Balancing Freshwater Inflows in a Changing Environment Our Project
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Our Project . Freshwater inflows: Determining flow regimes in the face of land use, climate change, and other unknowns Balancing Freshwater Inflows OBJECTIVE 1 OBJECTIVE 2 OBJECTIVE 3 OBJECTIVE 4 Collaborate with Develop shared Examine the effects of Improve inputs to the intended users to systems learning land use and climate TxBLEND salinity identify and conduct a among the local in a Changing Environment change on freshwater model of the Texas priority research stakeholders and inflows to the Water Development project related to a scientists for Guadalupe and Board. focal species construction of a Mission‐Aransas. mentioned in the system dynamics BBEST report. model. Science to Policy Timeline Forecasted Texas Commission precipitation rates on Environmental • Introduce project to intended users (i.e., workshops, interviews) • Gather data for land use and climate scenario analysis Quality • Begin circulation study Year 1 • Identify focal species study with intended users Human water demand with • Begin mediated modeling changes in land use and More informed climate users for BBEST, • Analyze land use and climate scenarios BBASC, & public Texas Water • Continue circulation study comment • Collect data for priority research project Development Year 2 • Update intended users through a series of workshops Board • Expand mediated modeling effort TxBLEND Indicator • Summarize results of land use and climate change analysis species • Analyze and summarize circulation datasets • Analyze and summarize results from priority research topic • Discuss results with intended users Year 3 • Disseminate results to wider audience Computer model Project Team Members Zack Darnell, Ph.D. Applied Science Team Kristin Hicks Project Team Paulami Banerjee Collaboration Team 1 Circulation Objective 2 Freshwater inflows: Circulation Seahorse current meters Tilt Current Meters INCLINOMETER Deployment / Retrieval Methods PVC stake base 1 Deployment Data Deployment Data Deployments: Stations: 15 in Aransas, 1 Copano, and 2345678 Mesquite Bays 9101112131415 June 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30123456 Deployment period: 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 2-3 weeks 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 July 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28293031123 Logging interval: 45678910 1 reading per 2 min 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 August 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Deployment Data Deployment Data Stick plot Stick plot Strong Northward flow Weak Northeastward flow Strong Southward flow Time Deployment Data Deployment Data Histogram Summary Histogram Summary 2 Deployment Data Histogram Summary Next Steps • Continue monitoring 15 stations • Determine flow patterns under different wind and tidal conditions • Relocate meters as needed • Buy additional meters Inform the TxBLEND Model 3 All Wind Onshore North (68%) Onshore South (24%) Offshore South (6%) Offshore North (3%) 4 9/16/2013 May 30, 2012 Workshop Everyone identifies their place in the estuary and shares ideas about Model Development important species, water circulation, and future September 12, 2013 land use. Port Aransas, TX Participants draw concept maps of management issues and challenges. September 2012 Workshops Individuals ask: Participants develop a What do I want/need from the estuary? qualitative model of the estuary. What concerns/worries do I have about the Part I: Individuals estuary’s ability to satisfy my wants/needs into the identify needs and future? concerns about the estuary into the future. This leads to specific Given these wants/needs; what single question is questions. most important for the model to answer? The results are the basis for model development. September 2012 Workshops Part II: Groups examine the May workshop model and ask questions the model might address. What concerns/worries do you have about the What do you want/need ? estuary’s ability to satisfy your wants/needs into the future? Category No. Category No. Sustainable Fisheries 16 Freshwater Inflows 22 Estuary Health 15 Estuary Health 14 Biodiversity 10 Human Impacts 14 Clean Water 7 Toxic Pollution 12 1 9/16/2013 Model Development Preliminary Model Question: Ask a specific question. How do freshwater inflows affect Keep it simple –you can always add. blue crab populations in the Mission‐Aransas and Copano Bay Use existing resources. system? January 17, 2013 Workshop April 16, 2013 Workshop First draft of the Blue Crab Model. Second draft of the Blue Crab Model. How is this model useful to you? How can the model How can it be be improved? improved? How can the model be used? Some of the updates you asked for… How you said this model might be used Make it easier to pause model to change parameters to for estuary management? approximate freshwater pulses and/or hurricane events. Harvest /fishery management Remove Whooping Cranes from model if they do not impact crab populations –make it real. Estuary health/restoration Make model output user friendly to help us understand Water flow issues model results better. Outreach Documentation added to ‘Info’ tab and technical details of the model are available online. Crane issues 2 9/16/2013 Today…. An updated version of the model based on your feedback in April. Opportunity to run simulations of this model. Provide feedback on ways this model can be useful to you. 3 9/16/2013 Focal species for determining freshwater inflow needs of the Focal Species Mission-Aransas Estuary We chose studies for this project with consideration to: • Input from stakeholders and interested parties Ed Buskey • Study recommendations Research Coordinator, Mission-Aransas made in the BBASC Work Plan NERR for Adaptive Management Marine Science Institute The University of Texas at Austin Adaptive Management Plan Adaptive Management Plan The BBASC Work Plan for Adaptive Management includes The BBASC Work Plan for Adaptive Management includes five focal species study recommendations five focal species study recommendations – Rangia clam investigations – Rangia clam investigations 1 1 – Life cycle habitat and salinity studies for blue crab and white shrimp – Life cycle habitat and salinity studies for blue crab and white shrimp – Distribution and abundance of marsh vegetation in the Guadalupe – Distribution and abundance of marsh vegetation in the Guadalupe estuary delta estuary delta 2 2 – Habitat suitability models for eastern oysters, blue crabs, and white – Habitat suitability models for eastern oysters, blue crabs, and white Priority Tier Priority shrimp Tier Priority shrimp – Role of Cedar Bayou in the exchange of water and meroplankton to – Role of Cedar Bayou in the exchange of water and meroplankton to 3 3 the Guadalupe estuary the Guadalupe estuary Presentation outline / line-up • Rangia studies: TAMUCC / ECSC field work – Maria Rodriguez & Jana Gray • Possible Rangia studies UTMSI Key Indicator Species in MANERR: • Blue Crab studies Rangia cuneata – Larval behavior / recruitment: Kimberly Bittler – Citizen science project update Presented by: – Blue crabs and whoopers: TAP lawsuit Jana Gray Maria C. Rodriguez 1 9/16/2013 Can Rangia shells reveal patterns of Pacific Geoduck: northeast Pacific Ocean salinity? • Rangia larvae have requirement for low salinity growth increments in – Growth rings of living clams reveal year born hinge plate • Rangia growth may be higher during periods of high flow/low salinity – Compare width of growth rings to records of salinity and inflow • Rangia mortality may be high during periods of low flow/high salinity – Once yearly growth patterns established, determine if dead Rangia (empty shells) died during periods of low/flow high salinity Bryan Black Annual water temperature in NE Pacific Freshwater mussels (Margaritifera, Gonidea) 3 geoduck growth-increment chronology instrumental record 2 1 0 -1 -2 Temperature anomaly Temperature 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 3 2 Year 1 0 1. geoduck an indicator of water temperature Anomaly -1 -2 freshwater mussel river discharge 2. long-lived: can use to hind-cast temperature -3 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year mussel growth an indicator of river discharge (flow) Rangia Bivalve shell chemistry records floods & temperature (Ben Walther) Is Rangia growth-increment width an indicator of Winter temperature, flow, or something else like salinity? Temps Flood 18 13 -3.0 Stable isotopes (δ O and δ C) from growth increments give time series of: Questions to answer: -1.5 • Temperature • Freshwater inflow 1) Longevity of Rangia in TX bays – 10-15 years 0.0 Reconstruct environmental 2) Are growth increments well-defined and able to be O (‰) 18 conditions from isotopic records measured? - Yes δ 3) Can growth chronologies be developed? 1.5 Example: oyster shell in Aransas Bay 4) If so, how do they relate to climate? 3.0 048121620 Distance from umbo (mm) Time Oldest Most recent Image: http://txmarspecies.tamug.edu 2 9/16/2013 Megalopal recruitment into the MANERR – Citizen Science Project The role of tidal salinity signals in blue crab recruitment in Mission-Aransas Estuary, TX Kimberly Bittler, Lindsay Scheef, Ed Buskey Volunteer-driven research Sampling sites • Daily sampling • Volunteers enable research that would otherwise be logistically impossible Lindsay Sheef data summary Lots of samples taken Lots left to count! 3 9/16/2013 Blue crab megalopae abundance Suction sampling Volunteer T-shirt design (Orth and Van Montfrans 1987) Lawsuit: The Aransas Project (TAP) vs. Court Case (continued) Shaw et. al • TAP sued TCEQ officials under the • TAP asked the court to declare that Endangered Species Act for an illegal “take” TCEQ’s water management