<<

GOP Stalks

EDITED BY MICHAEL HARRINGTON New Majority March 1981 Vol. IX No. 3 $1 By Jim Chapin T IS NOW ALMOST A CUCHt THAT .. the key to whether 1980 turns out INSIDE to be a realignment lies not so much in the returns them­ selves, but in the events of the next ' Planning for Doom, p. 4 two years. Having said that, it re­ mains true that much information Supply siders say they have a new formula. contained in the actual returns and But they have more in common with Keynes in the polls of 1980 has not been fully than they want to admit. Mark Levinson raises teased out. And any realignment, if it the key question: Since economic planning is comes, will clearly build on economic, inevitable, who will do it? social, and political facts that already ex­ ist, rather than being created anew in the '­ NAM-DSOC Merger Talks, p. 6 next few years. The left's history has been one of fission Looking back, then, on the returns rather than fusion. Now the New .American of 1980 from what seems the vast dis­ Movement and DSOC are holding unity talks. tance of four months, what can we learn ? Harry Fleischman assesses the situation. First, it is now obvious just how massive Carter's defeat was. His was the fifth Special Report: Tenants, p. 8 worst showing by a Democratic candidate in the 29 since the Civil War, TbomaaNut Tenants are an emerging constituency that and the second worst by an incumbent can play a major role in progressive . President ever. (Only poor Taft, with John Atlas and Peter Dreier examine the T.R. taking half his party's vote, did country's most successful tenant organization worse.) In 19 states and the of and suggest strategies for other groups. Columbia, he ran worse than George McGovern, and, in fact, got a lower Arms Race Madness, p. 12 percentage of the vote than McGovern '' A Republican party overall in the 39 states outside the Con­ One of the most consistent leaders in the majority remains an . In a number of Western states, struggle to halt the arms race is Olof Palme, such as Utah and Arizona, he received elusive goal. ''· leader of the Swedish Democratic Party. Pat­ the lowest vote percentage of any Demo­ rick Lacefield asks him about the next steps. cratic presidential candidate in history. On the Left, p. 14 Defections from Carter between 1976 and 1980 had a strong sectional A peace conference, primary election, relig­ tinge. The 25 states where he lost the ious socialist gathering ... DSOCers have not most votes contained 18 of the 19 states been caught in a winter slump. west of the line from North Dakota to Texas (excluding Hawaii) . On a state to states went Republican in all elections but majority. The other cwo? The District of state basis, interestingly, his vote correl­ that of 1964, and another ten went Re­ Columbia and JU'Wlii. "Iii ated not only to 1976, but to Adlai Stev­ publican in six of the eight elections. On What about the rest of the Repub­ ~ enson's 1952 showing. In fact, his per­ the other hand, only Hawaii has voted for lican party ? Herc, che pic:rure for them is id centage of the two-party vote overall (ex­ the Democrats all but once, and only West less rosy. They aauaL; received a minor­ SC cluding Anderson, Clark, Commoner, Virginia all but twice. ity of the vote for Senate at the same II etc.) was only one-tenth of a point off Bluntly put, with a quasi-solid West time that they gained l::? Senate scats. The ti Stevenson's showing in 1952. and the addition of such normally-Repub­ malapportionmcnt of the Senate has Although Carter's showing was par­ lican bastions as most of the farm states, as never had a major effect on the political "'u ticularly bad, the Democrats have a per­ well as Virginia, and New Hamp­ Jines in this country, because in previous manent problem that runs beyond a par­ shire, Republicans have only to carry a alignments the sections involved (usually ii ticular presidential candidate. The Re­ few other states to win presidential elec­ North-South) did not reflect a large­ SI publicans have now won five of the last tions. The key, of course, to this Republi­ state/ small-state division. But now they a eight presidential elections, four by land­ can bloc is California, and that offers the oo. Most of those 29 generally Republi­