As shown on the next page, since 1960 the United States has doubled its consumption of crude oil and at 20 million barrels per day, it is still the world’s single largest consumer. However, in 1960, the US accounted for more than 45% of worldwide demand. Today it only accounts for about 25% as the growth in Japan and emerging markets in China and India have pushed consumption up to over 80 million barrels per day. 1 World and U.S. Oil Consumption 80 50% 70 60 40% U.S. Percentage 50 Rest of the World d United States p B 40 30% M M 30 20 20% 10 IEA/Poten 0 10% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 While new discoveries in West Africa, Canada, the US Gulf and Russia are being uncovered, the world, according to several notable analysts, has peaked as far as oil reserves. -
The Peak Oil Debate
Running on empty? The peak oil debate Policy Brief No.16 September 2010 ISSN 1836-9014 David Ingles and Richard Denniss Policy Brief 1 Peak oil glossary ABARE Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics ASPO Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Bbls Barrels of oil BITRE Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics CAFE Corporate average fuel economy CERA Cambridge Energy Research Associates CNG Compressed natural gas CO 2 Carbon dioxide CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial research organisation EIA Energy Information Administration (US) Gb Gigabarrels GFC Global Financial Crisis IEA International Energy Agency ITPOES UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security LNG Liquified natural gas Mbls Million barrels OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OPEC Organisation of Petrol Exporting Countries Tcm Trillion cubic metres UKERC UK Energy Research Centre URR Ultimately recoverable reserves USGS US Geological Survey US EIA US Energy Information Administration WEO World Energy Outlook produced by the IEA Peak oil 2 Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Hugh Saddler and Barry Naughten for helpful comments on the paper. Summary Like climate change, the possibility of peak oil poses an uncomfortable challenge to citizens and governments alike in the 21 st century. ‘Peak oil’ is the term used to describe the point in time at which the worldwide production of crude oil extraction will be maximised. But while it is inevitable that production will peak at some point, it is uncertain when that point will be reached. Peak oil concerns exploded during the rapid escalation of oil prices prior to the 2007 global financial crisis (GFC), and resurfaced recently when oil prices appeared to resume their upward trend.