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ZURCHER BEITRAGE ~ Zur Sicherheitspolitik Und Konfliktforschung _ZURCHER BEITRAGE ~ zur Sicherheitspolitik und Konfliktforschung Heft Nr. 21 Stephan Kux Decline and Reemergence of Soviet Federalism Forschungsstelle fur Sicherheitspolitik und Konfliktanalyse Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule 8092 Zurich © 1991 Forschungsstelle fUr Sicherheitspolitik und Konfliktanalyse, ETH Zentrum, 8092 ZUrich Aile Rechte vorbehalten. Nachdruck und fotomechanische Wiedergabe, auch auszugsweise, nur mit schriftlicher Genehmigung der Forschungsstelle. Die in den "ZUrcher Beitragen zur Sicherheitspolitik und Konfliktforschung" wiederge­ gebenen Auffassungen stellen ausschliesslich die Ansichten der betreffenden Autoren dar. ISBN 3-905641-21-6 StephanKux Decline and Reemergence of Soviet Federalism Table of Contents Preface............................................................................................................ 111 1. Introduction.............................................................................................. 1 2. Federalism defined.................................................................................. 4 2.1. Seven Elements ..... .......................... ......................... ............. .. ... ..... .... 4 . 2.2. Shades of Federation........................................................................... 5 2.3. Federation vs. Confederation.............................................................. 7 2.4. Political vs. Economic Union............................................................... 8 3. Gorbachev's ''N'ew Federalism" ............................................. :............... 9 3.1. The Four Pillars ofGorbachev's Federalism...................................... 9 3.2. Division ofPower................................................................................. 10 3.2.1. The Contractual Principle of Federalism........................................ 10 3.2.2. The Framework Approach- A Matryoshka Doll............................. 11 3.3. Representation and Participation.................................................... 12 3.4. Gorbachev's "Strong Center"-Philosophy ........................................... 15 3.5. The Monopoly of the Central Apparatus .................. :......................... 17 3.6. Instability and Lack of Legitimacy..................................................... 17 3.7. State ofLaw or Constitutional Crisis?.............................................. 18 3.7.1. The Constitutional Oversight Committee....................................... 18 3. 7 .2. Informal Consultations and Bargaining......................................... 19 3.7.3. The Emerging Constitutional Crisis................................................ 20 3.8. The New Treaty of Union.................................................................... 21 3.9. Endzeit: The Collapse of the Central, Soviet-Type System............... 24 4. The Economic Dimension ....................................................................··· 26 4.1. The Disintegration of the "National Economic Complex"................. 26 4.2. Economic Collapse............................................................................... 28 5. Proto- or Ersatz-Federalism.................................................................. 31 5.1. The Genesis ofFederalism.................................................................. 31 5.2. Republican Sovereignty....................................................................... 32 5.2.1. New Centers of Power...................................................................... 32 11 5.2.2. Republican Sovereignty and Economic Instability......................... 33 5.2.3. The Republics' Nationalities Problems............................................ 35 5.3. Horizontal Ties ............................... ................ ......... ............................ 38 5.3.1. A Patchwork of Treaties among the Republics............................... 38 5.3.2. From Soviet Union to Economic Union?......................................... 40 5.3.3. Limits of Horizontal Ties.................................................................. 41 5.4. Inter-Agency Coordination.................................................................. 42 5.5. Coalition Politics.................................................................................. 43 5.5.1. Power-Sharin·g .................................................................................. 43 5.5.2. Central Coalition.............................................................................. 44 5.5.3. Co-Imperial Coalition....................................................................... 45 5.5.4. Vertical Coalition.............................................................................. 4 7 5.5.5. The "Nine-Plus-One" Agreement..................................................... 47 5.5.6. Horizontal Coalition......................................................................... 48 5.5.7. The Limits of Coalition..................................................................... 49 5.6. The Emergence of a Federalist Political Culture............................... 50 6. The Developments after the August Coup.......................................... 51 6.1. The August Coup................................................................................. 51 6.2. A Velvet Revolution............................... .............................................. 53 6.3. The Reorganization of the State Structures....................................... 54 6.4. The Treaty on the Economic Union ............................ ;....................... 56 6.5. Confederation and Stability: The Uncertain Future......................... 59 7. Foreign and Military Mfairs ................................................................. 66 7 .1. The Growing Role of the Republics in Foreign Affairs . .. .. 66 7.2. National or Territorial Armies.......................................... .................. 70 7.3. "Neutralization" of the USSR?................................................. ............ 74 8. Possible Western Responses.................................................................. 74 8.1. The "Helsinkization" of the Soviet Republics..................................... 74 8.2. Selective Relations............................................................................... 75 8.3. Relations at the Subnational Level.................................................... 76 8.4. Non-Governmental Relations ............................................................. 76 8.5. Subregional Cooperation and Integration.......................................... 77 8.6. The Integration of the Republics ........................................................ 77 9. Conclusions .................. ..... ................................ .................................... .. .. 78 111 Preface I welcome the opportunity to publish an essay by Dr. Stephan Kux, Swiss political scientist, who is back in Zurich after a three-year research-stay in the United States, where he worked as a visiting fellow of the Ford Foundation at Columbia University, New York (1987-90) and as a resident fellow at the Institute for East-West Security Studies in New York (1988- 90). The dramatic developments in Eastern Europe and in the former Soviet Union bring rapid changes of political conditions with them. As the topic of federalism is at the center of the actual developments in the Soviet Union, the careful discussion of what Kux calls "proto-federalism" helps to understand the enormous complexities the Soviet leadership has to cope with in its search for new structures. Zurich, 14 december 1991 Prof. Dr. Kurt Spillmann Director, Center·for Security Studies and Conflict Research 1 1. Introduction In the morning of August 19, Vice President Gennadii Yanaev announced that he was assuming power "in connection with Mikhail Gorbachev's inability, for reasons of health, to carry out his duties as president of the USSR" .1 This announcement started a coup d'etat by some Party hawks, generals, and industrial managers. The putsch failed. It remains but a strange episode in the USSR's protracted struggle for economic reform and political reorganization. The coup served as a catalyst for reforms. In the aftermath, the nature of Soviet politics has changed fundamentally. The surprising defeat of the putsch leaders, the subsequent change in power and reorganization of state structures are commonly termed revolutionary. The imme­ diate victims of the so-called Second Russian Revolution are the Communist party, which has been suspended, the official title of the country - USSR, which has been changed into Union of Soviet States (USS)2, and the two catch-words of the Gorba­ chev period - perestroika and glasnost, which have disappeared from official language. After six years of "pre-perestroika", the Soviet Union is finally entering a stage of real, radical reforms of the economic and political system. Yet revolution in a complex, heterogenous, multi-ethnic empire, is hardly simple, linear and straightforward, but takes complicated, compounded and protracted forms. 3 The argument of the paper is that both the event of the coup as well as its defeat can only be explained in the light of the radical changes in the structures of power and the nature of politics in the USSR under Gorbachev's reign. These past developments al~o provide some indication of the current and future changes in the USSR. In the last years, the Soviet Union has gone through a "slow-motion revolu­ tion" from below,
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