SCOBELL DING SAUNDERS THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY HAROLD AND CONTINGENCY PLANNING IN CHINA THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY LIBERATION AND THE PEOPLE’S CONTINGENCY PLANNINGCONTINGENCY IN CHINA Edited by Andrew Scobell, Arthur S. Ding, Phillip C. Saunders, and Scott W. Harold THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY AND CONTINGENCY PLANNING IN CHINA THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY AND CONTINGENCY PLANNING IN CHINA Edited by Andrew Scobell, Arthur S. Ding, Phillip C. Saunders, and Scott W. Harold National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. 2015 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this book may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews. Published in the United States by National Defense University Press 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64) Suite 2500 Fort Lesley J. McNair Washington, DC 20319 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Scobell, Andrew, editor of compilation. Title: The People’s Liberation Army and contingency planning in China / edited by Andrew Scobell, Arthur S. Ding, Phillip C. Saunders, and Scott W. Harold. Description: Washington, D.C. : National Defense University Press, [2015] | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2015038587 | ISBN 9780996824903 (pbk. : alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: Military planning—China. | China. Zhongguo ren min jie fang jun. | National security—China. | Internal security—China. | China—Military policy. | Sea-power—China—History—21st century. | China—Strategic aspects. Classification: LCC UA835 .P3773 2015 | DDC 355/.033551—dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015038587 Book design by Jamie Harvey, U.S. Government Publishing Office CONTENTS List of Illustrations ...........................................................viii Acknowledgments ............................................................ix INTRODUCTION The PLA and Contingency Planning in China .................................1 Phillip C. Saunders I. Thinking and Planning for Contingencies CHAPTER 1 The PLA and Contingency Planning ..........................................15 Mark Cozad CHAPTER 2 PLA Observations of U.S. Contingency Planning: What Has It Learned? .........................................................33 Marcelyn L. Thompson CHAPTER 3 China Plans for Internal Unrest: People’s Armed Police and Public Security Approaches to “Mass Incidents” ........................55 Jonathan Walton CHAPTER 4 Civilian Authorities and Contingency Planning in China ...................85 Catherine Welch CONTENTS CHAPTER 5 Converting the Potential to the Actual: Chinese Mobilization Policies and Planning ............................... 107 Dean Cheng CHAPTER 6 Employment of National-Level PLA Assets in a Contingency: A Cross-Strait Conflict as Case Study ....................................... 135 Mark A. Stokes II. Domestic Contingencies CHAPTER 7 China’s Armed Forces Respond to Internal Disaster Relief: Assessing Mobilization and Effort .......................................... 159 Jeffrey Engstrom and Lyle Morris CHAPTER 8 PLA Response to Widespread Internal Unrest in the Han Homeland ....................................................... 185 Ma Chengkun III. Border Contingencies CHAPTER 9 The PLA and Cross-Border Contingencies in North Korea and Burma .... 205 Thomas Woodrow CHAPTER 10 PLA Contingency Planning and the Case of India .......................... 225 Larry M. Wortzel CHAPTER 11 Like a Good Neighbor: Chinese Intervention Through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization ......................... 251 Ben Lowsen vi CONTENTS IV. Maritime Contingencies CHAPTER 12 The PLA and Near Seas Maritime Sovereignty Disputes ................... 279 Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang CHAPTER 13 The PLA and Far Seas Contingencies: Chinese Capabilities for Noncombatant Evacuation Operations .......... 301 Michael S. Chase CHAPTER 14 PLA Navy Planning for Out of Area Deployments .......................... 321 Kristen Gunness and Samuel K. Berkowitz About the Contributors ..................................................... 349 Index ........................................................................ 355 vii CONTENTS Illustrations Figures 6.1. General Staff Department Organizational Structure .................. 137 7.1. Demonstrated Mobilization Capacity of the Four Case Studies. .170 7.2. Manpower Effort of the Four Case Studies ..............................171 7.3. Number of Chinese Armed Forces Personnel Engaged in Disaster Relief Efforts Over Time by Disaster .............................171 7.4. Demonstrated Mobilization Capacity and Mobilization Capacity Curve of Select Disaster and Warfighting Contingencies ........ 173 7.5. Manpower Effort of Select Disaster and Warfighting Contingencies ..................................................176 11.1. Security Domains ...................................................... 259 Tables 2.1. Key Terms Related to “Contingency Planning” in Chinese and English .......................................................35 4.1. Committees of the State Council Emergency Management Office ......90 4.2. Organizational Chart of the China National Commission for Disaster Reduction ........................................................91 4.3. Contingency Support Requirements of the National Emergency Response Plan .................................................................93 7.1. Instances of Disasters by Persons Affected in China, August 1985–October 2012 ...................................................161 7.2. Types of Disasters and Affected Military Regions, August 1985–October 2012 .................................................. 162 7.3. China’s Armed Forces Disaster Mobilization .......................... 168 7.4. Armed Forces Disaster and Warfighting Mobilization ................. 173 7.5. 2008 Winter Storms ......................................................178 7.6. 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. .179 7.7. 2010 Yushu Earthquake ..................................................179 7.8. 2010 Zhouqu Mudslides ................................................. 180 11.1. Shanghai Cooperation Organization Exercises ....................... 262 12.1. PLAN Activity in Times of Near Seas Sovereignty Disputes .......... 286 12.2. PRC Maritime Law Enforcement Agencies (prior to 2013). 291 viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This volume grew out of a conference on “Contingency Planning, PLA style” co-sponsored by Taiwan’s Council of Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS), RAND, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), and National Defense University (NDU). RAND hosted the conference at its Arlington, Virginia, office. The editors gratefully acknowledge the intellectual contribution of Michael Swaine (CEIP) in shaping the agenda and recruiting paper writers, discussants, and panelists, and the financial support of the four sponsoring organizations. The editors also thank the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office for hosting a dinner in honor of the conference participants. Yi-su Yang and Polly Shen (CAPS), Cortez Cooper, Lyle Morris, and Heather McLendon (RAND), and Christopher D. Yung, Michael Glosny, Terry Min Jie Zeng, and Deborah Jefferson (NDU) all provided support in organizing the original conference. Dr. Saunders also thanks Gerald Faber, Donald Mosser, Mollie Murphy, Jeanette Tolbert, and Christopher D. Yung (NDU) and Martha Robinson and Patrick Shaw (Joint Staff J7) for their assistance in obtaining per- mission for NDU’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs to co-sponsor the conference. In addition to the chapter authors and editors, Ken Allen, Tai Ming Cheung, Bernard Cole, Cortez Cooper, John Corbett, T.X. Hammes, Lonnie Henley, Frank G. Hoffman, John Landry, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Shen Ming-Shih, Yitzak Shichor, Paul Stares, Michael Swaine, Christopher D. Yung, and Yen Tiehlin all provided comments or participated in discussions that improved the chapters in this book. Terry Min Jie Zeng and Adam Jankowski drafted summaries of the chapters for the introduction. Mr. Jankowski also provided additional research to help update Dr. Ma Chengkun’s chapter. Drew Casey provided invaluable assistance in reformatting the chapters, tracking down stray references, and standardizing English and Chinese language references. The editors thank NDU Press Director Dr. William Eliason and Executive Editor Dr. Jeffrey Smotherman for their creativity in squeezing this book into a narrow publication window, Lisa Yambrick and Jane Floyd for copyediting ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS the manuscript, and Erin L. Sindle, Lisa Yambrick, Julia Bowie, and Capt Adam Greer, USAF, for proofreading. Brianna Cappelletti compiled the index. Jamie Harvey at the Government Publishing Office designed the book. The editors gratefully acknowledge financial support for publication of this book from NDU’s Program on Irregular Warfare and Special Operations Studies. x INTRODUCTION The PLA and Contingency Planning in China Phillip C. Saunders ll militaries have a responsibility to plan for contingencies, and Chi- na’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is no exception. APLA contingency planning takes place primarily within the General Staff Department’s (GSD’s) First Department, also known as the GSD