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National Intelligence Daily Wednesday 3 July 1991

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National Intelligence Daily Wednesday 3 July 1991 .~.. - --· --·---------'---- b (3) b (3) -- b {3) _b (3) .·,.' ,. -~ ..)~'.f; .,\...·~ ~ . App:;:-o7 eA for R.e geggse Date .JuN______1 .:.. _, ~''"-. - -,,.~- ::,~ . ' . • - , : J ...... ' ., . ' / .~··:·;51·;_-:.;.._-· ....- -~----,....:_ - ~ • ~ J • • ' ·.,,, . Warning Page Deleted B-3 ,-:_ . - F : ...... .....: . ,. s ,_:> ·' • • • • ... .. • ... • h • ··,, ., ,-, ,-, ,- "• . .. ' . .... ~: •• -<- ·-:J .... I I 1::> ,. " . ..; . - . .. "' - ·-·· . .. ....... -.-· .... .:.. .. :.....:..::...:..:.:::_,;__;...:_. -~--··-.--_·-_ ....- ..._,; __ -'---- ... ._,;.·~--~--~~-~-·---~·...,. __ ~-· .---~-·--~---"-~----·~--· ~-· .. --~~---~-· .. ~-:--::_--_-:".-~ --···-·~--~- .. _-__- ..-. -------.- . --· - ·-~····----··~·····-,-··· ..... , ......... -·----··--··-··----·-·· ... ······ . b (3) ---~ Contents \ ,_,. Yugoslu·ia: Situation Report .L .USSR: Situation Report. ·:·"'-- . Jraq::Ku"·ail: Situation Report ._. Jsra~I: Warily-Watch fog Sou(her:n Lctfariori= ----, ..~···~-:--~-.---·-.·--··---·7 ··-- · ·· Peru: Treading Carcfull}' on Couritcrnarcotks Polic}· 8 · \i . ,.. - ·. : ..• , ._._..,..._ :..-- . ·: - . Notes 9-- 9'-. -..ii!Ji-~~~~~~~~~- .J 0' 10 In Brief -·· .. 11 Spedal Analyses - ..,......,..-_' [ - ..-..i b (1) b (3)1 C :...• Iraq: Failing Marks c:m-G:'W Inspection · ..... ~ IJ ,~,:_·::... .· I ·r:~l•111-'--~·b_c_t·'-· b_ .. <~3.__>· : ______ ._14 ·• t]SSR~Cuba: Trade and Ec_o~nomic 'Alq ·_oeclinirig ·· 15 . ::.:\".,"\....... · ., . ~ ,:......, : ~- .·__ ---o.-j .. ,- - .. \ _· .. ,_. , ~-· · .... ·~""' . i . ~-· . ." - : :.; -.: '.• --; l=t ,._. ,-, . • .. - -·-· ...... ~:: ·. ~. : •:: .... ~ .:... -<- I : ' • -::J0 I ' ~ • • . .•z.,; •• CROATIA I : Adria{ic 1-:"> \ \. · ..._: ,· ~ ·\ ,,~ Sea Italy··.- - L.,, ·. ·.' -i;-..:. .Reputllrc bounaary Aut~nomous ·.,-•• b•un~al)" ~ C> ·, Re,u1bhc or •Ytonomoua area c1p~l•I -.. ·~ ·-~ -;;:, - <~- -- -~~~~' .. --------· ..... ...;..;;.;....;.......;_,,_,...--_;;...----~---------' ________________________--··· .-~ ............ _______________ _,_ , ______ ____ _ --~-~~~~-·-,__ .., ..,, •• ,_,.~. ___ ,,. __ _, ..... --~·-·• ----- - -·~·:·c.- ··II I b(S} "_""':--·: The-Neth~rlands~ current president of the-EC, issued.a st~t~mcnt.on betialf-0fth~ Community yesterday that urged all parties to respect the ceasc-fir:e and refr::iin from_ ·violence but did riot call for- Yugoslav unity. Most EC members have indkated .tfiey will resist even oblique·criticism of Slovenia or Croatia.at the CSCE meeting in P~ague foday: -·. :·· .;,. .. : . ' .. - t· __ ---- .. · -- -____ - --- -- - ~----·::.._ ___- __ ~ ..... .,.-.... - ---. ··-:- .... , -··-·--~,,..--"- EC actions in Xugoslavia have been an-unprecedentedly Qirect Com~unity.engagementin a : :-· foreign dispute, and that involvement appears set td deeper1:-Geririaii Foreign Minister'. - ·· ·o-· • · Genscher proposed -611 Monday that the EC send civilia11,observers to monitor the cease-fire . an_d ~roopfwit~dra;v~I~~ The.'o~hcr Ilffi~er..ibersBolfthde Ec· bf. d'Lh~vbc _agreeddto send a . _··_b· c·~-)· · m1ss1on .o senior ~ore1gn mm1stry_ o __ eta1 s tQ e gra .e. 2 agre , an _ JU 1.1ana to ay to .:> prepare ~he way .for the obser_Vers._ Dutch For:igri ~inister vfn ~n Brock plan_s ~o req_u~st ~- ---- n -----·- - - • thbat CSLf": sa T_lctlo~ thh_: obsed[Yers'. ~om~dcGS~~ 1:11e!l}~e!" _, _lt)support· sfiedndmg rruhtary ·' .. _.•·b __ ---_._(_ ).· __ ·· ·-- o servers m 1 me wit proce ures spe1 le out;,_m 1asi-year s agreement on con ence:- and 3 security-building 111easures. ·· · ·- · · - , · - · · / 0 -·-:~:-:.: - - Slovenian and croatian leaders h~ve t~quest~Joreign ·mffitary and civilian ob:Senrers to· monitor the crisis, and' PrcsiQen~~Mesic ans!.Ppme·Mlnist~r Markovk have h_in_ted they would agree.to such· a presenc~;.:: The beleagu.~~ federal Army may also-be w11lmg tc.-.accept observers in order to discourage attacks b)'. Sla'Venfan and Croatian ·territorial forces as its· . ., . lfroops attempt to return to-their garrisons.~:..~.;,--:. -'. ·'- -,~ ·:. ·.;-· :_. ·\ .... _, --. .",. ·: - ...... -· ,:,. ·.. :. >-:-~---- .. ~-~ ti(sr' ,' L ·. _;_ '·( -:--- .. ,,_ r_:>-.:...-~-:-. - .: __ . ~ .. ) ·- -~- i --:.> - ~-- ... .c • _;~~ --- -~~-----.. ···· -·---- ···---:..- -- -·· -----·~·------ b (3) ~·uGOSLAVIA: Situation Report ' - . Yugosltn•-po/iticians appe(lr to, be shifting toward recognizing Slo•·eni11n' Independence, but militlll)' attitud.es·are less clear; commanders are ~=~:7;~1lbf{:o»e~a~)c'.i~ns a~~!"~!l~ .f!ro({dening ~°.nfli~t in ·.· ,,. -· ···- . ; ... Slo,·enian Senior Serbian officials yc:Sterda)· urged,~~.:: fdcral government to Independence accept Slovenia·s independence and .calied fo; the rciurn from Gaining Ground Slovenia of Serbian conscripts. Parents of Serbian contcripts stormed - the republic assembly to demand thei• sons return' within four days. The leadership of Serbia's an:)· Montc.""egro has concurred that disintegration is inevitable. condcmn·.:d the use of force, and called for recognition of Slovenia as a ••foreign state." The-_Macedonian . government has told ·the Army no more recruits or reservists will be allowed to ~c:ave. the republ.ic. an~ Basnia~-leaders havc5o~cmned Army.mob1hzauon efforts in their r:epubhc. ( I : \"I · -;,. .~nger: in the . ::\ lilitaiy lncre~sing b (3) '"-''·'· . ' ~~'''~"''""" .. ::.::;. ' . ~,, . ",· ·.. ·... · 3 · rnlY leaders are increasingly angry and humiliated at :~~.JJ:~t;t~cir fai ur~ to acI:ifo,:"c even limited objecti:v,cs, inability to return ,''\:' ';\'.')f !l-~c~r units safel);-to their gar~i~ns, and w~a~ they see ~s ~lovenian \ -~ -~ comFnued - I, b (3) . ?....... -. , • . , . J ,-, t=t ,, ..... .. .. .. ,• "'""\ ~I~ I I • . ~ . ' ,, . < + -· ., • -· - ~ " . • ~ • .'I , , • I• .. --- -·. ·- ·- ·----····---·--····--- . ··~···· --- ..• . ....... ~, ........... .. b(3) violati0;is of the cease-fire. They could ti):· to escalate thc.conflict:in ~ .--: ·' de.spite the sa&g..i!1···a.r.1 ..1 e. their fo. ... .... ...)? .. ' ! mchnat1ons~lo':eni~ of most pohap~a~c_ntly~ t1cal leadCfS_• . , .... ·. : b.~f. (3) .··rc~.5. ..• . ~· l"l.~~: : .. ·.~L.,,,:.,:, . · · Army Problems in ' ·, . • ' . :·:--- , -~':¥~~:'.:::".::~;~.:·~--'.' ~ ·":'::::.'~":"··:;:.~:=-:::=~~:''.'.'~;~ ~::~:. Croatia · ' Protesters in Zagreb yesterday thre~molotov cocktails,~t.fed¢ral · · tanks they believed were heading for ~lovcni~ and 'froops,fircd "j 0 t~~ ~rowd, killing two anc:t wo.unain1r othe_rs~ . (Sf·--------· c1t1zens have erected bar:1;1cades around the Zagrebgarrison. 1v1 1a s ... in another large garrison townblocked a column of federal tanks_ : withotit reponed blOodshed .. Croatiari leaders said the.'republic'docs not want war with the Army bunhreatened to reconsider ifattacks on Slovenia: contin•Je. Ethnic violence contiilues in-Serb-po I b(1) bJ~;," ·-=· . .. ,. .. .. -· ··. , .-.· ... b3 ..........••conl'!;d inCroatia,:whc;;~:popular hostility toward the ArmSr ma:; be beyond the control of the leadership. could be much more dangerous than in Slovenia. A.confron·tation in Croatia would . face the Army with battle.;astnde 'its supply.lines to Slovenia.. ... .. Resistance mi&!tt.!?e_:!~ss weJtorgan_ized than in.S.loveriia,.bu,t.it would be-more vicious b~cause Croat-s~ee the Army as the too~ o(t,heir. · . Anny has been unable to-maintain .order., . ..... hnostthe . b{1) b (3) cenainly are made up largely.of Serb ~roop·s after recent reserve . a~liif§bibly ~~.:~-~o,re :,~!iabl~ than t~ose in,Slovenia. b (3) ·irMYt ' ·~,.·· - -_,, ., ~~~':::::..', .·. >.,._: . - -....... ~ -........._ ' '- .-. : : ·. ,,,,: ,__ .. '"\...., ''t ' \!-~--~~'.\" ........ ~. 1\ " :c):· ~ .. ,·,, .\ .. : <>;.·, .• ' '' ,J ·-"...-=:---c .. .., ... ~ .. ; ., .:.· . ~ '".··.. - . .. .... .. ' . =t ,-, ,_;, , :· ·. I• • • I • • • q • • • ' '· · "' _,_, I (j I . · · · · : ·:, .. .. ... ,. ·. .... .. ' ....... ,>·~- -~----~----------------- b'3 USSR: Situation Report . The center has mo•·ed to contain blq_ck•/Hret actions in the Baltic: -· republics, R11ssia has upped the ante.. f!n. eco·,·""~.·.. issues, a. n.d the Communist Pll"!J' is talking about -r_efornfin~.~- · t3 • b (3) . .. ' .. .. .. Black Be1et . - yesterday. General Kalachcv, the ch.lcfof . Commanders in . the Main Police Directorate of the Interior Ministry (MVD), said that \'ilnius )leprJmanded the center did not sanction the recent black beret operation in Lithuania and that such actions would harm Soviet foreign policy interests and ·make things worse for Russians in the Baltic republics: He wam.ed that officials res onsible for further·such actions would be b(3) dismissed. ,. Vilnius military garrison commander and the B1:dtic iv1s1on commander-have been transferred. Kalachev also said that Colonel Goncharenko, the MVD .~ representath·e to the Baltic repu~lics _an.d+] . !ff! an activist i·rt'ihe b·.(a) procenter In_tcrfront movement m Latvia, woul . : .. cad a newtf~~\lP stationed in :Riga to co~t~oJ blac~ beret acth'ities. \ 1 I) (3) UfJW'fb t I he tran~fer ~ft.h~ two ~officers and the sharp criticism oi­ ·. · local blac:k beret leaders proba6ly was meant to show Gorbachev's · : commitment to restraining violence and to reinforce the center's . · · ·control over units-in the Baltic region. but Goncharenko's · appointment suggests tfte-c;:.enter will continue its low-level harassment of the Baltie ·republics. b (3) . ' . ·.. ~~~~-.... - ' ': ~ ' .. Ne~'" Russia-Center At a recent sessfoh'of'"th~ssia~ Repubii~ ~ui)rerne Soviet, Russian · Tension On!r . Premier\ivan Silayev'announ~d ,that th~ republic would soon take -'"Economic Issues jurisdict~on of all
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