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Tracking and Disrupting the Illicit Antiquities Trade with Open Source Tracking and Disrupting the Illicit Antiquities Trade with Open-Source Data MATTHEW SARGENT, JAMES V. MARRONE, ALEXANDRA EVANS, BILYANA LILLY, ERIK NEMETH, STEPHEN DALZELL C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2706 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0148-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: Adobe Stock. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The sale of illicit goods provides an important funding source for terrorist organizations, organized crime, and rogue states. Therefore, tracking and disrupting these networks is an important national security goal, but it is often difficult to accomplish because of the clandestine nature of these transactions. The authors of this report aim to track these networks through open-source data. They pair this research with analytical frameworks that could help policymakers and law enforcement personnel better respond to these issues while also providing advocates, experts, and researchers in the field with a set of grounded estimates and methodologies to build on in their future research. The authors demonstrate how these methods can be used to map a specific illicit market and discuss how these methodologies can be reused in similar projects. Funding Funding for this research was made possible by the independent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures .................................................................................................vii Tables .................................................................................................. ix Summary .............................................................................................. xi Acknowledgments ................................................................................. xvii Abbreviations ........................................................................................ xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Objectives and Approach .............................................................................. 3 Organization of This Report ......................................................................... 4 CHAPTER TWO Antiquities Trafficking and Its Role in Financing Terrorism ................................ 5 Issues with the Current Approach for Assessing the Antiquities Market’s Relationship to Terrorist Funding............................................................... 7 Mass Excavations and Organized Theft ............................................................12 Constructing a Global View of the Antiquities Trade ............................................16 Summary ...............................................................................................21 CHAPTER THREE Smuggling Networks and Sales Channels: Results from Interviews ...................... 23 Interview with a Kurdish Smuggler ................................................................ 23 Reports from Syria: Results of Interviews ..........................................................29 Turkish Dealer Interviews ............................................................................33 Other Trafficking Pathways ........................................................................ 38 Fakes and Forgeries ...................................................................................39 Secondary Distribution Networks ..................................................................39 Summary ...............................................................................................41 v vi Tracking and Disrupting the Illicit Antiquities Trade with Open-Source Data CHAPTER FOUR Antiquities Trafficking Online .................................................................. 43 Dark and Deep Websites for Antiquities Sales ................................................... 44 Facebook as a Platform for Online Illicit Markets ................................................52 Structural Analysis of Online Markets .............................................................63 Summary ...............................................................................................67 CHAPTER FIVE Measuring the International Trade in Antiquities ............................................69 Sales Channels for Antiquities .......................................................................70 Summary .............................................................................................. 84 CHAPTER SIX Policy Responses to Illicit Trafficking and Future Research ............................... 87 Summary of Key Findings .......................................................................... 87 Proposed New Policy Solutions Based on Findings ...............................................89 Aligning Policy Responses with Market Characteristics: Recommendations for Policy Actions Against Antiquities Networks in the Middle East ................................ 92 Responding to Illicit Networks ......................................................................95 Directions for Future Research ..................................................................... 97 APPENDIXES A. Archaeological Looting in Historical Perspective ........................................ 99 B. Detecting Suspicious Dealers Using Rare Indicator Coins ............................ 111 C. A Supply and Demand Theory of the Antiquities Market ............................. 125 References .......................................................................................... 133 About the Authors ................................................................................ 145 Figures S.1. Comparative Schemas of Market Structure ......................................... xiv S.2. Perceived Versus Actual Characteristics of the Antiquities Market ............... xiv 2.1. Looting of Apamea, Syria ...............................................................14 2.2. Total Reported Antiquities Imports to Various Countries from Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates .....18 2.3. Imports from Turkey of Antiquities and Archaeological or Ethnographic Pieces (Harmonized Codes 9706 and 9705), as Reported by Select Countries ..19 2.4. Reported Antiquities Imports from the UAE ....................................... 20 3.1. Kurdistan Region of Iraq .............................................................. 24 3.2. Objects Sold to Local Buyers .......................................................... 27 3.3. Kurdish Smuggler’s Reported Destinations for Smuggled Antiquities .......... 30 3.4. Interview Locations ..................................................................... 34 4.1. Coins Advertised for Sale on Telegram ...............................................51 4.2. A Global Phenomenon: British and Turkish Members Describing Similar Coins ...............................................................53 4.3. Example of Professional Photography Repurposed in a Facebook Group ........55 4.4. Example of Professional Photography Repurposed in Arabic Treasure-Hunting Site .................................................................. 56 4.5. Online Guides for Identifying Hidden Tombs .......................................57 4.6. Example of Amateur Photography of Site Exploration Posted on Facebook .....58 4.7. Sample Product Offering on Arabic-Language Facebook Group ..................59 4.8. Facebook Discussion of Antiquities Sales on Turkish-Language Group ......... 60 4.9. Image of Fake Coin and Die Used to Create It Shared on a Facebook Group ...62 4.10. Comparative Schemas of Market Structure ......................................... 64 4.11. Dark Web Market Niche ...............................................................65 4.12. Telegram Market Niche ................................................................ 66 4.13. Facebook Market Niche .................................................................67 5.1. Number of Antiquities Sold by Auction Houses .....................................71
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